Plus you're getting 2 dividend payments between now and then.

Which is another 4% if you bought today.

6/1/2010 4:30:12 PM

yep, that also entered into the equation.

6/1/2010 4:39:35 PM

picked up some aapl july 260 puts this morning and sold them this afternoon for a 10% profit. not bad. definitely not wanting to risk shorting aapl (in any capacity) for too long.

6/1/2010 4:48:09 PM

yeah, i'm not really down with shorting anything.

6/1/2010 4:50:08 PM

^ what about BP?

Did many people short it when they heard about the oil spill?

6/1/2010 5:48:47 PM

i picked up 200 shares of bp today at 36.81. everyone wants to be part of the recovery. this is a long term pick up for me.

6/1/2010 7:13:43 PM

^^^^ lol i asked that without reading the last page where you said you bought some

if i had the accounts etc, i'd probably [still] consider shorting it for a while. shows u what i know.


ps where is chance to swoop in here and tell me i'm mildly retarded, only to look like an idiot 6 months later when I'm proven right. i miss that little guy

6/1/2010 8:05:03 PM

my bet would be that BP reduces dividend to $.01

6/1/2010 9:41:14 PM

picked up some $spy june 106 puts this morning at $2....they are now at $1.45 $1.30 fantastic

[Edited on June 2, 2010 at 4:04 PM. Reason : not $1.45...now $1.30]

6/2/2010 3:36:54 PM

Quote :

"my bet would be that BP reduces dividend to $.01 "

Smartest thing i've read on page 10

6/2/2010 3:39:50 PM

Quote :

""my bet would be that BP reduces dividend to $.01"

that might be on the high side

"my bet would be that BP reduces dividend to $.01

6/2/2010 4:09:54 PM

^ oops meant to link to an article saying there was pressure to not pay a dividend at all...but i can't find it now

6/3/2010 9:37:38 PM

when they sell everything including gold - that's just fear. but they went from selling everything to selling everything but gold - that's bearish.

anybody buying right now? part of me wants to right now. are Mondays known for massive drops?

6/4/2010 2:19:44 PM

[Edited on June 4, 2010 at 2:52 PM. Reason : nevermind. my situation is too complicated to explain well...]

6/4/2010 2:48:51 PM

ok, picked up a bit of EDC

6/4/2010 2:57:51 PM

Euro below $1.20

I think I might buy that Stowa watch that I was looking at now that it's $100+ cheaper due to the exchange rate.

6/4/2010 3:17:19 PM

at the least, the Euro will go to parity with USD.

just watching cautiously and setting some trailing stops for now..

6/7/2010 12:35:55 PM

Hopefully it will keep falling and Europe will become the new Mexico.

I'd love to see a Senor Frog's at the Eiffel Tower.

6/7/2010 3:37:43 PM

You guys are gonna hate me, but I am cheering this sell off on the dow. I sidelined everything at 10.5, and I wont step back in until either the mood changes considerably, or the DOW gets down to 8000-8500 (I think there is a good chance it will head there). I am hoping to ride it back up, and make money out of riding the same index twice.

6/7/2010 4:20:46 PM

I'd suggest you at least give yourself a little bit of exposure. You might be right, but putting all of your eggs in one basket could mean missing an uptick.

Personally I love the mood now and the volatility that it's generating. It's a great environment for an option trader.

6/7/2010 4:25:01 PM

I dont want any exposure right now. I had about 50% bonds, 50% equities with about 5% of the equities foreign. I was up on all sections except foreign equities, and I've been nervous about the ridiculous gains my bonds have been giving me for months.

I have always been pretty good at timing the market. its seemed apparent when to get out, and apparent when to get in. I'm convinced there is no good place to be right now that doesnt have considerable risk. For that reason, even though I could miss out on a rally, I'd rather be sidelined, then watch my portfolio go away.

That doesnt mean I'll be right, but I have been damned accurate in the past, and until the Eurozone gets ironed out, I think the potential for bad things to happen is more present than the potential for good things.

I'll gladly eat crow if the market rallies back above 11k.

[Edited on June 7, 2010 at 4:33 PM. Reason : .]

6/7/2010 4:32:47 PM

Quote :

"I'd suggest you at least give yourself a little bit of exposure. You might be right, but putting all of your eggs in one basket could mean missing an uptick. Personally I love the mood now and the volatility that it's generating. It's a great environment for an option trader. "

I agree with CarZin but I did buy some KMP today to begin a position. Right now I have 50% cash in my portfolio going to enjoy from the sidelines as the DOW dives. I got stopped out at FCX at $68, RIMM at $68, and BRK/B at $74 during the "flash crash." Since then all these have been trending lower.

The only thing in my account right now is some "accidental high yielders"

VZ
CVX
KMP

and I got some GLW June 16's. I was hoping for a 2-3 day rally to get me back to even but may have to dump these soon if the market continues to be doom and gloom to take some money before expiration date.

6/7/2010 5:11:36 PM

Good buying opp now.

Fundamentals are strong, earnings season will be good, and internationals are oversold on fear...

6/7/2010 6:50:59 PM

I'm really looking forward to the CNBC thing on Lehman Brothers this Friday.

6/8/2010 12:13:53 PM

Quote :

"Fundamentals are strong, earnings season will be good, and internationals are oversold on fear... "

is that a general statement or in regards to one of my picks??

6/8/2010 1:21:43 PM

Are you guys going to keep buying bp all the way down or have you given up yet?

6/8/2010 4:58:15 PM

overlay a chart of the EURJPY with the U.S. market, it is tick for tick. money flow, retail investors, overbought/oversold, TA, blah blah blah....it's all just noise. it is all about the robots swapping shares in the currency carry trade. that is 99% of the market volume and direction...nothing else matters. when/if the euro catches a bottom we will head back up, probably sharply. if it goes up in smoke then well, so do the world markets. it's one big global casino, minus China. as an "investor" though, I would bet against worldwide destruction every time.

6/8/2010 5:15:35 PM

^^^ in general, you'll see earnings that beat analyst estimates and P/E ratios below historic averages across the majority of sectors

6/8/2010 5:59:48 PM

Quote :

"Are you guys going to keep buying bp all the way down or have you given up yet? "

6/9/2010 12:29:51 PM

isn't the bad news gonna keep streaming in for BP over the next couple months...meaning it's going to *continue* to drop from this point on? I realize the fundamentals are way off, but the constant stream of bad news seems to be trumping that at the moment

6/9/2010 2:35:10 PM

well, I picked up BP today at $33/share. Didn't think it would keep plunging, but this is one I bought for the long haul, not short term.

6/9/2010 3:05:22 PM

I really don't think buying BP is a smart move at the moment. The president is pushing to raise the liability cap, they are under investigation for criminal wrongdoing, they have a huge cleanup bill on their plate. If you want in on oil, I think USO would be the better way to go

[Edited on June 9, 2010 at 3:21 PM. Reason : This is besides my hippy self thinking that buying BP right now makes you a terrible person.]

6/9/2010 3:21:10 PM

Damn. RST down 10% on news that it's CFO is leaving.

6/9/2010 3:23:58 PM

Even if BP does survive the fines, cleanup & litigation - imagine 1 year from now, you're a BP engineer trying to drill off the coast of, let's say, Brazil. Do you realize the uphill battle you're fighting gov'ts to let you drill anywhere? Will you even be able to attract top flight engineers, who'll likely look at that fight and walk away. Sure, you could pay them more to work for you, but now your cost basis is too high. I don't like the prospects for BP...long or short term...

6/9/2010 6:42:13 PM

Do any of you mess with closed mutual funds or ETFs much? I'm pretty new to investing and am basically looking for an account that will icrease quicker than a normal savings account. The goal is the purchase a house in about a year. So some risk is no problem but I don't want to do anything crazy like purchase BP shares on a hunch that it will rebound within that time.

From what I understand there are closed and open ended mutual funds. The open funds carry a percentage charged on the front or back end of the trade. The closed funds are bought and sold more like stocks. I believe ETFs are traded like close ended funds but are priced based on their NAV and the price is updated just once per day. Is this correct?

From what I have read the risk/reward level of an agressive growth ETF or mutual fund would be right up my alley. I've set up a Tradeking account and am currently in the 5 day hold period it requires for initial deposit to clear. I would appreciate any advice you guys have.

[Edited on June 9, 2010 at 8:54 PM. Reason : fg]

6/9/2010 8:53:37 PM

how can you buy BP for the "long term" when they may not even exist as an independent company in 3-6 months?

This baby is headed down much further there is no reason to buy now... no company is going to buy them until they are guaranteed limited liability for the purchase. And beyond that, the company that buys them isnt going to pay $30fuckingdollarspershare. I just don't get the rational behind buying now, you have almost nothing to gain and possibly everything to lose.

6/9/2010 10:46:33 PM

^^ If you plan on needing the money in a year I'd just let it sit in a money market or high yield savings account. You should not be investing in anything aggressive.

6/10/2010 9:36:18 AM

^^ I don't think BP is going to fold like people are saying. Sure, they may (and probably will) cut their dividend, but that's not the end of the world. They have plenty of cash and more on the way - according to Yahoo, they have nearly $7 billion in cash, and profits of $5.59 billion in the first quarter of this year? I think I've heard that they have already spent something like $1 billion, but even if they spend six times that, they've basically just broke even for one quarter? How many companies are out there losing money - I don't think breaking even for one quarter, or even one year would be a huge deal for BP.

Who would buy BP? Is there any company out there big enough to be able to afford it?

6/10/2010 10:14:14 AM

Mutual Funds are for suckers, lazy people who do not feel like managing their money, and for old people who have little understanding of the stock market.

6/10/2010 11:58:30 AM

^^ and even if they suspend the dividend for a quarter or two, it would just be for political reasons--they just end up with more cash on hand, and could pay it out once this blows over, or just let it eventually be priced back into the shares.

6/10/2010 12:29:51 PM

Quote :

"SEC OKs 'flash crash' fix NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission approved new rules Thursday that will halt trading uniformly across all U.S. markets for stocks experiencing wild price swings to prevent a repeat of last month's "flash crash." Under the new rules, which could go into effect as early as Friday, exchanges are required to stop trading in an individual stock for five minutes across U.S. stock markets if the stock experiences a 10% price swing in the preceding five-minute period. The pause, also called a circuit breaker, "would give the markets the opportunity to attract new trading interest in an affected stock, establish a reasonable market price, and resume trading in a fair and orderly fashion," the SEC said in a statement. The SEC proposed the rules last month in response to the market's so-called "flash crash," when about 30 stocks dropped at least 10% in a five-minute period and the Dow Jones industrial average (DJIA) plummeted nearly 1,000 points. "The May 6 market disruption illustrated a sudden, but temporary, breakdown in the market's price setting function when a number of stocks and ETFs were executed at clearly irrational prices," SEC Chairwoman Mary Schapiro said in a prepared statement. "By establishing a set of circuit breakers that uniformly pauses trading in a given security across all venues, these new rules will ensure that all markets pause simultaneously and provide time for buyers and sellers to trade at rational prices," Schapiro said. The new rules are expected to be adopted as early as Friday and will be implemented on a pilot basis through Dec. 10 to give markets time to make adjustments to the new circuit breakers, according to the SEC. As of now, the pause will only apply to stocks in the Standard & Poor index, but the SEC said it hopes to expand the rules to include other securities "as soon as practicable.""

http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/10/markets/SEC_circuit_breakers_rules/index.htm?hpt=T2

What if something is down 10%+ on the open due to bad earnings or news?

6/10/2010 3:07:05 PM

I must be missing something here monetarily. BP made 6 Bil in Q1 (annualized thats close to 24 bil) and this little accident is going to cost them, what 1 bil? So for you math folks, 6 bil in 3 months equals 2 bil a month. So a billion dollar accident cost them two weeks pay? Even with the insurance, paying out these folks and fines are we looking at anything close to 2 bil which would gasp, be a months revenue? Obviously this doesn't take into account politcal risk but this isn't striking me as disaster, end of world, let's all live in the basement with batteries and candles type stuff if I'm BP. That said I wouldn't be pulling the trigger anytime soon.

And up above someone mentioned needing money in a year and trying to trade stocks, that's text book bad news.

^ Well, worst case, they stop trading, then realize it's because of a legitimate factor such as bad earnings, and then resume in 5 minutes???

[Edited on June 10, 2010 at 3:18 PM. Reason : .]

6/10/2010 3:17:05 PM

It could cost them a lot more money than that, but I still think it's significantly oversold.

6/10/2010 5:00:29 PM

^^ 1 billion???? That is what they've already spent.

You are looking at cleanup costs, punitive damages, LAWSUITS, lost revenues, government regulation going forward if they DO survive the next few months.

Cleanup costs are going to cost at a minimum $20 billion i would think, and I'd be surprised if its not 2-3x that.

In all likelihood I think they'll be sold in a few months to a company that is granted limited loss liability.

I'm generally a pessimist in these situations, but the #1 rule of investing is don't lose money.

Investing in BP just seems like an easy way to lose money.

6/10/2010 6:20:46 PM

your LAWSUITS will take over a decade to settle. The LAWSUIT the Kodiak commerical fisherman had against Exxon for their spill in 1989 was not finally settled until 2008. Lawyers are very crafty. The original number Exxon was sued for was around $2.5 billion. The final number settled upon was ~$500 million. Then, that same year, Exxon turned around and sued the state of Alaska for $800 million claiming they violated contracts on the North Slope.

6/10/2010 11:07:26 PM

BP made $6 billion profit in Q1 and has $8.3 billion cash on hand.

Even though costs may be over $20 billion the stock is down over $90 billion.

Worst case scenario (which is slim) is them restructuring and shutting down BP North America, which is about 25% of their global operation.

BP is one of the greatest cash machines in the world. It's not Lehman Brothers. Their biggest problem is that the only other big story in the US is Joran van der Sloot so they get top billing in the news every night.

Of course, by posting this I am guaranteeing that BP will shut down completely and I'll look like an ass.

6/10/2010 11:47:20 PM

Playing BP as it hasn't found a real bottom is nothing more than gambling. You can tell yourself "it won't go bankrupt, right" and "well, it could go down more, but it will come back, right", but be honest to yourself. No one really knows what will happen. You're essentially gambling that the oils spill is only as bad as we think it is right now. There is nothing preventing that situation from going to worse overnight, and you'll be down another 25%. Rather than being greedy and trying to catch the falling knife, wait for real confirmation the situation has stabilized and then scale into positions. Everything else and Vegas might be a better bet.

6/11/2010 6:57:16 AM

It can get even worse, the stock is already oversold.

I'm also cutting my risk and my bottom line by playing the option chain on my BP holdings.

I'm on the fence as to whether or not the dividend will be cut. There's been a bit of an uproar over the past few days as people realize that the big victims of a cut would be their pension funds, while it wouldn't do much damage to BP at all.

[Edited on June 11, 2010 at 2:09 PM. Reason : *I AM NOT A SCIENTIST]

6/11/2010 2:06:29 PM

The faster BP goes into bankruptcy the better for them, because they wouldn't be liable for the costs incurred after the bankruptcy.

I doubt they'll be allowed to declare very soon though, that would be a political nightmare if they weasel themselves out of the cleanup costs.

Either way, this isn't going to end well for the shareholders. You never want to fight the government right before an election, this stock is a dog.

6/13/2010 7:11:48 PM

I am SO pissed. Had only I held those June 10 $95 calls on Netflix 4 more days. I would have made $2000 instead of only $500

6/14/2010 12:34:58 PM