I got a text yesterday from a friend (met student at NCSU) suggesting the *possibility* of a winter weather event this weekend. I'm still skeptical this far out, but NWS issued an interesting forecast discussion today. Some bits of it (since it was quite lengthy):

Quote :

".LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 245 PM MONDAY... SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: POTENTIALLY INTERESTING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE CAROLINAS IN THIS PERIOD. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL SHOW RATHER STRONG (1030-1035 MB) HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC 00-12Z SAT. THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH SHARPENING ALONG THE TX/DEEP SOUTH GULF COAST FRI NIGHT...EXTENDING ENE/NE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG OR JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT EVE/NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS WERE VERY SIMILAR W/REGARD TO THEIR HANDLING OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM THERE IS STILL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY W/REGARD TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THAT CENTRAL NC WILL SEE...SINCE THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD/DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND THE *EXACT* TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW."

so, what say you? anyone think we might see something? or is this nothing to get excited about?

12/7/2009 10:35:56 PM

paging HockeyRoman

12/7/2009 10:36:28 PM

Let me check my sources. I haven't looked that far ahead yet.

12/7/2009 10:45:30 PM

Wow, that'd be pretty early for snow

12/7/2009 10:46:56 PM

^ possibly ice


[Edited on December 7, 2009 at 10:52 PM. Reason : but either way it's still pretty early ]

12/7/2009 10:49:40 PM

Too early to tell. Models today had too much run-to-run variability to say for certain.

12/7/2009 11:03:42 PM

Are they talking about the moisture that is moving in from the Gulf? I just don't see it being cold enough here for anything meaningful especially with it forecast to be near 70 on Wednesday. Even with lows tapping into the upper 20s it would be unusual at time of year.

12/7/2009 11:32:30 PM

Man, this better not affect my end of the kickball/softball season party at Cici's!

12/8/2009 12:15:10 AM

Quote :

"SENSIBLE WEATHER"

12/8/2009 1:44:06 AM

Quote :

"NCZ009>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-132100- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED PETEY PAB HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER WARNING EFFECTIVE FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA: POLK... BLADEN... MARSHALL... HOKE... GREENE COUNTY... TILLERY... DAMN... TRANSFER... SANDY RIDGE... BROWNS OVER HERE... GREENS OVER HERE... PASQUOTANK... DOWN ON THE... ODOM EAST... LET ME THINK... JOHNSTON COUNTY... FRANKLIN... BURGAW... NEWPORT... WARREN... SHELBY... KENANSVILLE... CURRITUCK... TARBORO... TRIANGLE... GOLDSBORO... HALIFAX... STATESVILLE... AND ALL THEM LITTLE BITTY HICK TOWNS... RESIDENTS OF AREAS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE THEIR SHIRT OFF... TWIST IT ROUND THEIR HAND... SPIN IT LIKE A HELICOPTER... CAROLINA BIRDDOG ADVISES RESIDENTS TO ASSIST LOCAL WOMEN BY ACQUIESCING TO THEIR DESIRES... OPTIONS MAY INCLUDE HITTING IT FROM THE FRONT... THE BACK... MISSIONARY WITH FEET CRAMMED TO THE HEADBOARD... STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR ANY OTHER STATION BESIDES K97.5 FOR UP TO THE MINUTE WEATHER INFORMATION... BEEF WITH K97.5 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE... $$ PP"

12/8/2009 1:57:56 AM

Dr. Eder said it wouldn't happen.

It won't happen.

At least not in Raleigh.

12/8/2009 3:40:17 AM

Not a chance this weekend.

12/8/2009 8:35:28 AM

Current model runs suggest a solid cold air damming event with a chance of snow changing to sleet then freezing rain. Freezing rain is what causes glazing on the trees and powerlines (ice storm). I am currently awaiting the 12z GFS to see if it is still trending in this direction.

12/8/2009 10:38:37 AM

GFS may be an outlier with it's faster forward motion. I'd say we're just looking at cold rain.

12/8/2009 12:01:10 PM

Senez very true with the speed but it slowed things down a bit on the 12z run. There is still alot that can go wrong for us winter weather lovers but I think it kills the CAD wedge way too quickly. The dewpoints and wetbulbs near the sfc. with precip falling would suggest some serious evap. cooling at the onset helping to lock in the cold. GFS is poor at handling diabatic processes. One area of concern I have is with the proximity of the parent high things could almost be too dry at the start resulting in alot wasted as virga. You can't take those model soundings literally. I do think it will be an ice event for someone at this point. There is a slight chance it could begin as sleet/snow for a brief period. Of course it is still very early and alot can change. All in all it is pointing too a potential solid hybrid CAD event.

12/8/2009 1:04:07 PM

my reliable resource, weather.com, says just rain

12/8/2009 1:15:21 PM

That's all I need, then.

12/8/2009 1:52:49 PM

Time will tell if it is to be yet another screw job for us winter weather fans.

12/8/2009 2:09:32 PM

Quote :

"my reliable resource, weather.com, says just rain"

JP!!!!! You should know better!!!

12/8/2009 7:05:34 PM

No model is good more than 3 days out. Theres just too many variables, butterfly effect etc, especially dealing with something where you need to have the temperature at every level correct within a few degrees and the tracks correct within 50-100 miles for the public to view the forecast as anything more than a complete failure.

Lots of research is being done to make models better for right now, treat everything outside of 3 days as foggy blur.

12/8/2009 9:22:25 PM

fine, ill use my secondary source, AccuWeather

12/8/2009 9:23:02 PM

^^ Um, what?

^At least they're reputable.

12/9/2009 12:39:17 AM

^To sum it up, basically, the atmosphere behaves like a fluid and weather systems are like waves in the fluid. Imagine stirring a cup of hot chocolate and looking at the white froth swirling around the middle after you stir it. Predeciting weather more than 3 days out is a lot like trying to predict the shape of the froth thirty seconds from now.

The system we're talking about for saturday is somewhere out in the pacific right now.

Also, the "butterfly effect" simplifies it some more

12/9/2009 12:44:25 AM

Maybe in the year 1900. I am going to be kind to you for now and pretend that you didn't just insult my intelligence and that of those in this thread who actually work with forecasting. So next time Fishel ends up in the fountain I can tell him to blame it on the butterflies.

As for Saturday I just don't see it being that big of an event given the temp forecast and temps priors to that being in the 60s. Maybe if we lived in the Andes, but not here.

12/9/2009 4:39:14 AM

on a side note, i'll never forget that day we were up in the Jordan hall lab doing work and it started snowing... then JP and I walked all the way to Maiden Lane in the snow freezing our butts off. then it took me about 2 hours to drive from there to Garner b/c of all the traffic jams...
that was going to be a nonevent as well

12/9/2009 5:44:10 AM

lightning + thundAr!

12/9/2009 6:59:46 AM

beat me to it soli. Ize just sitting here like I have been all night being all studious and etc etc. Then suddenly, a bright flash followed by a roll of thunder. Maybe it's THUNDER SNOW.

12/9/2009 7:04:33 AM

DEFINITELY THUNDAR SNOW



I saw a bright flash and I was like, "what motherfucker is out back snapping photos of my yard?!" and then I heard the thunder and got all "oh its nature mother god :-("


[Edited on December 9, 2009 at 7:11 AM. Reason : s]

12/9/2009 7:09:54 AM

Lucky! I hate you all! I've been listening for it all night and thought maybe I heard something, so I go out, stand in 36 degree rain for 5mins and nothing.

12/9/2009 7:18:17 AM

its funny because i don't even care about weather but i got to enjoy the cool part of it

12/9/2009 7:37:25 AM

. . . . . . . . .

12/9/2009 7:45:16 AM

Opened up the window last night and left it open all night made for some great sleep.. although the blowing rain this morning caused me to wakeup with a cold mist landing on my face..

12/9/2009 8:30:06 AM

There will be NO snow. We'll be lucky to see rain out of this system.

That's my professional opinion.

[Edited on December 9, 2009 at 8:58 AM. Reason : [no]]

12/9/2009 8:58:23 AM

What about next Weds? Weather.com has rain/snow showers. Get on it pros!

12/9/2009 10:37:55 AM

If you work in forecasting and are comfortable making definitive statements about exactly what will and won't happen 5 days out within the range of a specific city, then you might need to find a new profession. If you don't understand the basis of that statement, then you really need to find a new profession.

12/9/2009 11:00:39 AM

hey chance is it going to snow this weekend ?

12/9/2009 11:11:49 AM

So far the model trends have delayed the onset of precip. which points to more of a screw job if you want winter wx. The parent high is just too close to the are at the start.

12/9/2009 11:17:31 AM

what about farther west? Greensboro?

We had some kick-ass thunder early this morning. Scared the shit out of the dogs and woke me up.

12/9/2009 11:55:20 AM

Quote :

"Dr. Eder said it wouldn't happen"

He also said Katrina wouldnt be anything either

12/9/2009 11:55:38 AM

I'll bring that up with him later and laugh.

To be fair, it wasn't nearly as strong as it could have been.

EDIT: Haha, mambagrl doesn't understand the difference between critical forecasting skills and simple determination of snow-range in otherwise stable systems.

[Edited on December 9, 2009 at 12:40 PM. Reason : it's pretty easy to say about snow in this region, maybe not five days ahead of time]

12/9/2009 12:37:28 PM

^^^ ?

come on weather nerds, do you expect me to take the word of Eric Chilton and Ed Matthews?

12/9/2009 1:00:55 PM

Quote :

"If you work in forecasting and are comfortable making definitive statements about exactly what will and won't happen 5 days out within the range of a specific city, then you might need to find a new profession. If you don't understand the basis of that statement, then you really need to find a new profession."

I don't think a meteorologist has ever truly made a definitive statement. Even so much as 6 hours ahead of an event. But I'll make one right now.

Tomorrow, the sun will shine.
Tomorrow, the wind will blow.

Just depends on your perspective.

12/9/2009 1:58:53 PM

WINTER CANCEL

12/9/2009 6:52:25 PM

Quote :

"Weather.com has rain/snow showers."

THIS is your problem!

12/9/2009 7:19:17 PM

Greensboro? Anyone? HELLOOOOOOOO?

[Edited on December 9, 2009 at 8:03 PM. Reason : a]

12/9/2009 7:59:49 PM

why does the wind blow? is it jesus blowing out his birthday candles?

12/9/2009 8:12:01 PM

Quote :

"He also said Katrina wouldnt be anything either"

if it wasn't for Katrina, there wouldn't be NBA basketball in OKC

think about that

boom

12/9/2009 8:38:24 PM

seattle, not NO

12/9/2009 8:40:05 PM

THE WEATHER IS WIERD AS FUCK PRESENTLY

12/9/2009 8:41:08 PM

must be dat old fashioned global warmening.

12/9/2009 8:42:09 PM