Hope I didnt miss the 22.50 cisco trade ... Chances are the market will push back to a bottom some more ... but I guess You never know for sure.

Time to submit a limit order, and re-amp my scottrade portfolio with some cash.

1/23/2008 6:01:58 PM

is it time to start buying on margin?

1/23/2008 7:41:26 PM

I am trying to decide if I should go into a money market account with 5ish interest rate(have to lock in a year or 1% penality) or just keep it in the mutual fund(medium risk). The bad thing is I just put it in a year ago so there is not much room before the principal gets hit. That money market account, after a year, I can move it whenever and add to it and still be able to move it. I doubt I will need the money for 5 years(when i decide to buy a house, I might not even need it for it). I dont know, seems hard for me to think 20 years from now instead of right now.


One of my friends told me that it is play money right now, only time you really care is when you cash out. My Fin advisor thinks I should move that mutual fund into the money market to make myself more "comfortable" and I need to call him if I want to do this. What should I do?

I also got a Roth(started that like 4 years ago) and will do nothing with that, and I got a 401k at work.

1/23/2008 8:00:18 PM

It looks like the New York insurance commission has a plan to bailout Ambac and MBIA. Since they were the straw that broke the camels back it makes sense to have a big rally.

1/23/2008 8:27:10 PM

Quote :

"is it time to start buying on margin?"

if you do this make sure you do it on a tight stop

1/23/2008 10:17:05 PM

MARGIN, MONEY YOU DON'T HAVE

1/24/2008 3:39:45 AM

Rogue trader at SocGen...$7.14b...shouldn't affect the markets too much though...

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/24/news/international/soc_gen.ap/index.htm?cnn=yes

Quote :

"Societe Generale slammed by $7B fraud French bank to seek $8 billion in new capital after it discovers trader's fraud, takes subprime-related writedown. PARIS (AP) -- French bank Societe Generale said Thursday it has uncovered a $7.14 billion fraud - one of history's biggest - by a single futures trader who fooled investors and overstepped his authority. The fraud destabilized a major bank already exposed to the subprime crisis. France's second- largest bank by market value said it would be forced to seek $8.02 billion in new capital. Trading in Societe Generale's shares, which have lost nearly half their value over the past six months, was suspended on the Paris bourse. It was unclear when trading would resume. The bank said it detected the fraud at its French markets division the weekend of Jan. 19-20. In a statement announcing the discovery, it called the fraud "exceptional in its size and nature." It said a trader at the futures desk had misled investors in 2007 and 2008 through a "scheme of elaborate fictitious transactions." The trader, who was not named, used his knowledge of the group's security systems to conceal his fraudulent positions, a statement from the bank said. The individual confessed to the fraud, the bank said, and was being dismissed. His supervisors were to leave the group. Chief Executive Daniel Bouton offered his resignation, but the board rejected it. An analysis confirmed the "isolated and exceptional nature" of the fraud, the bank said. The fraud appeared to be the largest ever by a single trader. If confirmed, it would far outstrip the Nick Leeson trading scandal in 1995 that bankrupted British bank Barings. Barings collapsed after Leeson, the bank's Singapore general manager of futures trading, lost $1.38 billion on Asian futures markets, wiping out the bank's cash reserves. The company had been in business for more than 230 years. The fraud was not as big as the 1991 scandal that led to the demise of the Bank of Credit and Commerce International. Claims by depositors and creditors exceeded $10 billion at the time. International bank regulators seized BCCI, which had headquarters in Luxembourg, London and the Cayman Islands, on July 5, 1991. They acted on auditors' reports that described huge losses from illegal loans to corporate insiders and from trading transactions. At Societe Generale, the fraud announcement came on the back of subprime-related difficulties. Subprime writedowns linked to the crisis in financial markets amounted to $2.99 billion, Societe Generale said. As a result, the bank is planning a capital hike in the "following weeks." The write-down and losses will lead the company to post a net profit of $874 million to $1.16 billion for all of 2007, the Paris-based bank said. The Bank of France said it was immediately informed of the fraud and was investigating. The French market regulator, the AMF, said it had no comment. France's Banking Federation also declined to comment. Shares of SocGen closed down 4.1 percent at €79.08 - equivalent to $115.25 - on Wednesday. Full-year results will be announced Feb. 21. "

1/24/2008 6:39:11 AM

got my buy in for NITE at 15.85

looking to unload some other stuff into this bounce

wow, that shit reversed before i could get in here and edit post...

sold a little bit of RIMM

[Edited on January 24, 2008 at 10:21 AM. Reason : ]

1/24/2008 10:07:44 AM

Here's a bit by George Soros. He is one of my favourite people, and while i've never met him i know him through one degree of separation. He is right most of the time. The article is a summary of what we already know, but its interesting to have him say its the worst crisis in 60 years, as well as the following:

Quote :

"Although a recession in the developed world is now more or less inevitable, China, India and some of the oil-producing countries are in a very strong countertrend. So, the current financial crisis is less likely to cause a global recession than a radical realignment of the global economy, with a relative decline of the US and the rise of China and other countries in the developing world. The danger is that the resulting political tensions, including US protectionism, may disrupt the global economy and plunge the world into recession or worse."

IMO, the contertrend of the current oil-producing countries won't be as strong, and will be much more temporary than those of China and India.


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/24f73610-c91e-11dc-9807-000077b07658.html

1/24/2008 10:42:20 AM

do you see the possibility of large foreign investing firms or collectives (specifically middle eastern) buying up large quantities of shares or full scale buyouts of long held US based companies due to the current market prices and decreased dollar value?

like the rumors for dow chemicals last year?

(as a backstory, a middle eastern based group was rumored to buy out the company for $x/share, but I dont think it ended up happening..)

Seems like the plucking is ripe right now for such events to occur, and given the right targets for buyouts, it could bring a great change to world economic dynamics.

i dunno, just a little consipracy theory in the back of my head.

1/24/2008 10:54:41 AM

will they buyout a bunch of US companies? yes, definitely.

it'll be like the Japanese buying a bunch of stuff in the US in the 80s. it turned out to be a win-win.

in kindergarten i learned the best way to destroy an enemy was to make him your friend. in college i read Friedman's Golden Arches theory to peace: when people are trading with each other, they are not fighting. pretty much the same thing.

what we will witness is a multidecade to century long emergence of 2 new superpowers, and the US will finally realize the wisdom of not wanting to be a hyperpower. being a hyperpower is a pain in the ass (re Amy Chua's Day of Empire: How Hyperpowers Rise to Global Dominance--and Why They Fall )

is it some grand conspiracy? i don't believe in grand conspiracies, just tendencies in human nature. i also tend to believe that culture is largely a derivative of biological imperative. i gives me hope for my great grandchildren that the 2 new emerging superpowers aren't known for being looters and plunderers.

however, will they act like imperialists during their rise? in terms of resource acquisition, yes. the commodities supercycle is far from over. note: this doesn't mean that buying XLB will make you rich within a year.

this is probably too philosophical for this thread. i just don't think you have to worry about any grand conspiracy, especially not from those blokes in the desert - their free gift from the carboniferous era is about to run out.

in terms of trading, when you buy INP and FXI, make sure you're taking gains along the way. for example, i sold half my INP at 117. i'm glad i did. i'm considering getting back in here in the 80s. the basics of trading still apply. noone went broke by taking profits. also, when you've taken those profits, you have to resist the urge to replace those bets right away. you have to step back and assess how much you want to be at risk, and how you will manage to surf the next wave.

1/24/2008 11:41:14 AM

ugh my 401k is down 8.4% since the year started

1/24/2008 11:52:42 AM

Personal Rate of Return from 01/01/2008 to 01/23/2008 is -10.2%

1/24/2008 12:10:57 PM

Quote :

"it'll be like the Japanese buying a bunch of stuff in the US in the 80s. it turned out to be a win-win."

Indeed like the Japanese experience I expect that this will turn out to be a win-lose. That is we win and they lose. There is a strong tendency for foreign buyers to be attracted to marquee properties whose time has past. Nothing says that stronger that the raw deal Mitsubishi Bank got when they bought Rockefeller Center.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=990CE1DB113FF931A2575AC0A963958260

1/24/2008 12:30:50 PM

^ interesting. i wonder if TTM's purchase of Jaguar will follow suit.


other commentary on the beginning of the end of the era of extreme leverage:

http://tinyurl.com/2lzjsr

1/24/2008 1:31:15 PM

Hmmmm. I had BIDU put to me at $300 and had been planning on selling Feb calls at $300. It jumped back today and now I don't know what to do....

1/24/2008 2:41:02 PM

i don't know either. BIDU's rewarded me on the long side since its IPO. i'm just staying away from it now - have been for months. its one of those names that could snap back hard, or have the bottom fall out.

1/24/2008 3:53:47 PM

Yeah, that's what has me spooked. There's so much speculation on BIDU and so much anxiety about the market that it could be very volatile.

I was looking at the option chain and thought about selling calls at 320 and buying puts at 280, but haven't figured out a clear strategy on it yet. I could just sell $310 calls for next january at $100+ a share and feel pretty good about life.

1/24/2008 4:15:07 PM

A week ago I walked into _________ investment banking corporation, talking to people, asking them if they liked their jobs. I eventually made my way up the chain and got to talk with the Vice pres. He's taking me out to dinner this week to talk about the business and see where he could maybe fit me in to get started.

I graduated with a degree in math, but know little to nothing about being a stock broker. What should I learn in the next few days so that I don't embarrass myself at dinner. I understand that it will take years of experience to catch up to someone who's studied this in college and has been playing around with their personal finances for years, but I just want to know enough to show that I have the motivation to work for them. Thanks

1/24/2008 4:38:04 PM

MSFT knocked the cover off the ball, gaps higher afterhours

1/24/2008 6:00:38 PM

^^you can probably catch up fairly quickly if you're good at math...

you should figure out what you're doing first...there's tons of different roles

and FYI, VPs in iBanking aren't that high up there (Ibanking hierarchy MD > Director> VP> AVP> Associate > Analyst)

1/24/2008 7:48:54 PM

how bout RIMM up 7 today

[Edited on January 24, 2008 at 8:03 PM. Reason : .]

1/24/2008 8:01:20 PM

I recovered 2.62% today.

With a current net loss since 1/1/2008 down to 8%

1/24/2008 8:53:44 PM

hahaha

at most banks you can be a VP after about 3 years

1/24/2008 9:10:11 PM

not sure about that...but like i said, it's not that high up (probably 6-10 yrs exp, makes about $100-125k in raleigh, $175-200k in ny)

1/24/2008 9:19:47 PM

My little sis was an AVP at BoA after 2 years... and she's a software engineer.

either way, the banking industry is excellent at making every job title seem way more important than it is.

1/24/2008 9:23:48 PM

so many VP's

reminds me of Teldar Paper

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaKkuJVy2YA

1/24/2008 11:34:41 PM

it really depends on what function at an investment bank.

1/24/2008 11:37:12 PM

btw, if your interview is anything like this, plz let us know

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvICN8DNMpY

1/24/2008 11:39:00 PM

damn i feel for you on the bidu puts... i got rid of mine yuk, would of been a nice call play today. i bet those cheap ass calls made some people big bucks

1/25/2008 4:03:47 AM

long dated calls on largely down days can pay off quick

Asia recovering well right now...

1/25/2008 4:12:28 AM

im looking for some good foreign equities options for my 401k... any opinions ppl? looking at RERFX & FDIVX right now..

1/27/2008 12:35:53 PM

look at brazil. still a LOT of room for growth. i'd go with petroleo brasileiro

[Edited on January 27, 2008 at 12:44 PM. Reason : .]

1/27/2008 12:44:50 PM

yea im looking for some long term mutual fund options

1/27/2008 12:48:26 PM

EWZ is the Barzil ETF

i also like INP (India) and RSX (Russia)

however you have to watch for volatility, and look out for if at all and how much the US recession will impact those countries.

1/27/2008 4:38:43 PM

bovespa baby

1/27/2008 5:09:34 PM

lol, i'm sure his 401k offers Brazilian ETF's

Diversified Int'l has a pretty strong track record, but a lot of experts show that top performing funds don't necessairly fair any better than other funds in the future.

A lot of times fund managers will tend to hug an index once they have an established track record because it practically guarantees their long term fund performance will stick out compared to similar ones.

1/27/2008 7:57:15 PM

i'm gonna put some future payroll deductions in RERFX & RWIFX... dunno how they're gonna perform short-term, but hopefully fairly profitable long term.. let me know if anyone has any opinions on these

1/27/2008 9:03:54 PM

the best day to invest was yesterday.

the next best day is today.


That's my opinion.

1/27/2008 9:50:33 PM

you may be onto something in terms of investing. trading however is different -- timing is tough, even for the pros.

for a couple of months atleast, i'd be inclined to sell into rallies and rotate into defensive stuff - healthcare and consumer staples, and slow moving stuff with dividends.





[Edited on January 28, 2008 at 12:05 PM. Reason : asdfsdfasfas]

1/28/2008 11:47:41 AM

What online brokerage do you guys think is best? I've never done any single stock buying (only mutual fund/retirement stuff), but there is a stock I'd like to buy. I don't plan on trading much so inactivity fees and shit like that will suck for me.

Any suggestions - Fidelity, etrade, ameritrade??

1/28/2008 2:22:56 PM

I use scottrade now who I like. $7 trade

1/28/2008 2:34:30 PM

^ same

1/28/2008 2:39:45 PM

^^ same

1/28/2008 3:20:06 PM

I'm thinking about picking up some ABX since gold has been on such a run lately. Also they have a huge new pit mine at Pascua Lama in S America that is planned to become operation next year.

1/28/2008 3:23:53 PM

VMW getting kilt afterhours...that is bad for me

1/28/2008 5:07:05 PM

^5, ^4, and ^^^

Thank for the feedback - I'll check into Scottrade. Any shitty fees that you don't like about them?

1/28/2008 6:19:54 PM

Nah. I originally switched to them b/c of their lack of inactivity fees.

1/28/2008 6:28:43 PM

Quote :

"VMW getting kilt afterhours...that is bad for me"

You and me both. Shit this is terrible!

1/28/2008 6:37:23 PM

sales and profits up, but wall street's unrealistic expectations strike again on VMW

[Edited on January 28, 2008 at 7:00 PM. Reason : .]

1/28/2008 7:00:25 PM