For the 5th Year running, The Guru has returned! I'm proud to say that participation over the years has stayed high in these threads has stayed high and this is easily my most enjoyable time not only of the sports year, but on TWW as well. I genuinely enjoy all of the nuances of fantasy football and hope to help with any questions that you have.

A little background on Panthro and where "The Guru" came from. I've been playing Fantasy Football since 1989 when me and some friends used to pick players on Saturdays and figure out a point system. We would determine the winner by looking at the Monday/Tuesday sports page and cut out the stats. This is how we kept track. One of my friends gave me the title "The Guru" when we were trying to name our teams in one of the first years. It stuck. Over the years, I've won over $10,000 in fantasy football prize money (over 20 years, not as much as it sounds as it sounds) and consider myself pretty knowledgeable after playing in hundreds of leagues. I don't always get them right, but year after year I look at these threads and find that more often that not, I make pretty good picks.

My goal is to do my best to offer insightful advice on drafting techniques, who to avoid, who to pursue, and later on once games start...who to start, and who to bench, along with last minute injury reports.

Again, any question asked directly to me, I'll gladly offer insight...all other questions are fair game. This thread is all about opinions and updates, so if you've got em, give em.

Anyone can give and take insight, but please try to be respectful and always try to answer questions before posing new ones.

Now that that's out of the way, this year's draft, especially the 1st round, will be high drama. In most leagues, the top 4 are set in stone. Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, MJD. After that, things get tricky. Do you go WR with Andre Johnson or Moss in a contract year? QB with Brees or Rodgers? Or take a look at Gore, Turner, S-Jax? All are valid picks.

What's your plan? How do you draft? Who are your Sleepers?

This year is the year! Use this thread to propel yourself to the title!

Good Luck!

- The Guru

7/13/2010 10:56:33 PM

Oh, and I'm always down for some mock drafting if anyone else is.

http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/

7/14/2010 11:45:07 AM

well you are getting on this early arent you

7/14/2010 12:49:09 PM

never too early for ff

7/14/2010 12:51:33 PM

9th pick, nonppr

WHO YOU GOT

7/14/2010 12:55:22 PM

Slave Famous's Top 10 Overall

1. Philip Rivers
2. Chris Johnson
3. Peyton Manning
4. Adrian Peterson
5. Drew Brees
6. Larry Fitzgerald
7. DeAngelo Williams
8. Tom Brady
9. Michael Turner
10. Randy Moss

7/14/2010 12:59:44 PM

you forgot David Garrard, Jeff Blake, Leonard Henry, etc

7/14/2010 1:06:01 PM

The guru name story is bullshit... I had a thread on here using the name guru one year and Panthro beat me to it the following year and I've let him keep up his coy game.

7/14/2010 1:23:48 PM

^^
Haha I'm boys with Leonard Henry. For real.

7/14/2010 1:29:04 PM

I need to start researching. I've been slacking this year. I hope to do some in-depth analysis, but collecting the data is hard.

Anyway, if you were to do a 1-man mock draft, where would you pick the top 3 WR's?

7/14/2010 1:58:56 PM

@VOLCOM interestingly enough, the past 4 years, I've started this thread in mid-June!

@Pilgrimshoes - Most drafts I've been doing in a 10 man non PPR have S-Jax, Rodgers, Moss and Wayne hovering around the 9-10 spot. Depending on your scoring system of course, I would honestly look at Rodgers long and hard, as well as Moss. Moss is in a contract year and this is his last chance at one more payday.

@Jaybee1200 - Haters gonna Hate, my friend. That's the real story. I didn't "take" the name from you, but you are welcome to be "Co-Vice Assistant In Waiting To The Guru" if it makes you feel better.

@Shivan Bird - Andre is going around the 5th-7th pick (standard scoring), with Moss and Wayne going at the end of the 1st, beginning of the 2nd. Fitz takes a dive with Warner being out, but I do thing Jennings will finish in the top 3 WR's this year.

7/14/2010 2:15:45 PM

Panthro rank your QBs and where you think they should go in a standard 12 team draft.

Do you still think the old strategy of RBs first is still applicable with all of the two RB sets teams are employing?

7/14/2010 3:55:15 PM

Great Question and I absolutely think that the RB first strategy is in place if you have spots 1-4 this year (AP, CJ, Rice and MJD). Those guys are studs. After that though, it's best pick available. I would take Andre Johnson over S-Jax all day, every day. As always, it's largely based around your scoring system, but it's really about where you can get the best value. Right now, based on ADP's (Average Draft Position), 3 WR's are consistently going in rd 1 (Andre, Moss, Wayne) in a 12 man league, and at least 5-6 more going in the 2nd round. In short, a stud WR is far more valuable than a timeshare RB.

In terms of QB's for a 12 man..here's how I have them ranked. In order of preference and where I am seeing them go.

Tier 1:
Rodgers - 1.10 (1st round, 10th pick)
Brees - 2.02-2.04

Tier 2:
Manning *Contract Year - Late 2nd rd (9th - 12th pick)
Brady *Contract Year - Early to Mid 3rd

Tier 3 - Value Tier - These are all inter-changeable at this point
Schuab - Early to mid 4th
Romo - Early to mid 4th
Rivers - Early to mid 4th

Tier 4
Ryan - 6th - 8th rd
Flacco - 6th - 8th rd
Favre - 6th - 8th rd
Kolb - 6th - 8th rd
McNabb - 9th rd
E. Manning- 9th rd


Open to feedback here, but this looks like my early rankings so far.

7/14/2010 4:15:36 PM

Awesome to see this thread again. I really enjoyed contributing last year and Ill be doing the same this year. Need to start working on my draft orders

7/14/2010 4:23:17 PM

While I love P-Riv, right now he has taken a slide down my board until I get some more concrete answers.

With V-Jax suspended 3 games as well as potentially holding out along side McNeil, I just can't put him in that same tier Panthro.

Not really a sleeper, but I'd slide P-Riv down and probably slide Flacco up at this point. I think Flacco has a good chance at putting up some stout numbers this season with the addition of Boldin with Mason, Heap, and Rice there, I could see him having a big year.

7/14/2010 4:55:09 PM

So I have done several mock drafts just out of boredom and I seem to always lean towards taking Kolb as my 2nd qb. I just happen to be working in NJ, about an hour outside of philly and have been listening to way too much philly sports talk radio and the blind optimisim is running rampid.

I like Kolb just as a replacement during a bye week only because of what he did in a very short time last year, but with no solid #2 wr, and with a still unproven mccoy in the backfield, plus the questionable defense I have started to think of guys like alex smith and garrard as being more productive.

So my question, to pretty much anybody that feels like answering, is where do you rank Kolb among the quarterbacks; good back-up pick, or desperate late round choice if the more dependable, popular back-ups are gone?

7/17/2010 11:15:11 PM

So Panthro, what positions are deep with quality, ie, what positions should I intentionally wait until later in the draft to fill

I like to think I have a decent gauge on the draft, but I'm wondering your thoughts on this question.

7/18/2010 12:44:01 AM

^^imo he'll be a solid backup, but in all honesty, if you have a prolonged stretch where you're depending on your backup, you're probably in trouble anyway

^TE is very deep this year...there will probably be several solid players that don't even get drafted in most leagues

7/19/2010 9:37:35 AM

@TreeTwista10, I agree, the TE is very deep this year.

The better question is the inverse. Which position has the least depth.

QB is ok (top 10 QB's are going to be good)

RB is a little worse (there seem to be 7 top RB's this year), then it significantly falls off to RB #2's.

WR's are REALLY tough this year. of the 1st 28 picks, 13 of them are WR's (Based on ADP so far for a standard 2 RB, 3 WR league). After that, only 5 of the next 23 are WR's. This would mean that there is clearly a group of #1 WR's, but then it falls off dramatically. If you dont get at least one of these top 13 WR's you would be screwed.

Based on this, my drafting is telling me that the best method if you are early in the draft (spots 1-4) is to go RB, WR, WR and if you are later in the draft (7-10), then WR, RB, RB should give you the best possible 3 draft picks. In the middle could be either of the two.

[Edited on July 19, 2010 at 10:42 AM. Reason : asdf]

7/19/2010 10:42:14 AM

What draft order (ex: WR, WR, RB, RB, QB) would you go for your first 5-6 picks in a 12 man league given that it is a non ppr league, you have the 12th and 13th picks, and it is a 1 QB, 2 RB, 2WR, 1 RB/WR league?

I'm not throwing in TE into the mix since it is such a deep position this year. I feel I can get quality points with one as far down as the 10-15 rounds.

7/19/2010 1:00:23 PM

Do you agree that standard drafts are cunty and auctions are the way to go?

7/19/2010 1:07:45 PM

not that this is fact but I dont ever remember seeing Jaybee use the term Guru and Panthro has been running the Guru Fantasy Football threads for a while now.

[Edited on July 20, 2010 at 12:38 PM. Reason : and I have been on here in the FF threads since Panthro's first]

[Edited on July 20, 2010 at 1:05 PM. Reason : again, not saying its fact but i really dont understand the hate]

7/20/2010 12:38:32 PM

At wr:

Fitz, Wayne, Roddy White, B. Marshall, or Miles Austin?

7/26/2010 12:54:48 PM

austin will probably be the best value pick, but i'd put white or wayne at the top of that group. Fitz and marshal still have qb questions to be answered, plus marshal had the hip issues.

need two keepers:

schaub
pierre thomas
ronnie brown

Leaning to schaub and thomas unless brown gets really good reviews coming off the injury

7/26/2010 1:33:23 PM

^^ Depends on who your RB's are... If you have risky RB's (Turner, S-jax, etc), you may want to take a WR that has a higher floor (like Wayne, Moss, etc)

If you've got someone like Ray Rice or MJD, you're in a better position to take more of a risk on a WR like Austin or Marshall. Who do you have at RB? Is this a 1st round pick?

^ Thomas and Schaub. No doubt about it. Both are poised for solid seasons.

7/26/2010 1:40:05 PM

Quote :

"Do you agree that standard drafts are cunty and auctions are the way to go?"

7/26/2010 1:42:02 PM

maybe...

if you've got a group of savvy drafters, then yes. If you don't, you have people who spend all of their money on the top players, then are left with incredibly shitty players and it creates an unbalanced league, which is no good.

Snake drafts create the most parity and take out the element of overbidding, which is only an issue if you are playing with a bunch of bums.

7/26/2010 1:49:00 PM

Quote :

"^^ Depends on who your RB's are... If you have risky RB's (Turner, S-jax, etc), you may want to take a WR that has a higher floor (like Wayne, Moss, etc) If you've got someone like Ray Rice or MJD, you're in a better position to take more of a risk on a WR like Austin or Marshall. Who do you have at RB? Is this a 1st round pick? "

Well I was messing around with having a late first round pick when all of the RBs that I would use an early pick on are gone (Johnson, Peterson, MJD, Rice, Gore) so I was looking at going qb, wr, rb/wr. With A Johnson and Moss usually being gone (and I am not big on Moss even if he was available), these were the WRs left. So it would be an early second round pick in a snake draft. I am leaning towards not taking a RB until the 3rd-4th round if there are quality WRs out there.

7/26/2010 2:22:17 PM

better strategy would be to not take a QB in rd one. As long as you get a top 7 QB, you'll be fine. The difference is nowhere near as big as the difference in not taking a RB or WR in the 3rd round.

7/26/2010 3:10:46 PM

If my options in the first round are taking Brees or Rodgers compared to Mendenhall or DeAngelo, the qbs are way more appealing. I took a qb in the first round last year, drafted two decent backs, and was able to pick up very good backs off waivers in the first few weeks of the season. This worked out very well last year since I can get a 15 - 16 game full time qb with a late first round pick instead of a rb who shares the load or is unproven in a full season.

It is probably just a matter of opinion but I know from the few previews I have skimmed over this year that taking a qb in the first round is becoming more popular if the elite 5-6 rbs are no longer available.

7/26/2010 3:28:43 PM

again, I disagree. End of 1st, you should be able to get Turner or Jackson instead of Rodgers or Brees. early second, take Moss, Wayne, Calvin Johnson...

late third, if you really want a QB, take Schaub, Romo, Rivers then take another RB like McCoy or Moreno, or vice versa.

The difference between Rodgers -> Romo/Schaub will be smaller than the difference from Jackson -> Moreno. You are better off taking a RB early, unless your league scoring is set up really nicely for QB's.

7/26/2010 4:04:15 PM

I think I'm with Pantro on this one. If I can get a quality option like Turner or Jackson and a top tier WR, I'll be waiting till round 3(#12) or 4 (#1) for a QB.

7/27/2010 1:23:07 PM

yo panthro, why dont you give us a top 10 list for QB/WR/RB positions

7/29/2010 11:19:10 AM

Are we basing these off of a 4 or 6 point passing TD value?

Because that changes everything

7/29/2010 11:23:35 AM

Indeed it does. I'll do this around lunch time today, and I'll be basing it off of everything being the same (6pts)

7/29/2010 11:26:11 AM

wonder if welker is gonna come back w/o missing a beat, or if he's in for the standard 1 year lag after blowing out a knee?

seems like I see some "experts" really undervaluing him and others seem to completely ignore the injury with the recent positive reports.

7/29/2010 11:37:59 AM

Quote :

"Are we basing these off of a 4 or 6 point passing TD value? Because that changes everything"

I would just say to do it as all TDs are 6 points a piece. Might be good to do a PPR and a non-PPR as well since they are so widely used and completely change the look of the WR and RB lists

7/29/2010 12:29:41 PM

Ok, here's what I think in terms of standard, non-ppr, everything 6 pts rankings. It may change as the preseason goes on, but that's understood.

RB:

Chris Johnson
Adrian Peterson
Maurice Jones-Drew
Ray Rice
Frank Gore - such a nice schedule this year
Steven Jackson
Shonn Greene - Young RB in a great position
Michael Turner
Rashard Mendenhall - Going to have to lean on him a lot this year
DeAngelo Williams - Stewart starting out on PUP list bodes well for DeA
Ryan Mathews - Rookie, but will fit in great.
Jamaal Charles - I'm not concerned...at all...about Thomas Jones


WR:

Andre Johnson
Randy Moss
Reggie Wayne
Larry Fitzgerald - He'll find a way to make this work, but he could be a nice "buy low" candidate after a few games b/c Matt L. won't start the season strong.
Calvin Johnson - If Stafford is as improved as it's being reported, he could easily be the #1 WR
Miles Austin
Roddy White
Brandon Marshall - If Henne's on his game, could be top 3 WR
Greg Jennings - dark horse for top 5 WR
DeSean Jackson - Too talented not to be up here, but he won't be as good as last year and Maclin will break loose.

QB:

Aaron Rodgers - Will likely throw for same # of yds and TD's as Brees, but rushing yds gives him the edge
Drew Brees
Peyton Manning
Tom Brady
Tony Romo - Team is so stacked this year
Matt Schaub
Philip Rivers - Talented and I'm a homer, but loss of Jackson hurts
Kevin Kolb - nice cast around him with Maclin, Jackson, Celek and McCoy.
Brett Favre
Jay Cutler - Martz offense could mean nice things
(Matt Ryan) - In case Favre hangs em up

7/29/2010 12:50:41 PM

Guru! I got the 10th and 11th pick in a PPR league. I don't feel like S. Jackson and M. Turner are great PPR options, so I'm thinking WR / WR or QB / WR. We get 6pts per Passing TD and 6 pts at 200 Passing yards in our league. If I can get Rodgers or Brees in the first, should I pull the trigger? If I can't get Rodgers or Brees, how long should I wait to jump on a QB since Passing TDs are worth 6?

PPR, Available Positions: QB WR WR WR RB RB TE K D


[Edited on July 30, 2010 at 8:45 AM. Reason : :]

7/30/2010 8:39:43 AM

^with that scoring format, and your spot in the draft, i'd be good to pick a top tier QB with one of your first two picks imo.

QB's are gonna own with scoring like that and if the other owners are smart, there will certainly have been a big qb run by the time it gets back to you with the 30th pick

7/30/2010 11:41:20 AM

before answering, if you get that kind of significant, but easily attainable bonus for QB's, do you have one like that for RB's or WR's?

Reason being, the top QB's (Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Brady, Schuab, Romo and Rivers) will get 200 yds passing easy. They are essentially getting 1 extra TD per game. This would dramatically change how I approached drafting if there weren't another bonus structure set up.

So...let me know

7/30/2010 11:42:57 AM

is anyone thinking Carson Palmer is finally going to be worth picking up this year with his added firepower at WR?

7/30/2010 12:17:10 PM

^^

Passing, rushing and reception TDs are all 6 points.

There are bonuses for every category. RBs get nice bonuses as well. I'm just not sure who would be worth picking over a WR at the 10th and 11th pick.

Passing Yards 25 yards per point; 6 points at 200 yards

Rushing Yards 10 yards per point; 5 points at 100 yards; 10 points at 200 yards; 15 points at 300 yards

Reception Yards 10 yards per point; 3 points at 100 yards; 6 points at 200 yards; 10 points at 300 yards

[Edited on July 30, 2010 at 12:49 PM. Reason : :]

7/30/2010 12:42:00 PM

I'm in a keeper league (only keeping 1) and it looks like I'm keeping Peyton. Most of the rest of the league is keeping RBs, mine sucked (Jacobs, K. Smith, etc) but I have first pick since I finished last. So I guess I'd like to get a RB first, but there are other options.. so who should I look at first? My guesses on who will be available (ranked by Y!):

Andre Johnson
Rashard Mendenhall/Larry Fitzgerald (one should be kept)
Ryan Mathews
Steven Jackson
Randy Moss
Shonn Greene
Ryan Grant

We get 6 pts/TD regardless of position, and 1 pt/25yd rushing/receiving. No PPR

7/30/2010 1:38:28 PM

For those of you in money leagues, what is your buy-in amount and pay-out breakdown look like? We are changing ours up this year and looking for some better ideas.

7/30/2010 3:42:42 PM

^^I'd be looking at Mendenhall and Johnson

[Edited on July 30, 2010 at 4:00 PM. Reason : ]

7/30/2010 4:00:11 PM

50% regular season winner, 20% regular season runner up, 30% playoff winner

14 weeks should have more importance than getting lucky for 2 or 3

7/30/2010 4:01:38 PM

^ I don't know about that. 50% is a big piece of the pie...

7/30/2010 4:14:25 PM

playoff runnerup: gets his money back
playoff winner: gets everything else
everybody who didn't make the finals: fuck you

7/30/2010 4:18:07 PM

Buy-in is $50, 12 teams, $600.

Champ: $550
Runner-up: $50

Baseball we have a regular season winner that gets some, but for some reason not football.

7/30/2010 4:32:21 PM