My first Soap Box thread...feels weird man.

Anyway, what do you think the odds are for 2015? Some sites are saying 75%.

I work for the government so honestly I wouldn't mind a mini-vacation

9/22/2015 1:20:32 PM

Damn, surely not 75%. I was thinking the opposite, like closer to 33% chance. Even the foaming-at-the-mouth contingent of the GOP seems to recognize that now is not really the time both with the economy puttering, an election coming up, and the fact that the PP videos were faked.

I personally think the media is really hyping it this time. I expect a lot of posturing and it probably coming down to the wire, but no lengthy shutdown.

Good luck on your mini-vacation though!

9/22/2015 5:10:42 PM

No fucking way this happens again. Cruz already blew his wad on this shit before, most of the idiots who joined him have learned their lesson, and plenty of GOP people are already taking steps to ensure it doesn't happen again.

I'd be curious to see where your 75% predictions are coming from.

Quote :

"My first Soap Box thread"

Negative, but close.

[Edited on September 23, 2015 at 12:44 AM. Reason : http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/23/us/politics/abortion-limits-bill-senate.html]

9/23/2015 12:43:41 AM

Quote :

"The problem with blaming the shutdown on Congressional partisans is that the partisans on either side know exactly what they want. When there are specific things you want, compromise is usually possible. The public in the middle, however, don't understand politics, only emotions given to them by TV, and so their beliefs are cobbled together in real time, improvised, as they get "more information." One trending topic at a time, each vacuum sealed to prevent cross contamination. They don't look at things historically, culturally, humanistically, or even selfishly, there exists no system for interpreting "the facts." Compromise becomes impossible, as a simple example, when a "moderate" "thinks" there should be more restrictions on guns, they want gun owners to give up something they want very much-- in exchange for nothing. "But it's the right thing to do!" And the yelling starts, in HD. Worse, they proudly announce their lack of ideology by branding themselves as Independents-- capital I, a thing, a demo. He willingly lessens his independence to become part of a group."

http://thelastpsychiatrist.com/2013/09/how_does_the_shutdown_relate_t.html

[Edited on September 23, 2015 at 9:08 AM. Reason : T]

9/23/2015 9:08:18 AM

re: 75% chance of shutdown

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/expect-a-government-shutdown-213164

^^what was my first TSB thread? probably some dumb shit when I was a noob. I hardly post in here, let alone make threads.

9/23/2015 1:41:49 PM

Shutting down the government over a highly produced video with an entirely fallacious premise. At least the last time they did it was over something sort of real, despite every single claim they've made about Obamacare turning out wrong. This is a new low.

9/23/2015 1:53:45 PM

^^ interesting, thanks.

9/23/2015 2:47:02 PM

bump. what are the odds?

12/15/2015 2:13:27 PM