I didn't see a thread for it, so here we go.

Electoral Map: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Polls: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Forecasts:http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/


2008 Results:

9/19/2012 8:36:40 PM

If you start with Real Clear Politics electoral map, and change all the toss ups to leaning towards whatever the polling average currently suggests, the result is 332 to 206. Granted it wont actually turn out exactly that way, but that is where the data stands now.

And I think it's too early yet for many or perhaps any of those polls to include any Romney fall out from the 47% secret video remarks. (Although the Olympics gaffe, Eastwood absurd convention upstaging, the backfired embassy remarks, and announcement that they're changing focus to social conservative issues to rally the base rather than reach the middle are all probably doing their damage by now)

9/19/2012 9:11:42 PM

I see no way that Romney can win this.

9/19/2012 9:15:56 PM

iop1

9/19/2012 9:22:18 PM

The president will lose NC, FL and possibly IA. He'll win the rest (of the battlegrounds) and then bathe in the tears of the right....or at least I will.

[Edited on September 19, 2012 at 9:41 PM. Reason : .]

9/19/2012 9:40:56 PM

Quote :

"and announcement that they're changing focus to social conservative issues to rally the base rather than reach the middle"

i hadn't even heard that. i hope that the bottom irrecoverably falls out of his ratings as soon as they start that. athough...li'm not sure the GOP is trainable or willing to face reality.

9/19/2012 9:41:28 PM

Quote :

"And I think it's too early yet for many or perhaps any of those polls to include any Romney fall out from the 47% secret video remarks"

Yep. I've been watching 538 like a hawk for that bump. I think it's starting to arrive today on 538 in the form of a 2.1% bump in his probability to win.

I've got 3 $20 bets on the POTUS. While I'm not supremely confident or anytning, I'm feeling pretty good

9/19/2012 9:51:45 PM

Romney isn't going to lose because of his policies [which are scant]. He's not going to lose because of his history with Bain Capital or the state of Massachusetts. He's not going to lose because he changes his positions on issues along with the poll results. He's going to lose because he's asshole who is completely incapable of connecting with other human beings.

9/19/2012 11:24:10 PM

Not true since companies are people too. He connects with them just fine.

9/19/2012 11:29:13 PM

I don't think Obama will lose Florida. They're going to rail on Republicans about Medicare in the last couple weeks of the election.

9/20/2012 6:03:30 AM

Nate's Nowcast current has Romney at a 1 in 20 chance to win but the projection Nov 6 at 1 in 4.

No doubt that it's Obama's to lose right now but a lot can change in six weeks.

9/20/2012 8:17:37 AM

I don't know, when I listen to Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, they tell me this president [Obama] won't possibly get reelected because if he does the country will lose all its freedoms within 4 months, let alone 4 years.

9/20/2012 9:46:41 AM

Presidential elections just make me sad now; I haven't voted in 1 election where I was remotely happy with either candidate.

9/20/2012 10:06:37 AM

Fox News Poll:

Quote :

"President Barack Obama has the edge over Republican Mitt Romney in three potentially decisive states in the presidential election. Obama tops Romney by seven percentage points among likely voters in both Ohio (49-42 percent) and Virginia (50-43 percent). In Florida, the president holds a five-point edge (49-44 percent). Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/09/19/obama-has-edge-over-romney-in-three-battleground-states/#ixzz272YSCGjF"

9/20/2012 3:33:13 PM

Unless Romney royally flubs in the debates, I think he'll win in November

If not, I'm putting at least 50% of my cash in gold coins and stocking up on some more guns and survival gear.

9/20/2012 4:40:29 PM

Quote :

"Unless Romney royally flubs in the debates, I think he'll win in November"

All available data suggests otherwise. What are you basing this assessment on? (no theblaze or hotair , or breitbart links allowed)

^ You don't already have enough gold, guns and survival gear after Obama's first term?

9/20/2012 4:47:33 PM

^^ don't forget your Bible!

9/20/2012 4:48:32 PM

He's not basing it on anything. He's trolling.

9/20/2012 4:50:01 PM

^^^

At this point I'm starting to think it could happen. Screw up after screw up and he's never more than a few points behind Obama. He could shit on George Washington's grave and 45-47% of the country would vote for him.

All it would take is one big screwup by the Obama administration between now and November and Romney would probably take the lead

[Edited on September 20, 2012 at 4:55 PM. Reason : Clarity]

9/20/2012 4:55:23 PM

Quote :

"Screw up after screw up and he's never more than a few points behind Obama."

It's incredibly pointless to watch the popular vote as some sort of indicator of who is going to win.
Look at the links I posted at the top. Turns out we have this thing called the Electoral College

And as far as screwups go, I don't think we've seen all of the impact from Romney's 47% comments yet.

9/20/2012 5:08:38 PM

Quote :

"Unless Romney royally flubs in the debates, I think he'll win in November If not, I'm putting at least 50% of my cash in gold coins and stocking up on some more guns and survival gear."

Lol. Making fun of all the Revolution/end of world morons. Good job...

So even Rasmussen came out with a poll that Obama got a nice little push in today I see..

9/20/2012 5:47:25 PM

Quote :

""Unless Romney royally flubs in the debates, I think he'll win in November"

You must be living on a different planet. Romney was chosen specifically to lose to Obama.

9/20/2012 7:29:59 PM

Actually, IIRC he was regarded as the strongest viable candidate, and I still think he was, although if Gary Johnson had been more viable, the GOP would have done better to pick him.

9/20/2012 8:37:03 PM

Come on, Romney.

Obama's made moves within his Ed and Justice Dept. that are totally inexcusable. If you let him win by the margin you're probably going to let him win by, he's going to think he has another mandate.

9/20/2012 9:09:43 PM

Obama will do just fine against Romney in the debates....I just dont see a realistic path to 270 for Romney...and Obama has several paths plus fall back states he is likely to win to make his total 300 +. I only see Indiana and maybe NC as two states Obama might not win out of the states he won in 2008 (IN for sure, he is way behind). It is all about the electoral college and Obama has been looking good for a long time, and now is looking even better, multi paths, Romney has like one path to 270. If Obama wins VA it is over....so we will know very soon after the polls close whether Romney has a chance.

[Edited on September 20, 2012 at 9:17 PM. Reason : w]

9/20/2012 9:16:09 PM

Recent polls and average from RCP for VA:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/va/virginia_romney_vs_obama-1774.html

Quote :

"RCP Average 9/11 - 9/18 -- -- 50.2 45.5 Obama +4.7 FOX News 9/16 - 9/18 1006 LV 3.0 50 43 Obama +7 WeAskAmerica* 9/17 - 9/17 1238 LV 2.8 49 46 Obama +3 CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac 9/11 - 9/17 1474 LV 3.0 50 46 Obama +4 PPP (D) 9/13 - 9/16 1021 LV 3.1 51 46 Obama +5 Washington Post 9/12 - 9/16 847 LV 4.0 52 44 Obama +8 Rasmussen Reports 9/13 - 9/13 500 LV 4.5 49 48 Obama +1"

9/20/2012 9:42:14 PM

Romney was chosen specifically to lose to Obama.


Obama will slaughter Romney in debates. Debates are won by being smooth and confident. Stuttering Sam Romney is going to lose every time. He got owned by Santorum, Rick Perry, and Ron Paul in the Republican debates. Romney was the least viable candidate. The nomination was given to him to specifically lose against Obama.

9/20/2012 9:57:36 PM

I'd like to hear the rationale behind that.

9/20/2012 10:06:18 PM

Romney will lose the election by 6%.

9/20/2012 10:09:38 PM

so you think perry, santorum, bachman or gingrich (or paul) would be doing better in the polls? i have a hard time believing that. i think romney was the most viable candidate that the GOP put forward. but that's not saying much.

9/20/2012 10:10:55 PM

Quote :

"so you think perry, santorum, bachman or gingrich (or paul) would be doing better in the polls? i have a hard time believing that. i think romney was the most viable candidate that the GOP put forward. but that's not saying much."

Paul is the only candidate, wherein the same effort was applied to him in the media and newspapers that has been applied to Romney, Paul would have blown Obama out of the water.

But that would involve America reverting to an uncorrupted Constitutional nation again and that ain't happening.

[Edited on September 20, 2012 at 10:24 PM. Reason : .]

9/20/2012 10:23:36 PM

Ron Paul will wash the feet of those who know not what they do.

9/20/2012 10:38:41 PM

The Jews selected Romney.

9/20/2012 11:46:43 PM

The election is pretty much Obamas to loose at this point, although its still possible for Romney to get there.

9/21/2012 1:04:50 AM

Some election coverage from stories on the front page of the online version of our esteemed college newspaper:

http://www.technicianonline.com/news/michelle-obama-reaches-out-to-students-1.2766284#.UFyLkI1lRK0

Quote :

"First Lady Michelle Obama urged students to take their futures into their hands while she visited universities in North Carolina Wednesday."

http://www.technicianonline.com/news/gary-johnson-invigorates-the-libertarian-vote-1.2767174#.UFyLjo1lRK0

Quote :

"“We need to pull out of Afghanistan now, recognize marriage equality now, legalize and regulate marijuana now,” Johnson said. He also heavily advocated for repealing the Patriot Act and balancing the federal budget."

http://www.technicianonline.com/news/early-voting-made-easy-for-students-1.2764158#.UFyLv41lRK0

Quote :

"Talley will be one of nine voting precincts located within a mile of N.C. State’s campus and a high-volume site, according to the North Carolina Board of Elections. Many students are excited they will not have to go far to cast their ballot in this fall’s election, and some are finding ways to make sure this is not a one-time-only opportunity. Alex Parker, a sophomore in Spanish education, international studies and president of Wolfpack for Obama, was recently recognized on President Barack Obama’s official re-election website for his role in voter registration drives on campus. Since move-in day, Parker and the students of Wolfpack for Obama have been in the Brickyard registering students to vote every day. For Parker, the movement is about more than partisan politics. “We will register anyone, regardless of their political affiliation,” Parker said. “It is so important for students to get involved.” "

9/21/2012 12:05:03 PM

Quote :

""“We need to pull out of Afghanistan now, recognize marriage equality now, legalize and regulate marijuana now,” Johnson said. He also heavily advocated for repealing the Patriot Act and balancing the federal budget.""

9/21/2012 12:29:13 PM

A commentator on the Diane Rhem show this morning made a good point: the President, in order to avoid a referendum on his first term, basically baited Governor Romney into making this election a debate upon fundamental ideology. The governor took the bait, and unfortunately for him, his campaign has been very weak in articulating his beliefs to the general public. Had he simply stuck to pounding the president on his record, he may have stood a better shot.

Honestly, I think the only two Republican candidates this go around that would have stood a better chance against the President were Ambassador Jon Huntsman and Governor Tim Pawlenty. Unfortunately, they were not the sort of candidates that stood a chance in the Republican primary game. As for Ron Paul, but I respect him but his message was too radical for the general public. As for the rest of the candidates, they were seriously flawed or borderline crazy.

9/21/2012 1:48:22 PM

Quote :

""and announcement that they're changing focus to social conservative issues to rally the base rather than reach the middle""

Yeah, it's called the southern strategy and the GOP has been doing it since the 60s. An announcement would be changing the focus away from social issues.

And this is the current map with every state that is secure for Obama.



This doesn't even include VA, which has been polling very strong for Obama the last few weeks. He already has his path to 270, it's ova.

9/21/2012 2:09:17 PM

9/21/2012 2:11:49 PM

I'm curious

exactly what has he not read?

[Edited on September 21, 2012 at 2:45 PM. Reason : whoops]

9/21/2012 2:40:35 PM

wprice is right. he's a marxist. or a dictator. one or the other.

9/21/2012 2:54:52 PM

He's a Marxist-Socialist-Fascist-Racist-Classist-Elitist-Corporation Loving-Terrorist Befriending-Radical Christian Pastor Following-Secret Muslim Infiltrating-Wealthy-Rich People Hater

He's the BoogeyPresident. Whatever the fear of the moment is 40% of the country wants to think he's that fear personified.

9/21/2012 3:17:53 PM

Like his opponent, I think he's an out-of-touch, two-faced moron who does nothing but pander to his people and follow the orders of his party leaders.

9/21/2012 3:23:34 PM

that's fine, but you didn't answer my question

9/21/2012 3:34:01 PM

Heard Ryan got booed by the AARP. Why on earth would they send him instead of Romney?

9/21/2012 5:10:34 PM

The AARP is really a left leaning organization, so its no surprise

9/21/2012 11:13:36 PM

It's not that they are liberal, they are just anti-privatization of Medicare and pro healthcare reform.

And they had to send Ryan, they cant send Romney because it would be a great chance to highlight his record on healthcare reform because Republicans are all dumb and think that Obamacare is evil socialist shit even though it is a conservative created plan that is evil because it is all about privatization and corporatization. Nothing socialist about it, it's privatization. Dumb republicans, dumb so-called reform.

9/21/2012 11:20:35 PM

http://youtu.be/ypRW5qoraTw

Sarah Silverman on GOP voter suppression tactics (NSFW)

9/22/2012 2:39:10 PM

wdprice3: maybe you did it for the lolz, but that's a seriously ignorant argument.

"He disagrees with my interpretation of the Constitution, so he's clearly ignorant of the Constitution?

9/22/2012 3:13:11 PM

Quote :

"Republicans are getting depressed under an avalanche of polling suggesting that an Obama victory is in the offing. They, in fact, suggest no such thing! Here’s why: 1. All of the polling out there uses some variant of the 2008 election turnout as its model for weighting respondents and this overstates the Democratic vote by a huge margin. In English, this means that when you do a poll you ask people if they are likely to vote. But any telephone survey always has too few blacks, Latinos, and young people and too many elderly in its sample. That’s because some don’t have landlines or are rarely at home or don’t speak English well enough to be interviewed or don’t have time to talk. Elderly are overstated because they tend to be home and to have time. So you need to increase the weight given to interviews with young people, blacks and Latinos and count those with seniors a bit less. Normally, this task is not difficult. Over the years, the black, Latino, young, and elderly proportion of the electorate has been fairly constant from election to election, except for a gradual increase in the Hispanic vote. You just need to look back at the last election to weight your polling numbers for this one. But 2008 was no ordinary election. Blacks, for example, usually cast only 11% of the vote, but, in 2008, they made up 14% of the vote. Latinos increased their share of the vote by 1.5% and college kids almost doubled their vote share. Almost all pollsters are using the 2008 turnout models in weighting their samples. Rasmussen, more accurately, uses a mixture of 2008 and 2004 turnouts in determining his sample. That’s why his data usually is better for Romney. But polling indicates a widespread lack of enthusiasm among Obama’s core demographic support due to high unemployment, disappointment with his policies and performance, and the lack of novelty in voting for a black candidate now that he has already served as president. If you adjust virtually any of the published polls to reflect the 2004 vote, not the 2008 vote, they show the race either tied or Romney ahead, a view much closer to reality. 2. Almost all of the published polls show Obama getting less than 50% of the vote and less than 50% job approval. A majority of the voters either support Romney or are undecided in almost every poll. But the fact is that the undecided vote always goes against the incumbent. In 1980 (the last time an incumbent Democrat was beaten), for example, the Gallup Poll of October 27th had Carter ahead by 45-39. Their survey on November 2nd showed Reagan catching up and leading by three points. In the actual voting, the Republican won by nine. The undecided vote broke sharply — and unanimously — for the challenger. An undecided voter has really decided not to back the incumbent. He just won’t focus on the race until later in the game. So, when the published poll shows Obama ahead by, say, 48-45, he’s really probably losing by 52-48! Add these two factors together and the polls that are out there are all misleading. Any professional pollster (those consultants hired by candidates not by media outlets) would publish two findings for each poll — one using 2004 turnout modeling and the other using 2008 modeling. This would indicate just how dependent on an unusually high turnout of his base the Obama camp really is."

http://www.dickmorris.com/why-the-polls-under-state-romney-vote/

[Edited on September 22, 2012 at 11:02 PM. Reason : /]

9/22/2012 11:01:09 PM