5 days away.

Predictions?

1/3/2008 9:24:32 PM

it is all going to come down to Super Tuesday for both parties, no mater who wins in NH or SC.

1/3/2008 9:27:20 PM

you mean to tell me if obama wins like the first 3 primaries thats not gonna make a difference come feb 05?

1/4/2008 12:19:40 AM

Remember, the NH primary also has the vice presidential primary

1/4/2008 12:22:32 AM

Predictions

Democrats:
Given Obama's victory speech in Iowa about uniting the country and mentioning that he values independent and republican votes, along with the momentum his campaign gains from the victory in Iowa, I think he's going to sweep the Democratic side in the NH primary.

Republicans:
Not totally sure what to expect here, but I see McCain gaining a lot of ground and Ron Paul definitely coming out and surprising the political pundits... the others (Huck, Mitt, and Rudy) will probably come in around 10-15% each.

1/4/2008 12:39:54 AM

^^what?

1/4/2008 12:40:51 AM

Quote :

"Poll: Obama opens double-digit lead over Clinton MANCHESTER, New Hampshire (CNN) -- With Tuesday's New Hampshire primary fast approaching, Sen. Barack Obama has opened a double-digit lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton in the state, a CNN-WMUR poll found Sunday. Obama, the first-term senator from Illinois who won last week's Iowa caucuses, led the New York senator and former first lady 39 percent to 29 percent in a poll conducted Saturday and Sunday -- a sharp change from a poll out Saturday that showed the Democratic front-runners tied at 33 percent. Support for former Sen. John Edwards, who edged out Clinton for second place in Iowa, dropped from 20 percent in Saturday's poll to 16 percent. On the Republican side, Sen.John McCain leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by a narrower margin -- 32 percent to 26 percent, the survey found. Former Arkansas Gov.Mike Huckabee -- whose upset win in Iowa came after being outspent by millions of dollars by Romney -- passed former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani to gain third place."

Cotdamn, what a great year for a political junkie. I thought I had kicked the stuff but I'm back on it. Obama goes into New Hampshire with a 10 point lead over the self-ordained next president while the former Republican "given" is now a 4th place "also-ran" to a low budget Arkansas governor.

Of course, this could all change again on super Tuesday.

AND Bloomberg is considering a 3rd party run (even though he brings nothing to the table that Hillary Clinton or Rudy Giuliani has already brought); add in Ron Paul and its very possible we'll be looking at a 4 horse race in November.

1/7/2008 8:21:23 AM

Unless Ron Paul pulls off a nice showing in the primaries my bets are on the fact that he'll fade away after the primaries.


Now what would be neat is to see him on a ticket as a VP. Though he seems pretty reviled by the repubs so the only person I could even imagine him running with is McCain.

1/7/2008 8:34:55 AM

mccain and huck are butt buddies. If McCain win the nomination, he will take huckabee to give him better evangelical support.

Either way, after NH, Romney will still be winning in terms of delegates, only problem is that he wont have any momentum to carry him into the antimormon state of SC. Thats where he will start to see the end of the road, IMO. BUT ... He will stay in through super duper tuesday.

1/7/2008 8:48:09 AM

^^ I thought so too, but someone made a good point; campaigns aren't killed by lack of voters, they're killed by lack of money. Ron Paul has very aggressive supporters and the ability to run a 3rd party candidacy. Do I think he'd win? Hell no, but it'd be interesting. If he doesn't run, and Bloomberg does, give the race to the Republicans.

1/7/2008 9:11:25 AM

Yea, I guess he is funded fairly well. I'd like to see an independent candidate win, but not Paul nor Bloomberg.

1/7/2008 9:14:16 AM

I'm saying Obama takes it, and Richardson drops out.

1/7/2008 4:31:54 PM

I think Richardson will stay in, and may actually get some additional airtime due to the artifical "lift" he will get from New Hampshire being a primary instead of a caucus. If he gets 10% in NH, it will come accross as a small surge after Iowa's 2%, even though he was getting about 10% support in the caucuses in Iowa.

Richardson is probably now hoping that Hillary will drop out, and that he could find himself overtaking Edwards for the #2 spot by Feb 5 and maybe setting himself up for a VP bid.

1/7/2008 4:50:04 PM

I really don't see Clinton dropping out even if she continues to get third up until Super Tuesday.

1/7/2008 4:52:44 PM

I don't either, but if she gets embarrased in NH (loses by 15%), the news out today suggests she might

1/7/2008 4:54:10 PM

Even if she were to drop out, she won't drop out until at least South Carolina.

1/7/2008 5:02:08 PM

omg...just saw the video of clinton crying....what a fucking faker...

1/7/2008 5:16:28 PM

Today is the day.

1/8/2008 12:14:52 PM

Anyone have any links with results and such like they did with Iowa? I am raiding and watching hockey so I don't have time to search myself.

1/8/2008 7:39:28 PM

Clinton is taking an early lead with 7% reporting.

1/8/2008 7:40:42 PM

clinton 38%
obama 36%
edwards 17%

mccain 37
romney 28
huck 12
guil 9

8 percent precincts in...first results in

1/8/2008 7:46:34 PM

Huck's not doing so well, huh?

1/8/2008 7:50:11 PM

people from NH aren't as dumb (religious) as people from Iowa

1/8/2008 7:53:19 PM

9 percent in

obama/clinton tied

1/8/2008 7:54:36 PM

clinton in the lead by like 700 votes so far at 10%

gravel is on pace to get 470 votes

[Edited on January 8, 2008 at 8:00 PM. Reason : paul guiliani kinda fighting for position]

1/8/2008 7:59:27 PM

^ Biden is leading Gravel, its pretty sad when you can't beat a guy who ain't running.

1/8/2008 8:03:21 PM

At 10% in:

McCain , John GOP 6,860 37%
Romney , Mitt GOP 5,182 28%
Huckabee , Mike GOP 2,247 12%
Giuliani , Rudy GOP 1,646 9%
Paul , Ron GOP 1,542 8%

Paul trails Guiliani by about 100 votes - either a great showing for Paul or an awful one for Guiliani... And McCain handily trounces the Stormin Mormon. It shapes up for all to be right with the world. (Sort of.)

On the Dem side:

Clinton , Hillary Dem 10,746 38%
Obama , Barack Dem 10,412 36%
Edwards , John Dem 4,740 17%
Richardson , Bill Dem 1,233 4%
Kucinich , Dennis Dem 575 2%

http://www.yumasun.com/sections/live-results/

1/8/2008 8:05:16 PM

cnn projecting edwards 3rd and mccain first

1/8/2008 8:13:41 PM

Come on Obama, for the simple fact I can't stand Clinton.

1/8/2008 8:18:17 PM

I think Obama will come out with a slight lead over Hillary. And Edwards will of course get third here. South Carolina, where he was born which I believe he won last year, is a real chance for Edwards to get a 1st place in one of the early states and build momentum. It's not a bad place to win in since the last campaign state (ones that didn't violate rules such that candidates would avoid campaigning there) to go before Super Tuesday. It'll be nice to be in the lead going into Super Tuesday.

1/8/2008 8:23:31 PM

this is good tv

1/8/2008 8:29:06 PM

Edwards doesn't stand a chance in SC.

1/8/2008 8:36:27 PM

Clinton 17,713 40% 0 15%
reporting
Obama 15,715 36% 0
Edwards 7,418 17% 0
Richardson 1,899 4% 0
Kucinich 787 2% 0
Biden 79 0% 0
Gravel 61 0% 0
Dodd 37 0% 0

1/8/2008 8:36:52 PM

^^huh? why not

he won it last time didnt he, why not this time?

[Edited on January 8, 2008 at 8:38 PM. Reason : d]

1/8/2008 8:37:24 PM

http://www.politico.com/nhprimaries/nhmap-popup.html

by county results

1/8/2008 8:38:21 PM

go look at some recent polls.

1/8/2008 8:38:46 PM

interesting, i still expect Clinton to come in second, at least she was ahead for a bit...i think in Iowa she wasnt really ever ahead when the results were coming in

[Edited on January 8, 2008 at 8:40 PM. Reason : w]

1/8/2008 8:40:03 PM

more like "thank god she was only in the lead for a bit"

1/8/2008 8:42:16 PM

she is still ahead, 19%, ahead by 1800ish

1/8/2008 8:43:46 PM

SWEET

this is awesome that McCain crushed Romney

hopefully Ron Paul will continue to show strong, too.


and I hope that Clinton beats Obama...I wonder if she might be easier for McCain to beat if he gets the nod...I think she's slightly more moderate and likely a little more competent, and most importantly, it will force Clinton and Obama to bloody each other up on the campaign trail and blow lots of campaign funds.

Huckabee also continues to buddy up to McCain...wonder if it's just campaign "strategery", or if he's thinking ahead to being VP?

Also, I'll give Romney his due--he was a gracious runner up.

1/8/2008 8:49:38 PM

^^yeah but i too am going on the she will come in second thing

idk i think a woman that people hate like clinton or the negro are on level playing field for john mccain basically^


[Edited on January 8, 2008 at 8:51 PM. Reason : .]

1/8/2008 8:49:55 PM

forget the war, lets go back to the 90s economy..."Its the economy, stupid" Stock market tanking, another wave of foreclosures, recession.....McCain trump car was his foreign policy but the big issue is now the economy...not foreign policy....just like in '92


I think Obama will get the young people to the polls, didnt he use crack?

[Edited on January 8, 2008 at 8:54 PM. Reason : w]

1/8/2008 8:53:45 PM

I'm not even considering gender or race...I just think that Obama has the right personality, the right appeal to the swing vote (though McCain does, too), etc, to be a tough opponent.


^ i think foreign policy is a huge deal, but I can't believe how little attention the economy is getting (especially seeing how all of these Republicans are getting their panties in a wad over immigration policy)

[Edited on January 8, 2008 at 8:57 PM. Reason : adsf]

1/8/2008 8:55:47 PM

Hillary opens up 5% lead....this would be a HUGE upset if it holds up(doubt it) but 25% is in

[Edited on January 8, 2008 at 8:59 PM. Reason : 5 now]

1/8/2008 8:56:55 PM

Jesus christ. I have $500 on hillary tonight. I took it at -250 awhile back.

When i saw she was double digits down in the early polls and getting crushed in the exit polls i wrote it off.


This would be sick. She was trading at 99:1 odds earlier tonight. That same $500 would have won $50,000 instead of the $200 im set to win

This year has been nuts so far in politics.... candidates jumping all over the place

1/8/2008 8:59:53 PM

Quote :

"This year has been nuts so far in politics"

1/8/2008 9:02:25 PM

Hillary just took the lead in the futures markets tonight. Shes trading at around 60% to win NH

1/8/2008 9:03:45 PM

She's now a 2 to 1 favorite to carry New Hampshire.


What a monumental victory.


Obama must feel like Dewey right now. Lies, Damn lies, and statistics.

1/8/2008 9:08:37 PM

sounds like they are saying mac attack

1/8/2008 9:15:33 PM

^^and the whole world goes wtf

[Edited on January 8, 2008 at 9:16 PM. Reason : .]

1/8/2008 9:15:47 PM