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horosho
All American
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Just pulled the trigger on BA.

3/16/2020 4:20:03 PM

HaLo
All American
13183 Posts
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Brave

3/16/2020 6:56:44 PM

horosho
All American
1872 Posts
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Big bailouts are coming and it can't really get worse than this. They had the plane failures, airlines going down and now COVID-19 in their plant. This is probably rock bottom.

3/16/2020 7:53:10 PM

ElGimpy
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3033 Posts
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You should totally buy now...the next few months definitely won’t be a slow drip of bad economic numbers and financial disclosures due to virus impact

3/16/2020 8:19:39 PM

horosho
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Isn't your thinking "built in" to the current prices?

Re: I divided all my money by 10 and each "rigger pull" is 1/10th.

So far my cprona portfolio is
10% NCLH
10% AAL
10% BA
70% USD

I still do plan to invest the other 70% but waiting on opportune crashes so if it keeps crashing i will just buy more and more.

Still have savings, crypto and tangible assets to fall back on if I lose all of that.

[Edited on March 16, 2020 at 8:43 PM. Reason : k]

3/16/2020 8:43:07 PM

1985
All American
2137 Posts
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Been short all week, think I'll stay short for another week while cases explode, then also pull the trigger on BA

3/16/2020 11:52:41 PM

ElGimpy
All American
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The current prices might be based on the worst case financial scenario, or they might just be based on the fact that a certain someone keeps talking and saying things that aren’t reassuring to anyone while the fed just seems to be flailing

3/17/2020 8:07:03 AM

ElGimpy
All American
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ouch

3/17/2020 10:46:35 AM

Mr. Joshua
we want chilly willy
43823 Posts
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lol yesterday was not a bottom

3/17/2020 11:25:45 AM

horosho
All American
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Mnuchin got our back

3/17/2020 12:04:39 PM

synapse
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^^ do tell.

3/17/2020 12:20:33 PM

horosho
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Wow the Mnuchin bump lasted 10 minutes. Maybe we are fucked.

3/17/2020 12:26:57 PM

Mr. Joshua
we want chilly willy
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^^ Think we're already out of bad news? We haven't even gotten to commercial real estate and sovereign debt problems yet.

3/17/2020 1:14:11 PM

synapse
play so hard
59561 Posts
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Nope

[Edited on March 17, 2020 at 2:41 PM. Reason : but just like you there is a potential for that to be a bottom]

3/17/2020 2:41:24 PM

Mr. Joshua
we want chilly willy
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The only certainty is high volatility. I'm out there flipping options on leveraged index ETFs like its 2008 again. I was in and out of SPXU calls 4 times today.

Also sitting on some long dated SPY puts that I'll move in and out of as the market oscillates.

3/17/2020 4:02:57 PM

theDuke866
All American
52078 Posts
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^oh man, you said it...if i end up home from work, i'm gonna take some of that free time and trade stuff like SSO and maybe VIX trackers and options plays.

[Edited on March 17, 2020 at 11:22 PM. Reason : '08-'09 was crazy and i don't want a repeat, but was ultimately a windfall for me ]

3/17/2020 11:21:03 PM

Geppetto
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The real problem here, and why I'd suspect we haven't hit bottom, is that our policy is slowly pulling off the band-aid instead of ripping it off. This means new economic impacts will slowly become clear and markets will react to them accordingly.

And as @Mr. Joshua said, there are areas that haven't even been hit, yet. As small businesses fail, commercial real estate will suffer. Broke businesses don't pay loans. Hotels, with such high fixed costs, can't operate on empty rooms for two months. Newly constructed homes can't sell when people aren't going to open houses. New cars don't move when people don't come out, etc.

That's not even evaluating the impact income losses from people with variable income (servers, airbnb/uber drivers, outside sales) and people who will lose their jobs entirely. These people put money into the economy as well and when they don't have it that impacts other areas.

3/18/2020 8:26:38 AM

dtownral
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26632 Posts
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i'm already seeing impacts in commercial real estate from record level rent reduction requests and capital projects being frozen

3/18/2020 8:46:39 AM

horosho
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well shit

[Edited on March 18, 2020 at 10:14 AM. Reason : let me know when we're at the real bottom]

3/18/2020 10:13:51 AM

1985
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2137 Posts
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We went from 14k to 6k on the down in 2008 for a loss of > 50%. This is going to be worse than that, and right now we're only at ~30% losses from ATH

I think we're still freefalling

3/18/2020 11:05:21 AM

Mr. Joshua
we want chilly willy
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3/18/2020 11:23:10 AM

Mr. Joshua
we want chilly willy
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JP Morgan predicting -4% in Q1 and -14% in Q2 returning to positive with +8% and +4%in Qs 3 and 4.

Full year -1.5%

Hold onto your butts.

3/18/2020 3:34:22 PM

dtownral
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+8% third quarter?

(x) doubt

3/18/2020 4:04:35 PM

1985
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^ subscribed

3/18/2020 6:59:06 PM

Dentaldamn
All American
9974 Posts
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Blue Apron up a gazillion percent.

3/19/2020 7:11:59 AM

Mr. Joshua
we want chilly willy
43823 Posts
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JETS might be a good pickup before this is all over.

3/19/2020 1:11:25 PM

Mr. Joshua
we want chilly willy
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GS predicting -24% in Q2 and +12% in Q3.

Also predicting a new jobless number of 2,250,000 next week if anyone wants to buy some puts.

3/20/2020 11:26:00 AM

theDuke866
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futures limit down again. Looks like another big drop at the open tomorrow, i guess on the failure of the stimulus bill in congress.

the bad health effects and the follow-on order economic effects haven't even happened yet. I mean, I know that's priced in to a large extent, but we're in the early innings, and it's going to get more severe from here, I feel certain.

3/23/2020 1:16:06 AM

Mr. Joshua
we want chilly willy
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Despite the down market SPY put price is declining as everyone bakes in a bailout.

I'm not selling yet.

3/23/2020 1:51:54 PM

horosho
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1872 Posts
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Finally bought BYND yesterday and plan on keeping it long term.

Today I sold all my NCLH for 17.08 after buying at 11.18 I don't think the cruise industry is going to be back as quickly as air so I'll take this big gain and look for something else to hop into next crash. The government will probably put really harsh health restrictions on the industry.

BA and AAL looking good.

3/25/2020 1:24:12 PM

horosho
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I placed an opening order for some REIT called MITT. Seemed like it was bottomed. The order didn't go through because it opened +50% and was up to 120% last time I checked. Now I feel like I lost all that money.

3/26/2020 11:56:28 AM

horosho
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Just held my nose and bought HCA. They run 185 hospitals and have been criticized in the past for over-billing the government. Gravy train coming...

3/31/2020 10:40:50 AM

horosho
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All my gains are gone

4/3/2020 5:13:41 PM

horosho
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bought DAL @ 22.57

4/8/2020 2:29:11 PM

Geppetto
All American
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I keep wanting to jump in for some good gains, but I don't like the news that is out there. But the recovery looks fairly consistent, so I feel like I'm going to miss the boat just as I did for 3 months after Trump won- I convinced myself we were going to tank because of him.

But with numbers, such as another 6 million unemployment claims, and a bunch of unforeseen repercussions from closed businesses, delayed residential and commercial rents, banks existing certain customers, etc I have a hard time understanding why the market is trending upward.

4/9/2020 1:35:40 PM

HaLo
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Because the market has line of sight to a recovery now, that’s being priced in

4/9/2020 1:48:15 PM

Mr. Joshua
we want chilly willy
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I'm hearing "bear market rally" thrown around quite a bit this week. The end isn't in sight, buyers are just picking up stocks with the expectation of bailouts.

^^ Not a bad time to nibble on some beat up blue chips, ETFs, and anything that pays over a 3% dividend (although on cost basis a lot of those are 5%+ right now). They're effectively paying you to wait for the stock price to recover. Volatility is going to be high for the foreseeable so you'll certainly have other buying opportunities.

4/9/2020 2:07:37 PM

A Tanzarian
drip drip boom
10316 Posts
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I definitely subscribe to the bear market rally theory.

Those unemployment claims represent a lot of lost jobs that aren't going to instantly return. The longer this goes on, more and more middle-class and white-collar workers will join the early blue-collar/service industry losses. There's a lot of lost spending that's not coming back any time soon.

I imagine business travel (and all the associated spending on transportation, lodging and dining) will never fully recover.

4/9/2020 2:12:10 PM

horosho
All American
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Just bought RTX

I think every sector will fully recover the quarter after the vaccine. So I fee like fall 2021 you will see a lot of these stocks reaching their all time highs. Travel might need the following summer's record numbers to get them over the hump.

4/9/2020 3:59:21 PM

CaelNCSU
All American
6409 Posts
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Up about 20% in my degenerate gambling account.

GLD, CX, FLR, F, MSFT, and USO (keep catching the falling knife)


Been covered selling options and occasionally buying them to pretty good effect.

4/14/2020 12:23:42 PM

David0603
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Waiting to see what happens after Delta and Southwest earnings next week.

4/17/2020 8:37:32 AM

synapse
play so hard
59561 Posts
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I'm up like 40% since pushing some money in a month ago...my first foray into trading individual stocks (returns greatly buoyed by TSLA but they're all up obvi/market is up)

I bought:
Lots of TSLA
DSY
COST
JPM
LOGM
YUM

[Edited on April 17, 2020 at 10:13 AM. Reason : Open to input as I have absolutely no idea what I'm doing ]

[Edited on April 17, 2020 at 10:15 AM. Reason : Wanted to buy some Lowe's a few weeks ago but didn't ]

4/17/2020 9:58:41 AM

CaelNCSU
All American
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Damn, wish I'd thought of COST.

I'm still super bearish, but small buys when I get paid seem a good way to hedge.

4/17/2020 10:10:12 AM

synapse
play so hard
59561 Posts
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Quote :
"Waiting to see what happens after Delta and Southwest earnings next week"


Planning on jumping in since the earnings will be terrible?

[Edited on April 17, 2020 at 10:17 AM. Reason : With an eye to the future/resuming life?]

4/17/2020 10:16:51 AM

horosho
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People will be flying back to normal again by the end of 2021. AAL has the youngest fleet so I think that will give them an advantage even though they seem to be worse off right now.

4/17/2020 11:09:22 AM

David0603
All American
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^^ Basically. Dividend on delta is good too.

4/17/2020 11:20:53 AM

synapse
play so hard
59561 Posts
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Bought JNJ

4/17/2020 12:49:39 PM

synapse
play so hard
59561 Posts
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Quote :
"People will be flying back to normal again by the end of 2021"


That's a long time to wait. Are the airlines too big to fail?

4/17/2020 12:50:28 PM

David0603
All American
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Yeah, they'd get bailed out.

4/17/2020 4:25:32 PM

Mr. Joshua
we want chilly willy
43823 Posts
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I made some money on UAL when their stock took a hit after they dragged the guy off of the plane and we all said we’d never ever fly United again for two weeks, but otherwise I avoid the airlines.

I always come back to Robert Crandall, the CEO of American saying, “I've never invested in any airline. I'm an airline manager. I don't invest in airlines. And I always said to the employees of American, 'This is not an appropriate investment. It's a great place to work and it's a great company that does important work. But airlines are not an investment.’”

That said, there will almost certainly be bailouts and rebounds. It wouldn’t be the worst move to pick up some AAL, DAL, or LUV as the price drop has pushed their dividend into attractive territory for something that you might have to hold for 18 months to see movement.

4/17/2020 4:29:49 PM

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