There's only one team in all of North Carolina we aren't capable of beating.







And it's Wake.

1/27/2013 10:24:27 PM

Teams in North Carolina, by ranking:

1. Wake (-2)
2. NCSU (0)
3. UNC-Asheville (+2)
T4. Duke (+8)
T4. UNC (+8)

1/27/2013 10:26:49 PM

Quote :

"huh? Did you mean "isn't" ?"

Nope. If he listed our chance at winning each game as you listed (33%, 44%, 12%, & 47%), then it's very simple to determine what he deems our w/l chances to be over the 4 game stretch. The most likely scenario being that we lose all 4 games (.67*.56*.88*.53 = 17.5%)

If you really need, I'll list out the probabilities he proposes for all 16 possible outcomes

1/28/2013 1:07:20 AM

okay, but that's a REALLY silly way to look at this.

There are really five possible outcomes:

0-4

1-3

2-2

3-1

4-0


Going 3-1 with a loss to UVA isn't a materially different result than 3-1 with a loss to Duke.



2-2 is probably our most likely scenario.

1/28/2013 1:09:57 AM

If you're lumping all end results together, then 1-3 is the most likely scenario by a rather wide margin

1/28/2013 1:14:21 AM

ah yes sorry, didn't think about the 12% weighing it down... what's the probability of 2-2 vs 1-3?

1/28/2013 1:19:09 AM

Closer than i originally thought:

0-4: 17.50%
1-3: 40.28%
2-2: 31.77%
3-1: 9.62%
4-0: 0.82%

However, I still contend that 1-3 w/ a Duke win is a completely different result than 1-3 w/ a Clemson win

[Edited on January 28, 2013 at 1:28 AM. Reason : but I get what you're saying in terms of ends v means]

1/28/2013 1:23:10 AM

of note we're now 1 point favorites against clemson after tonight's updates and up to 50% in that game.



2-2 would be a productive outcome for us and help solidify us as a worth NCAA tournament team. Hope we can pull it off. 3-1 seems pretty far fetched so I won't go there.

1/28/2013 1:30:51 AM

1 point favorites against Clemson? how do you get basketball lines on games 2 weeks away?

1/28/2013 1:43:28 AM

referring to kenpom projections not the actual line. They're usually within a point or so anyway unless there are significant injuries

1/28/2013 1:46:44 AM

i don't get the 33% chance against Virginia...if you factor in the 1-13 record after wins over UNC or Duke, I get it, but kenpom bases predictions off games versus an average team on a neutral court, so they don't factor in that stat...I know we're on the road which does what, +1.6% to UVA AdjO and AdjD and -1.6% to our AdjO and AdjD...but I think its ridiculous we've got a higher percentage chance to beat the best team in the ACC (Miami obviously) than a middle of the pack team like Virginia...especially with how well our half court offense and defense was on Saturday

[Edited on January 28, 2013 at 1:55 AM. Reason : but i don't get my sports tips from Larry Sprinkle]

1/28/2013 1:53:57 AM

it's just the way it works. We'll be bigger dogs against virginia than we will against Miami barring some type of injury prior to the miami game

1/28/2013 2:01:20 AM

estimating # of possessions since the NCAA doesn't keep an official stat is also "just the way it works" but i'm skeptical...Miami is obviously a better team than Virginia, regardless of what court you play them on

1/28/2013 2:05:39 AM

then bet us vs virginia. I think we can beat them too, but they defend the basket as well as anyone. It'll be a sloppy game.

And Joe Harris is a bad, bad man. He'll prob rip us.

1/28/2013 2:25:38 AM

i'd take State with anything more than +2.5

1/28/2013 2:28:38 AM

its simple. we are only an elite team when we are running and miami will run with us more than uva who will also take all of the air out of the ball. unc ran with us and see how that worked out at times.

1/28/2013 2:36:58 AM

at the half against UNC, we were up 19 i think, and we had 20 fastbreak points to their zero

so basically, UNC didn't run with us, which surprised me...neither team ran the first 10 or 12 minutes of the game

1/28/2013 2:41:28 AM

UNC ran they just didn't score. Thats the dilemma with this year's team. If you run and suck at running, you get your ass kicked.

I can't believe no one is talking about the refs. They were amazing. First ever unc game with fair officials.

[Edited on January 28, 2013 at 2:45 AM. Reason : they actually called the fouls on JMM]

1/28/2013 2:44:08 AM

Theres no reason to talk about the refs. Thats the whole point. They called a fair game. Made some questionable calls and no calls for both sides but overall were pretty invisible. Thats how it should be. It was super

1/28/2013 3:55:05 AM

during one of my occasional browsings of PP, I saw this interesting tidbit:

we've wplayed in five different jerseys this year

1 - white
2 - red
3 - Jimmy V w/ net
4 - the black
5 - all red (i hope we wear these more)

1/28/2013 9:33:26 AM

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/21618084/nc-state-reversing-course-on-rivals-with-wins-over-duke-unc

1/28/2013 10:56:54 AM

Eh, I thought the calls actually favored us a bit. They let a lot go, which was nice for two teams that like to run and keep the game moving, but I thought we got away with more than a handful of walks.

Also the new jerseys were cool, but can we just stick to pulling out new stuff for special occasions? We don't need to be a slightly less obnoxious Maryland/Oregon.

1/28/2013 11:14:01 AM

Yeah we definitely got the upperhand on the officiating in the UNC game. Not that it made that much of a difference, but it was nice to not have a whistle happy crew like we had for the Wake game.

1/28/2013 11:23:14 AM

Quote :

"Eh, I thought the calls actually favored us a bit. They let a lot go, which was nice for two teams that like to run and keep the game moving, but I thought we got away with more than a handful of walks."

I agree. And CJL gets away with about 3-5 walks a game. The non-calls on his walking has led us to lose the privilege of using Travelin Tyler...IMO.

1/28/2013 11:26:56 AM

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/powerrankings

Moved up to #15 - not sure how that one works

1/28/2013 11:34:31 AM

Click the Voters 1-6, 7-12, and 13-18 links that are next to overall to see who makes up the poll.

Highest ranking: 9 Seth Greenberg
Lowest ranking: 24 Jason McCallum, ESPN researcher

[Edited on January 28, 2013 at 11:43 AM. Reason : info]

1/28/2013 11:37:14 AM

its funny that I didnt notice the refs at all during the UNC game, which is how it should be. We dont need idiots like TV Teddy blowing a whistle, then running halfway down the court to make an overdramatic charge call

1/28/2013 11:40:46 AM

Fouls ended 16 on UNC, 9 on us. The separation didn't come until UNC started fouling us at the end.

[Edited on January 28, 2013 at 11:45 AM. Reason : ,]

1/28/2013 11:44:28 AM

#15 on espn power rankings

1/28/2013 12:01:20 PM

^4 posts up

1/28/2013 12:22:39 PM

19 in coaches poll

1/28/2013 12:56:05 PM

Quote :

"during one of my occasional browsings of PP, I saw this interesting tidbit: we've wplayed in five different jerseys this year 1 - white 2 - red 3 - Jimmy V w/ net 4 - the black 5 - all red (i hope we wear these more)"

What's our record in each jersey?

Also, screw those chance percentages. We SHOULD go 3-1 over the next 4 games and no reason to think we can't get to 4-0 other than Duke will be out for blood.

1/28/2013 1:08:43 PM

Quote :

"its funny that I didnt notice the refs at all during the UNC game, which is how it should be. We dont need idiots like TV Teddy blowing a whistle, then running halfway down the court to make an overdramatic charge call "

And then no-call those same fouls in the last 2 mins of the game

1/28/2013 1:12:35 PM

^^ ok, keep dreamin'

1/28/2013 1:16:23 PM

Miami 15 in the Coaches poll

why the hell don't either ESPN or CBS have the new AP poll yet?

1/28/2013 1:25:19 PM

The AP doesn't have it posted on their site yet

[Edited on January 28, 2013 at 1:31 PM. Reason : there it is, AP #19]

1/28/2013 1:28:30 PM

How off base am I with this semi bias All-ACC teams

First team:
L Brown
E Green
CJ Leslie
R Howell
M Plumlee

Second Team:
Q Cook
S Curry
D Scott
K Kadji
A Len

1/28/2013 4:28:44 PM

i'd put Shane Larkin over Quinn Cook

1/28/2013 4:33:43 PM

Scott or Kadji would have to be first team instead of Howell I think

1/28/2013 4:34:17 PM

Howell and Plumlee are the only ACC players averaging a double double this season. Very hard to keep them off the first team. I also think Howell might be a dark horse for ACC player of the year. He is playing out of his mind right now, and we would be fucked without him

Also, Cook is #2 in asst/game, close behind LoZo. There is a good drop off after Cook. I may have overlooked who the better shooter is.

[Edited on January 28, 2013 at 5:06 PM. Reason : ]

1/28/2013 4:51:24 PM

pretty nifty that we've been ranked the ENTIRE season long

don't think I've ever witnessed a season where we've been ranked for so long...

1/28/2013 5:18:25 PM

My semi biased All ACC Team

1. Vandenberg
2. Vandenberg
3. Vandenberg
4. Vandenberg
5. Vandenberg

Because he spits hot fire.

1/28/2013 5:23:25 PM

^^agreed. i'd like to see us stay ranked the whole season. i do think we dropped out of the coaches poll and were #25 in the AP for one week, but then we were right back in. we've definitely come a long way. hopefully in the next couple seasons we'll be talking about how we've spent the whole year ranked in the top 10 or 15.

1/28/2013 5:26:29 PM

Quote :

"we would be fucked without him"

you could say this about a lot of players on our team.

1/28/2013 5:32:57 PM

we only have 6 players. we'd be fucked without any of them.

but if im dropping one of our forwards off the 1st team it's cj, not richard.

[Edited on January 28, 2013 at 6:01 PM. Reason : htmlol]

1/28/2013 6:01:02 PM

NCSU/UNC Highlight Video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9p_IJMvAgk

1/28/2013 6:06:37 PM

^not bad

1/28/2013 6:31:02 PM

^ Thanks man, appreciate that

1/28/2013 6:41:41 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Q1dsd87Ft0
who is this and why does she have so many awkward youtube videos for espnu?

also, why is lil kev from sunny over there on the left?

1/28/2013 11:30:24 PM

Lunardi's bracketology today has Duke as a 1 (somehow), Miami as a 3, us as a 5, UNC as a 9, and Maryland as a play-in 12

That seems all jacked up except for ours if you ask me.

1/29/2013 12:33:29 PM