Costas Panagopoulos, PhD
Department of Political Science
Fordham University

Quote :

"Pre-election projections for two organizations' final polls—Rasmussen and Pew—were perfectly in agreement with the actual election result (**)."

Best

Quote :

"1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)** 1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**"

Worst--Is It Any Big Surprise?

Quote :

"19. CBS/Times (10/25-29) 20. Newsweek (10/22-23)"

http://tinyurl.com/58ha9z

and

11/8/2008 5:18:35 AM

I'm kind of surprised C-Span was so far down on the list.

11/8/2008 5:41:21 AM

Quote :

"On average, preelection polls from 23 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of 7.52 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 1.37 percentage points away from the current estimate of a 6.15-point Obama margin in the national popular vote."

Yeah, those lower ranked polls were probably really far off.

11/8/2008 9:03:30 AM

^^^

Rasmussen was always my favorite tracker. Rasmussen and SurveyUSA being my favorite pollsters.

I think the CBS/NYT and Newsweeks polls were so off

1) They use human interviewers which are inherently worse than IVR polling

2) They were earlier a tighting as the race drew to a close

3) They didn't weight by party ID. I think that the party ID of voters is fairly stable. What is likely is not only was Obama polling extremely high among non-voters, but the Republican party is polling extremely low among non-Voters.

So, if you dont weight by party ID you come away thinking that voting population has turned against the GOP as aggressively as the general population.

[Edited on November 8, 2008 at 11:40 AM. Reason : .]

11/8/2008 11:40:43 AM

hahaha....CBS....

I dont really know that much about polls but it always seems to me that Rasmussen, Pew, and Gallup are the most reliable. Guess I was wrong about Gallup!!

[Edited on November 8, 2008 at 11:48 AM. Reason : asdf]

11/8/2008 11:47:42 AM

^^ so much grammar, so little time

11/8/2008 12:00:12 PM

^

You can post a grammar edited version and I will edit post to reflect it. I don't really feel its worth it but I have no problem if you want to do it.

11/8/2008 12:29:12 PM