I just read a fascinating scenario in The Economist.

The Chinese population of 1.3 billion is currently breeding at 1.7 children per women. The U.S. population of 300 million, on the other hand, is running at 2.1 children per women. When this rate of reproduction is combined with America's voracious immigration rate there will be 400 million Americans "as early as 2043."

Ok, the quote:
"Can the world cope with a relentlessly expanding America? Many non-Americans will shudder at the prospect, but which alternative superpower would the prefer? China? If demography is destiny, they will not have to find out what a Chinese Hyperpower looks like: the fertility rate in China is only 1.7, and there are almost no immigrants."

10/17/2006 10:53:44 PM

If we knew it was going to be this much trouble, we would've never invented gunpowder.

10/17/2006 11:53:14 PM

I bet we hit 400 million before 2043.

The US as a landmass is about the same size as China, with about 1/4th the population, with the mid-west still being quite desolate.

We'll only run in to problems if we can't find a way to keep people well fed, happy, and productive.

Apart from births, immigration is probably the next biggest unified chunk of our population growth. Finding a way to manage those immigrants will be the first step in insuring we don't collapse under the weight of immigrants (this is a problem which the capitalist system can solve, if the Republicans would stop sticking their fingers in things).

10/18/2006 12:03:14 AM