Does this mean they expect it to rain for 20% of the day?
OR
Does it mean they there is a 2 in 10 chance we will see rain for the day?

What the fuck does 2 in 10 chance actually mean?? 2 out of 10 days that look like today?


It just doesn't make sense when the fucking weather channel says we have a 20% chance of rain when it's not a sporadic rainstorm; It's something that could be tracked on radar. Why do we even pay these people?

7/20/2010 4:14:48 PM

7/20/2010 4:16:13 PM

I stopped paying my local meteorologist months ago.

7/20/2010 4:16:17 PM

80% of weather system probabilities involving rain have no chance of happening

7/20/2010 4:16:29 PM

If only the university had some sort of department that could teach you about math and it's various related concepts...

7/20/2010 4:16:36 PM

super cool story bro

7/20/2010 4:16:47 PM

they can barely predict the day it might rain let alone how much of it rain will be covering

7/20/2010 4:16:54 PM

it's an estimate that 20% of the forecast area will see rainfall

7/20/2010 4:16:58 PM

They predict the future. THE FUTURE.

7/20/2010 4:17:07 PM

7/20/2010 4:17:30 PM

[Edited on July 20, 2010 at 4:19 PM. Reason : epic]

7/20/2010 4:18:19 PM

[Edited on July 20, 2010 at 4:19 PM. Reason : double post]

7/20/2010 4:18:19 PM

JT3bucky you shouldn't be calling anyone here an idiot

You've been in the bottom five posters here for quite some time

7/20/2010 4:19:35 PM

I like that JT3 fucked up a "How to confuse an idiot" post

7/20/2010 4:20:08 PM

hahaha, I had this question once. It's a measure of the percentage of the viewing area that they have 100% confidence will receive rain. So if you pretend Cumberland and Hoke county are equal areas, and you're 100% sure all of Cumberland will receive rain than your forecast would be 50% chance of rain. However, this naturally leads to problems such as the people in Cumberland think he/she is an idiot because everyone of their neighbors saw rain, and the people in hoke think they're an idiot because no one saw rain. Now you know.

From NOAA:

Quote :

"What does this "40 percent" mean? ...will it rain 40 percent of of the time? ...will it rain over 40 percent of the area? The "Probability of Precipitation" (PoP) describes the chance of precipitation occurring at any point you select in the area. How do forecasters arrive at this value? Mathematically, PoP is defined as follows: PoP = C x A where "C" = the confidence that precipitation will occur somewhere in the forecast area, and where "A" = the percent of the area that will receive measureable precipitation, if it occurs at all. So... in the case of the forecast above, if the forecaster knows precipitation is sure to occur ( confidence is 100% ), he/she is expressing how much of the area will receive measurable rain. ( PoP = "C" x "A" or "1" times ".4" which equals .4 or 40%.) But, most of the time, the forecaster is expressing a combination of degree of confidence and areal coverage. If the forecaster is only 50% sure that precipitation will occur, and expects that, if it does occur, it will produce measurable rain over about 80 percent of the area, the PoP (chance of rain) is 40%. ( PoP = .5 x .8 which equals .4 or 40%. ) In either event, the correct way to interpret the forecast is: there is a 40 percent chance that rain will occur at any given point in the area."

7/20/2010 4:22:52 PM

Is GeniuSxBoY really this dumb?

7/20/2010 4:23:12 PM

I enjoy his threads immensely, this included.

7/20/2010 4:30:05 PM

It means it's not going to rain.

7/20/2010 4:31:24 PM

isn't there really a 50% chance of everything? either it will, or it wont?

7/20/2010 4:31:47 PM

It means it's going to rain in the locations it always does when it gets this hot.

(Around RDU)

7/20/2010 4:33:58 PM

I've always done what wwwebsurfer posted.

How sure am I that it is going to rain. Then how much of my region will see rain.

Summertime storms on a humid day usually get about 10%. Not very confident they will pop up and they usually cover very small areas since they don't move.

Fronts are at least 30-40% chances. Better possibility you will see rain, but who sees it depends on how close or how much of your region it swings through.

[Edited on July 20, 2010 at 4:48 PM. Reason : wx]

7/20/2010 4:47:18 PM

Quote :

"isn't there really a 50% chance of everything? either it will, or it wont? "

LOL tell me about it!! I definitely should've won the lottery by now with those odds

7/20/2010 4:56:01 PM

7/20/2010 4:59:32 PM

Quote :

"doesn't make sense when the fucking weather channel says"

That was your first mistake.

As a meteorological professional I've often thought that 20% should mean that 20% of your day will have rain but sadly, it doesn't mean that.

7/20/2010 7:20:51 PM

today it meant get your ass beat by severe thunderstorms w/ 50+ mph winds.

7/20/2010 8:10:37 PM

with the pop areas getting so small it basically means that if you lived the same day 5 times, one should get rain.

Don't use the weather channel. Having meteorologists in Atlanta forecast for the whole world is a bad idea to start with.

http://www.weather.gov

[Edited on July 20, 2010 at 8:23 PM. Reason : read the forecast disccssion to really see whats going on for that day]

7/20/2010 8:23:14 PM

Or for beginners, use http://www.wunderground.com/. Type in KRDU for Raleigh and KGSO for Greensboro (KILM for folks at the beach). Profit.

7/20/2010 8:30:38 PM

What does this mean???

7/20/2010 8:50:38 PM

ibtpt

7/20/2010 9:18:50 PM