^ Why can't you just fucking focus? I was simply pointing out that your glass seems to be half empty while mine is half full, get it?

3/18/2008 1:00:54 AM

More like the cup is completely full for Europeans, and 0.365683 empty for Americans.

Great job GOP! Go get em! Mission accomplished! Get 'er done!!! Let's shoot for .5 dollars to the Euro!

3/18/2008 1:06:25 AM

^^I'm a realist. You, on the other hand, are a partisan escapist, believing in whatever benefits your political leanings at the time.

It's pathetic, and you need to learn to think for yourself.

[Edited on March 18, 2008 at 1:08 AM. Reason : 2]

3/18/2008 1:08:15 AM

^^ and ^ Some younglings flock together, I suppose. I'm not in the GOP, douche bags.

[Edited on March 18, 2008 at 1:17 AM. Reason : .]

3/18/2008 1:16:55 AM

No you're a freethinker like O'Reilly!

3/18/2008 1:22:27 AM

^


Back on topic.

3/18/2008 1:27:29 AM

What's to discuss? The failed economic policies of your party?

3/18/2008 1:32:25 AM

I remember when I pissed hooksaw off enough for him to post like 20 troll pictures. That was a great day...

3/18/2008 5:41:27 AM

Quote :

"What's to discuss? The failed economic policies of your party?"

Explain, in succinct detail, how either party is solely to blame for the current economic situation?

3/18/2008 7:07:13 AM

Amusing more than anything:

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5j2RAttyZxnntuDYUI-Crf9hcbgXA

Quote :

"FRANKFURT (AFP) — The dollar's plunge has made the eurozone the world's biggest economy by one measure and has underscored shifts that are reorienting the 15-nation bloc towards Asia, Russia and oil-rich Gulf states, analysts say. "With the euro now trading around 1.56 against the dollar, the size of its annual output (at market value) has exceeded that of the United States," US investment bank Goldman Sachs estimated last week. "Brief as the development may prove to be, European policy makers will no doubt derive some pride" from the event, it said."

[Edited on March 18, 2008 at 2:28 PM. Reason : /]

3/18/2008 2:28:23 PM

You gotta bold this:

Quote :

""With the euro now trading around 1.56 against the dollar, the size of its annual output (at market value) has exceeded that of the United States," US investment bank Goldman Sachs estimated last week."

::sigh::

Not that this wasn't inevitable. I just thought it'd take longer...

3/18/2008 2:44:14 PM

Couple of quick points...

1) Output per capita is probably a better indicators of well-being of a country's citizens than just total output (though even both are imperfect measures).

2) Simply converting EU output into dollars using the exchange rate is probably a bit misleading. After all, does the US have fewer workers, factories, etc today than it had yesterday when it was still the "largest" economy? No. It's all paper. PPP GDP would be a much fairer way to compare outputs across countries that use different currencies.

3) The falling dollar is actually HELPING America through this recession. This is the second transmission mechanism for monetary policy. As the Fed lowers interest rates, investors (foreign and domestic) start looking around the globe for better rates of return. When they find someplace else to invest, they will sell dollars to buy the currency of the country they wish to invest in. The falling dollar makes America's exports more affordable. As a result, America's export sector expands, creating jobs and income.

4) Who cares how our GDP compares to the EU? I take no pride in it.

Just things to keep in mind.

3/18/2008 3:19:32 PM

quit posting with your logic and reasoning!

3/18/2008 3:27:44 PM

Quote :

"Who cares how our GDP compares to the EU? I take no pride in it. "

Cause part of why we are the most important country in the world derives from us having the largest GDP. Global standing will always be tied to a country's economic level. Why do you think anyone gives a s*** about Japan? It's an ultimately irrelevant country once you take out the fact they're the second-largest GDP in the world at a country level.

The EU passing us is merely a blip as the currencies will correct to a saner level...hopefully. But it is still a somewhat historic mark cause our economy has outperformed theirs for so long.

[Edited on March 18, 2008 at 3:33 PM. Reason : /]

3/18/2008 3:30:31 PM

Something happened in the Dow today, Prawn Star. I'm waiting for you to post about it. . .waiting. . .still waiting. . . .ZZZzzz.

3/18/2008 9:56:31 PM

The dow picked up 430 points based on a 3/4 of a point cut in the Fed's prime interest rate.

Hopefully this keeps banks from relying on the Feds as chief financier, a role they are not designed to do. The flip side is that this could drive inflation further up.

Until the number of forclosures bottoms out, we won't know the full extent of the subprime mess and the corresponding bank liabilities.

[Edited on March 18, 2008 at 11:34 PM. Reason : 2]

3/18/2008 11:33:18 PM

^ Well. . .that post is better than nothing, I guess.

3/18/2008 11:35:43 PM

Now, the next time a bank collapses, are you gonna post it here?

I'm thinking probably not.

3/18/2008 11:57:50 PM

Hooksaw:

HAY GUYS LOOK

>random daily economic news related to the stock market posted CNN analyst style<

3/19/2008 12:18:41 AM

If by CNN analyst you mean "Glenn Beck" then yes.

3/19/2008 12:19:33 AM

HAY I'M AN IDIOT SO I DONT UNDERSTAND

-Glenn Beck every show

3/19/2008 12:20:03 AM

dow down 294

3/19/2008 3:00:57 PM

Pretty good article by Alan Reynolds. With so many news outlets subscribing to the doom and gloom rhetoric, this provides a different perspective

http://www.nypost.com/seven/03152008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/jobs_hysteria_from_the_times_102078.htm

3/19/2008 6:08:04 PM

Seems like a pretty flawed article acutally.

IIRC, the retired, those in school, and anyone not actively seeking employment isn't counted in official unemployment numbers. (He could be using a different set of numbers and I could be completely wrong here)

Also, it doesn't account for the fact that, with rising oil prices and a falling dollar, the purchasing power of those wages is declining.

There is also the decline of overall wealth due to the mortgage crisis. All this guy is saying here is, "well at least most of you can still go to work."

3/20/2008 5:37:25 AM

no no no, you're doing it wrong. you're supposed to blow sunshine up our asses

3/20/2008 7:09:29 AM

^^ Actually, oil prices are falling and the dollar is rising.

Oil, Gold Retreat as Dollar Rises
March 20, 2008 9:20 a.m.

Quote :

"LONDON -- Oil prices fell more than $2 to below $100 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange in London Thursday as further strengthening of the U.S. dollar prompted investors to liquidate crude and other commodity positions. Intraday lows in crude coincided with the dollar hitting intraday highs against the euro, as investors continued to take their cue from moves in the U.S. currency."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120600696799251567.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Stocks set to rebound
March 20, 2008: 6:59 AM EDT

Quote :

"NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks looked poised to rebound early Thursday as oil prices dropped below the $100 a barrel mark and Bear Stearns' largest shareholder pledged to push for a better deal for the battered Wall Street firm.. Less than three hours before the market open, Nasdaq and S&P futures were higher, following a sharp sell-off in major indexes on Wednesday. Oil prices plunged as low as $99.59 in early trading before rebounding slightly."

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/20/markets/stockswatch_ny/

^ Sunshine? No, just realistic optimism, douche bag.

[Edited on March 20, 2008 at 8:30 AM. Reason : .]

3/20/2008 8:29:02 AM

Quote :

"the dollar is rising."

5 days:


3 months:


1 year:


2 year:


5 years:

Quote :

"oil prices are falling"

1 year (futures):


[Edited on March 20, 2008 at 8:52 AM. Reason : ]

3/20/2008 8:46:23 AM

^^ saying anything about the dollar 'rising' .01% on a single day in time means absolutely NOTHING.

3/20/2008 8:54:48 AM

^^ and ^ Except that it's true. Tell it to the Wall Street Journal, CNN, and so on.

V Yeah, I know that--but they don't. And they're allergic to facts--doesn't fit the narrative, you know?

[Edited on March 20, 2008 at 9:00 AM. Reason : .]

3/20/2008 8:58:27 AM

A falling dollar is NOT a bad thing.
The sooner people realize that, the better this thread will be.

3/20/2008 8:59:19 AM

this is just the US's way of getting back at the chinks for devaluing their currency by up to 40 percent

3/20/2008 9:01:56 AM

^^ Of course not. But to say that 'the dollar is rising' and 'oil is falling' after one week of movement is somewhat disingenuous.

3/20/2008 9:05:42 AM

^ It simply depends on the period.

3/20/2008 9:08:00 AM

Quote :

"It simply depends on the period."

No fucking shit.

Too bad a period of one week doesn't offset years of movement in the other direction.

3/20/2008 9:10:59 AM

^ The journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step.

3/20/2008 9:14:56 AM

Quote :

"The journey of a thousand milesseveral years begins with the first stepfew months."

Thanks, but I'll wait for movement that lasts more than a few days before I start jerking off about the economy.

3/20/2008 9:21:52 AM

So if you're going to insinuate that this is a long-term trend in the upward direction then please provide proof.

3/20/2008 9:24:41 AM

^ The "proof" is in the crystal ball--gaze deeply, child.

3/20/2008 11:05:10 AM

So, you're admitting that the few days of favorable economic news you eagerly posted doesn't really mean much?

3/20/2008 11:42:17 AM

^ Um. . .it means that nobody can accurately predict the future.

3/20/2008 11:43:53 AM

You, sir, are truly a wealth of wisdom.

3/20/2008 11:49:01 AM

Quote :

" Seems like a pretty flawed article acutally. IIRC, the retired, those in school, and anyone not actively seeking employment isn't counted in official unemployment numbers. (He could be using a different set of numbers and I could be completely wrong here) Also, it doesn't account for the fact that, with rising oil prices and a falling dollar, the purchasing power of those wages is declining. There is also the decline of overall wealth due to the mortgage crisis. All this guy is saying here is, "well at least most of you can still go to work.""

Explain how this is relevant to the author's conclusions?

3/20/2008 5:33:28 PM

^

What peices like the one Hunt referenced ignore is that the reason the Times and other outlets are so gloomy is because the economists and financiers they interview are so gloomy.

The reasons for out gloom are probably a little bit more nuanced than you can get to into the pages of the Times so they reach for something that looks close - like a string of jobs losses.

To me, for example, the outlook seems no worse now than it did in Dec. and perhaps slightly better. The driving force then and now for my pessimism was the collapse of capital markets and what seemed to be the ever present possibility of global financial meltdown.

However, giving the hard facts behind why thats true get a little technical. We have to get into derivatives and swap spreads and other issues. So the Times says "look we're losing jobs - its bad"

The logic is not spot on but it conveys the right message.

3/21/2008 1:19:37 PM

^

Quote :

"So the Times says 'look we're losing jobs - its bad and it's Bush's fault'"

Fixed.

3/21/2008 1:38:08 PM

^^I agree. However, my interpretation of the article was that the author was more getting at the idea that the press is perhaps overstating the gloom as represented by the recent jobs data, pointing to the headline statistics without the due diligence of reporting the underlying data. While it can be extrapolated from the jobs data that we are headed or possibly in a recession, it can not yet be concluded. The facts are very much in favor of recession, but recession is still not conclusive. Most news sources (save the WSJ among others) seem to have taken as fact that we are in a recession and reported the data accordingly.

[Edited on March 21, 2008 at 1:59 PM. Reason : .]

[Edited on March 21, 2008 at 2:00 PM. Reason : .]

3/21/2008 1:58:29 PM

so the impressive economy is now officially in an impressive recession.

how impressive.

now please excuse me while I go buy a lot of consumer items and then maybe masturbate for a bit.

3/21/2008 2:01:31 PM

^^ and ^ THERE HAS TO BE TWO CONSECUTIVE QUARTERS OF FLAT OR NEGATIVE GROWTH IN GDP FOR A RECESSION TO EXIST!!!1 THIS IS TAUGHT EVERY DAY IN BUSINESS SCHOOLS AND OTHER RELEVANT DISCIPLINES ACROSS THE COUNTRY!!!1

KNOW IT, LEARN IT, LIVE IT!!!1

^ PS: As if you needed an excuse to masturbate.

[Edited on March 21, 2008 at 2:15 PM. Reason : .]

3/21/2008 2:14:24 PM

Two consecutive quarters is actually a simplified rule-of-thumb used mostly by the press. The NBER defines recession as "...a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."

3/21/2008 3:31:09 PM

no, no, no, no, no. that just won't do.

hooksaw and pals need everything painted in black and white ideal absolutes. they can't handle the fuzzy gray shades of real world problems.

3/21/2008 3:57:04 PM

Quote :

"Americans on economy: This hurts Nationwide poll locates sore spots as consumers are knocked around by inflation and gas prices. Consumers hunker down but feel optimistic about future. A recent CNN poll shows consumers are cutting back on spending due to inflation and high gas prices. But they are hopeful that the slowdown will turn around soon. Issue #1 NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Some economists say the United States is not in a recession, but don't tell that to the majority of American consumers. A national CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released this week found that the recent economic downturn has taken its toll. Americans are driving less and even cutting back on necessities such as food and medicine. The financial strains have led a vast majority of people to believe that the U.S. economy has entered a recession. "This economic downturn will be relatively mild according to the numbers," said Wachovia economist Mark Vitner. "But the pain and discomfort for the consumer will be the most severe since 1991, and possibly since 1981 to 1982." But there is some hope for the future, as a majority of those surveyed feel that the economy will rebound in 2009. Majority think U.S. economy is in a recession. Americans think the economy is now in a recession and the number who feel that way continues to grow. Of the more than 1,000 adult Americans conducted March 14-16 , 74% said they believe the nation is now in a recession. That figure rose from 66% in February and 61% in January. Economists' definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, and though growth was sluggish in the last quarter - 0.6% - the U.S. economy has not yet shown one quarter of retraction. But to the average American, times are still tough. "What they're describing is different from a recession - they're giving a common sense definition of a recession," said Wachovia economist Mark Vitner. "They're saying that these are tough economic times, and from that perspective they're absolutely right." Inflation is top concern. Most Americans think times are tough because they are feeling the pinch from rising prices. The survey showed that 65% said they are "very concerned" about inflation, and 26% said they are "somewhat concerned." Unemployment concerns also loom large, with 59% saying they are "very concerned" and 27% saying they are "somewhat concerned" about job losses. According to the Department of Labor, the United States has already lost 85,000 jobs so far in 2008, with February's net job report showing the worst loss in nearly five years. American's concerns framed the issue that faced the Federal Reserve, which attempted to balance the threat of recession against rising inflation in its 3/4 percentage point cut of its key interest rate Tuesday. The central bank cuts rates in order to boost the economy and, in this round, to stave off a recession. But lower interest rates can also weaken the dollar, sending inflation higher. Though the Fed decided to cut rates further, it noted that "uncertainty about the inflation outlook has increased," in a statement following the rate cuts Tuesday. But the central bank said it will closely monitor inflation in the future. "The Fed is definitely concerned, because [inflation] issues impact consumers," said Wachovia economist Sam Bullard. Cash strapped, and driving less. Escalating prices - specifically rising gas prices - have taken their toll on Americans, causing them to drive less. Seventy-two percent of respondents said recent price increases in gasoline have caused financial hardship for them or their households. "For some time we've been trying to determine the breaking point for when gas prices take their toll on the consumer," said John Kilduff, an energy analyst at the trading firm MF Global. "It appears we've found that point." Rising fuel prices have caused most Americans to cut back on their driving. Of the over 1,000 American adults surveyed in the poll conducted March 14-16, 64% said they have made some changes to their driving behavior as a result of higher gas prices, with 19% saying they have cut back on driving enough to have a major effect on their daily lives. And 5% say they have stopped driving altogether. Financial pain hits close to home. The slumping economy is not only hurting Americans at the pump, but it's causing pain where it hurts the most: daily necessities like food and drugs. Thirty percent of respondents are trimming their spending on food and medicine and that 57% are worried they will have to cut back soon. Nearly half said they have cut back on how much heating or electricity they use in their homes, and 53% are concerned that they will have to trim spending on heating in the future. "Consumers are definitely feeling a pinch on rising prices of staple products like food," said Wachovia economist Adam York. "There are some consumers that are having some real trouble in this environment." Typically in an economic downturn, consumers have shifted their spending from discretionary items like electronics and leisure activities in order to continue paying for food and drugs. But continually escalating prices may have left consumers with little left to cut. A recent Commerce Department report shows that consumers' food and beverage spending dropped 0.2% in February from the previous month and grocery store sales fell 0.3%. "Instead of buying steak, they're buying chicken," said York. "People are buying generics and reducing spending by shifting to cheaper alternatives." Confident in 2009 turnaround. Though times are tough now, Americans believe the economy will bounce back by next year. The poll showed 60% of respondents think economic conditions in the United States will be "good" next year, as opposed to the 75% who think the economic situation is "poor" now. "Most people realize that the economy has cycles of ups and downs," said Bullard. "Fortunately, the last two recessions were some of the shortest on record, so in 2009 we should be pulling up out of this." Americans agree with the economists. Eighty-three percent said they are "confident" that they will be able to maintain their standards of living next year, and 85% are "confident" they will keep their jobs over the next six months. Consumers also showed faith that they would be able to pay off their future debts, with 90% of respondents demonstrating confidence they would be able to meet their monthly mortgage payments for the duration of the mortgage. Nearly as many Americans - 83% - said they could pay off college loans, car payments, and credit cards in the future. The average amount of credit card debt of those polled was $4,000. "The Fed's rate cuts will start to take their toll later this year, and the economy should bounce back by the end of 2008," Bullard said"

3/22/2008 10:13:41 AM