i guess i could've held BAC a little longer - oh well - i wanted to lock in that 20% - shit's volatile you know.

here's what compelled me on POT:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=axUYO6WUYVeg&refer=home


i didn't pick up PBR because i already have some exposure through EWZ, and have some EPL as well

2/26/2009 10:03:43 AM

Quote :

"You mean negative inflation is going to get nasty?"

Don't be stupid. Everyone knows we are headed for nasty inflation. Probably stagflation to boot.

It's funny all these people confusing credit contraction and demand falling off a cliff for deflation.

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Inflation was 0.8% in January despite the fact that GDP was -5%. If that doesn't scare the shit out of you I don't know what will.

My question stands, what is the best way to play inflation?

And no I hate real estate right now, it still has much farther to fall. Real estate can only grow as a percentage of income which will continue to fall (government bastardization excluded of course)

2/26/2009 10:08:03 PM

Natural resources

2/26/2009 11:41:37 PM

God fucking damnit. I have been wanting to switch from scottrade to tradeking and they finally deactivated the account yesterday to do the transfer. Before that, I was looking to buy some BAC puts (CIT puts as well but there aren't much in the way of options trading since the price is so low) because I knew this small little rally couldn't last, and I'll be damned if they both aren't down 20% pre market on this news. The puts will move 40-50% on this news.

Friday of a bad week and terrible news, this might be a 4-5% day.

2/27/2009 8:42:58 AM

Quote :

"Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Inflation was 0.8% in January despite the fact that GDP was -5%. If that doesn't scare the shit out of you I don't know what will."

It was .3% seasonally adjusted, I'm not sure where you get your numbers. Take food and energy out and it was .2%.

2/27/2009 8:49:09 AM

JUST MADE 10% IN 7 MINUTES ON FAS ALL IN WOOHOO

2/27/2009 9:37:23 AM

Quote :

"credit contraction and demand falling off a cliff for deflation"

those are causes of deflation. low credit (velocity of money) and low desire to acquire assets (or even goods and services) are what cause deflation.

2/27/2009 10:27:53 AM

DIG is looking good right now, probably pick some up on Monday if it's still on sale

2/27/2009 8:51:54 PM

soon enough i may buy some BGU or SSO

2/27/2009 9:18:05 PM

Quote :

"Inflation is about to get nasty, I'm not sure how to play inflation the best.... any ideas?"

how about shorting Treasuries? I bought some TBT a last week under 44.50 and it's up over 48 now

2/28/2009 1:36:33 PM

I've been monitoring TBT for awhile. I'm scared it's too vulnerable to federal reserve manipulation though.... I don't want to be on the wrong side of the Fed in a trade...

3/1/2009 12:18:32 PM

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3650/3319267637_4d5b3897e0_o.png

[Edited on March 1, 2009 at 2:28 PM. Reason : .]

3/1/2009 2:28:24 PM

here's what i'm thinking after listening to all the talking heads on the tube:

-> inflation is real, permanent, and on its way

--> if the fed prints a ton of cash, then someone (the banks) buries the money in the ground, there is no inflation. the cash has to be unburied and put into circulation for inflation to take place

---> therefore the reflation of currently depreciating assets (as well as of the cost of goods and services) will occur as the velocity of the money through the economy increases

----> and given the end of the era of hyper-leverage, it seems as if the banks will be a lot more cautious in increasing the velocity of money through the economy

-----> it therefore seems that inflation while inevitable, won't be here in a hurry; and the course of events leading up to the era of high inflation will be accompanied by atleast a nominal amount of economic growth

3/1/2009 7:09:20 PM

Basically, it is waaayyy too early in the game to be worried about inflation. Modest amounts of deflation is already here and there is a modest amount of fear that it will turn into pesky amounts of deflation.

3/1/2009 9:18:05 PM

financials set to open way low. may day trade some FAS. thinking about buying pre-market at 4.50, but i'm a little worried about doing that.

3/2/2009 9:20:18 AM

i'm pretty upset at myself. Last week was just an overall bad week for me and i could have performed much better. I made a call on monday that i thought was good but stopped out on it early for a 3% loss, sadly, it went up shortly there after.

Then I almost bought SKF at 146. its now (pre-market) in the 180's. Instead I made another 'safe' play and if today sticks with the pre-market trend i'll be down heavy.

oh and then there were the 55cent/share/contract option puts at $5 i mulled on wednesday for BAC. they were over 1.45/s/c when i last checked.



[Edited on March 2, 2009 at 9:30 AM. Reason : ./]

3/2/2009 9:28:22 AM

below 7000 dow. uh oh.

[Edited on March 2, 2009 at 9:53 AM. Reason : s]

3/2/2009 9:52:46 AM

its the snows fault right?

3/2/2009 9:58:47 AM

yes.

but perhaps a different kind of snow, commonly found in the noses of wealthy people.

3/2/2009 10:10:26 AM

^ well done, sir.

3/2/2009 10:12:28 AM

what is the inverse of SSO again?

3/2/2009 11:01:15 AM

My HBC Puts are currently $13.20. bought them at $6.90. Unfortunately I got scared and sold 3/5 of them last friday but it's paid for now.

Edit: Just sold them all for $13.20.

[Edited on March 2, 2009 at 11:23 AM. Reason : cha-ching]

3/2/2009 11:14:37 AM

SDS

^ Yeah, frustrating moving early on a position and getting spooked when it moves against you briefly.



[Edited on March 2, 2009 at 11:17 AM. Reason : .]

3/2/2009 11:15:04 AM

I'm going long on canned goods and rice, is there a symbol for that?

3/2/2009 11:26:46 AM

Quote :

"Fail Boat Veteran 320 Posts user info edit post Is Best Buy (BBY) a good short here http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:BBY It seems like over the past quarter, people that might would have normally shopped here would be over at Circuit City looking for deals. Coupled with an overall demand slump, BBY surely can't fare to well in this past quarter. I have no idea what estimates are and what is priced in this thing, but just looking at the Nov 20 lows and where it sits now and considering the market, how can the thing go higher from here? 2/24/2009 10:48:13 AM Fail Boat Veteran 320 Posts user info edit post In on a bit of a gamble. Bought 2 April 25s puts for 1.95. Hopefully the earnings on March 26 will really punish the stock if it doesn't happen sooner before the time decay kills these puts. 2/24/2009 12:31:37 PM"

I think I am going to ultimately be right, but I was early. I could have gotten these puts late last week for 1.30. However, I was doing some researching last night and found that BBY is George Soros' 5th largest holding. That's a heck of a vote of confidence.

3/2/2009 11:36:55 AM

^^, check out the rogers commodities ETF's

3/2/2009 11:38:04 AM

holy damn GE pushing 7.5

3/2/2009 11:46:01 AM

Is anybody familiar with Karl Denninger? Is he a nut?

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

He's saying we could lose another 50%

3/2/2009 11:47:14 AM

bought FAS at 4.28 - thinking about dumping it already hehe. just got 1k shares this time.

3/2/2009 11:57:58 AM

i dont see it going up

3/2/2009 11:58:26 AM

part of me wants to average down and sell at the end of the day, but i have a scary feeling right now that i really haven't had with FAS on my other trades. i'm still way way way up so it's not a big deal to lose a couple hundred right now.

3/2/2009 12:06:43 PM

Quote :

"Is anybody familiar with Karl Denninger? Is he a nut? http://market-ticker.denninger.net/ He's saying we could lose another 50%"

agentlion and I have been subscribed to his RSS feed for a couple months now and he's been calling for financial armageddon about once or twice a week during that time period. Generally, I think he is right that this economy isn't going to move until the government stops putting the tax payer on the hook for failed business models, however, he seems to earnestly think at some point soon there is going to be some event that triggers massive capitulation, be it a wrong statement from an official, a big player is going to go bust (despite government guarantees), or some silent run by foreign nationals will happen.

If you want a similar economic viewpoint, but without all the hysteria, I have been following this guy for awhile too

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

3/2/2009 12:07:39 PM

EPIC

BLOOD ON

THE STREETS

3/2/2009 12:17:40 PM

PTM @ 13.07

3/2/2009 1:14:08 PM

I'm feelin the last hour might be nasty and we'll tack on another 1% to finish the day.

3/2/2009 3:03:49 PM

Quote :

"Is anybody familiar with Karl Denninger? Is he a nut?"

I wouldnt call him a nut, but he is called a 'perma-bear'. 95% of the time, he is wrong, but when he is right, he looks like a genius. He has been/always is/gloomy. Even in the best of times. People throw stones at him. I think that makes him extra gloomy when the market goes through a down cycle, as he tries to kick as many of those stones as he received back.

3/2/2009 3:47:26 PM

^ the "problem" with Denninger is that a lot of his arguments are fundamentally sound and mathematically impossible to argue with. A lot of what he says may be true, but we won't actually know it until wall street and the gov't cut through all the bullshit, fraud and lying. As long as we can sustain the fraud, though, many of his predictions will not come true.

3/2/2009 4:10:15 PM

Quote :

" I wouldnt call him a nut, but he is called a 'perma-bear'. 95% of the time, he is wrong, but when he is right, he looks like a genius. He has been/always is/gloomy."

How long have you been following him? His Market Ticker has only be running since early 07, by then, many people with a little bit of forward thinking were seeing the housing crash coming. If this is your reference, I'd hardly label him a perma-bear. However, I have just done some looking to see if he is on record with other predictions, and a couple I have stumbled on

From Dec 05

Quote :

"he Dow was hurt badly by GM’s “falling apart”, which can be traced directly to organized labor and its incessant demand for entitlements. There is a lesson here if we care to learn it; what has befallen GM is about to befall the entire nation. 2006 marks the start of the boomer generation’s “official” move into being “senior citizens”. Our entitlement mentality in this country – Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid – is going to bankrupt us 30 years down the road unless we make radical changes."

Of course, if you think about the home ATM and the "I want it and want it now damnit" mentality as an entitlement then his prediction comes home a bit sooner.

And this:

Quote :

"Energy. Katrina and Rita taught us something, which we immediately forgot. Wait a month until the heating bills start showing up in earnest – we’ll collectively “remember” again. But we still refuse to address this problem, and five years from now, if we don’t take care of this, we’ll find ourselves in an economic Depression not seen since the 1930s."

I know you replied to my Oil Drum posting about energy pushing us over the edge and I think you somewhat disagreed. However, it can't be denied that most recessions were preceded by a spike in energy prices. I haven't really seen much talk about it but I personally (intuitively?) believe the skyrocketing cost of gas being the tipping point for this whole thing.

Ahhhhh, in Feb 07, he pointed out in this post
http://musings.denninger.net/archives/2007/02.html
about the subprime problem, but then goes on to say

Quote :

" But does this foretell a recession, which would be a good reason for a bear market - and a 20% decline in US Stock Prices? I don't see it. "

Ummm...oops. So, no, he hasn't been a perma-bear.

[Edited on March 2, 2009 at 4:41 PM. Reason : .]

3/2/2009 4:37:46 PM

Quote :

"How long have you been following him? His Market Ticker has only be running since early 07, by then, many people with a little bit of forward thinking were seeing the housing crash coming. If this is your reference, I'd hardly label him a perma-bear. However, I have just done some looking to see if he is on record with other predictions, and a couple I have stumbled on"

All I can tell you is that I know the name, and that hes almost always bearish. I researched him probably a year ago, when I thought his predictions were garbage (shows how much I know).

Quote :

"I know you replied to my Oil Drum posting about energy pushing us over the edge and I think you somewhat disagreed. However, it can't be denied that most recessions were preceded by a spike in energy prices. I haven't really seen much talk about it but I personally (intuitively?) believe the skyrocketing cost of gas being the tipping point for this whole thing. "

You'll have to find my post before I can respond to that. One thing I have been almost dead on with is oil over the past 2 years. Im not saying I've been perfect, but I have posts on several boards that make me look prophetic.

I 'thought' I had stated on numerous occasions that oil simply couldnt go much higher than where it went because it would be the downfall of the world economy, demand would collapse, and prices would fall. At least that was my refined argument over months of talking. You'll need to find the thread and show me my post before my recollection can be refreshed.

Quote :

"Ummm...oops. So, no, he hasn't been a perma-bear."

I guess this is as telling as anything, since hes no more correct than just about anyone else.

[Edited on March 2, 2009 at 5:02 PM. Reason : .]

3/2/2009 4:56:18 PM

http://thewolfweb.com/message_topic.aspx?topic=547655&page=1#12265217

I was nattrngnabob for that post.

Quote :

"nattrngnabob Suspended 1038 Posts user info edit post Quote : "Yes, lets impose restrictive requirements only on US automakers at a time when gas prices are free-falling. BRILLIANT! Talk about setting them up for future failure..." Something has to be done to shelter the US economy from $150+ oil again. You are aware that this is really what pushed the first card out of the house of cards that was the housing bubble, right? We can impose the requirement on ALL automakers wanting to do business here if we really had to go this route. 11/7/2008 2:59:14 PM CarZin patent pending 7972 Posts user info edit post I've heard that argument, but I dont think it holds up too well... its kinda like saying "9/11 was the first card that caused the dot com bust". High oil prices may have been 'a' catalyst to start the crash, it was not 'the' cause. Regardless if gas was $2 a gallon, or $4 a gallon, the housing bubble was going to burst regardless. Dont believe everything (or most) of what you read on theoildrum.com. 11/7/2008 3:11:01 PM"

3/2/2009 5:47:56 PM

glad you posted that. I wasn't saying high oil prices couldn't start a recession. They can. This recession wasn't started because of high oil prices, but high oil prices didn't make things better.

Higher energy costs are associated with periods of great growth, which means there is a bubble waiting to burst. Doesn't necessarily mean high energy prices are 'the' cause. However, once out of this downturn, a return of high oil prices with the absense of big growth could cause a recession.

I think it's unlikely anytime soon. CERA is predicting a 10-12 Mbpd excess capacity in the next couple of years.

3/2/2009 8:46:44 PM

http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2009/03/cbi-of-12-suggests-bounce-is-near.html

Speaking of Denninger being a perma-bear, even he is calling for some sort of rally

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/845-Beware-The-Sharp-Snapback.html

And, if you believe elliot wave, the image I posted recently
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3650/3319267637_4d5b3897e0_o.png

seems to imply we have a sub wave 4 correction in the near term within this larger wave 5 down.

Thinking about some March 50 puts on FAZ. They are going for about 3.55 now, and if we do get a bounce, say 10% in the RIFIN.X, that will put FAZ falling by 30% to 55 and that should push the 50 puts to 10 fairly easily.

[Edited on March 3, 2009 at 11:19 AM. Reason : .]

3/3/2009 11:03:53 AM

yahoomail has a news story that says "STOCKS RISE AFTER HUGE LOSE YESTERDAY'

I check cnn and they're down 12 points

HEEYYOOOOOO

3/3/2009 11:34:29 AM

i don't pay attention to the news during the day. i barely do at night, too. they're all a bunch of "morans."

3/3/2009 12:05:01 PM

My FAZ puts I just bought for 3.30 are trading for 3.60. My BBY puts I bought at 1.85 (that subsequently went to 1.30 ) are trading at 2 (though B/A is coming down now).


This feels like one of those days where the market will end up big.
However, this little intraday pop could be pump and dump ahead of the Giethner news. It ultimate just depends on what he has to say. If you're watching the screens, it might not be a bad idea to grab some FAS with a really tight stop and scalp some quick profit.

[Edited on March 3, 2009 at 12:29 PM. Reason : .]

3/3/2009 12:29:05 PM

And another call for a coming bounce

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/spx200dma.jpg

3/3/2009 12:35:36 PM

I think I may have actually identified a stock that I will purchase (against my better judgment since the market is probably only slightly undervalued versus the long-term trend and it will take years to make any inflation-adjusted money) because it's just so cheap.

I may even buy another, but that's where I cut myself off.

My alternative investment to stock #2 is Powerball tickets because it seems like fun to buy a bunch at least once and it's money that I won't miss. Risk-adjusted return is probably about on par since the "shares" of either costs about the same thing.

Yay I got to participate in the stock market thread!

3/4/2009 12:04:58 AM

dammit should have bought DXO at $2. had finger on the trigger

3/4/2009 9:16:07 AM

WTH? S&P up 1.5% and FAS is barely budging. Which shit bank is dragging it down today?

Edit:
Looks like GE is the drag. Dickholes. Maybe rallydurham is going to be right about something for a change, and GE is going the Chap 11 route.

It's down 14%. The shorts are just crushing this thing. Wonder if this will be the capitulation day the market has been searching for?

[Edited on March 4, 2009 at 9:59 AM. Reason : .]

[Edited on March 4, 2009 at 10:15 AM. Reason : .]

3/4/2009 9:57:27 AM

Alright guys -- time to buy GE. I just sold mine so it is guaranteed to skyrocket.

3/4/2009 10:46:45 AM