1/28/2010 10:49:52 PM

Quote :

"also mentions that Triangle could be in a thunder snow situation"

had that shit a few weeks ago. it's really, really weird to hear thunder and see lightning while you're sledding in a foot of snow.

1/28/2010 10:51:47 PM

Quote :

"Just walked to mailbox, covered with ice after just ten minutes of ice.......oh goodness "

Quote :

"It wasn't supposed to get below freezing till after midnight........its now around 34 I think. Its freezing rain/sleet........and immediately sticking to surfaces."

From the thread on the Accuweather forums, from someone in TN.



[Edited on January 28, 2010 at 11:47 PM. Reason : ]

1/28/2010 11:46:35 PM

My latest call:

1/28/2010 11:56:51 PM

TWC is saying primarily a mix and freezing rain in Raleigh. WTF are they basing that off of?

1/29/2010 1:33:40 AM

^^ You live in Southern Pines.

I used to live in Seven Lakes. That area is HORRIBLE for freezing rain. Absolutely horrible!

1/29/2010 1:52:07 AM

In response to the picture of Emily Byrd from Fox8 on the last page...

Quote :

"That right there is why broadcast journalists pretending to be mets give actual meteorologists a bad name."

She graduated from NCSU with a meteorology degree. The reason the graphic still says its a guess is because, well, that's all you really can do to a point. Synonyms for prediction include the word "guess."
Van Denton had a snowfall forecast posted for the area Tuesday afternoon which he emphasized was a very early guess. He hasn't had to change it much.

Quote :

"Could they pick any more heinous colors to create precipitation gradients with? Being red green color blind, those pinks and purples and off colors of blue-green-whatever-it-is are really hard to distinguish between."

I'll mention that to Van - though the color gradients are part of Weather Central, and not necessarily something chosen for this event.

1/29/2010 2:38:56 AM

Quote :

"She graduated from NCSU with a meteorology degree."

Then she should know better. Almost as bad as using sprinkle as meteorological nomenclature.

At any rate...not too much change in recent model runs, which is encouraging from a scientific standpoint. The only thing that's really left is to see how much the numbers match up with reality. RDU BUFKIT still shows a majority of snow, with some embedded sleet. Judging by early morning runs, Raleigh could have 8 inches of snow before you ever see sleet. Pretty awesome.

Fayetteville, however, remains completely screwed.

1/29/2010 7:37:57 AM

^ Surprisingly television weatherpersons' first priority is to communicate efficiently and effectively with the layperson.

The use of "sprinkle" is the correct word to use.

1/29/2010 7:42:31 AM

If they don't understand drizzle instead of sprinkle...

...just sayin. I understand fully what a TV meteorologists job is and it's not easy. My issue lies with the fact that everyone associates being a meteorologist to a broadcast meteorologist.

Doesn't change the fact that IT'S GON SNOW

1/29/2010 7:46:14 AM

ok weather nerds...whats the latest.

thumper...what does your meteorologist say?

1/29/2010 8:55:20 AM

we haven't gotten an update yet. but he's in a pow-wow with the managers right now so i'm guessing an email is coming within the hour.

1/29/2010 9:03:35 AM

haha, managers have to sign off on weather forecasts??

1/29/2010 9:04:34 AM

a bad snow/ice storm is a very big deal in my business. you don't know what kind of industry i'm in. don't make assumptions.

he's meeting with the managers to discuss the trends of the storm, timelines for accumulation, and worst-case scenarios. we have people here 24/7 and we have generators so that we stay up and running.

extreme weather is a big deal here.

1/29/2010 9:06:09 AM

what kind of business are you in?

1/29/2010 9:22:21 AM

i could tell ya, but i'd have to kill ya.

1/29/2010 9:30:03 AM

1/29/2010 9:30:58 AM

i can't wait to get some pics of my dogs in the snow!!

1/29/2010 9:34:12 AM

ok so i just had an interesting email convo with weather boy.

Quote :

"not trying to bug you...but have things changed with the storm? "

Quote :

"I still think we could see 10-14’’ of snow. "

Quote :

"Seriously? That's awesome. What makes you say that, and why doesn't WRAL say that?"

Quote :

"Everything I am seeing is mostly snow for us. A lot of private forecasters are also going pretty high around here. Joe Bastardi from Accuweather was also saying Raleigh should see 8-16’’ of snow. I think WRAL is trying to be in line with what the government is saying, so that’s why they are lower. The government is typically more conservative and a little slower on giving out big snow amounts….not sure if its anything political or what. I’d expect them to increase their total tonight. The government has slowly increased theirs since yesterday. "

1/29/2010 9:39:33 AM

The RAH WFO has been abysmal this winter weather season. Even surrounding WFOs have been much quicker and much more open about an event that has been pretty well captured and consistent for the most part.

Much of the reasoning behind that most likely lies with the fact that the RAH office has the problem of a drastic difference of p-types and amounts across its area. Not to mention that this is such a sensitive winter weather region as far as the public is concerned.

He's right though, in amounts. I think WRAL and NWS (NWS significantly so) are understating the amounts here...Raleigh could see well in excess of 10-12" of snow before it ever gets sleet if the projections remain on course.

1/29/2010 9:46:47 AM

i'm actually somewhat excited now, i really really really wanna take a walk around the neighborhood on sunday in a foot of snow

1/29/2010 9:51:54 AM

what are they saying about the melting potential of the snow? I know that the temps are supposed to barely get out of the 30s this weekend, will this carry over into next week?

Just want to know how much work to bring home this weekend

1/29/2010 9:55:19 AM

Monday will be a hard travel day with relatively normal commuting possible Tuesday.

1/29/2010 9:56:41 AM

normal commuting meaning that the main roads will be clear while secondary roads will still be a mess? or all roads should be clear enough to travel?

1/29/2010 9:58:40 AM

fuck yeah!! the latest weatherscope run shows us getting pretty much all snow with just a few periods of sleet!!

1/29/2010 10:00:29 AM

^^main travel routes should be good. side roads have issues. fayetteville will have some major problems (though one could argue you should never go there anyway).

1/29/2010 10:01:18 AM

I was going to buy an Xbox 360 this weekend, but I'm going to be moving that up today. I'm also going to be purchasing an ample amount of alcohol. Better safe than sorry, I always say.

1/29/2010 10:28:36 AM

But does this get murkier with the chance of wintry mix/rain again on Tuesday? Not that I'm looking forward to missing work or anything.

1/29/2010 10:28:52 AM

^Yeah, Tuesday's system can really have an impact on this. Right now, they're showing rain at 41*, but if that temperature goes down, it'll get really messy. Some models though are showing that rain coming in Thursday instead of Tuesday, so it may be a non-issue at that point.

1/29/2010 10:35:58 AM

My accumulation map as posted above remains relatively unchanged as of now. Some should see a big hit from this. To answer another question yes I am in Southern Pines. I plan on driving north to be in the jackpot zone for this event though. On a side note I finished NCSU's meteorology program this past year in case people are wondering why I posted these maps.

1/29/2010 10:36:45 AM

eyewall...what online source do you use to see model predictions and where are you getting your maps from?

1/29/2010 10:44:08 AM

I make my forecast maps in photoshop using a blank template I found online. As for model maps I usually go with the NCEP pages linked off of the NWS Raleigh main page. For model soundings twisterdata.com and plymouth state are very useful.

1/29/2010 11:00:48 AM

cool thanks!!

1/29/2010 11:14:13 AM

No problem and to also clarify I am not as new to the wolf web as my post count would suggest. I had an earlier account but I lost the password and once NCSU shut off my unity account I couldn't retrieve it. So I had to create this one for future use.

1/29/2010 11:21:25 AM

Well luckily I was able to get all my deliveries for this weekend rescheduled to this morning so now it can go ahead and snow a foot if it wants I suppose

1/29/2010 11:40:16 AM

^^qntmfred can help with password recovery if you want access to your old account.

1/29/2010 12:03:12 PM

1/29/2010 12:03:32 PM

OK so can you put the remaining overall ofrcaste issues into layman's terms and is this really you final call. i bet you do another one around 5 today.

1/29/2010 12:08:10 PM

my guy says it's gonna start 10pm at the earliest, but that right now he doesn't think his forecast will change much aka he doesn't think the storm will move/change/whatever

1/29/2010 12:09:38 PM

i'm going to feel like i'm a little kid again living in NJ.

snow forts for everyone!!!!

1/29/2010 12:11:58 PM

I have no idea charlotte's forcast over here. I've heard all freezing rain, and some are saying up to 6".

1/29/2010 12:13:33 PM

Sparky this is it. I will be "snow chasing" later this evening. In laymans terms it basically means how much warm air above the surface gets in here. UVV's basically mean how fast the air is rising. Air cools as it is lifted. Finally the convection refers to thunderstorms that fire near the gulf coast. Sometimes that can rob us of some moisture and lower amounts.

[Edited on January 29, 2010 at 12:16 PM. Reason : .]

1/29/2010 12:15:51 PM

ok so what do the dewpoint and wetbulb temps have an affect on? if i'm correct the temperature can't dip below the dewpoint temp right?

1/29/2010 12:17:26 PM

so i was just looking at the wral snowcast and they are calling for snow to start around 10 PM tonight and snow until 4PM at which time it will switch to sleet and then switch back to snow around 8PM and continue to snow till midnight. if that is the case the storm will be hanging around a lot longer then initially thought. earlier forecasts had the precip stopping around noon on saturday.

1/29/2010 12:28:38 PM

well the temp can crash the dewpoint for sure (in which case the dewpoint would drop with the temp). Wetbulb is basically the temp at which air would cool too at saturation. A snowflake would essentially behave according to the wetbulb temp but more importantly one precip starts if wetbulbs are below freezing the air temp will drop to a point close to that temp.

1/29/2010 1:10:07 PM

one last update from our guy:

Quote :

"I don’t see any major changes to the forecast from what I sent out yesterday. We could see some scattered light snow or sleet showers begin around 7 or 8pm but the onslaught of more widespread and heavier snow looks to occur around midnight or after. Heavy snow showers can be expected early tomorrow morning and into early tomorrow afternoon with the possibility of sleet mixing in at times. Thereafter, we should see lighter amounts of snow occur tomorrow afternoon into early Sunday morning. I still think 10-14’’ of snow is possible across the Triangle, with about a tenth of an inch of sleet mixing in at times. We will also see gusty winds out of the north around 15-20 mph. South of the area, around the Sandhills and southeastern NC, could experience significant ice of ½’’ or more. I don’t think we will see that much ice around the Raleigh area, but I will keep an eye on it for any changes to the forecast. We are currently under a Winter Storm Warning from 6pm this evening until midnight Saturday night."

1/29/2010 1:31:25 PM

ttt4snow

1/29/2010 7:44:42 PM

^^My guy totally called it starting at 7pm

1/29/2010 7:45:30 PM

SNOWFLAKES IN GARNER

1/29/2010 7:52:22 PM

We've got a pretty good coating on cars/grass and it's starting to stick to the roads. I'm in Cary, right near Southpoint.

1/29/2010 8:05:07 PM