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 Message Boards » » Dave Doeren Credibility Watch Page 1 ... 112 113 114 115 [116] 117, Prev Next  
GenghisJohn
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thank god

regardless of how this pans out, i hope it means we never see a seven yard soft cushion Bend But Don't Break horseshit scheme ever again

[Edited on December 2, 2019 at 10:37 PM. Reason : .]

12/2/2019 10:37:16 PM

JT3bucky
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I went back and did the math, over the past 3 seasons against P5 teams Dave and Company got outscored in the second half:
354-459

The sole comeback win during this time was against Pitt in 2017, Dave's best year.

If you go back to calculate all 7 years, the margin gets substantially bigger.

12/3/2019 3:25:17 PM

Jrb599
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Tony G for DC. Yippee.

12/4/2019 3:25:28 PM

justinh524
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12/4/2019 5:57:31 PM

alfredough
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Hoping the reason for this is to save $ for a baller OC

12/4/2019 8:16:02 PM

dmspack
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I honestly don’t even really have much of an opinion of the Gibson. Guess I’m just apathetic at the season’s end.

12/4/2019 8:19:14 PM

justinh524
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I'm getting geared up for next year's coaching search.

I hope I'm wrong but we need to make a great, not good, OC hire AND get a transfer QB who's immediately eligible to have any hope next year.

12/4/2019 8:31:03 PM

DROD900
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Why? You'll hate whatever QB plays anyway

12/4/2019 9:58:07 PM

justinh524
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No I won't. I only hate QBs who others unreasonably praise.

I am a huge Daniel Evans fan. King of back corner endzone fades.

12/5/2019 11:26:46 AM

rwoody
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That post is a real journey

12/5/2019 12:21:55 PM

TreeTwista10
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No matter who our next QB is, I'm going to overhype the fuck out of him

12/5/2019 12:37:30 PM

justinh524
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I hope it's Feleipe Franks

12/5/2019 1:05:06 PM

horosho
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Not much else we could have done at that price point. We were looking at Willingham but thats about it.

12/6/2019 9:05:41 PM

dmspack
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Who is willingham?

12/6/2019 10:10:28 PM

TreeTwista10
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY2-mrsXgMM

12/6/2019 10:30:48 PM

rwoody
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Drink to Missouri

12/8/2019 10:14:03 PM

horosho
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yall still calling it a lateral move?

12/8/2019 10:22:23 PM

dmspack
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nobody ever called Drink to App a lateral move, e man.

12/9/2019 6:38:37 AM

cptinsano
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App fans super salty about his "not a stepping stone" comments a year ago.

12/9/2019 8:51:55 AM

Dynasty2004
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We are in trouble.

5/11/2020 3:51:09 PM

rwoody
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Great bump, 2nd of the day!

5/11/2020 4:25:24 PM

dmspack
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Any specific reason for the bump or...?

5/11/2020 4:30:22 PM

rwoody
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Everything has been going great in the world so he wanted to knock us down a few pegs

5/11/2020 4:33:47 PM

TreeTwista10
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he had some pretty questionable Mother's Day RTs

5/11/2020 7:50:07 PM

rwoody
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2nd all time in wins at State. Credibility or depression?

11/15/2020 8:55:26 PM

horosho
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won this thread so bad it hurts

11/15/2020 9:13:40 PM

rayef3rw
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^^ he is also T-2nd for longest coaching tenure at State with Beattie Feathers (1944-51, 8 years), behind only Earle Edwards. We play more games nowadays so if he's here a long time and does reasonably well he's gonna win more games just by virtue of the system.

That being said, I do think it bodes well for him that he has 2nd most wins. I've been pretty outspoken about not getting the amount of hate Doeren gets. While he has a clear ceiling, it's pretty dang high, and I think, barring him wanting a payout or some other factors, our program really doesn't have a justifiable excuse for moving on from him until we're consistently putting up 8-10 win seasons for 5+ years straight, because frankly, his ceiling is also, historically, roughly our ceiling anyways.

11/15/2020 10:45:34 PM

rwoody
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The first part is why I said credibility or depression. It's pretty depressing that a mediocre coach that keeps doing just enough to not get fired AND has a 0/1 win acc seasons has hung on long enough to be 2nd all time in wins. Says alot our program history

11/15/2020 11:19:28 PM

rayef3rw
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That's fair. Not including this season he's got a 47-42 record at State. Removing his first 2013 season, which aside from 2019 is an obvious outlier, he's got a 44-33 record (57.7% win percentage). If we wanna be generous and remove 2019 too he moves to 40-25, which is a 61.5% winning percentage.

Now obviously you can remove as many seasons as you want to make the data look favorable, but aside from two bad seasons (2013 because of a transition from Tim O'Brien to Doeren and 2019 because of lots of injuries) he's not a bad head coach. Not phenomenal, but, like I said, I think his ceiling is currently our program's ceiling, so we shouldn't worry about moving on before it becomes an issue.

Now conservative Dave has reared his ugly head a few times, especially the end of the Miami game and the start of UNC, but, I think he balances out well from a recruiting and assistants standpoint.

11/16/2020 10:56:43 AM

TKE-Teg
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After the bullshit that was the VT game this year, I'm having a really hard time continuing to be a supporter of his. He could probably change my mind with a big win (UNC or Miami) would probably have worked. But unless we win out, I'm not interested anymore. This is his 8th year. That's ridiculous.

11/16/2020 1:04:01 PM

rwoody
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^^his OOC scheduling has also been really weak his whole career, so that's 3-4 free wins a year.


His record should really be better based on the talent that's been here. Teams choke away probably at least one win per year.

11/16/2020 2:13:50 PM

justinh524
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His OOC scheduling has been fine. We aren't trying to have a top 10 SOS. We play 1 P5 school a year as required by the conference, just like pretty much every other team not competing for the playoffs.

The only way we're ever going to the playoffs is an undefeated season and at that point, it doesn't matter if we play 3 buy games or not. There's no point in scheduling tougher. All that does is potentially hurt our bowl selection.

There's a lot you can rip on Doeren for, but scheduling isn't really one. Unless you just want to play 4 ranked OOC teams every year. Which is absolutely dumb.

[Edited on November 16, 2020 at 3:29 PM. Reason : .]

11/16/2020 3:28:22 PM

rwoody
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I think you misunderstand. I don't have a problem with weak OOC schedules but it absolutely pads his wins. To the point that it's almost silly to evaluate him based on overall wins or overall record, look at acc record.

[Edited on November 16, 2020 at 3:39 PM. Reason : Not saying his ability to schedule is weak, but that he schedules weak teams. Which is mostly fine]

[Edited on November 16, 2020 at 3:40 PM. Reason : Although as a fan, it would also be nice to see a competitive game evey now and then ]

11/16/2020 3:37:25 PM

rwoody
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Oh btw scheduling liberty was a bad decision that may be compounded by the bad luck of them being good

The less attention given to that school and its terrible leadership the better.

11/16/2020 3:57:17 PM

justinh524
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I agree about liberty.

But pretty much every school that's not the dozen or so competing for national championships schedules as many easy wins as possible to pad stats. It's not unique to Doeren.

11/16/2020 4:01:09 PM

rwoody
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Yea i think you're still reading an argument that isn't there. That fact is irrelevant to the topic we were discussing.

11/16/2020 5:11:47 PM

justinh524
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Quote :
"^^his OOC scheduling has also been really weak his whole career, so that's 3-4 free wins a year."


This is what I'm referring to. You can use that argument with almost every P5 coach.

I'm not even going to try and argue with rayef3rw, because his logic of removing bad seasons is silly.

Also, I'm not advocating for keeping Doeren, because the guy was definitely the head coach during arguably the 2 worst seasons of nc state football. Ever. Even if you want to overlook his initial season, last year was 100% on him and the mismanagement of both the offensive coordinator position and his continued bungling of the qb room.

I just hope that McLaughlin kid is a star and beats everyone out for the starting job as a true freshman. No pressure though.

Also, NC State has absolutely no winning tradition in football. It's no surprise that Doeren has the second most all time wins here for multiple reasons: 1) he's been here a good while. Only Earle Edwards has a longer tenure as head coach (and he had a career .468 winning percentage) 2) seasons are longer than they were pre-2000s. Playing 12 games + a bowl a year adds up quickly when compared to 10.

I know I've argued this before, but there's no reason to expect much more than what's historically been the norm at NC State (6-7 wins) unless there is a huge increase in the football budget relative to other programs in the conference. Moreso than any other sport, football success is directly tied to money. Yes, a revolutionary coach might add a win or 2 to that (until he gets hired away) or a special Riversesque QB might get us in the national conversation for a year, but we're never going to compete for national championships regularly unless big money donors just dump truckloads of money solely into football. That's the cold hard truth.

[Edited on November 16, 2020 at 6:10 PM. Reason : .]

11/16/2020 5:53:57 PM

dmspack
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Quote :
" This is his 8th year. That's ridiculous."


It’s fine to not like DD. But what does it matter that it is his 8th year? What, in the century long history of NC State football, would make somebody think that we’d be consistently competing at a high level just because a coach stuck around for 8 years?

I’m not saying we should be satisfied with mediocrity. But Doeren’s done a fine job imo. Like somebody else said, he was at the helm for 2 of the worst seasons ever and that has to count against him. But he was also responsible for a 6-2 ACC record and consecutive back to back winning records in the ACC...something that hadn’t been done in like 25 years. And he’s on his way to another solid season this year (even with a back up QB). We’ll be favored in every game left.

Justin said it well ^

11/16/2020 6:33:19 PM

rwoody
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^^the comparison isn't against other power 5 coaches, it's against past nc state coaches.

11/16/2020 6:46:49 PM

justinh524
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And he fits right in with our history of coaches.

I mean, arguably the best coach in school history (Dick Sheridan) never won 10 games and averaged just over 7 wins a year and only went 31-18-1 in a pre-FSU ACC (He only played FSU once - in his final season and was beaten soundly at home.) And he never even won a conference championship in a decidedly weaker football conference than the ACC of later years.

The only coaches who have winning ACC records besides Sheridan are Edwards, Lou Holtz and Bo Rein, the latter two who both left for greener pastures after 4 years. I'd be wary of comparing conference records of that/those era(s) to now because the competition is so much tougher now. There weren't national championship caliber teams in the ACC during that time (maybe Clemson during Rein's last years, but otherwise the conference was a national afterthought for decades)

Yeah Doeren's ACC record isn't good, but it's not doing outlier when compared to the history of the program as a whole and especially in the modern era. This job is his unless he posts another 0-1 conference win season.

[Edited on November 16, 2020 at 9:03 PM. Reason : .]

11/16/2020 8:53:10 PM

rwoody
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Again I don't think anyone's arguing any of those points? I know it's been awhile since we had a good sports talk debate but you'll have to keep waiting.

11/16/2020 9:11:07 PM

dmspack
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i think y'all are both right!

11/17/2020 6:44:26 AM

rwoody
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I won't argue with you

(welcome back to ST everyone )

11/17/2020 8:52:16 AM

JT3bucky
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Still don't believe he was the hire that Debbie needed to make. It's been ok....but still believe NCSU could have went elsewhere and done better over his tenure.

11/17/2020 11:36:34 AM

rwoody
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He gets some positive credibility for beating liberty, but I think the win made us all forget he punted from the 37 yd line on 4th and 7. (also later from the 39 but that was 4th and 18 so I guess he gets a pass)

11/24/2020 11:32:03 AM

dmspack
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^ gross

^^ thinking back to this...here are some of the (semi realistic) coaching names that were mentioned back then:

Chad Morris (was OC at Clemson back then, he flamed out spectacularly in his only P5 HC gig at Arkansas going 0-14 in the sec)

Sonny Dykes (was at La Tech, later hired to Cal that same cycle. Then fired after 2016. Now at SMU).

Darrell Hazell (was at Kent State, hired at Purdue that same cycle. Got fired from Purdue mid season in 2016)

Maybe some early Mike Macintyre rumors but don’t think he was a serious candidate (he was out west and stayed out west).

I also recall some mike leach rumors...could’ve been fun but also fuck that guy.

Of the legit candidates, we probably got the best guy. That doesn’t mean there weren’t better guys out there. Hindsight is 20/20 and it’s easy now to point at some then-unknown coach and say we should’ve hired him. But of the obvious candidates, DD may have been the best option for us.

11/24/2020 5:19:26 PM

justinh524
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Quote :
" I think the win made us all forget he punted from the 37 yd line on 4th and 7."


what, so you wanted hockman to throw for it?

11/24/2020 6:47:05 PM

rayef3rw
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Just finished writing this up for Reddit but figured I'd share it here too:

I'm one of the bigger Dave Doeren apologists that I know of, but making comparisons like this (conference wins in a season) is tough. DD is currently tied for 2nd-longest coaching tenure here at State but he's also 29 games played ahead of Beattie Feathers, who he's tied with for longest tenure and plays about 3.5 more games per season, and plays more conference games too, this year in particular.

In terms of overall winning percentage (currently 53.6%), he's number 4 all-time for NC State coaches who coached here for more than 5 years, behind Eddie Green (74.2%), Dick Sheridan (63.7%), and Chuck Amato (60.0%).

In terms of conference winning percentage (currently 37.5%), he's no. 9 all-time for the same criteria, behind Dick Sheridan (63.0%), Earle Edwards (56.9%), Eddie Green (50.0%), Beattie Feathers (48.9%), Mike O'Cain (46.4%), Tom O'Brien (45.8%), Doc Newton (44.7%), and Chuck Amato (44.6%).

He's behind only 3 coaches in both those criteria: Eddie Green, Dick Sheridan, and Chuck Amato.

While that conference record is, well, not good, there are a few things to keep in mind. 1) *most* (but not all) of those guys played against a much weaker and smaller ACC/SoCon; Dave has played more conference games per season than any of them (Eddie Green, for example, played only 2; Beattie Feathers and Earle Edwards only 6). That's not a favorable combination of factors for DD.

In total, Dave's conference record is inexcusably bad. Despite that, I don't think we have a justification for firing Dave until his contract runs out *or* he starts consistently missing his ceiling (9 wins like 2017-18). Until then, while he's done worse than most of us would like in-conference, I don't think the justification is there, especially considering the fact that his own conservatism, which could ideally be changed with some coaches who hold him accountable, is what holds him back the most.

[Edited on November 28, 2020 at 3:23 PM. Reason : this does NOT include this season]

[Edited on November 28, 2020 at 3:24 PM. Reason : fuck - fixed it]

11/28/2020 3:19:57 PM

rwoody
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You think they should fire him if he starts consistently getting 9 wins?

11/28/2020 3:23:16 PM

rayef3rw
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Typo -- fixed it now

11/28/2020 3:24:31 PM

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