East coast...you bunch of non snow-deserving turds.

2/9/2011 7:47:24 AM

its horseshit

2/9/2011 8:41:54 AM

I'm no weather man, but I just took a look at the latest NAM/GFS runs. Big discrepancy. The NAM has ZERO QPF in the Triangle for the whole event and the GFS has upwards of .25" (still not a huge amount per se) for the Triangle east.

2/9/2011 8:53:59 AM

What's interesting isn't necessarily model discrepancy (that's always there, especially b/t NAM and GFS), but the fact that from the 00Z to 06Z runs, the GFS brings more moisture inland, while the NAM has less moisture inland.

So, ya know, there's that...

2/9/2011 9:09:22 AM

Well as I see it, the ZAM next to the WTF has bigger implication than then the GTFO.

2/9/2011 10:37:46 AM

True.

2/9/2011 10:45:48 AM

itt Senez must explain acronyms.

2/9/2011 2:03:57 PM

GFS = Global Forecast System
NAM = North American Meso(scale) (formerly known as Eta)
QPF = Quantitative Precipitation Forecast

00Z, 06Z etc refer to time of model initialization.

Also, the RAH WFO has issued a Winter Weather Advisory.

So you guys can get raging boners over a dusting to a half inch.

2/9/2011 2:07:42 PM

There you go again with the acronyms.

WTF is RAH WFO?

2/9/2011 2:52:39 PM

so someone just please explain to me how it is going to snow at the beach, in the mountains but not inbetween?

or is there a real chance they are dropping the ball on this one and we get 6 inches?

[Edited on February 9, 2011 at 2:56 PM. Reason : ...]

2/9/2011 2:55:15 PM

^^RAH WFO = Raleigh Weather Forecast Office

^This is similar to what's known as Miller Type B cyclogenesis:



Similar but not the same. Not in the classical sense. The reason for the separation is the lack of a strong low spinning up off the coast. This low is forming along a frontal boundary just offshore and will be relatively weak and move quickly away to the east. Insufficient time is allowed for the system to become deep enough and push enough moisture inland for this to become a significant event. Not to mention the forward motion is carrying it away from NC.

There is little to no chance that they're missing on this forecast and you get 6 inches.*

*I say this with the caveat that there's never a guarantee.

2/9/2011 2:56:55 PM

So you're saying there's a chance?

2/9/2011 4:09:00 PM

i've always been a NAM guy myself...but looks like if you want snow, you'd better believe the others

2/9/2011 4:28:46 PM

^I'm sorry to hear that.

2/9/2011 4:40:18 PM

Models have been a bit shaky for the past two weeks for us. The GFS handled last Tuesday's storm fairly well, so many forecasters were siding with it in respect to today's storm. Turns out the system elongated, lost a lot of its energy, and focused it in NE OK rather than SW OK. The GFS was the furthest from reality while the NAM was pretty much dead on.

I hate winter.

2/9/2011 7:02:30 PM

^x4 - I laughed. really hard.

also:

2/9/2011 8:39:03 PM

Should we be looking at the RUC now or just nowcasting?

2/9/2011 9:52:40 PM

You should just merely be watching the radar as the imminent mid-level dry air sucks any moisture out of this system.

Leaving us with jackshit.

2/9/2011 10:09:53 PM

Mother nature just hates Raleigh, it's a proven fact. We always get shafted in these scenarios.

2/9/2011 10:18:32 PM

i witnessed sleet/snow in Raleigh at 12:05 AM

2/10/2011 12:53:36 AM

I knew the moment The Fish said we wouldn't see anymore snow, that we would indeed see more snow.

2/10/2011 7:22:59 AM

Though I understand the logic 100%, I get irrevocably indignant every time it snows and they dont at least delay class.

2/10/2011 7:27:52 AM