gonna happen.

8/28/2012 11:12:55 PM

i can't really fathom romney winning this election tbh

8/28/2012 11:16:52 PM

which of those states can you not fathom him winning? I'd say florida is the biggest stretch out of the list. Maybe Iowa but no more than ohio to obama is a stretch.

NC VA CO and NV are all toss ups right now but based on history and the current climate I see no reason why Romney wouldn't win based on turnout and lack of turnout from Obama's people.

8/28/2012 11:20:16 PM

i haven't broken it down by state...it just seems like obama is the more popular candidate as a whole.

i could be wrong!

8/28/2012 11:25:12 PM

Quote :

"which of those states can you not fathom him winning? "

That's probably true with the Ryan pick. Obama's only up by 2 point in Iowa in the latest poll. Looking at the latest polls

Colorado:
http://kdvr.com/2012/08/24/new-poll-has-obama-ahead-by-4-in-colorado/
Posted on: 10:29 am, August 24, 2012
"First post-Ryan Colorado poll has Obama up four"

Iowa:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IA_828.pdf
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE August 27, 2012
"PPP’s newest Iowa poll finds Barack Obama ahead of Mitt Romney by 2
points in a survey conducted over the weekend (47-45)."

Nevada:
http://www.lvrj.com/news/poll-obama-romney-neck-and-neck-167006295.html
"President Barack Obama edges out GOP opponent Mitt Romney 47 percent to 45 percent in a new Nevada poll that shows Romney's running mate, Paul Ryan, evenly splitting voters in the battleground state, too.

Nevada voters are sharply divided on whether Ryan helps or hurts the GOP ticket and on whether they support or oppose the conservative Wisconsin congressman's plan to reform Medicare for future retirees, according to the survey commissioned by the Las Vegas Review-Journal and KLAS-TV 8 NewsNow."


So that tie map depends on several states currently tied in the polls going Romney, and at least 3 lean slightly Obama states going Romney.

8/28/2012 11:49:48 PM

Quote :

"i can't really fathom romney winning this election tbh"

i can't really fathom the current president being re-elected.

8/29/2012 12:05:03 AM

Soap Box? In my Chit Chat?

It more likely than you think.

8/29/2012 12:08:21 AM

8/29/2012 12:08:25 AM

These polls are kind of useless right now, as neither candidate has gone head to head in any debates yet.

8/29/2012 1:01:35 AM

romney/biden?

8/29/2012 1:03:54 AM

romney/biden deworming agent crack cocaine.

8/29/2012 1:11:52 AM

In case of a tie in the electoral votes, the House (most likely republican controlled) will vote the President, the Senate (Controlled by the dems) vote for the VP...so Romney/Biden.

8/29/2012 1:27:23 AM

thank you bbehe, for refreshing my Social Studies knowledge

8/29/2012 1:30:37 AM

This election is going to change everything

I'm Krallum and I approved this message.

8/29/2012 1:31:37 AM

4% is the margin of error for those polls so all of those states are literally tied. Don't expect people coming out in droves to elect the first black president either.

also when this drought harvest comes in along gas prices people are going to pay a lot more for food and suddenly feel like the obama economy sucks

[Edited on August 29, 2012 at 2:31 AM. Reason : obama has nothing to do with it but thats how people operate. ]

8/29/2012 2:30:09 AM

Most likely Obama will end up with almost 300EV; if he wins every state that FiveThirtyEight currently has him at >50% chance to win, that will be 332EV, and if he loses the very close tossup state of Florida (51.7% by today's simulation), that's down to 303EV.
Then if he loses the states that he's currently rated between 60% and 70% likely to win...
CO (61.8%): 294EV
VA (62.0%): 281EV
IA (62.4%): 275EV
OH (66.4%): 257EV
It's unlikely that he'll end up losing NV (76.2%) while still winning OH, which is one way to end up with 269EV (in fact, the very way mentioned in the OP); more generally, there's about a 0.3% chance of a tie in the Electoral College.

Notably, although the prospects for Romney in the Electoral College will get slowly better if his national numbers do, the same isn't so true of Obama; he could pick off NC (currently rated 33.6% chance of an Obama win) if the race gets significantly better for him, but then it's a long way to go to get Missouri (11.3%) and the current "Safe Romney" states (10.5% or less chance for an Obama win).



Now I wish I could somehow extract the raw data from Nate Silver's model to make a dynamic ranking of the states by the chance of Obama winning (and then by expected vote margin in case of a tie in "chance of winning"), but instead I'll just list them as of the evening of Tuesday 28 August 2012...

Safe Obama (89.5%+ chance of winning, 16 states and DC less one lone district, 200EV)
DC 3 (100.0%)
HI 4 (100.0%)
NY 29 (100.0%)
IL 20 (100.0%)
MD 10 (100.0%)
VT 3 (100.0%)
RI 4 (99.7%)
DE 3 (99.7%)
CA 55 (99.7%)
ME-1 1 (99%)
MA 11 (98.8%)
ME-S 2 (97.8%)
WA 12 (97.2%)
CT 7 (96.2%)
NJ 14 (95.3%)
NM 5 (95.0%)
OR 7 (93.0%)
MN 10 (92.6%)

Likely Obama (74.5-89.4%, 4 states and one lone district, 44EV)
MI 16 (89.2%)
ME-2 1 (89%)
PA 20 (88.3%)
NV 6 (76.2%)
NH 4 (74.7%)

Lean Obama (59.5-74.4%, 5 states, 56EV)
WI 10 (71.2%)
OH 18 (66.4%)
IA 6 (62.4%)
VA 13 (62.0%)
CO 9 (61.8%)

Tossup (41.6-59.4%, 1 state, 29EV)
FL 29 (51.7%)

Lean Romney (25.6-41.5%, 1 state, 15EV)
NC 15 (33.6%)

Likely Romney (10.6-25.5%, 1 state, 10EV)
MO 10 (11.3%)

Safe Romney (10.5% or lower, 22 states, 181EV)
MT 3 (8.7%)
AZ 11 (8.5%)
IN 11 (7.4%)
NE-2 1 (6%)
GA 16 (2.4%)
SD 3 (2.2%)
WV 5 (1.7%)
ND 3 (1.4%)
SC 9 (1.3%)
AK 3 (0.8%)
TX 38 (0.7%)
KY 8 (0.5%)
TN 11 (0.4%)
AR 6 (0.4%)
LA 8 (0.3%)
MS 6 (0.2%)
KS 6 (0.2%)
NE-1 1 (0%)
NE-S 2 (0.0%)
AL 9 (0.0%)
OK 7 (0.0%)
ID 4 (0.0%)
WY 3 (0.0%)
UT 6 (0.0%)
NE-3 1 (0%)

Maybe I should make an image showing the state of play...

8/29/2012 6:53:44 AM

Obama is going to win it. Romney only represents the 1% that want us to be their slaves.

8/29/2012 7:47:18 AM

k here's that image, in black and white

Each electoral-vote area (state, DC, or congressional district in ME and NE) is represented as a black rectangle with height in pixels equal to the number of electoral votes and with width in pixels equal to the chance of an Obama victory, to the nearest tenth of a percent, multiplied by 1000; with this crude method of estimating Obama's expected EV total, you get about 288, but because the areas aren't totally independent of each other, the actual prediction by Nate Silver's model is actually 298, and as I said earlier, if you took the crude method of many a predictor and just called each state for Obama or Romney depending on who was currently considered more likely to win, then depending on the day, Obama would be expected to get 332 or 303.

[Edited on August 29, 2012 at 8:11 AM. Reason : CrazyWeb doesn't like data: URIs

8/29/2012 8:10:37 AM

Quote :

"black and white"

i see what you did there

8/29/2012 8:36:01 AM

I thought this thread was about neck ties.

8/29/2012 9:04:43 AM

that site is bullshit though.

8/29/2012 12:08:22 PM

I agree. Do you not recall how far off he was last time...

8/29/2012 1:54:10 PM

I am going to call it right now, remember this moment...

The candidate that convinces the most stupid Americans to vote for him, by giving false promises, lies and running clever ads WILL win the election.

I haven't lost faith in the American Political system, I have lost faith in the American, because we all let money run politics, and the best decisions are not made for the greater good.

8/29/2012 2:34:51 PM

Quote :

"The candidate that convinces the most stupid Americans to vote for him, by giving false promises, lies and running clever ads WILL win the election."

I think you might be on to something.

8/29/2012 3:13:38 PM

Quote :

"I agree. Do you not recall how far off he was last time..."

lol he correctly called DC and every state except Indiana, and he also called all 35 Senate races correctly, back in '08

8/29/2012 9:06:58 PM

that was my point, you idiot

8/29/2012 9:12:33 PM

I have learned, in my many years as a TDubber (2, count 'em), never to overestimate the intelligence of people making Soap Box style comments.

8/29/2012 11:27:45 PM