Sayer now with sarcasm 9841 Posts user info edit post |
![](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1211W5_NL+gif/143428W5_NL_sm.gif)
8/29/2011 10:42:15 AM
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wolfpackgrrr All American 39759 Posts user info edit post |
Damn wonder if that will strengthen. 8/29/2011 10:43:11 AM
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Sayer now with sarcasm 9841 Posts user info edit post |
It'll strengthen.
Future Hurricane Katia right there. 8/29/2011 10:49:37 AM
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Smath74 All American 93277 Posts user info edit post |
it will never reach us. 8/29/2011 11:56:15 AM
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wolfpackgrrr All American 39759 Posts user info edit post |
Now that you've said that we're screwed ![](images/mad.gif) 8/29/2011 11:58:05 AM
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DoubleDown All American 9382 Posts user info edit post |
This next one is the Storm of the Century 8/29/2011 12:03:10 PM
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Samwise16 All American 12710 Posts user info edit post |
Yikes....
So I have a question - if this goes to the gulf instead of the east coast, would you guys continue to keep updating the thread? 8/29/2011 12:17:42 PM
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Senez All American 8112 Posts user info edit post |
I don't see why not.
That said, this storm won't be reaching the Gulf. Based on what we know now.
] 8/29/2011 12:20:10 PM
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TKE-Teg All American 43387 Posts user info edit post |
Yes. I'm pretty sure we have in the past. Afterall, this isn't an "Atlantic" Tropical Storm/Hurricane thread ![](images/wink.gif)
Here's a cool image that shows how much heat Irene yanked out of the ocean:
![](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/irene_heat_loss.png?w=640&h=399)
You can also see the growing La Nina on the left. 8/29/2011 12:20:42 PM
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Samwise16 All American 12710 Posts user info edit post |
Ok just checking so it definitely won't come to the gulf? How do they determine that? Currents and whatnot? 8/29/2011 12:22:58 PM
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Senez All American 8112 Posts user info edit post |
Yeah, something like that. 8/29/2011 12:23:43 PM
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Samwise16 All American 12710 Posts user info edit post |
Not exactly the detailed answer I was hoping for ![](images/beatup.gif) 8/29/2011 12:31:27 PM
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Sayer now with sarcasm 9841 Posts user info edit post |
The real forecasting model involves a chicken, an axe and a kazoo 8/29/2011 12:40:56 PM
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CharlesHF All American 5543 Posts user info edit post |
^ Pretty sure there's a photoshop opportunity in here somewhere...
![](http://www.ankurb.info/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/bailout-mechanism-south-park-margaritaville.png)
[Edited on August 29, 2011 at 12:49 PM. Reason : ] 8/29/2011 12:48:26 PM
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Sayer now with sarcasm 9841 Posts user info edit post |
CONSULT THE CHART! 8/29/2011 12:54:28 PM
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YOMAMA Suspended 6218 Posts user info edit post |
Quote : | "This next one is the Storm of the Century" |
.... that will turn out to sea. 8/29/2011 2:02:16 PM
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Senez All American 8112 Posts user info edit post |
Quote : | "Not exactly the detailed answer I was hoping for" |
lol
It generally involves examining the upper-level winds conducive to storm development and steering. Given that the recent troughs that pushed Irene eastward ripped a weakness in the Atlantic ridge (which typically "holds" the storms southward), the possibility of this storm strengthening and reaching the east coast is minimal. 8/29/2011 2:10:19 PM
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Senez All American 8112 Posts user info edit post |
Boom!
![](http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/plots/ec850uvs_20.png) 8/29/2011 3:29:32 PM
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JT3bucky All American 23156 Posts user info edit post |
holy crap...
jk just read the post above that.
thats still big.
[Edited on August 29, 2011 at 4:31 PM. Reason : g] 8/29/2011 4:24:49 PM
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sparky Garage Mod 12301 Posts user info edit post |
could get interesting
![](http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201112_ensmodel.gif) 8/29/2011 4:31:04 PM
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JT3bucky All American 23156 Posts user info edit post |
that one near the SC is really odd how it does a 90 degree turn lol 8/29/2011 4:32:39 PM
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jbrick83 All American 23447 Posts user info edit post |
Quote : | "Here's a cool image that shows how much heat Irene yanked out of the ocean:" |
Fuck yeah. Was at the beach yesterday and the water felt wonderful. 8/29/2011 4:34:16 PM
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iceman72 All American 1044 Posts user info edit post |
its like "hai guyz! party at myrtle beach??!!" 8/29/2011 4:34:17 PM
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craptastic All American 6115 Posts user info edit post |
8/29/2011 4:58:16 PM
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Smath74 All American 93277 Posts user info edit post |
Quote : | "What makes the story crazier is that she's in her 60s and he's about 85. They swam through flood waters in a hurricane in the dark to get to safety. They could have drowned." |
that's awesome.
robbing the cradle. 8/29/2011 6:55:50 PM
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The E Man Suspended 15268 Posts user info edit post |
Don't be so certain of the turn being predicted 4 days out. 8/29/2011 7:26:28 PM
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erice85 All American 4549 Posts user info edit post |
any new thoughts on katia? 8/31/2011 8:46:05 PM
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The E Man Suspended 15268 Posts user info edit post |
nah, ask the shippers, they might know. 8/31/2011 8:48:00 PM
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wdprice3 BinaryBuffonary 45908 Posts user info edit post |
I don't see this one hitting the U.S. how often does a hurricane take a straight track and make landfall? it's going to turn north 9/1/2011 9:23:57 AM
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wolfpackgrrr All American 39759 Posts user info edit post |
Maybe it'll pull an Ivan
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/32/Ivan_2004_track.png/800px-Ivan_2004_track.png)
![](images/beatup.gif) 9/1/2011 9:32:53 AM
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ncsuGALxcPaC All American 4160 Posts user info edit post |
Dangit. I am leaving for a cruise to Tortola, Antigua, St Thomas and the Bahamas on Sept 10th. This thing better be a good girl and back the f off. lol 9/1/2011 10:42:22 AM
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TKE-Teg All American 43387 Posts user info edit post |
hopefully it will avoid you, but you did book your trip smack dab in the middle of hurricane season so it's a risk you assumed ![](images/crack.gif) 9/1/2011 10:57:17 AM
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ncsuGALxcPaC All American 4160 Posts user info edit post |
haha yeah we get that a lot... September wedding for the lose. ![](images/biggrin.gif) 9/1/2011 11:01:43 AM
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BobbyDigital Thots and Prayers 41777 Posts user info edit post |
9/1/2011 11:12:07 AM
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Agent 0 All American 5677 Posts user info edit post |
even with the extremely low draft of a PWC, that guy is just asking to hit something, rip out part of the hull and fly over the handlebars 9/1/2011 11:15:52 AM
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BobbyDigital Thots and Prayers 41777 Posts user info edit post |
haha, i watched the whole thing hoping for that exact thing to happen 9/1/2011 11:37:34 AM
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Jeepin4x4 #Pack9 35773 Posts user info edit post |
that was pretty cool, though a fall would have been awesome. He seemed to know what he was doing. 9/1/2011 11:50:12 AM
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Senez All American 8112 Posts user info edit post |
![](http://i51.tinypic.com/2zz6vwh.gif)
9/1/2011 3:24:46 PM
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BDubLS1 All American 10406 Posts user info edit post |
That friday-saturday jump is strange...why does it seem to go backwards?? that extreme of a recurve in 1 day? 9/1/2011 3:57:08 PM
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jbtilley All American 12790 Posts user info edit post |
Every time I revisit this thread it looks like the models push further and further west in that 90 degree turn toward SC pic. 9/1/2011 3:59:16 PM
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Senez All American 8112 Posts user info edit post |
^^There's a strong low to the north of the system you can't see and it races between the Atlantic ridge and a ridge over the CONUS. 9/1/2011 4:56:00 PM
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wdprice3 BinaryBuffonary 45908 Posts user info edit post |
what's up with NC and hurricanes that have names starting with I? quite a few have hit NC and typically done noteworthy damage. It'd be interesting to see if any other state has this occurrence as well. 9/1/2011 5:13:43 PM
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craptastic All American 6115 Posts user info edit post |
This is a completely baseless assumption, but I'm going to say that maybe it has something to do with the time of year that the names typically get to "I".
[Edited on September 1, 2011 at 5:36 PM. Reason : If there is in fact some sort of correlation.] 9/1/2011 5:35:48 PM
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JP All American 16807 Posts user info edit post |
![](http://a1.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc7/s720x720/299119_1982846051222_1245334109_31778818_5232373_n.jpg)
9/2/2011 8:16:07 AM
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Doss2k All American 18474 Posts user info edit post |
Fran and Floyd beg to differ 9/2/2011 8:39:28 AM
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Smath74 All American 93277 Posts user info edit post |
Quote : | "Maybe it'll pull an Ivan" |
Crazy Ivan?
![](http://www.solarnavigator.net/films_movies_actors/actors_films_images/Sean_Connery_The_Hunt_for_Red_October.jpg) 9/2/2011 8:46:32 AM
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Jeepin4x4 #Pack9 35773 Posts user info edit post |
that jetskiing video is a such a theDuke866 move 9/2/2011 9:18:32 AM
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TKE-Teg All American 43387 Posts user info edit post |
^^lol, that also came to mind for me 9/2/2011 9:23:57 AM
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DeltaBeta All American 9417 Posts user info edit post |
Hurricanes always Crazy Ivan to starboard in the bottom half of the hour. 9/2/2011 10:51:33 AM
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TKE-Teg All American 43387 Posts user info edit post |
How did you know he would go to the starboard side?
So it looks there is a lack of evidence to confirm that Irene was a hurricane when she made landfall. None of the weather stations located where the eye made landfall recorded anything over 60 knots (64 knots being hurricane force).
![](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/irene-at-landfall-winds-hatteras-beaufort.jpg)
Something to add to the discussion I suppose
Full article here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/09/01/tropical-storm-irene/
[Edited on September 2, 2011 at 12:44 PM. Reason : k] 9/2/2011 12:23:19 PM
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