Hurricane season is almost here!

5/25/2011 12:16:43 PM

Should we entertain the n00bs by drumming up our debate that is probably at least a decade old by now?

5/25/2011 12:33:45 PM

funny... the reason i posted this thread when i did is because i saw your name in some other thread!

[Edited on May 25, 2011 at 12:57 PM. Reason : ]

5/25/2011 12:56:00 PM

Reposting because this is a better place for this thread.

Quote :

" Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT REACHES LAND IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 11...6...AND 2...RESPECTIVELY. THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2011 IS AS FOLLOWS: NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION ------------------------------------------------------------- ARLENE AR LEEN- LEE LEE BRET BRET MARIA MUH REE- UH CINDY SIN- DEE NATE NAIT DON DAHN OPHELIA O FEEL- YA EMILY EH- MIH LEE PHILIPPE FEE LEEP- FRANKLIN FRANK- LIN RINA REE- NUH GERT GERT SEAN SHAWN HARVEY HAR- VEE TAMMY TAM- EE IRENE EYE REEN- VINCE VINSS JOSE HO ZAY- WHITNEY WHIT- NEE KATIA KA TEE- AH "

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1

6/1/2011 3:03:20 AM

What I would give for a nice, cooling tropical system (I'd even settle for just a storm) right about now.

6/1/2011 10:20:29 AM

OPHELIA         O FEEL- YA

6/1/2011 11:23:42 AM

^^Amen to that.


^^^noticed that off the coast when I saw the radar map this morning. Interesting...


Glad to see this thread in The Lounge. That's where it has historically been, and we all know what will happen to that "other" one in Chit Chat

6/1/2011 11:53:07 AM

I need to do some digging around and see if we are still in a La Niña pattern. If so that should bring with it an increased level of activity.

6/1/2011 12:59:26 PM

Looks like it from the chart here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a

6/1/2011 1:03:06 PM

Ophelia has 4 syllables, not 3

6/1/2011 1:18:28 PM

if you are pretentious it does.

6/2/2011 8:41:40 AM

^^Miriam Webster disagrees. http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/ophelia

do you not think that they check to make sure the names fit the pattern before they publish them?

6/2/2011 8:49:41 AM

Interesting little tid-bit:

It has been over 1,000 days since any hurricane made landfall in the US. The longest hurricane free period since before the Civil War.

6/3/2011 9:41:03 AM

really?

6/3/2011 9:53:56 AM

Yep been a few decently busy seasons now but they have all stayed far south or swung out to sea.

6/3/2011 9:56:20 AM

calm before the storm

6/3/2011 10:06:01 AM

the last few seasons have been really busy with the atlantic basin getting ever warmer each year. The problem has been el nino and la nina steering patterns have kept them away from the us. This year is neither el nino nor la nina. The last "normal" enso year was 2005. We all know how that went.

6/3/2011 8:26:10 PM

6/8/2011 9:07:59 PM

Wake me up when it's bringing rain to NC.

6/8/2011 9:09:53 PM

http://www.pronouncenames.com/pronounce/ophelia

Quote :

"^^Miriam Webster disagrees. http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/ophelia"

click audio and listen. 4 syllables.


[Edited on June 8, 2011 at 9:12 PM. Reason : .]

6/8/2011 9:11:51 PM

^enough. "\o-'fel-y?\"
and the Miriam Webster audio pronunciation definitely had 3.

some pretentious douchebags add a 4th.

argument over.

[Edited on June 9, 2011 at 6:17 AM. Reason : ]

6/9/2011 6:16:17 AM

O-FEE-lee-ah
lee - rhymes with SEE
ah is pronounced as 'A' in CAR

6/9/2011 7:26:19 AM

We talkin' bout syllables?

Not a name, not a name, not a name...

Syllables?!

Stop.

and I agree with \/, btw

6/9/2011 7:42:40 AM

Merriam Webster is more reputable than some random internet pronunciation site. anyway, agree to disagree.

6/9/2011 7:43:22 AM

but it agrees with what i said. the pretentious, Shakespearean pronunciation is 3 syllables. the way we say it in amurica is 4.

6/9/2011 8:15:54 AM

did you miss where MW defined the three syllables?

\o- 'fel- y?\

or this one

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/ophelia

6/9/2011 9:40:31 AM

did you listen to them pronounce it with 4 syllables? or google name pronunciation?

6/9/2011 9:41:59 AM

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/syllable

"usually set off from the rest of the word by a centered dot or a hyphen and roughly corresponding to the syllables of spoken language"

nobody gives a shit what you hear, it is defined as a three syllable word in the dictionary, i really dont know how else to argue this.

/done

6/9/2011 9:52:51 AM

i got nothin

6/9/2011 1:17:50 PM

wtf is going on in this thread

6/9/2011 1:19:21 PM

people bitching about pronunciation. BACK ON TOPIC


Adrian is now a hurricane.

[Edited on June 9, 2011 at 1:35 PM. Reason : ]

6/9/2011 1:35:34 PM

but how many syllables?????????

6/9/2011 2:09:12 PM

bttt

6/16/2011 9:02:32 AM

Anything going on out there? It will pick up.

6/16/2011 9:12:14 AM

Usually dont see anything until July, they just have to start June 1 for those rare occasions

6/16/2011 9:43:06 AM

Quote :

"Tropical Storm #Arlene is 1551 miles SW of Raleigh, moving WSW at 7 mph. Max winds 40 mph. http://hurricanes.wral.com/"

First storm of the year.

6/30/2011 4:57:01 PM

WTNT42 KNHC 172042
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011
500 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS FOUND A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING
DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.  ALTHOUGH WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WERE MEASURED BY THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON BOARD
THE PLANE...THESE OBSERVATIONS WERE FLAGGED AS QUESTIONABLE.  PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 44 KT WHICH WOULD
NORMALLY INDICATE A SYSTEM OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...
THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS RELATIVELY WEAK...AND IN THIS
CASE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY NOT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE
AS MUCH AS TYPICALLY OCCURS.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30
KT.  THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING
WITH SOME DRIER AIR JUST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. 
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LGEM AND
INTENSITY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.  NONE OF THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW
THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE.

INITIAL MOTION IS A SOUTHWARD DRIFT.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM IS
SITUATED IN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND THIS...ALONG WITH A
WEAK TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...SHOULD INDUCE A GENERAL
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
RATHER CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND TO THE LATEST ECMWF TRACK.

7/17/2011 5:35:59 PM

Bret has become the second tropical storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season

WTNT42 KNHC 180238
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011
1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MADE TWO ADDITIONAL PASSES
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE
2100 UTC NHC ADVISORY.  DURING THOSE PASSES...PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 43-45 KT WERE RECORDED ALONG WITH A FEW BELIEVABLE SFMR
SURFACE WINDS JUST ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE.  BASED ON THESE
OBSERVATIONS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION JUST NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER AROUND 0000 UTC...THE DEPRESSION WAS UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM AT THAT TIME.  MICROWAVE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
THAT MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO MODERATE WESTERLY
SHEAR.  THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND SHOWS PEAK INTENSITY OCCURRING
BETWEEN 24-36 HOURS.  WEAKENING IS INDICATED BEYOND 36 HOURS WHEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT AN INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OVER THE CYCLONE.

BRET HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A
LONGER-TERM MOTION YIELDS 145/2.  THE TROPICAL STORM IS NOT
FORECAST TO MOVE VERY MUCH DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS IT
REMAINS IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  IN 24-36 HOURS...THE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BRET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.  AS BRET GAINS LATITUDE IN
2-3 DAYS...IT SHOULD ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN AN AREA
OF DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW.  THE LATEST HWRF AND GFDL MODEL
FORECASTS SHOW A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A TRACK MUCH
CLOSER TO THE UNITED STATES THAN THE USUALLY RELIABLE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS.  THIS SCENARIO APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. 
FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PLACES MORE WEIGHT ON THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.

7/17/2011 11:33:14 PM

Why are you posting advisories for a fish tropical storm?

I hate when people get all excited over the first few storms even when they are insignificant. I could see if it was a cat 3 fish.

7/18/2011 12:01:51 AM

Is this not the 2011 Tropical Storm/Hurricane Thread?

7/18/2011 12:21:01 AM

it is. he is trolling.

7/18/2011 4:33:48 AM

It is and I'm more obsessed with tropical cyclones than anyone. I just don't get why you would copy paste the text advisories for an insignificant storm.

[Edited on July 18, 2011 at 6:59 AM. Reason : Now you have to post every advisory for every storm or my point was legit. ]

7/18/2011 6:56:29 AM

Quote :

"I hate when people get all excited over the first few storms"

Yeah, damn that Camille for being all dinky and boring...

7/18/2011 10:37:34 AM

So you're insinuating bert had the potential to be a camile? We are hyping up storms that not only are weak but never have a chance of impacting the us.

7/18/2011 5:02:07 PM

So a named storm, regardless of potential impact, isn't relevant enough for the Tropical Storm/Hurricane Thread?

I didn't realize there was a "storms that not only are weak but never have a chance of impacting the us" thread.

7/18/2011 5:40:36 PM

I didn't say that. Nor did I say they shouldn't talk about those storms, or even post forecasts. I'm just saying, if you're going to copy past advisories and act all serious about these storms, you better keep it up for ever other named storm of the season. Don't let October get here, and all of a sudden you're skipping hurricanes when you were copy pasting every text advisory for a tropical storm in July.

7/18/2011 5:43:48 PM

Quote :

"So you're insinuating bert had the potential to be a camile?"

I am not insinuating anything other than your comment was absurd.

7/18/2011 6:09:19 PM

You're awfully bothered by this. I'm not entirely sure why I posted the first advisory, but I do like that they downplayed it, only to name the storm in the next update.

Either way, I don't plan to post every bulletin and never did. That's what this page is for: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/.

7/18/2011 6:12:56 PM

Tropical Storm Cindy is out there now, but she's of no concern...

7/20/2011 4:56:25 PM

god, why would you even mention a tropical storm in this thread???

7/21/2011 10:07:35 AM