Conf by conf with contenders first and people that need help second

ACC: No super contenders without help. GT/Clemson in contention with some help.

Big 10: tOSU/UM with the winner with a real chance. No one else in contention.

Big East: UL/WVU with a real chance. Rutgers in contention (yes they are good.. who knew?). Pitt can get a BCS bid if they win out but no chance otherwise.

Big 12: No super contenders. Texas only other team in contention with help.

SEC: No super contenders without help. LSU/UF/Auburn/Ark/Tenn all have a chance with help.

Pac-10: USC is a front runner should they survive tonight. Cal in contention should they beat USC and win out.

Indys: Notre Dame should they win out (how can I forget my fave team since the time I could walk, Notre Dame)
Thoughts?

[Edited on October 14, 2006 at 11:16 PM. Reason : damn good catch I forgot then Indy's]

10/14/2006 11:13:09 PM

you left out 2 of the main teams

notre dame

tennessee

10/14/2006 11:15:10 PM

OSU v. USC cause USC is the luckiest damn team alive.

10/14/2006 11:15:34 PM

notre dame will not play for a national championship

10/14/2006 11:16:04 PM

definitely think you left out tennessee, especially over arkansas

[Edited on October 14, 2006 at 11:17 PM. Reason : tennessee]

10/14/2006 11:16:55 PM

^^its not even a longshot. its a good possibility. if they win out and the big east teams lose they might be in there.

jumping texas

[Edited on October 14, 2006 at 11:18 PM. Reason : and i hate nd just as much as the next guy]

10/14/2006 11:18:03 PM

I want Ohio State to lose. I want UM vs UF for my dream, but I would settle for at least one of the two...

10/14/2006 11:22:17 PM

Quote :

"Up next: A game this Friday at UConn. Poor UConn. But no one is talking about the Huskies. Instead, Louisville is on Morgantown's mind. That's where the Mountaineers play on Nov. 2 in what shapes up to be not just one of the biggest games of the season -- but perhaps the biggest game in Big East history."

True. This will be one of the teams in the BCS Champ. game. Book it. Yes, I'm from CT and I'm a Big East homer.. so be it. Troll on. Go WVU!!

10/14/2006 11:38:35 PM

well, this season has sure proven that there are no givens. That being said, its just too early to make any solid predictions. You never know when a Vanderbuilt or Arkansas will beat you (and I mean no disrespect to Arkansas, its just that no one saw them coming). As for educated gueses: Winner of OSU v UM is a decent bet as one team. If USC can beat Cal they stand a good chance as well. WVU V UL winner has a fairly good chance, but who knows with Rutgers and Pitt looming. As for the rest its up in the air, still too much football to play.

10/14/2006 11:59:23 PM

it'll be OSU vs. someone in the national championship

it doesnt matter who the other team is, no one ever remembers who comes in second place

10/15/2006 12:07:39 AM

you people act like cal is better than nd

10/15/2006 12:08:08 AM

No, we act like USC will already have at least one loss going into the ND game

10/15/2006 12:14:36 AM

Well, that depends on which ND team shows up. Is it the one who showed up for Penn State (please God, I hope so) or the one who showed up for Michigan and the first three quarters of Michigan State? But it all goes back to the fact that there is simply too much football left to play.

10/15/2006 9:17:59 AM

IF USC loses one down the stretch, I could easily see if OSU loses to UM at the end of the season, UM and OSU would still meet in the National Champioship game.

10/15/2006 12:07:17 PM

that won't happen. because then if osu win the national championship game but lost to them in the shoe who is the champion? osu would be but it would seem like a tie

the loser of that game will drop behind alot of the 1 loss teams

10/15/2006 12:10:37 PM

assuming the game is close, no way the loser drops out of the top 5, IF USC loses sometime, it will already be a matchup of #1 & #2

10/15/2006 12:12:45 PM

The only contenders are any BCS undefeated and strong BCS teams with only one loss. All two-loss teams are eliminated. So here's all contenders with their relative order in conference, who they lost, and any contender vs. contender games remaining.

ACC - championship game

Boston College - lost at NC State, won at home to Clemson, at Wake Forest remaining
Clemson - lost at Boston College, won at Wake Forest, that loss means that if both run the table BC should be ahead of Clemson, home to Georgia Tech remaining
Georgia Tech - lost at home to Notre Dame, that loss means in my opinion that GT could not be selected ahead of Notre Dame if both ran the table, at Clemson remaining
Wake Forest - lost at home to Clemson, no chance but I'll be nice, home to Boston College

unlikely that an ACC team gets picked

Big 12 - championship game

Nebraska - lost away to Southern Cal, so could not get picked ahead of USC if both finished with one loss, home to Texas, home to Missouri, and at Texas A&M remaining
Texas - lost at home to Ohio State, so could not get picked ahead of Ohio State if both finished with one loss, at Nebraska and home to Texas A&M remaining
Texas A&M - lost at home to Texas Tech, home to Nebraska and at Texas A&M remaining
Missouri - lost at Texas A&M, so could not get picked ahead of Texas A&M if both finished with one loss, at Nebraska remaining

the two strongest teams lost to two of the remaining undefeateds, so even if those teams lost, it's hard to argue they should jump ahead of them, especially Texas with Ohio State

Big East

Louisville - undefeated, home to West Virginia, at Rutgers, and at Pittsburgh remaining
West Virginia - undefeated, at Louisville, at Pittsburgh, and home to Rutgers remaining
Rutgers - undefeated, some one-loss teams probably would get selected ahead of them, at Pittsburgh, home to Louisville, and at West Virginia remaining
Pittsburgh - lost at home to Michigan State, no chance but I'll be nice, home to Rutgers, home to West Virginia, and home to Louisville remaining

whoever wins the Louisville-West Virginia game and then goes undefeated will be the best chance for the Big East

Big Ten

Ohio State - undefeated, won at Texas, home to Michigan remaining
Michigan - undefeated, at Ohio State remaining
Wisconsin - lost at Michigan, so they should fall behind them if each have one loss, no contender games remaining

If they both enter the game undefeated, whoever wins between Michigan and Ohio State will be in the national championship game

Pac-10

Southern Cal - undefeated, won at home to Nebraska and at Arkansas, home to Oregon, home to Cal, and home to Notre Dame remaining
Cal - lost at Tennessee, defeated Oregon at home, should fall behind Tennessee if both finish with one loss, at Southern Cal remaining
Oregon - lost at Cal, should fall behind Cal if both finish with one loss, at Southern Cal remaining

It will be hard to argue against Southern Cal if they go undefeated. I would put them ahead of the Louisville-West Virginia winner and no other BCS schools could go undefeated.

Southeastern - championship game

(Note: this conference is a jumble, the order is set by who beats who means their better and so on)

Arkansas - lost at home to Southern Cal, won at Auburn, so Southern Cal should be ahead of Arkansas if both end the season with one loss, home to Tennessee remaining
Auburn - lost to Arkansas at home, defeated Florida at home, so Arkansas should be ahead of Auburn if both finish with one loss
Florida - lost at Auburn, won at Tennessee, so Auburn should be ahead of Florida if both finish with one loss, although they would then meet in the conference championship game
Tennessee - lost at home to Florida, defeated Cal at home, so Florida should be ahead of Tennessee if both finish with one loss, at Arkansas remaining

the culture of the national championship today means that going 12-0 in a not-so-great BCS conference is better than going 11-2 in a great conference, hard to see the SEC getting any teams in the national championship if there are 3 undefeated teams like it's looking right now

Notre Dame - lost at home to Michigan, won at Georgia Tech, should fall behind Michigan if both finish one loss, at Southern Cal to end the season remaining

Notre Dame can make the national championship but these things would have to happen.

1.) Run the table, meaning being the first team to defeat USC at home in 4 years.
2.) Michigan defeats Ohio State (not a definite, but I think it's necessary)
3.) All SEC teams finish with 2 losses. (looking likely right now)
4.) The winner of the Louisville-West Virginia loses once. (not a definite, but I think it's necessary)

These things are all very doable. The SEC signed their own death warrant by going after money with their conference championship game. A case can be made against the Big East due to their lack of schedule. Can't pick USC over Notre Dame if Notre Dame beats USC. There might be some disgruntlement at having a rematch between Michigan and Notre Dame, but what other matchup could happen in the above circumstances?

10/15/2006 1:15:27 PM

1 loss teams that are in the 20s now don't have much chance.

10/15/2006 2:07:22 PM

Quote :

"Southern Cal - undefeated, won at home to Nebraska and at Arkansas,"

Look at that again and tell me why USC is overrated? I don't see why there is so much hate on USC. Arkansas is ranked now and is a good team. Nebraska is solid. After USC beats Cal and Oregon you cannot say they do not belong in the title game with tOSU like I predicted preseason. Every year they prove the doubters. But Oklahoma is going to show them real football and kill them in the Championship.

10/16/2006 12:42:24 AM