What are the leading frictional forces if we decided to Balkanize the entire region and form more natural, rival nations. Seems to have worked out pretty well this time around in the Balkans.

There are already two governments in place. Kurdistan does a pretty good job governing and protecting itself. I'm guessing Turkey is the only thing stopping his from happening out of fear they would lose territory to a Kurdish State. "Iraq" does a pretty good job in the Shia areas with the help of Iran. The could continue to ally with Iran.

This would open up the rest of Iraq to an large scale intervention that involves Syria, but does not spill into already stable parts of the country. Essentially, an amputation. Syria and Isis Iraq will also eventually need to be figured out together.

3/23/2015 2:31:53 AM

After your first sentence I have some trouble following what you are trying to say.

Nobody in the region really wants an independent Kurdistan because everyone has a Kurdish region that would want to join. ("Everyone" being Turkey, Iran, and of course Iraq itself)

A Shi'ite regime aligned with Iran is largely what we already have in place, so I'd guess that Iran would oppose splitting it off because that would result in a weaker client. Saudi Arabia might prefer a divided Iraq devouring itself (and Iran's attention) to an impoverished Sunni state and a rump Shi'ite Iraq.

I think most people would argue it hasn't worked out that great in the Balkans and Iraq is primed to be much worse.

Probably everybody agrees that the world would be better off if sane borders had been drawn in 1918, but a century on and it's too late for do-overs.

3/23/2015 11:55:13 AM

Obviously, theres no fix all solution, but I don't see how any solution could be better than a partition. One big country is obviously never going to work without a brutal dictator.

3/23/2015 12:34:28 PM

Oil. What are you questions? Next slide.

3/25/2015 8:46:01 PM