Is there any snow/sleet/ice/freezing rain etc etc in the long range forecast?

Discuss your thoughts on the forecast and what the chance of getting any frozen stuff is.

My rankings: 1-10,
1: Very small chance of some minor frozen precipitation, likely mixed with rain, no accumulation.
3: Good chance of some small amount of frozen precipitation. Could either be a high chance of being all frozen with little or no accumulation, or could be that it will likely be rain, but if it turned frozen could be higher accumulations.
5: Almost certainly will get some amount of frozen precipitation with a good chance of small accumulation. Total amounts are not likely to be enough to cause major problems.
7: Significant storm expected, school likely shut down, at least an inch of accumulation expected, good chance for more.
9: Major storm. A couple inches of accumulation assured, over 6 inches possible, local accumulations could exceed 9 inches.

Even numbers fill in the blanks. That giant storm 7 years back would qualify as a 10.


I'm giving Monday morning 12/4 my first 1 of the season (note that a 1 is about a 10% chance of a small amount of mixed frozen precipitation with no travel problems).

The rain should end around 1 am, before the low around 5 am on Monday morning of 34-35. Even if the rain is slow to arrive and depart, the extra cloud cover would likely keep temps around 38 throughout the morning.

[Edited on December 2, 2006 at 10:50 PM. Reason : spelng]

12/2/2006 10:31:29 PM

it's going to be a very dry winter, bitter cold, and windy.

there will be spots of cold rain and light snow.

the northern states will be crushed under relentless snowfall and subzero temps, but what else is new.

12/2/2006 10:36:55 PM

here in nova I give monday morn a 2

12/2/2006 10:38:20 PM

here in south central sweden, it began about one month ago

12/2/2006 10:48:04 PM

I hope we get something

I think it didn't snow at all last year

12/2/2006 11:12:28 PM

^ It did not. We got like 6 days of 32 degree rain though
The year before that we only got one day of snow..that day we got 0.5" and it shut down traffic for 12 hours.

12/2/2006 11:24:59 PM

16 dropped inches by noon on friday

12/2/2006 11:49:57 PM

all you people in raleigh can suck my balls.

i'm in wisconsin. it is currently 14 outside. it snowed a few inches a couple days ago and my parking lot still isn't clear. anything that looks like water is really just black ice. driving sucks. it's not going to be above freezing for 3 months.

stfu.

12/3/2006 12:11:14 AM

^ lol. My sister lives in Madison, so I get to hear about all that. But hey, we lived in Buffalo, NY for 4 years so I feel like I've paid my dues.

12/3/2006 12:46:47 AM

Quote :

"all you people in raleigh can suck my balls. i'm in wisconsin. it is currently 14 outside. it snowed a few inches a couple days ago and my parking lot still isn't clear. anything that looks like water is really just black ice. driving sucks. it's not going to be above freezing for 3 months. stfu."

Feel free to trade. That's my idea of paradise.

12/3/2006 12:59:39 AM

^^That's where I am. Luckily we missed most of the recent storm - lots of people only an hour from here got 6x the snow.

^What would I be getting in trade?

12/3/2006 1:07:12 AM

Quote :

"all you people in raleigh can suck my balls. i'm in wisconsin. it is currently 14 outside. it snowed a few inches a couple days ago and my parking lot still isn't clear. anything that looks like water is really just black ice. driving sucks. it's not going to be above freezing for 3 months. stfu. "

YOU STFU. You chose to live in Wisconsin...WTF do you expect????? Idiot.

[Edited on December 3, 2006 at 1:33 AM. Reason : and besides, up there its expected of you go to get snow tires that can handle ice]

12/3/2006 1:32:31 AM

Forcast for tomorrow morning has not deteriorated to any significant degree, so frozen weather chance is reduced to a 0.

12/3/2006 9:52:15 AM

this thread makes me LAFF

12/3/2006 1:59:41 PM

Should have made it for 2006/2007 b/c nothing usually happens in December..

[Edited on December 3, 2006 at 2:03 PM. Reason : ds]

12/3/2006 2:02:12 PM

when my Yankee relatives visit for Christmas they check the weather back home every day and laugh

12/3/2006 2:03:56 PM

http://www.weather.com/outlook/recreation/outdoors/wxdetail/27607?dayNum=9

haha

(this said rain/snow when i posted it)

12/3/2006 2:16:57 PM

Quote :

" FXUS62 KRAH 031956 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 256 PM EST SUN DEC 3 2006 .SYNOPSIS... SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE DELMARVA REGION...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SW THROUGH CENTRAL VA AND CENTRAL/WESTERN NC/SC. INVERTED TROF WAS LOCATED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS NORTHERN GA...WESTERN NC AND CENTRAL WV. ANALYSIS OF COASTAL AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS OFF THE GA/FL/SC COAST INDICATE A DEVELOPING 1021 MB SFC LOW ROUGHLY 50-100 MILES EAST/ENE OF SAVANNAH GA. TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL NC CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE SC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WELL AHEAD OF H5 TROF DIGGING ESE ACROSS THE MS RIVER. CURRENT OBS SHOW DRY AIR OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...EXCEPT IN FAR S/SE LOCATIONS WHERE ADVANCING CLOUD COVER AND VIRGA HAVE RAISED DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 30S. LOW-LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED UP ENOUGH ALREADY TO SUPPORT LIGHT SHOWERS FROM WEAK RADAR RETURNS OVER THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE BEST LIFT ASSOC/W THE SFC LOW OCCURRING BETWEEN 00-06Z ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SOUTHERN PINES...TO DURHAM...TO KERR LAKE AS THE LOW MOVES NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A RATHER SHARP WEST-EAST CUTOFF OF PRECIP AS IS TYPICALLY SEEN WITH COASTAL SYSTEMS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THE TRIAD AREA MAY GET NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES UNLESS THE SFC LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST. CONVERSELY...IF THE LOW TRACKS A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WOULD MISS CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THE NAM/GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...FEEL CONFIDENT IN A PRECIP CUTOFF SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND WILL TAPER POPS FROM CATEGORICAL AND HIGH LIKELY IN THE E/SE COASTAL PLAIN TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NW PIEDMONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STORM TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE AT MOST. PRECIP WILL END FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES QUICKLY FOLLOWING AS COLD...DRY AIRMASS ASSOC/W STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. "

[Edited on December 3, 2006 at 3:40 PM. Reason : ]

12/3/2006 3:39:15 PM

the weather channel sucks

Go to http://www.weather.gov for actual forecasting.

12/3/2006 5:16:08 PM

I live in Madison

driving is no big deal

it snowed 16 inches the other morning and i drove 100 miles back to madison a few hours later...and i aint scared of the cold

12/3/2006 6:19:28 PM

boy can't wait for winter to start

1/4/2007 9:56:45 PM

cold rain in march

all month long

1/4/2007 10:05:23 PM

Don't hold your breath. El niño is making sure we have a mild and wet(ish) winter.

1/4/2007 10:05:33 PM

I'm predicting crazy cold for the second half of january

1/4/2007 11:23:49 PM

1/8/2007 11:40:27 PM

^which means what to the lay man?

1/9/2007 12:29:03 AM

it will snow on the 18th of Januar.....bet on it

1/9/2007 12:40:39 AM

That's an outrageous lie.

1/9/2007 6:12:38 PM

The boo-chilliness is on its way...hopefully....by the middle of the month.

1/10/2007 8:48:32 PM

this should have been the 2006-07 thread

1/17/2007 10:10:22 PM

Quote :

"it will snow on the 18th of Januar.....bet on it"

http://www.weather.com/weather/wxdetail/USNC0558?dayNum=1&from=36hr_fcst_undeclared
well dang. its not supposed to be bad, but snow is snow

1/17/2007 10:20:35 PM

Quote :

"it will snow on the 18th of January.....bet on it "

FTW!

1/18/2007 9:34:22 AM

^ how did that work out so well?

1/18/2007 9:35:33 AM

whoa. good prediction.

1/18/2007 9:35:44 AM

nice one

1/18/2007 5:04:51 PM

It always snows on the 18th of January.

1/18/2007 6:01:10 PM

we had flipping hurricane-like weather last night







and I live in Germany. wtf.

1/19/2007 4:57:31 AM