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Flyin Ryan
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Quote :
"I've seen rumblings on Twitter that the Republicans are going to implode. Most of what Republicans have done for last few decades is give way to the left over culture war issues to get their tax breaks. The religious Republican base isn't happy. Could be an opportunity of a new awakening."


The religious Republican base was not happy in early to mid-2016. It's not like Trump represents the religious wing of the party at all. From their perspective he's just a useful idiot that is passing on judicial nominees because it's not like Trump is taking the time to study judicial policy at all unless it concerns his practices.

There's nothing that infuriates me more about how politics is practiced than once a primary is held you have large segments of the population that develop collective amnesia about everything that was said before the primary. The religious right hated Trump in the primaries, if you saw the memes or stories they were putting out or listened to bits of the radio and their programs at the time.

Quote :
"As a result that core could break into a new party or overthrow the current leadership over the next cycle."


There are large sections of the country where one party is wholly uncompetitive, to the point a new party could fill that gap in those areas only. Problem is inertia and people that vote reflexively for a letter at the end of a name versus actually look at candidates, so you're talking a process of many years. An easy example is Washington, D.C. The Republicans get 4-5% but are still the 2nd-largest party there. Why? Bob Johnson who owns BET in the past month called for a new party for blacks to form. It's the easiest argument for a 3rd party ever is the Congressional Black Caucus in majority minority districts. It's not a new idea - Lenora Fulani of the New Alliance Party of the '80s/early '90s tried to do this and get Jesse Jackson on board, but it didn't work. So Fulani and company took to entryism (Reform Party post-Ross Perot where I think they actually backed Pat Buchanan in 2000 which is quite your odd bedfellows, then the New York City Independence Party which I think they still control).

But they probably see they can have a more powerful role by taking control of the Democratic Party due to they vote as a unit. So in my area which is Republican majority but has a part of the city overwhelmingly black, that overwhelmingly black part control the Democratic primaries in the Democrat-friendly areas to the point of I don't think there has been a new elected white Democrat for Mayor, city council, state legislature, county seats, Township Trustee for 9 years now. All the new blood have been black, and it's normally through mid-term vacancies that necessitate party caucuses, which is a very limited voter base compared to a primary. They did some maneuvering in last year's municipal elections to get a long-serving black Council member to move from his ultra-safe district seat to an at-large seat where he ran on his name, thereby allowing a county council member to win the ultra-safe district seat, which then meant her county council seat became vacant and was filled by a party caucus to...another black politician. The long-serving black Council member is rumored he will retire in the next year or two, allowing a caucus to replace him and they want to get a Latino onto City Council. The white Democrats in my county are fucked.

For the flip side, I think Democrats are dead in rural areas for probably the next 20 years. What replaces them as 2nd party, I don't know. Maybe the Libertarians. It's not that outside the realm of possibility because they're the next-best entity to where fighting for ballot access every national election is not necessarily required. We now have 2 parties that have been taken over by their extremes to the point it's made the Libertarians the moderate middle, which is insane compared to a couple decades ago.

[Edited on July 13, 2020 at 12:17 PM. Reason : /]

7/13/2020 12:05:32 PM

bdmazur
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^Makes me think of McMullin in Utah in 2016.

Quote :
"Turnout would increase if there were more options advertised "


Only if the way vote changes. If we had Ranked Choice, then absolutely. But as it stands now not even people who vote for the top two feel like their votes matter outside of FL, OH, PA, WI, and MI (and maybe now AZ, too).

[Edited on July 13, 2020 at 3:01 PM. Reason : -]

7/13/2020 2:59:23 PM

StTexan
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Can anyone that wants a mail in ballot get one?

7/13/2020 8:16:21 PM

A Tanzarian
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Varies by state

7/13/2020 9:00:22 PM

moron
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The states where Biden is polling more than 5% would already handily win him the election

https://www.270towin.com/maps/biden-trump-polling-map

7/13/2020 9:26:09 PM

rwoody
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Bdmazur posted that at the top of last page

7/13/2020 9:40:41 PM

StTexan
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Now is not the time to get complacent lol

7/13/2020 11:04:08 PM

Geppetto
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Quote :
" 2 parties that have been taken over by their extremes to the point it's made the Libertarians the moderate middle,"


I'd say that the democratic party is not an extreme by any definition. Only with Biden's new plan has the party moved anywhere to the left of where they have been since the 90s. Likewise they are not to the left of any major left leaning policy in other western countries. In most circumstances they are within the right spectrum of western politics.

Libertarians, on the other hand, are by definition an extreme. Libertarianism is a hardlined defund social programs, enable usage fees, income taxation at zero and pay via national sales tax. Libertarianism is also pretty extreme on social issues- i.e. if it doesn't impact me do it.

7/15/2020 9:18:10 AM

Flyin Ryan
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Quote :
"
I'd say that the democratic party is not an extreme by any definition."


Both parties are kicking out their moderates in primaries with low participation rates and the highly motivated more extreme base in each party cheer that fact. The Democrats have moved left in the past 15 years and the Republicans have moved right in the past 15 years. Bill Clinton and Al Gore would've never been nominated by this Democratic Party. There's an argument to be made on Hillary Clinton both for and against. This Democratic Party would've still nominated Obama due to like Biden blacks vote as a unit and with Obama were heavily motivated to vote. (The only thing stopping Democrats from going hard left is the blacks and Latinos are more conservative than Democratic white voters.) I think this Democratic Party probably would've still nominated John Kerry when considering who else was running in 2004 (such as John Edwards, one of my pet North Carolina political hatreds alongside Elizabeth Dole, Easley, and Bev Perdue).

On the flip side, this Republican Party would've never nominated George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, John McCain, or Mitt Romney. I think they would've still nominated George W. Bush and obviously it's nominating Donald Trump.

There are large segments of both parties that only want purity. They do not believe in compromise or negotiations or discussions to reach a middle ground. We can look at this message board. I am willing to put my hand on a Bible, swear an oath, or get hooked up to a lie detector and state that.

Honestly, the most responsible piece of legislation to come out of BLM protests is a bill from a Libertarian Representative to Congress, Justin Amash, calling to end qualified immunity for government officials when they are alleged to have committed crimes. This isn't even something Congress created in the past, it's a doctrine the unelected super legislature the Supreme Court created over multiple rulings from the 1960s into the 1980s chipping away at congressional legislation. Amash's bill is not just bipartisan in support, it's tripartisan. It is at the moment co-sponsored by 63 Democrats and 1 Republican, Tom McClintock of California.

Of course Pelosi put it in Committee and it's gone nowhere. https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/7085

[Edited on July 15, 2020 at 10:07 AM. Reason : /]

7/15/2020 9:42:36 AM

Geppetto
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so you're basing democrat extremes on American standards over the past 30 years, not current world standards nor 1940s American democratic policies? I'd still question the claim, but extreme would have slightly more meritt with those constraints.

But wouldn't we consider that an awfully constrained view by which to call someone extreme? It's like saying 5'10 and 160lbs is the perfect weight for a guy and 158 is too skinny and 162 is too fat.

7/15/2020 9:49:51 AM

rwoody
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^^I didn't even see the 2 extremes, but everything in that post about Dems is bullshit. Biden was basically the most moderate of all the candidates in the primary. The house progressive caucus has less than half of the Dems and most of those are nowhere near the edges. Senate has Bernie, Warren, Markey (although he is facing a very strong primary challenge from the right) and Gillibrand. The leadership is about as moderate as you can get with Pelosi and Schumer.

Meanwhile Republicans are almost universally crawling over themselves to line up with Trump. Who opposed him at all, Romney maybe? Who else?


Also the qual immunity Co write is pressley, a member of the progressive caucus, and Markey, Warren and Sanders introduced a similar bill in the senate.

[Edited on July 15, 2020 at 10:05 AM. Reason : E]

7/15/2020 10:01:34 AM

thegoodlife3
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Quote :
" Honestly, the most responsible piece of legislation to come out of BLM protests is a bill from a Libertarian Representative to Congress, Justin Amash"


longtime beacon of the Libertarian Party, Justin Amash

7/15/2020 10:45:43 AM

bdmazur
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Quote :
"Both parties are kicking out their moderates in primaries with low participation rates and the highly motivated more extreme base in each party cheer that fact. The Democrats have moved left in the past 15 years and the Republicans have moved right in the past 15 years. Bill Clinton and Al Gore would've never been nominated by this Democratic Party."


HAHAHAHA Bullshit. Bill Clinton and Al Gore wouldn't win today because they were too far left. Pelosi and Biden are still the power brokers, and they are the most conservative Democrats that can be found outside of the last remaining Dixiecrats. Just because Obama's court legalized gay marriage and he was able to pass a healthcare plan (which the Democratic moderates in congress let the republicans rip to shreds) does not mean the party made any shift to the left. Look how much as been undone in the name of compromise and reaching accross the aisle.

The Democratic party is extreme for sure...extremely centrist and too afraid to stir the pot.

7/15/2020 1:35:18 PM

Flyin Ryan
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http://ballot-access.org/2020/07/14/u-s-district-court-denies-pennsylvania-ballot-access-relief-to-minor-parties/

Quote :
"On July 14, U.S. District Court Judge Edward G. Smith, an Obama appointee, denied any ballot access relief to minor parties petitioning in Pennsylvania. Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania v Wolf, e.d., 5:20cv-2299. Here is the 32-page opinion. http://ballot-access.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/pacer2.pdf

The petitioning period in Pennsylvania for minor party and independent candidates began on February 19 and ends on August 3. The order says on page 25, “Pennsylvania has begun its process of reopening, and in-person signature collection is less burdensome.” The order also depends on the testimony of Jason Henry, Political Director for the Pennsylvania Democratic Party. The Democratic Party had intervened in this case to oppose any relief. Of course, Democrats who petitioned this year for the primary did so in the period ending February 18, before the health crisis began. The order quotes Henry as saying that the absence of large gatherings is not an impediment, because signatures obtained at large gatherings tend to result in many invalid signatures. He said that petitioners can use sterilizing pens and use personal protective equipment. He said that ballot crowding “frustrates efforts to inform the electorate on differences among the candidates, places undue emphasis on ballot position, and may prevent successful candidates from winning a majority.”

The opinion mentions all the cases in other states in which ballot access relief was denied, and mostly ignores all the cases that ruled in favor of ballot access relief. The opinion even cites Acosta v Wolf, in which another U.S. District Court Judge in the eastern district of Pennsylvania ruled against ballot access relief for an independent congressional candidate. The Acosta decision is flawed because it erroneously says that the plaintiff needed 1,000 signatures. Actually he needed 5,752."


Erie County LP chair in the discussion:

Quote :
"The Governor made it illegal to gather signatures! A federal judge is basically telling us we should have defied a public health order. And why the hell were the Democrats involved in this case? How did they have standing, the case has nothing to do with them."


Both parties nationwide are pulling this shit, Democrats are more pronounced at it though to make sure Biden is the only alternative on the ballot to Trump. Richard Winger in the comments who has published Ballot Access News since the 1970s says: "the Democratic Party tried to keep certain third party or independent presidential candidates off the ballot in some states in 1936, 1940, 1948, 1976, 1980, 2004, and now again in 2020." 2004 was the Democrats' militant reaction to Nader 2000. 1980 was the Carter re-elect campaign trying to stop John Anderson from having any legitimacy. 1976 I'm not sure but that might've been a reaction to Eugene McCarthy who ran as an independent for president that year. 1948 would've been the Harry Wallace and Strom Thurmond splinter campaigns. 1936 and 1940 I don't know, maybe the Democrats being anti-communist/socialist. 1936 had the Union Party run which would've been Huey Long's political vehicle if he hadn't been assassinated.

[Edited on July 15, 2020 at 2:42 PM. Reason : /]

7/15/2020 2:26:48 PM

Geppetto
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Disenfranchisement is disenfranchisement, so neither party should remove choice from ballots.

While that is an interesting historical anecdote, I'm confused if that is supposed to support the notion of democrats now being extremists or if it is an entirely separate point.

7/15/2020 3:52:59 PM

moron
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Quote :
"
The difference between 2016 and 2020 is pretty simple if you compare this poll to the late June 2016 Q-poll.

% of people who feel STRONGLY unfavorable about a candidate in June 2016:

Clinton: 50%
Trump: 48%

and in July 2020...

Biden: 31%
Trump: 53%"


I can’t see trump turning this around in 3 months, but it’s possible.

Also shows why Bernie might have lost. He would certainly have much higher unfavorables than Biden now.

[Edited on July 15, 2020 at 4:04 PM. Reason : ]

7/15/2020 4:03:07 PM

marko
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He doesn't have to turn anything around. He just has to hold on to power.

7/15/2020 4:29:19 PM

A Tanzarian
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Parscale gets the boot.

7/15/2020 9:02:01 PM

moron
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Quote :
" New ABC/WaPo poll has Biden ahead by 15 points, 55-40."


Trump has a new campaign manager, and his poll numbers are abysmal.

How crazy will it be when joe Biden has one of the biggest landslides in election history...

7/19/2020 1:51:31 AM

NyM410
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It’s unfathomable to me that Trump has essentially checked out of even talking about COVID. Aside from “open the schools” there is zero plan. Like even if things do get drastically better by Nov 3 (which is admittedly a huge long shot) he won’t be able to really get any credit for it considering he’s essentially not interested in it. Just a terrible person but also really terrible political instincts.

And no one with a brain thinks any of the nonsense attacks calling Joe Biden of all people a Marxist who is for violent crime will actually stick.

7/19/2020 7:18:49 AM

rwoody
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Flyin ryan: "the dem party has gone extreme left"

Joe Biden:
Quote :
"??????Former Ohio Gov. John Kasich, a Republican, is expected to speak at the Democratic National Convention on Biden's behalf next month. #RepublicansForBiden https://t.co/2HeUnTQzaN"



[Edited on July 20, 2020 at 11:17 AM. Reason : E]

7/20/2020 11:17:22 AM

Flyin Ryan
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Look, both of the major parties are disasters that use their existing power to squash any competition both internally (e.g. Sanders) and externally (e.g. there are 60 plus ballot access lawsuits this year alone that elected Democrats and Republicans are using state financial resources to fight against). This has allowed very well organized outside organizations to effectively control their primary process down ballot to where people outside the going rights concerns of major campaign donor groups are not tolerated. Right to Life involved itself in my Mayoral primary to ensure a pro-choice Republican was not nominated even when abortion plays zero role in city government. (The candidate they backed then lost massively in the general.) I know of a Democratic state legislature candidate in Virginia that when she had a view contrary to the majority of her party concerning guns was told she was persona non grata. I know of a Democratic state legislator in Indianapolis that was on-board with school reform, and her district was the one that disintegrated when redistricting came.

If you pay attention to the race for president, and that is it, you are an ignorant fool. And the Democrats and Republicans use your ignorance to their advantage.

As far as Kasich, he's Mitt Romney in the party at this point as far as "he's no longer invited to the power player club parties". I forget the name of the Democrat that spoke at the 2004 RNC and then challenged Chris Matthews to a duel but him speaking in the Democratic National Convention is in line with that. I'd've voted for Kasich in 2016 due to everyone else I liked dropped out except I chose to vote for a worthless piece of shit that I hated named Ted Cruz in an effort to stop Trump that failed.

[Edited on July 20, 2020 at 1:54 PM. Reason : /]

7/20/2020 1:50:51 PM

Bullet
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Quote :
"forget the name of the Democrat that spoke at the 2004 RNC and then challenged Chris Matthews to a duel but him speaking in the Democratic National Convention is in line with that."


I'd forgotten about that guy, Zel Miller. He said something about Kerry defending the nation with spitballs. He died in 2018.

7/20/2020 3:49:02 PM

rwoody
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^^are democrats being driven by the left, or keeping the left out? Those are two mutually exclusive arguments

7/20/2020 5:16:18 PM

StTexan
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The “left” will need to cater but it is an obvious choice. Biden team or Trump team. Fuck Trump

7/22/2020 2:22:35 AM

NyM410
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https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1285943403079962625?s=21

Oh, come on..

7/22/2020 10:30:46 AM

shoot
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History is gonna repeat itself. This one is gonna go exactly like the 1984's. Walter Mondale, former VP of Dem picked a woman VP and lost in a landslide to Reagan and Bush.

[Edited on July 22, 2020 at 10:40 AM. Reason : Trump and Pence are on the way to become Reagan and Bush of the 21st century]

7/22/2020 10:39:47 AM

NyM410
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Salient point.

7/22/2020 11:06:28 AM

bdmazur
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Reagan had a far higher approval rating in 1984, didn't he? Not all that great, but compared to Trump now the country adored him.

7/22/2020 11:44:06 PM

shoot
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Yes Reagan is a legend. We can’t expect Trump to be at the same level of greatness.

7/23/2020 8:24:23 AM

shoot
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He is a little bit like Andrew Johnson actually, a Raleigh-made potus. Republican president who got impeached but survived.

7/23/2020 9:45:12 AM

NyM410
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Q (from just down the road from where I grew up) is a very solid pollster.

https://twitter.com/stevekornacki/status/1286360844364849158?s=21

This is a landslide type number. Obviously Trump has no chance even with a Biden .01% win in Florida. Basically saying “the olds can die for all I care” is not a good campaign promise from Don.

7/23/2020 2:12:49 PM

rwoody
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Clinton maxed out at +8 with some lower rated pollers, and pogoed back and forth. Trump hasn't led a FL poll since early March. Interesting that Biden's favorability and vote preference flip flops among independents.

7/23/2020 2:24:23 PM

StTexan
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Kinda bad he only gets 50% of hispanic vote

7/23/2020 7:52:13 PM

rwoody
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Trump is relatively strong with Hispanics anyway and then Florida has a pretty big Cuban population that trends conservative

7/23/2020 8:26:21 PM

StTexan
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The cuban population I buy. The strong with hispanics would be a hard sell for me

7/23/2020 8:28:48 PM

rwoody
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Relatively, compared to Black population. He's regularly at 20-40% whereas he struggles to break double digits with Black voters.

7/23/2020 8:34:23 PM

StTexan
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Their proportions are relatively the same. Wonder what makes blacks twice as less favorable in that poll than hispanics? What could it possibly be?

7/23/2020 8:47:32 PM

rwoody
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I honestly can't tell if you're being sarcastic

7/23/2020 8:49:35 PM

StTexan
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I honestly wonder if Trump has been so awful in my eyes toward hispanics how come they are twice as likely to be against Biden than African Americans. Even excluding cuban vote in 1 state, still seems quite drastic.

7/23/2020 8:53:56 PM

rwoody
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I was starting to answer but I'm not knowledgeable enough to walk the line of being a white guy attributing views to a non-white population. But this article has some answers, although doesn't explain why Trump got more support than Romney
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/hispanic-republicans-yep-they-re-here-stay-says-author-geraldo-n1215556

7/23/2020 9:03:13 PM

bbehe
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100 days

7/26/2020 11:05:52 AM

horosho
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This is a huge compromise to the people who think candidate/party/system are flawed but prioritize getting Trump out . This allows us to do both so I hope you all participate and help spread it as much as possible.

7/27/2020 2:51:50 AM

rwoody
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Lmao at that bottom line

7/27/2020 9:36:55 AM

Geppetto
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There is so much wrong with that graphic.

7/27/2020 11:15:57 AM

HaLo
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I guess Horoshos only hope for his leader is if the dem vote splinters so he’s gonna keep pushing this multi party bullshit

7/27/2020 12:54:07 PM

horosho
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This isn't meant for everyone and is specifically geared towards people who reject both democrats and republicans but would rather not see one in power. It takes care of the election outcome in swing states while recording rejection of the two party system in the other 44 states. If you're a proud/devout democrat or republican, then its obviously not directed at you because you won't ever have a decision to make.

I know my guy can't win. Its not even about that. The wisdom of it is if he gets a substantial number of votes, democrats will look at that and wonder "how can we get those votes next time?". Republicans will do the same with respect to the libertarian party platform. The larger those vote tallies are, the more the two parties will improve.

1% got us serious talk about the green new deal, medicare for all, and student debt relief. What would 5 % get us? 10%?

[Edited on July 27, 2020 at 1:24 PM. Reason : k]

7/27/2020 1:22:56 PM

rwoody
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Yea man we get it. It's still really silly to try to plan your voted based on predicted swing states, especially with all the recent polling. They change all the time.

[Edited on July 27, 2020 at 3:59 PM. Reason : E]

7/27/2020 3:59:23 PM

StTexan
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A little more accurate

7/27/2020 7:05:15 PM

aaronburro
Sup, B
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Here we go!
Set em up ----->

[Edited on November 3, 2020 at 9:33 PM. Reason : ]

11/3/2020 9:23:50 PM

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