^

1/5/2017 7:42:47 PM

Someone tell me the truth



[Edited on January 5, 2017 at 7:47 PM. Reason : Hdbd]

1/5/2017 7:46:21 PM

It ain't gonna snow

1/5/2017 9:33:02 PM

A few days ago Fishel was saying how this was rare because it was going to be so cold it would all be snow and now this sleet talk? Gtfo

1/5/2017 9:36:18 PM

last night at 10:30 I said

Quote :

"It'll be a lot of cold rain mixed with some sleet and maybe a flurry of snow at the end"

wompwomp

1/5/2017 9:40:24 PM

Holy shit, you said that?
You should use your newfound powers for good. Maybe predict the next tsunami or earthquake. Save lives.
With great power comes great responsibility.

1/5/2017 9:49:59 PM

I'm just pessimistic as a defense mechanism because I REALLY want to see like a foot of snow on the ground in RDU

1/5/2017 10:02:02 PM

Trends getting worse and worse for snow

1/5/2017 10:48:24 PM

what trust can man put in models, when his only true comfort is doubt of himself?

1/5/2017 11:17:06 PM

^^ even the Nam has a couple inches for Raleigh, with a shit ton of sleet

[Edited on January 5, 2017 at 11:21 PM. Reason : .]

1/5/2017 11:21:20 PM

The DTR model is showing 0 frozen precip and 100% chance of scorpions falling from the sky with ground temps of 108 on the 0z.

1/5/2017 11:24:08 PM

How about that DTF model? 8=============D

1/6/2017 12:03:59 AM

It's amped bruh. AMPED

1/6/2017 12:05:44 AM

1/6/2017 1:45:42 AM

global warming is a myth!!!

1/6/2017 2:58:24 AM

Weather risk is fake news

1/6/2017 6:03:35 AM

Is it? Good bc I was shitting my pants

1/6/2017 6:08:53 AM

Per basically every model not named NAM, we're riiiiight on the the line between a pretty epic amount of snow and a pretty awful amount of sleet.

If it jogs a few more miles to the North/Northwest today, it'll be pretty disappointing. So I'm going to go ahead and plan on it shifting juuuuuust enough that we get sleet and the counties to our north get pounded with the projected 8-12" of snow.

1/6/2017 6:21:07 AM

You'd like a good 8-12" pounding wouldn't you Chris

1/6/2017 6:22:44 AM

The trend has been warming and moving northwest, so look towards the fayetteville forecast if you want a better idea what to expect

1/6/2017 6:28:12 AM

Latest #snowfall forecast amounts. Remember, a warm ground will melt #snow, so not this much on ground. #ncwx
@BigWeatherABC11

1/6/2017 6:45:36 AM

This dude and ground temps

1/6/2017 7:01:07 AM

Jim Cantore reporting live from Raleigh this morning!

1/6/2017 7:22:08 AM

Ground Temp currently 36 and falling.

Where is your GOD NOW!

1/6/2017 7:22:55 AM

1/6/2017 7:50:24 AM

where you fuckshites getting sleet and rain with little snow? NWS RAH is on board with a significant snow event

1/6/2017 7:53:08 AM

If say the model consensus and RAH is about 6-9" with some front end rain or zr

1/6/2017 8:00:32 AM

It is going to be your usual NC storm. The gradient will be high right through the state 50 miles may be the difference between 2 and 12" just a matter of where the sleet/snow line sets up. Right now it appears that line is gonna run through wake county so we all may have very different experiences tomorrow when we wake up.

[Edited on January 6, 2017 at 8:18 AM. Reason : .]

1/6/2017 8:18:02 AM

1/6/2017 8:20:51 AM

the last time he made a similar prediction we got almost none

1/6/2017 8:23:29 AM

You are correct but this is a different storm

1/6/2017 8:26:44 AM

I am gonna stick with my prediction of 7" in Wendell that I have been going with since Tuesday seems reasonable although probably high

1/6/2017 8:27:54 AM

we just moved from our house in North Raleigh down to Garner. I bet our old house sees 8" of snow, while our new house gets all sleet.

1/6/2017 8:31:54 AM

NAM looks a lot better for us than it did.

Now:



Then:

1/6/2017 8:32:18 AM

Nice to see dtownral sticking to his normal "your roads are fine" model.

1/6/2017 8:35:18 AM

I don't think so many people will be wrong.

just in case I have 2 handles of vodka ready.

1/6/2017 9:42:01 AM

screw that. My boss not taking the 2013 storm seriously is why I didn't get to leave work until it had already been snowing very hard for an hour. I lived an hour from work and eventually I wrecked my car because I started skidding and there was a car in front of me, so I tried to control my car but I hit the median... at like 10 mph hindsight I should have pulled over earlier and maybe even found a place to stay overnight. It was pretty terrible because I was stranded in the middle of nowhere for 6 hours.

I told my boss I was in an accident the next morning, so I won't be in until afternoon she was like "oh Im so sorry to hear that"

please don't make your employees stay if it starts snowing

1/6/2017 9:58:34 AM

For what it's worth all the longer term models have a big hit for RDU. Some of the short term hi-res models have a LOT of rain and mixing in RDU (HRRR specifically). Just something to watch...

1/6/2017 10:06:45 AM

Quote :

"we just moved from our house in North Raleigh down to Garner. I bet our old house sees 8" of snow, while our new house gets all sleet."

Well if you are in the "country" part of Garner prepare to get stuck for a while because the roads don't get touched out here. Although for the first time that I can remember they actually pre-treated 10-10 end to end.

1/6/2017 10:08:06 AM

^^I think the HRRR is a tad warm, I'm more on a NAM/RGEM hybrid

^^^I agree partially, but employers should let you out of work BEFORE anything starts to happen. This is why the start/stop times for winter precipitation are much more important IMHO that trying to pin down storm precipitation totals...especially in our area where p-type can change abruptly.

Fortunately this event will unfold after the 9-5 crowd heads home.

[Edited on January 6, 2017 at 10:08 AM. Reason : ]

[Edited on January 6, 2017 at 10:09 AM. Reason : ]

1/6/2017 10:08:33 AM

4^ sounds like you need to go practice snow driving in a parking lot?

1/6/2017 10:15:47 AM

^^ RGEM seems dangerously close to bust territory too.

My house in Durham is in the 6-10" line and extreme SE Wake is .5-2".

If we use history that line moves NW usually from where it is modeled and not SE. But maybe the past four years of absolute shit has made me pessimistic.

[Edited on January 6, 2017 at 10:21 AM. Reason : X]

1/6/2017 10:20:43 AM

^^ yes, I do need more practice. But I also had cheap walmart tires. I was actually doing ok for 3/4 of the way and I was about 6 exits away. Back in the day, my dad (northerner) taught me a little about snow driving and took me out a few times. Now my husband, from MA, also reviews snow driving tactics with me about once a year

But I'm sorry, we live in the south, and no we cannot handle snow because we do not have justification to support money on snow infrastructure. So the issue is not really with the drivers, please just send people home especially when their commute exceeds 15 minutes


[Edited on January 6, 2017 at 10:27 AM. Reason : /]

1/6/2017 10:24:09 AM

Quote :

"Nice to see dtownral sticking to his normal "your roads are fine" model."

it's always been right so far

maybe i'm a little bit off on this one, but i won't be goalielax-wrong

1/6/2017 10:26:11 AM

Lol top post on reddit.

1/6/2017 10:33:52 AM

^^ I think you nailed it. GFS going NW too. Never bet against sleetfests for RDU.

[Edited on January 6, 2017 at 10:40 AM. Reason : to be clear it still says big snow but trends aren't kind]

1/6/2017 10:37:48 AM

This looks to be going bad. I'm in Oxford. I don't think it will shift enough to affect me.

1/6/2017 10:40:01 AM

Oxford? You good

1/6/2017 10:47:33 AM

Yeah anything north of 85 as per usual should be mostly snow.

I'm near Southpoint and will probably see a lot of mixing but even near me is probably OK for 6"+. I worry for snow lovers in and south of downtown Raleigh though. Ground zero yet again.

1/6/2017 10:49:21 AM

Yep, Huffman is starting to walk back his prediction.

1/6/2017 10:56:58 AM