http://www.thetimesnews.com/news/shaping_11923___article.html/vital_carolina.html

Quote :

"North Carolina is shaping up as vital for Clinton, Obama March 28, 2008 - 5:54PM Mike Wilder/Times-News As Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama bring their campaigns to North Carolina, people here are registering to vote in far greater numbers than in early 2004. While political analysts speculate about what impact the state's primary may have on the Democratic presidential race, polls are surveying likely Democratic voters to see which candidate they support in the May 6 primary. Recent polls contain better news for Obama than for Clinton. No recent poll shows Clinton in the lead, though one showed a virtual tie with Obama. That poll, released March 17 by Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling, showed Obama leading Clinton by 44 percent to 43 percent. But another survey released a week later by the same pollster showed Obama leading by more than 20 percentage points, 55 percent to 34 percent. The second poll followed Obama's first round of campaigning in the state last week and his heavily covered speech about race relations that followed reports of controversial statements by the former pastor at his church. An InsiderAdvantage poll released Wednesday also shows Obama with a sizable lead over Clinton, 49 percent to 34 percent. If these poll numbers hold up, some political observers say, a loss for Clinton would likely be more significant than simply losing another state. Ferrell Guillory is director of the program on Southern politics, media and public life at the Center for the Study of the American South at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. He said Obama's lead in delegates, while not huge, is substantive enough that Clinton needs a win that would shake up the race if she is to challenge his front-runner status. "Both candidates have a large stake in North Carolina," Guillory said. "But Clinton's stake is probably higher." A Wall Street Journal online story on Friday referred to North Carolina as potentially more crucial than Pennsylvania. Polls there have consistently shown Clinton leading Obama, though by varying margins. That primary will be April 22. The North Carolina primary, The Wall Street Journal article says, gives Clinton a chance to alter the race by scoring an unexpected victory. That's pretty much the same argument political analysts have been making about how a win in North Carolina could boost Clinton. Particularly if coupled with a victory in Indiana, which also holds its primary May 6, a win in North Carolina could make the party's superdelegates receptive to claims that Obama's appeal is fading as the primary season winds down. An Obama victory, Guillory said, "would make him even more of a front-runner," and some have suggested Democratic leaders would step up calls for Clinton to end her candidacy in the interest of party unity. If anything could take the heat out of the North Carolina primary, it would probably be an Obama upset two weeks earlier in Pennsylvania. "What the situation is now (in North Carolina) will almost certainly change after Pennsylvania," Guillory said. "But it's hard to say how it will change." As to the general election match-up in North Carolina, a poll released early this week shows Republican John McCain leading both Clinton and Obama, though his lead over Clinton was substantially wider. A poll released Monday by Rasmussen Reports showed McCain leading Obama by 51 percent to 42 percent. The poll showed McCain leading Clinton by 50 percent to 34 percent. Of course, the general election campaign hasn't yet started, and Guillory cautioned against relying to heavily on polls to predict how the primary will turn out. Partly because it's hard to predict who will vote in primaries, he said, the polls may not be as reliable as surveys of voters before a fall election. NEW VOTER registrations in North Carolina for the first two months of 2008 were roughly triple the number of new registrations for the same two months in 2004, said Gary Bartlett, executive director of the N.C. Board of Elections. New registrations total 100,525 for January and February of this year, compared to 35,434 for those two months in 2004. In 2004, Bartlett said, registrations didn't see a dramatic climb until September and October. In Alamance County, a little less than twice the number of people registered to vote during the first two months of 2008 compared to 2004. Figures from the state elections board show 1,281 new registrations in the county for January and February, compared to 678 in January and February 2004. Perhaps not surprisingly given the enthusiasm created by the Democratic presidential primaries, the number of new voters registering as Democrats is outpacing the number registering as Republicans. During January and February, 42,791 people statewide registered to vote as Democrats, compared to 30,681 who registered as unaffiliated voters and 26,873 people who registered as Republicans. In Alamance County during that time, 558 people registered as Democrats, 364 people registered as Republicans and 359 people registered as unaffiliated voters. Bartlett is expecting heavier than usual turnout in the May 6 primary, though he said turnout is hard to predict. He's thinking 24 to 30 percent of people registered as Republicans may vote in the primary. While Sen. John McCain has the party's nomination for president wrapped up, there are contested statewide and local races. Among Democrats, Bartlett is expecting turnout of 38 to 46 percent. "There will be some places that might go higher than 50 percent," he said. In 2004, overall primary turnout was 16 percent of registered voters. In presidential election years within the last 20 years, the highest primary turnout was in 1988, when 31 percent of registered voters participated. The North Carolina primary was part of that year's Super Tuesday, when both parties still had contested presidential races. Bartlett was quick to add this year's primary turnout could change based on factors he can't predict today. One wild card, Bartlett said, is how many unaffiliated voters participate in the primaries. In North Carolina, people registered as Democrats can vote only in the Democratic primary, and people registered as Republicans can vote only in the Republican primary. Unaffiliated voters may choose to vote in either primary."

i wonder how these stats hold up against other stats...dont you find them interesting?

4/16/2008 6:54:41 PM

This means we don't need street cash this year. w00t.

4/16/2008 7:13:32 PM