What gets us in the tourney?

What it might take:
9-7 and one ACCT win
8-8 and semis at best, but more likely the finals
8-8 and wins over UNC and Duke plus one ACCT win

The things that hurt:
- UNO loss
- ECU loss
- 3-0 against Big East but not against any of the EIGHT big east teams in the Top 42 of the RPI

The things that help:
- The relatively strong SOS and decent RPI (though the current 40 with our resume is surely NIT bound)
- Honestly I can't point to any signature win yet so I'm not sure. Maybe winning 3 games in 4 days like the Old Spice?

[Edited on February 10, 2008 at 12:33 PM. Reason : x]

2/10/2008 12:32:46 PM

a miracle

2/10/2008 12:34:10 PM

i'm finding it hard to care anymore.

no offense to you, NyM410.

2/10/2008 12:34:36 PM

atleast 8-8 and a decent showing in the tourney. we are a tournament team -- its in our blood. the Old Spice tourney is some proof to this. if we can validate this in the ACC Tourney, as well as have atleast a .500 record, we have a shot of getting in.

2/10/2008 12:39:03 PM

None taken...

I hope we make it for sure. It's always more fun to watch the NCAAT when you have a real rooting interest. UConn is surely already a lock (they are playing for a 2 or 3 seed at this point) and I'm really hoping we can turn it around and make it too...

^ the problem with the ACC this year is there just aren't any signature wins available outside of UNC or Duke. Clemson is decent but the ACC is a mediocre conference this year. Most consistent in terms of RPI, but that consistency is from the mediocrity.

For instance here are the teams in the Top 40 of the RPI by major conference (at least the 4 that actually matter b/c the Big 10 and SEC are plain pathetic this year):

Big East: 7 (actually 6 -- WVU slipped a bit)
Big XII: 5
Pac-10: 5
ACC: 3

I just don't see 8-8 being enough without wins over both UNC & Duke and a few wins in the ACCT. 9-7 and we probably need 1 win in the ACCT to be a lock...

[Edited on February 10, 2008 at 12:44 PM. Reason : x]

2/10/2008 12:39:33 PM

Quote :

"What gets us in the tourney?"

2/10/2008 12:42:02 PM

well, I mean I think you answered your own question NyM... pretty spot on

2/10/2008 12:49:29 PM

but the acc is the best conference top to bottom bwahahahahaha

2/10/2008 12:56:04 PM

To me the RPI conference rankings don't really matter and that is what people point to about the ACC. It is what it is. The reality is an RPI of 40 or below puts you in a tenuous at best position to make the tournament. If the season ended today the ACC has 3 locks and that is all it really deserves. We can make up ground and get in position to make it but it's going to take one of the three options in my first post.

Does it really matter if 10 of your 11 conference mates are in the Top 100 of the RPI if none of your potential wins against them will boost you enough to put you in position to make the NCAAs? Not to me it doesn't...

2/10/2008 1:31:13 PM

Quote :

"What gets us in the tourney?"

Winning the ACC tournament.

2/10/2008 2:08:52 PM

Quote :

"Winning the ACC tournament."

2/10/2008 2:17:30 PM

2/10/2008 2:27:29 PM

its impressive because there are no free wins. any game that doesn't involve duke or virginia is a tossup.

if we beat unc or duke and continue to win like we have we should be in

7-9 with a win over unc or duke and 2 acct wins

7-9 with a win over duke and 1 acct win

8-8 with a win over unc or duke and an acct win

7-9 acct finals

9-7

6-10 with a win over unc or duke and trip to the acct sunday

2/10/2008 2:49:40 PM

Good news State fans.

Last night's game gave me the inclination our team has a chance to put together a run now that Costner has returned.

So I ran some updated careful analysis to see what our chances of making the tournament are.

What I've found is that IF we can get to 8-8 in the ACC and win our first round tournament game we are in the tournament with ~95% certainty. It would take some major rumblings in the rest of the world to keep us out of an at-large selection.


Visual Factors: These are the least important factors, but add window dressing to a bubble candidate

- Getting to 8-8 makes us easier to stomach with a .500 conference record.

- Important 20th overall victory


Selection Committee Details: These are what the committee uses to make tough decisions

- A win over a legit NCAA tournament team (a certainty if we win 4 more conf games)

- Strong play down the stretch with a 5-5 overall record in last ten games vs top notch competition

- Late season Road wins



However, the number one influencing factor is our fabolous RPI.

- If we get to 8-8 with a tourney win then subsequent loss to Duke/UNC in round 2 we are ranked top THIRTY in the RPI (M.E. +/- 2)

- If we get to 8-8 with a tourney win then subsequent loss to CU/MD in round 2 we are ranked top THIRTY FIVE in the RPI (M.E. +/- 2)


The committee simply can not leave out a .500 ACC team with 20 overall wins that is ranked top 35 in the RPI. They have unwritten rules that they can't break because they don't want their schools getting left out in subsequent years. There is too much money at stake to snub a deserving candidate.

Basically the season is a best of seven game series for us. If we win the series (4-3) we are playing our way into March if we can beat an ACC bottom feeder on a neutral court first round.

[Edited on February 10, 2008 at 3:39 PM. Reason : a]

2/10/2008 3:37:42 PM

Don't worry guys. We already played the top 4 teams in the ACC on the road.

Now we get to lose to them at home (except for UMD).

2/10/2008 3:37:57 PM

Quote :

"If we win the series (4-3) we are playing our way into March if we can beat an ACC bottom feeder on a neutral court first round."

I agree with rallydurham for the most part, but this scenario (assuming the 3 losses are to UNC/Duke/Clemson) would make me very nervous. I think we'd have to be one of the last teams in or first teams out. That said, I see us pulling out one of the games against UNC/Duke/Clemson to get us in.

[Edited on February 10, 2008 at 4:35 PM. Reason : ()]

2/10/2008 4:16:28 PM

i agree with rally, also looking at the schedule i like our chances

have to beat fsu at home

take 1 of 3 at home vs. duke/unc/clemson

and 2 of 3 on the road vs bc/uva/wf

very doable

with a signature win vs. clem/unc/duke and solid road wins plus one win in the acct i would consider this scenario a lock

[Edited on February 10, 2008 at 4:31 PM. Reason : .]

2/10/2008 4:30:55 PM

Quote :

"It's always more fun to watch the NCAAT when you have a real rooting interest."

you need more than the Fighting Pearls? they are looking at a 1 or 2 depending on the Memphis game

2/10/2008 4:39:18 PM

Quote :

"What gets us in the tourney?"

[Edited on February 10, 2008 at 5:40 PM. Reason : .]

2/10/2008 5:37:25 PM

NCSU = NIT

2/10/2008 6:25:29 PM

^^ Magical homosexual pyramids?

2/10/2008 6:29:47 PM

^ why not? just as likely to work as playing basketball, the way we're playing.

2/10/2008 6:32:36 PM

8-8 in the ACC gets you in, period.

2/10/2008 7:01:32 PM

Not really... The Terps missed out 2 years ago at 8-8 and same with Va Tech 3 years ago. I think we need to beat UNC or Duke and win one, possibly 2 NCAAT games... we just don't have any great wins and we have bad losses.

[Edited on February 10, 2008 at 7:07 PM. Reason : gotta make them up.]

2/10/2008 7:07:05 PM

i just hope we get to play vtech first round in the acc tournament followed by virginia getting lucky in a first round upset


= acc finals


= 20 win season even if we lose 4 of the next 7

2/10/2008 7:07:55 PM

Quote :

"20 win season even if we only lose 4 of the next 7"

2/10/2008 7:09:59 PM

you're right. we'll probably lose 5 or 6 of the next 7 and be completely calling for sids head on a platter b4 seasons end

with a 1st round loss in the NIT

2/10/2008 7:14:04 PM

sounds about right, sadly enough

2/10/2008 7:16:55 PM

Quote :

"i just hope we get to play vtech first round in the acc tournament followed by virginia getting lucky in a first round upset = acc finals"

No, that equals the semifinals

2/10/2008 7:34:05 PM

If we had beaten UNO and ECU none of this would be an issue. We probably could have gone 7-9 with our schedule, EASILY the ACC's toughest, and got in. Those wins would have us at 17-6....only 3 needed for 20. Oh well. I still think 8-8 gets us in because they will look at us being the only team to have to play Duke, UNC, and Clemson twice.

2/10/2008 7:40:09 PM

omg that's right!!! they changed the tourney ddiddint they!!?!?!?! i guess we'd play clempson or some shit in the semis after they beat unc

2/10/2008 7:40:52 PM

Quote :

"What gets us in the tourney?"

AMIRITE?

But seriously - we have to win 75% of our remaining games and could really do with a win over Clemson and either Duke or Carolina so that we don't have to rely on a good showing at the ACCT.

2/10/2008 8:19:00 PM

Quote :

"Not really... The Terps missed out 2 years ago at 8-8 and same with Va Tech 3 years ago."

FYI: In 2000, UVA and UNC tied for third at 9-7. Both lost in the first round of ACC's. UVA didn't get selected, despite sweeping UNC in the regular season. Only time a 9-7 team from the ACC didn't make it, but that was one of the worst years ever for the conference.

I think @BC (falling apart), @UVA (sucks), FSU, and Wake are all great opportunities. Clemson, after tonight, may well still be reeling next weekend (see last year). 9-7 isn't out of the question. Assuming 8-8 (somewhat conservative), getting the 6 seed may be crucial to put off facing Duke or UNC until the semifinals, as the 6 seed gets the 3 in the quarters.

2/10/2008 10:42:06 PM

in no way is predicting 8-8 "conservative".

2/10/2008 10:49:51 PM

Yeah, I know. Anything less, though, and it's off to the newly expanded NIT.

2/10/2008 10:53:18 PM

8-8 I think gets us in.

2/10/2008 10:57:51 PM

if we go 8-8 we need 2 wins in the ACC tournament to make the field. IMO.

2/10/2008 11:01:27 PM

^i think it will depend on the other acc teams' records. as in who all finishes above us in the standings. b/c they clearly won't be taking very many from the acc this year.

2/10/2008 11:08:54 PM

ACC is #1 in the RPI.

Which is the main poll that they use is it not?

2/10/2008 11:10:20 PM

^They look at RPI as one factor, yes. More important than conference RPI is team RPI. That's good news for us too though, because our RPI is at least 30 spots higher than all the predictive ratings.

2/10/2008 11:12:53 PM

i think they shooould take a good number of teams from the acc but im afraid they wont

2/10/2008 11:34:40 PM

is there a florida regional?

we are 5-0 in that state

2/11/2008 10:44:20 AM

^ to answer your question the only NCAA Tournament games that will be played in Florida are some 1st and 2nd round games played in St. Pete Times Forum in Tampa on March 21 and 23. That would be a great place to get our first and second round games in considering how much success we had there and we would be accustomed to the arena and its baskets.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_NCAA_Men%27s_Division_I_Basketball_Tournament

2/11/2008 10:57:17 AM

^^I'm pretty sure we're only 4-0 in FL.

But I think it's pretty cut & dry. 9 Conf wins (reg season & tourney combined) and we're in. Otherwise we're out.

2/11/2008 11:09:22 AM

Have we beat a likely NCAA Tournament team yet this year? I'm trying to think...

Villanova and Seton Hall are longshots at very best and even calling either one a bubble team is stretching it. Va Tech is a bubble team at best but they play @ UNC and @ UMd next and if they lose both of those 14-12 at this point in the year isn't looking good.

I guess Davidson will be a NCAA Tourney team. So we have beaten ONE tourney team so far. I'm just not liking how we stack out with other at-large teams right now and on this day. A lot of our RPI is based on who we lost to and not who we beat. Luckily our RPI, with one or two big wins ove a UNC/Duke/Clemson, and we should be in.

2/11/2008 11:15:41 AM

Quote :

"The things that hurt: - UNO loss - ECU loss - 3-0 against Big East but not against any of the EIGHT big east teams in the Top 42 of the RPI"

We played 3 Big East teams, and beat them all, and that HURTS us?

2/11/2008 11:18:23 AM

I would almost rather see us go deep in the NIT....

dont get your hopes up on the NCAA,
we can win the NIT...

either way none of this matters, we deserve what we will get based upon how we play.
the NC state team that we have seen thus far does not deserve the NCAAs, thats obvious.

If we wake up at the end of this season like we did last year?
we will have to earn it even more convincingly than last year, which was impressive but still didnt mean shit...

2/11/2008 11:45:15 AM

^^ It hurts that of the 3 Big East teams we played none of them are one of the eight in the Top 42 of the RPI. It's pretty straight forward what I meant and no one in the 40+ posts before you had any trouble comprehending it.

2/11/2008 11:54:04 AM

No way 8-8 gets us into the tournament with the way we have habitual second half meltdowns.

2/11/2008 11:57:04 AM

its pretty straightforward that going 3-0 against a conference is something that hurts

riiiight

2/11/2008 11:58:25 AM