Here we go... how does this end?

1) Trump follows the law and abides by court orders (lol): SC overturns his policies
2) Trump follows the law and abides by court orders (lol): SC upholds his policies
3) Civil unrest; Trump imposed martial law
4) Civil unrest; Trump gives in
5) Republicans grow a spine and force Trump to back down
6) Republicans give in; US descends into dictatorship
7) Trump "fires" federal judges, US descends into dictatorship
8) Trump impeached and removed
9) Trump and Vance impeached and removed
10) Military coup
11) Civil War 2: Electric Boogaloo

For reference, the Trump administration is currently in direct defiance of a federal judge's order to stop the federal funding freeze, after being ordered again on Monday to stop it.
https://www.wbur.org/news/2025/02/11/trump-epa-ira-environment-solar-for-all-funding-freeze

2/12/2025 12:01:07 AM

im going to go with dictatorship and civil war that ends in trumps favor

2/12/2025 2:33:19 PM

That wasn't an offered choice, exactly.

2/12/2025 3:04:35 PM

Quote :

"Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that judges blocking Trump administration actions were causing a constitutional crisis."

2/12/2025 4:36:06 PM

Those bastard judges. Interpreting the laws.

2/12/2025 6:18:50 PM

We should just ignore what the Supreme Court said about Presidential immunity then, right?

2/12/2025 7:47:53 PM

Congress is so cucked

2/13/2025 9:05:13 PM

What is the play here? He has a pass til midterms...

2/14/2025 2:41:58 AM

^^by their own fault

[Edited on February 14, 2025 at 3:36 AM. Reason : 1]

2/14/2025 3:36:33 AM

Guys we got to figure this out

2/25/2025 1:12:02 AM

i have an idea for democrats.

let judges do everything.

2/25/2025 7:39:00 AM

Here we go. Judge ordered the admin to turn around all planes carrying migrants pertaining to the order. Admin refused, saying the judge can't govern planes outside of US airspace. Officially defying court orders right now.

Almost forgot... they also deported a doctor whom a justification had explicitly ordered to be brought in to court tomorrow, and they did it after the order had been issued.

[Edited on March 16, 2025 at 9:13 PM. Reason : ]

3/16/2025 9:07:50 PM

The literal only thing that can stop this now is a supermajority of senators credibly threatening voting with democrats to convict on impeachment*

The 2nd thing is a violent counterinsurgency

It might take the threat of the latter to compel the former. I just dont see enough republican politicians on their own deciding that they need to stand up for democracy.

* the courts can send goons to jail the people who break the orders but trump will just keep pardoning them. Where do republicans in congress draw the line? And let’s say hypothetically we do even get this supermajority to convict trump and sentence removal— does he step down? Does Vance then pardon trump and he just marches back in like Elon musk?

We’re past crisis into singularity— I don’t know if we have any known political physics from stopping trump from doing anything he wants.

3/16/2025 10:00:41 PM

12. Trump does not follow the law. Courts rule against him. Maybe impose some sort of enforcement actions or something. Trump ignores that, too. Congress ignores it too, and/or contorts themselves into defending it. 10% of the electorate cheers it on. 10% is apoplectic. The other 80% mostly don't even hear about it, and if they do, a large percentage don't understand how big of a deal it is, think it's his political opponents beating a drum against him and that "they all do shit like this", or maybe would rather him not do things like this, but the other side won't STFU about LatinX trannies, which is clearly a bigger deal.

3/16/2025 10:02:41 PM

Quote :

"The literal only thing that can stop this now is a supermajority of senators credibly threatening voting with democrats to convict on impeachment*"

The odds of that are 0.0%.

Quote :

"The 2nd thing is a violent counterinsurgency"

The odds of that are 0.00001%. Most people aren't aware; of those, very few genuinely give a fuck.

and if it did happen, the GOP would just paint them as domestic terrorists, or at the very least paint the entire political left as yet again throwing a bitch fit and setting things on fire when they don't get their way.

Quote :

"Where do republicans in congress draw the line?"

they don't. they aren't going to. if they were going to, it would have long since been done.

the only thing that will stop it is if trump fucks up the lives and livelihood of enough people to become wildly unpopular. Like totally, overwhelmingly radioactive, far beyond his previously high levels of unpopularity. They will have to fear the alternatives more than they fear the GOP base in primaries and elections, right-wing media, and the physical danger from MAGA crazies, and it will have to be clear that it will not be a passing phase they can ride out.

3/16/2025 10:10:02 PM

^I don’t think that will even do it. The current stock market correction is 100% directly tied to trump malfeasance. And trump people are selling this as necessary pain, and maga is buying it. A recent poll had 37% of the country identifying as part of the “MAGA movement”. If someone is identifying themselves this way, I think they’re subconsciously committed to ignoring any violence from trump as long as they’re not the targets.

The other thing is that populist fascist policies by definition avoid targeting the majority. If we’re waiting for the majority to feel some sort of direct pain I don’t think that’s happening until things escalate to some sort of martial law scenario, which is too late anyway for any peaceful resolutions.

A political pundit here has outlined other ways interactions with state national guards can go south.
https://bsky.app/profile/brandonfriedman.bsky.social/post/3lkjq4rlxdk2t

I guess the 3rd option is that trump somehow wins over democrats and there’s no actual conflict— we’re just MAGA America now.

3/16/2025 10:32:33 PM

Quote :

"^I don’t think that will even do it. The current stock market correction is 100% directly tied to trump malfeasance. And trump people are selling this as necessary pain, and maga is buying it. A recent poll had 37% of the country identifying as part of the “MAGA movement”. If someone is identifying themselves this way, I think they’re subconsciously committed to ignoring any violence from trump as long as they’re not the targets."

It will have to be much more severe and much more prolonged. A run-of-the-mill stock market correction over the course of a few weeks is nowhere close to enough...even if it was completely needlessly self-inflicted.

Quote :

"The other thing is that populist fascist policies by definition avoid targeting the majority. If we’re waiting for the majority to feel some sort of direct pain I don’t think that’s happening until things escalate to some sort of martial law scenario, which is too late anyway for any peaceful resolutions."

Maybe. In terms of pissing all over the rule of law, for sure. That stuff will not target the majority. It will be bad for everyone, but not directly in the immediate term, which is all that your average rube can see. At best.

In terms of fucking up the economy and the basic "making the trains run on time" competence of the government...maybe.

Quote :

"I guess the 3rd option is that trump somehow wins over democrats and there’s no actual conflict— we’re just MAGA America now."

I don't really see that happening. That would require him not fucking up everything he touches. If that happened, it would be because there really was so much winning, we would be tired of winning...that he re-wrote the rules of the game because he did everything differently and magically cracked the code for the better and everyone recognized his [very stable] genius. He would be elevated into the ranks of Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln...or at least in the tier of TR, Eisenhower, JFK, FDR, and Reagan.

That would be awesome.

I'm not holding my breath. For many decades, it is clear that Everything Trump Touches Dies. I don't expect him to stun us all now with not totally fucking the dog at every possible opportunity.

[Edited on March 17, 2025 at 12:45 AM. Reason : ]

3/17/2025 12:35:35 AM

Homan: "We're not stopping. I don't care what the judges think. I don't care what the left thinks. We're coming."

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lklgjbbqio2w

Between the concentration camp in El Salvador, and trump trying to undo the Biden pardons, seems like we’re deep in a crisis… we essentially have congress and a smattering of courts Vs trump + doj + fbi + ice

3/17/2025 11:42:28 AM

students of history:

when do the assassinations start during something like this?

3/17/2025 1:36:10 PM

The stock market loves a constitutional crisis!

3/17/2025 2:46:37 PM

lol snewf wants to know about assassinations as he fumes over his stock losses

3/18/2025 7:41:02 AM

to be fair, I'm also fuming over the suspension of habeas corpus, innumerable violations of federal law, and several constitutional rights violations

the off-shoring of concentration camps is pretty catastrophically bad, too

but, go on, act like things are fine

3/21/2025 10:16:59 AM

Quote :

"students of history: when do the assassinations start during something like this?"

Normally they don't. At least, not more frequently than they do during normal times, for the most part.

In the United States, we've had 4 Presidents assassinated and a handful who came close. The majority were lone nutjobs trying to take out normal Presidents for crazy reasons. The biggest exception is Lincoln, who was targeted by a group of sane assholes. Inarguably huge assholes, but not crazy. JFK is a question mark, since we don't have a clear picture of Oswald's motives.

Elsewhere you also don't see a ton. Hitler had a few go after him, mostly later in the war when Germany faced an existential crisis to a degree we haven't reached yet - though there was the notable exception of Georg Elser, who tried to blow up the Nazi leadership early on in an effort to avert war. But plenty of dictators drove their countries into the ground without facing any serious attempts.

3/22/2025 1:53:44 PM

Quote :

"Favorability rating in recent YouGov/Economist polls: Bernie Sanders: +7 Elissa Slotkin: +1 JB Pritzker: Even AOC: -3 Pete Buttigieg: -3 Donald Trump: -5 JD Vance: -8 Elon Musk: -12 Gavin Newsom: -15 Rep. Party: -12 Chuck Schumer: -33 Dem. Party: -35 https://gelliottmorris.substack.com/p/who-is-the-most-popular-us-elected "

We’re not a serious country

3/25/2025 5:19:06 PM

I R SERIOUS COUNTRY!

3/25/2025 7:01:09 PM

Add it to the list of polls saying Musk is unpopular since Q insisted being mean to him would hurt bc he's so popular.

3/25/2025 8:35:24 PM

https://www.npr.org/2025/03/30/g-s1-57231/trump-third-term

Quote :

"Trump is 'not joking' about third term, though Constitution says he can't serve"

3/31/2025 9:37:12 AM

Probably will be something akin to the arrangement Medvedev and Putin had. Vance or Trump Jr will technically be pres, but daddy will be calling the shots

3/31/2025 10:00:42 AM

Think JD would actually go in for that arrangement and just give up the Presidency, assuming he has it?

3/31/2025 10:38:38 AM

Most definitely

3/31/2025 7:34:55 PM

He has his own ambitions, and I would guess doesn't even really like Trump.

4/1/2025 6:40:04 AM

Assuming Vance would win any election, which I seriously doubt he will.

4/1/2025 10:36:37 AM

Vance is basically a fag version of trump nttawwt

4/1/2025 10:04:16 PM

Incoming

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/trump-administration-asks-scotus-block-order-return-man-mistakenly-dep-rcna199979

4/7/2025 3:51:41 PM

And Roberts delays the lower court order.

4/7/2025 4:25:39 PM

We can't really call it a constitutional crisis when a higher court makes a decision and overrules a lower court before the lower court's deadline.

4/7/2025 4:26:42 PM

Agreed

4/7/2025 5:33:03 PM

Don't worry. We have plenty of time to develop one. I know we can do it!

4/7/2025 5:49:02 PM

5 alarm fire if the fed reserve falls

Quote :

"US INSIGHT: Roberts Nudges Fed Closer to Loss of Independence By David Wilcox (Economist) (Bloomberg Economics) -- The Fed's ability to conduct monetary policy free of political interference is under imminent threat. On April 9, the legal struggle over this issue moved one step closer to the climactic battle. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts reversed a lower-court ruling and allowed President Donald Trump to proceed, for now, with firing two officials who lead independent agencies. Their legal situation is the same as that of Federal Reserve governors - making the outcome of their cases pivotal to the Fed's own independence. Roberts ordered lawyers for the two fired officials to respond by April 15. It's increasingly clear the issue eventually will be argued before the Supreme Court."

4/10/2025 7:16:47 PM

^ it was so better when they were unaccountable to anyone and could print money indescriminitely to give to asset holders. Why should the middle class own homes?

4/11/2025 7:02:25 AM

Come on, guy. You know that removing independence and putting economic policy in the hands of one person who is known to be an idiot is a staggeringly bad idea. Don't be disingenuous.

4/11/2025 3:20:26 PM

That's his shtick, guy! (Although sometimes it's hard to tell if he's disingenuously trolling or if he really believes the stupid stuff he says)

4/11/2025 3:31:06 PM

Yeah, I know, but I don't want to encourage it.

4/11/2025 5:21:12 PM

Trump admin is defying a Supreme Court order to return a man accidentally sent to El Salvador

Every rendition person needs to be returned

4/12/2025 8:04:02 PM