this is hilariously sad.....

CNBC and Fox News are literally laughing in this guys face for 2 years, and everything he said is true.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw

12/4/2008 11:24:40 AM

Man, Laffer really clowns himself to start the clip. That is the Laffer Curve guy right?

Ok, thats it, mancrush developed for Schiff.

[Edited on December 4, 2008 at 11:34 AM. Reason : .]

12/4/2008 11:28:40 AM

and combine what Ben Stein says here with his eXpelled evolution/ID shit, and apparently everything that's come out of his mouth in the past 10 years is completely untrue

12/4/2008 11:36:08 AM

everybody always rags on the guy saying "get your head out of the sand"

12/4/2008 12:21:45 PM

call it schaudenfreude, but I love it.


It reminds me of the old Will Rogers quote, "An economist is a man who, on any given day, can tell you what the economy is going to do, and his guess is liable to be as good as anyone else."

12/4/2008 12:31:54 PM

the long held the strong dollar policy is not sustainable:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U58a42USAKc&feature=related

12/4/2008 1:00:30 PM

some of those guys feel like assholes now

12/4/2008 1:38:24 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMdF1CiQAkA&feature=related

Yeah, Schiff also thinks Obama is going to make things a lot worse.

12/4/2008 1:53:12 PM

lawl at that video

12/4/2008 2:04:51 PM

Sure, if he tries to raise taxes and balloon the government in the near term. Aren't you one of the same folks in another thread whining that Obama is already flip flopping on his tax and econ policies because he knows he can't push them through in the near term? I know one of you right wingers has made that statement. Maybe it was kdawg, he seems to be the most deluded of you guys (not that you are in particular deluded).

12/4/2008 2:09:05 PM

Hey, you are the one that said you had a mancrush on Schiff, just enlightening you on his views.


Hell, I think Schiff had some good points, and I agree with a lot of what he has said. But he is predicting an almost doomsday scenario, which I am not sure is going to happen.

12/4/2008 2:20:19 PM

Quote :

"http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMdF1CiQAkA&feature=related Yeah, Schiff also thinks Obama is going to make things a lot worse."

He's 100% right that we can't spend our way out of this crisis, and that propping up inflated, failing companies COULD be catastrophic.

I don't get why he think Obama would have made this worse than McCain though because McCain's proposed tax cuts would have resulted in the same over-inflated problems Obama's spending would cause, and MCCain, based on his proposals, had a HIGHER debt/income ratio than Obama.

Obama has since revised his policies though, so i'm not sure where things stand now.

12/4/2008 5:09:57 PM

classic

12/4/2008 5:41:46 PM

it's pretty clear Obama kept with his economics message throughout the campaign so he would not be accused of flip-flopping during the campaign, and to stay on message.
But now that he's elected, it looks like he's going to do, at least temporarily, whatever is necessary to get us out of this mess, and will put his own agenda on the backburner (like letting the Bush tax structure go out until 2011)

12/4/2008 6:31:51 PM

Umm isn't that Schiff's point? That Obama is going to try to do whatever it takes? And that in turn will royally screw us over. Schiff wants the economy to "fail" he sees it as a needed pain. Obama is going to do whatever it takes to prevent this, thus weaking us even further following Schiff's logic.

12/4/2008 7:01:05 PM

goddamn, this dude just pawned all those douchebags

Ben Stein is a complete dumbass

hahahahaha at the big black dude at the end, I think the dow is going to hit 19K

[Edited on December 4, 2008 at 9:47 PM. Reason : .]

12/4/2008 9:46:14 PM

Looks like Laffer owes Schiff a penny.

12/5/2008 11:31:20 AM

Who would take stock advice from a guy with a Jerry Curl?

12/5/2008 4:05:28 PM

ive seen so many schiff videos, they're all hilarious at how confident he is
i wish they could line up all those other experts and make them appologize for being so stupid and arrogant

12/5/2008 4:46:20 PM

Quote :

"Ben Stein is a complete dumbass"

12/5/2008 6:07:01 PM

i probably spent 20 hours over the thanksgiving break watching schiff and ron paul videos.

He's right the Dow has been in a bear market for almost 7-8 years and only now are people beginning to take notice.

When rampant inflation strikes in a few years people will try to play the "I told you it would come back!" card when the dow goes up a little... but that is irrelevant when our purchasing power evaporates.

Bernanke has decided to steal everyone's life savings under the guise of "helping people" and there is nothing anyone can do about it.

12/6/2008 12:52:22 PM

Peter Shiff + Ron Paul
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0w9j_t4AaH0

12/22/2008 10:36:19 AM

DRAMA!

12/22/2008 11:14:27 AM

Actually, now that I think about it...

This crash...

Ron Paul was talking an economic crash during the primaries...

He should at least get credit for calling the crash and the Iraq war. Maybe we should listen next time he says something.

12/22/2008 1:30:35 PM

people too strongly adhere to cognitive dissonance. you could warn them all day long what was coming and they wouldn't take it to heart.

12/22/2008 1:57:52 PM

well people have been calling the end of the world for thousands of years.

doesnt mean people believe it.

people looked at this crisis the same way.

which was a bad idea.

12/22/2008 2:38:47 PM

Quote :

"Actually, now that I think about it... This crash... Ron Paul was talking an economic crash during the primaries... He should at least get credit for calling the crash and the Iraq war. Maybe we should listen next time he says something."

Any person that was supporting Ron Paul for the right reasons could tell you this. He was discussing some very important points that those towing the line for the two parties won't talk about. It's easy to laugh it all off, but the reality of inflationary spending is about to hit a lot of people hard.

12/22/2008 2:46:09 PM

If Ron Paul could just not talk about his support of the gold standard and flat tax, he'd otherwise be a great candidate, I think.

12/22/2008 3:07:53 PM

^
That's exactly the kind of talk this fiat-weary country needs. And I don't think he is for a flat tax....

Q: You have been saying on the campaign stump, “I’d like to get rid of the IRS. I want to get rid of the income tax.” Abolish it?

Paul: That’s a good idea. I like that idea.

Q: What would happen to all those lost revenues? How would we fund our government?

Paul: We have to cut spending. You can’t get rid of the income tax if you don’t get rid of some spending. But, you know, if you got rid of the income tax today you’d have about as much revenue as we had 10 years ago, and the size of government wasn’t all that bad 10 years ago. There’re sources of revenues other than the income tax. You have tariff, excise taxes, user fees, highway fees. So, so there’s still a lot of money. But the real problem is spending. But, you know, we lived a long time in this country without an income tax. Up until 1913 we didn’t have it.

Q: But if you eliminate the income tax, do you know how much lost revenue that would be?

Paul: A lot.

Q: Over a trillion dollars.

Paul: That’s good.

http://www.ontheissues.org/2008/Ron_Paul_Tax_Reform.htm

[Edited on December 22, 2008 at 9:56 PM. Reason : .]

12/22/2008 9:55:56 PM

it looks like Shiff has only been right about one of his major 4 thesis over the past year, and that is the one he is getting all the attention for (#1 below)

Quote :

" * US Equity Markets Will Crash. * US Dollar Will Go To Zero (Hyperinflation). * Decoupling (The rest of the world would be immune to a US slowdown. * Buy foreign equities and commodities and hold them with no exit strategy. "

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/01/peter-schiff-was-wrong.html

1/26/2009 6:39:10 AM

Dang. That's like predicting, literally seeing an iceberg in your path miles ahead...AND STEERING THE SHIP FOR IT.

I was all on Schiff's jock with a bonafide mancrush, but certainly not now. That's epic levels of fail right there.

Oh, funny thing actually

Quote :

""I'm rather fond of the word decoupling, in fact, because it fits two of my favorite analogies. The first is that America is no longer the engine of economic growth but the caboose. [The second] When China divorces us, the Chinese will keep 100% of their property and their factories, use their products themselves, and enjoy a dramatically improved lifestyle.""

I'm pretty sure rallydurham said this in some thread here almost verbatim. Oops.

[Edited on January 26, 2009 at 8:47 AM. Reason : .]

1/26/2009 8:46:40 AM

Come now, you have to give credit where credit is due. The "only" thing he got right was the crash of US equities? I'd say that's pretty significant considering he was literally being laughed at by EVERYONE for this belief two years ago. And he was dead on in his economic reasoning for the collapse.

That said, I wouldn't invest with him. For one, I think he was wrong on decoupling. I am thoroughly convinced that the global economy is now so intertwined that a crash in any major economic power is going to drag along the rest of the world with it. While American consumerism has shown to be a cancer, I think Schiff underestimates how important that consumer was to spurring the growth of the rest of the world. So to put money 100% into foreign equities to hedge the U.S. crash was a bad idea.

Two, I do not agree with his philosophy on gold. I absolutely believe that we are going to see inflation run wild at some point as the Fed's monetary policy pushes the dollar lower. But this is Warren Buffett's view on gold:

Quote :

" "[Gold] gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."

So gold as a hedge to the dollar makes no sense because the same principles apply to gold as a fiat currency - the only real value is what we say it is. It has very little function. People will eventually take their money out of gold and put it into something else, and the price will drop. A much better investment would be high-demand commodities such as oil (which Schiff does encourage) and industrial metals such as copper or steel. Demand will surely rise again when the global economy comes back, and we'll see another commodity boom.

But you have to listen to this guy when he speaks because he definitely has a handle on the broad economic picture. This "fix" of throwing money at the economy is only going to compound the problem and prolong/intensify the agony. Our economic model is broken and it will take 5-10 years of deleveraging and non-existent growth to fix. We NEED a recession. But most of us should see opportunity here, because most of us have a time horizon of +30 years or so. So if stocks are on sale for the next 5-10 years that just means we'll own that many more shares of good companies when the global economy rebounds.

1/31/2009 2:10:18 AM

^ I'd recommend reading the blog that agentlion posted a couple of posts ago. That guy (Mish Shedlock) had been calling for an equities crash as well, but he also pegged that we were headed for a deflationary situation, not inflationary, and has generally been spot on in discussing the economy. Dr. Housing Bubble Blog is also an excellent one to read.

Also, if you do believe we are heading for massive inflation, about the best place to put your money would be..........


real estate

[Edited on January 31, 2009 at 12:07 PM. Reason : .]

1/31/2009 12:05:14 PM

yeah i read it. i think deflation will be shortlived though because demand destruction in commodities can only go so far. financial fundamentals are much better in growing economies like China and they will begin resuming their expansion in the next few years while the U.S. SHOULD be doing the opposite. we need to reign in spending, but instead we're spending more and just running the printing press at full capacity. inflation is inevitable, meaning dollar-dominated products like oil will take off again.

1/31/2009 5:07:27 PM

bump by request

6/19/2009 5:18:13 PM

Quote :

"I'd recommend reading the blog that agentlion posted a couple of posts ago. That guy (Mish Shedlock) had been calling for an equities crash as well, but he also pegged that we were headed for a deflationary situation, not inflationary, and has generally been spot on in discussing the economy."

Mish is generally just spot on with most everything he touches. He made a comment back in April...of 2008, that the Fed would utilize this crisis as a power grab

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/04/fed-uncertainty-principle.html

Quote :

"Uncertainty Principle Corollary Number Two: The government/quasi-government body most responsible for creating this mess (the Fed), will attempt a big power grab, purportedly to fix whatever problems it creates. The bigger the mess it creates, the more power it will attempt to grab. Over time this leads to dangerously concentrated power into the hands of those who have already proven they do not know what they are doing."

He also stated we were already in recession long before NBER called it.

He's pretty much a student of Austrian economics and is clearly libertarian in thought, which is why I pointed him out at some point awhile back because I know you guys love that stuff.

6/20/2009 9:07:48 AM

Quote :

"and everything he said is true. "

this is a huge myth, he has said a lot of stuff that has not come true

6/20/2009 10:10:22 AM

Quote :

"this is a huge myth, he has said a lot of stuff that has not come true"

I love how people read one thing out of the entire thread and then not read the rest of it.

Did you even see when this thread originated?

6/20/2009 10:23:08 AM

^^

Quote :

"it looks like Shiff has only been right about one of his major 4 thesis over the past year, and that is the one he is getting all the attention for (#1 below) Quote : " * US Equity Markets Will Crash. * US Dollar Will Go To Zero (Hyperinflation). * Decoupling (The rest of the world would be immune to a US slowdown. * Buy foreign equities and commodities and hold them with no exit strategy. " http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/01/peter-schiff-was-wrong.html "

6/20/2009 10:29:30 AM

Quote :

"Q: But if you eliminate the income tax, do you know how much lost revenue that would be? Paul: A lot. Q: Over a trillion dollars. Paul: That’s good."

Ron Paul 2012

6/20/2009 10:39:45 AM

If we implemented Pauls ideas the economy would be in recession for 10 years. At the end of that, we'd probably be poised for a new Golden Age of...everything economic... in this country, but we're so far down the road we are on (and driving farther down it daily at an accelerating pace) that the pain of getting from here to there probably wouldn't be worth it to the current generation.

6/20/2009 10:59:55 AM

I requested this to be bumped because it appears schiff is taking his fan club more seriously about running for senate. This would be a great chance for the people to get someone into office that isn't already part of the machine. We need someone who will call a spade a spade and this is the man who can take down the media fueled obama love fest. Obamas poll numbers have already begun slipping as people realize how backwards his economic policy is now is the time to pounce before the dems confound us to economic hell with their socialized medicine, banking, automotive dreamworld.

6/20/2009 11:49:07 AM

^ It appears that you're correct:

Chris Dodd is about to get hit by a Schiff storm
July 27th, 2009

Quote :

" Chris Dodd's days may be numbered. That is, if Peter Schiff and legions of his supporters have anything to say about it. Peter Schiff has been contemplating a run for Dodd's seat in the U.S. Senate representing Connecticut. Dodd is up for re-election in 2010 and is on shaky ground after his unwavering support of establishment DC politics."

http://libertymaven.com/2009/07/27/chris-dodd-is-about-to-get-hit-by-a-schiff-storm/6638/

7/29/2009 12:49:16 AM

^^ lol

So it was Obama and the dems that confounded us to economic hell over the past couple of years? ha

The Republicans have a higher historical correlation with shitty economies than the democrats do, they are a bigger joke.

With that said, congress has a pathetic lack of experts on any real topic, and someone with the perspective of schiff could do some good, even though he could just be a beneficiary of stopped-clock syndrome.

7/29/2009 1:38:24 AM

Quote :

"Republicans have a higher historical correlation with shitty economies than the democrats do"

1) Correlation means little without an economic reasoning that can strongly suggest causation. (e.g. one would have to have a strong economic argument as to why raising taxes spurs economic activity)

2) Lags in policy implementation alone would cause a simple correlation to be uninformative (i.e. one would need to run a regression with lagged dummy variables for major policies)

3) I'm pretty sure one can arrive at a any conclusion by changing the assumptions. (e.g. By "republicans" do we mean presidents currently in power? Congressional majorities? Does Bush even count as a republican given his liberal, domestic policies such as Medicare Part D, vast expansions of child-tax credits, no-child left behind, ect?)

[Edited on July 29, 2009 at 7:22 AM. Reason : .]

7/29/2009 7:20:42 AM

Quote :

"3) I'm pretty sure one can arrive at a any conclusion by changing the assumptions. (e.g. By "republicans" do we mean presidents currently in power? Congressional majorities? Does Bush even count as a republican given his liberal, domestic policies such as Medicare Part D, vast expansions of child-tax credits, no-child left behind, ect?) "

notice he didn't say fiscally conservative. he said republican. bush did all those things while lowering taxes and starting two wars.

7/29/2009 7:27:30 AM

Schiff's moneybomb is this weekend.

http://schiffforsenate.com/

[Edited on August 8, 2009 at 5:16 PM. Reason : typo]

8/8/2009 5:16:25 PM

Schiffforsenate.com is looking more and more promising. If the media will play him up a little more he could lead the republican party. He would beat dodd in the election its just a matter of overcoming this simmons guy in the primary. If we keep staving off obama for another 14 months the country still has a snowballs chance in hell of not imploding

9/22/2009 2:21:51 PM

Quote :

"Decoupling (The rest of the world would be immune to a US slowdown."

The rest of the world certainly isn't immune but it appears Europe will be recovering before we do. We'll see.

Quote :

"US Dollar Will Go To Zero (Hyperinflation)"

I'm not sure I expect hyper-inflation, but inflation is on the way and there really isn't any way around it.

Quote :

"Buy foreign equities and commodities and hold them with no exit strategy."

This is a long term strategy which has yet to be proven right or wrong.

#1 has happened
#2 TBD within probably the next 18 months
#3 TBD within probably the next 24 months
#4 TBD indefinite

9/22/2009 2:52:56 PM

Peter Schiff: Obama's Phony GDP Growth
October 29, 2009

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wvq7rK3ujtw

Is everything Schiff is saying still true, agentlion? You still high on this guy?

Just asking.

12/16/2009 1:21:47 PM