I just won a facebook argument, TSB. Here's my story for you all just so you know it's not futile.

So a guy i've known a long time, used to go to church with and worked with at 2 different jobs (just incidentally), has been posting long rants with no line breaks (similar to thing i posted earlier) essentially being pro-Trump but not confrontational.

I posted an article earlier today detailing Trump's scamming of a Florida police officers group from the Washington Post. This guy made a long rant basically saying he doesn't believe it. I politely told him it was real, and if he was in such disbelief, he should reevaluate his choices. He responded with a rambling post about the boston massacre and how the media makes stuff up that I just ignore.

A few hours later he posts an article about football players kneeling, and included in the rant was the claim that these same football players must worship kanye west and the kardashians and reality TV stars. I post a picture of Trump as the host of the Apprentice and just say "sad how people revere reality TV stars so much" with a smiley face.

10 minutes later, he makes a new facebook post saying he's not going to be posting any news/politics to facebook anymore, just sticking to family stuff.

9/25/2016 2:33:27 AM

Did you 'win' or did you just get him to shut up?

Quote :

"he doesn't believe it [...] the media makes stuff up"

The total refusal to acknowledge basic facts is the scariest part. The right has been sowing media distrust seemingly forever, but I'm still amazed how Trump is able to brush off unfavorable coverage as made up lies, people out to get him, etc.

9/25/2016 10:14:29 AM

I hope to hear about more facebook political debates, after that can you tell me in great detail how your fantasy football team did this week?

9/25/2016 12:31:20 PM

^ cam Newton hosed me this wk

9/25/2016 4:45:45 PM

Once the fantastic new polls for Trump are added to 538 this morning I suspect we are 50/50 going in to the debates.

I thought once the polls slid back towards Clinton this past week a bit they would stay but Trump has had massive gains in PA and CO specifically and good national.

Legit toss up at this point.

[Edited on September 26, 2016 at 7:55 AM. Reason : I don't recognize large parts of America..]

9/26/2016 7:55:17 AM

51-49 on 538.

Essentially a dead heat.

Nate silver:

Quote :

"The latest polling is consistent with a Clinton lead of only ~1% nationally. State firewall breaking up. Trend lines awful."

[Edited on September 26, 2016 at 9:25 AM. Reason : ]

9/26/2016 9:21:27 AM

^^I was kind of afraid this would happen. I fear that many people view Trump as a practical choice even given his horrible shortcomings.

9/26/2016 9:26:12 AM

He is getting more of GOP vote share than Clinton is Democrat. Shocking to me.

It's sad to say but it is becoming increasingly more obvious that his views and rhetoric aligns with the GOP base. I'm not saying the conservative ideology and not all members of the GOP but the GOP base. He is the party and the party is him. Impossible to argue otherwise.

9/26/2016 9:28:38 AM

Uneducated whites and white Christians are dominating this election. Not enough educated people and minorities to offset this.

I've seen plenty Clinton ads too so it doesn't look like people care about trumps sexism and general non-Christian-like behavior.

I can't imagine BLM protests are helping either, although trump would likely make this worse.

9/26/2016 9:33:37 AM

White Christians are pretty much the shitstains of our country. At least the evangelicals. Zero conviction, full of hypocrisy and genuinely creepy.

(Full Disclosure: I'm a white Christian. But not evangelical.)

9/26/2016 9:36:18 AM

How is this not surprising. There are still tons of working class people in this country. Trump is a working class nominee, like it or not.

When it comes to pocketbooks, people can let silly things like sexism and racism slide. (that silly in the sentence is sarcasm synapse) Most working class Americans feel like he's the better choice for their pocketbooks. End of story.

And Nym, while it is anecdotal, most Republicans in my circle despise Trump. The people that I know that like him are either independents or something worse.

9/26/2016 9:37:56 AM

You have to get the base to vote in order to win the general, Hillary is just one of the least excitable candidates in history with her low approval and trust ratings so it's not shocking to see she is having a hard time rallying the base. It's hard to run on the platform of I'm not that other guy but luckily for her the other guy is the biggest clown to reach this level.

9/26/2016 9:40:07 AM

Most of my GOP/conservative friends are anti-Trump too though I suspect they vote for him over Clinton.

I freely admit I live in a bubble. My college educated friends and co-workers are not real America (as TV and print media keeps telling me daily).

9/26/2016 9:41:03 AM

I see a wide variety of people that consider themselves to be conservatives or republicans and I am getting both hold my nose and vote against Hillary (aka for Trump) and I'm seeing some that are just sitting out the election, and then of course there are a few that have convinced themselves that Trump is good due to their dislike for Hillary. I know no one that seems excited to vote for either.

9/26/2016 10:08:20 AM

The media is only shifting the polls to try to win congress. Trump doesn't stand a chance. He can contrast with himself all day but that still isn't going to get him Philadelphia. Polls always skew republican because the masses don't really think about the election until a few days before then they all show up to vote democrat and go back into hibernation for 4 more years. It may be close, he may even win the popular vote by a lot but the math for a trump win simply does not exist.

9/26/2016 10:17:39 AM

Me? I'm probably going to end up holding my nose and voting for Hillary.

9/26/2016 10:18:11 AM

saying you're going to hold your nose doesn't make it any less shameful. Bush and a ton of republicans are voting hillary this time around and it would have been the same way if paul had won.

9/26/2016 10:22:15 AM

Quote :

"Most of my GOP/conservative friends are anti-Trump too though I suspect they vote for him over Clinton. "

then they're not anti-Trump. they're anti-admitting they're going to vote for a racist piece of shit

[Edited on September 26, 2016 at 12:21 PM. Reason : .]

9/26/2016 12:21:26 PM

Rush is going on and on about the "Democratic Press" demanding that the moderator fact check Trump tonight.

9/26/2016 1:08:59 PM

No predictions for tonight?

Streaming info here: http://www.theverge.com/2016/9/26/13057162/presidential-debate-live-stream-schedule-online-streaming-time-2016

9/26/2016 2:14:54 PM

I predict that we're not really going to know anything more about these two candidates than we already do. They'll hurl a couple of insults, give us vague answers, and we'll be back to the shitshow tomorrow.

9/26/2016 2:29:29 PM

I don't know why so many are downplaying the fact that this will be the first time Trump will have to face direct opposition for the first time during this campaign. that's kind of a big deal.

9/26/2016 2:36:20 PM

^^ Sounds about right. I imagine they'll keep it low key in this one. Trump will try to appear Presidential with his remarks. Hillary will try and appear more authentic with hers. Both will probably fail miserably.

Prop bets:

Quote :

" Here are some prop bets, according to Sportsbook.ag. First Greeting - What will the Candidates do when they Meet on Stage for First Time? Shake Hand and No Embrace 1/4, Hug with No Kiss 7/2, No Physical Contact with Each Other 13/2, Hug and Kiss on the Cheek 8/1 Number of Viewers according to Neilson TV Ratings Over 99.5 Million +120, Under 99.5 Million -165 Will Donald Trump mention Bill Clinton? Yes -185, No +140 Will Hillary Clinton mention Melania Trump? Yes +250, No -340 Will Trump say (Crooked Hillary)? Yes -110. No -130 Will Trump say (Build the Wall) or (Build a Wall)? Yes -450, No +300 Total number of times the word (Deport) or (Deportation) is used by Either Candidates Over 6.5 (-120), Under 6.5 (-120) Total number of times the word (Liar) or (Lying) is used by Either Candidates Over 5.5 (-140), Under 5.5 (Even) Total number of times the word (Racist) or (Racism) is used by Either Candidates Over 2.5 (-130), Under 2.5 (-110) Total number of times the word (Email) or (Emails) is used by Either Candidates Over 7.5 (-120), Under 7.5 (-120) Total number of times the word (Foundation) is used by Either Candidates Over 4.5 (-120), Under 4.5 (-120) Total number of times the term (Wall Street) is used by Either Candidates Over 3.5 (-120), Under 3.5 (-120) "

9/26/2016 2:37:25 PM

I can't believe people actually bet on the debates like that. Are people so hard up for gambling that that is something enjoyable?

9/26/2016 2:42:43 PM

^ a lot of statisticians do it as a way to test themselves, and it's also a form of polling, to see what people who are willing to put their money on something think will happen.

9/26/2016 2:49:55 PM

So, how has she completely sank back to even in the poles?

9/26/2016 3:33:53 PM

The fainting and shit were a big part of it

9/26/2016 7:20:19 PM

The GOP accepting Trump is their party also.

If you can believe that the Clinton's have systematically had leaks and their opposition killed (in other words you are a god damn moron) you will never vote for one.

9/26/2016 8:00:52 PM

The networks started to lose a lot of money when polls showed hillary by a landslide so they had to make it look even before the debates.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horse_race_journalism

9/26/2016 8:02:14 PM

Still sitting here in awe that a b-list celebrity could be president.

9/26/2016 8:09:15 PM

Wasn't Reagan a b-list celebrity? I guess maybe he was bigger even when he ran for governor.

9/26/2016 8:25:59 PM

No. He was a two term governor of a massive state and economy.

9/26/2016 8:42:48 PM

nice of them to make us listen to the assholes on the commission of debates talk about how they not only destroy our democracy, but help destroy democracy elsewhere in off election years.

9/26/2016 8:46:29 PM

Where's the over/under on how many unspecified people Trump mentions that have told him things.

9/26/2016 9:10:34 PM

Well, "many" is a pretty broad term...

9/26/2016 9:55:29 PM

https://twitter.com/WeifengZhong/status/780603939590852608

Quote :

"During the debate with @HillaryClinton, @realDonaldTrump's betting odds plunged from 39% to 31%, according to @PredictIt."

9/26/2016 11:17:35 PM

Sportsbooks gave the debate to Trump.

9/26/2016 11:26:20 PM

^ In what way? Who "won" a debate isn't something you could even bet on so why/how would sportsbooks comment on it?

9/27/2016 1:49:01 AM

I never understood the concept of saying one candidate won or lost a debate unless they did or said something absolutely terrible. You only know who wins by the number of people who show up to vote for you at the end. I don't think many minds were changed or made tonight.

9/27/2016 1:53:49 AM

Quote :

"I don't think many minds were changed or made tonight."

I dunno...Rjrumple predicted a Trump win yesterday, then post debate said "If the election were tomorrow, I't probably be Clinton"

9/27/2016 8:56:58 AM

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/150919416661/why-i-switched-my-endorsement-from-clinton-to

So the creator of Dilbert was formerly a Hillary supporter is now endorsing Trump. His reasoning is kind of idiotic, and this was written before the debates so some of the statements don't make sense now, but it's at least internally consistent.

Essentially, he seems to enjoy the feeling of being dominated by an idiot.

9/27/2016 7:40:15 PM

Please dig up the quote where I said Trump was going to win. Maybe I said it, maybe I didn't I don't remember. But you're equating winning a debate with winning votes. Trump could have sounded like the next Ronald Reagan last night and I still wouldn't be voting for him.

9/27/2016 8:28:38 PM

Quote :

"That kind of arrogance is what is causing Hillary to be even with Trump right now, and it's that kind of arrogance that is going to cost her the election."

9/27/2016 9:17:52 PM

Well, that wasn't quite me saying he was going to win the debate.

But I fear that you and many others are underestimating his draw with Americans. And I fear that it will end up costing Hillary the election.

9/27/2016 9:21:33 PM

Quote :

"Well, that wasn't quite me saying he was going to win the debate."

Notice the word election is quoted. I wasn't talking about the debate.

Quote :

"his draw with Americans. And I fear that it will end up costing Hillary the election."

Wait is it people's arrogance or people "underestimating his draw with Americans" that's going to cost her the election?

9/27/2016 9:32:34 PM

Trump easily could have won the debates, i don't fault anyone for suggesting otherwise.

He steamrolled the primaries, and Hillary didn't exactly crush Obama back in '08.

Trump came off as so unprepared it seems like he threw it on purpose-- but I've accepted he's not this plotting. He clearly knows he lost this debate, the question is how he approaches the next one.

Rudy is saying he should pull out. Trump has tweeted it would "hit harder"-- i'm assuming going for more ad hom attacks. I think Hillary prepped for ah hocs and those won't work. He could try policy but he doesn't seem to have the attention span to learn policy to any real depth. Hillary also has more information about how trump debates to hone her approach even more.

Then there's still the possibility that the swing voters liked Trump's performance, and despite Hillary doing better, she may not have done better with the right people.

Nate Silver said it well... the debates should help Hillary in the polls, if she doesn't see the expected bounce, then Trump might be unstoppable. Also worth pointing out Hillary hasn't really been dropping as much as Trump has been rising.

And then the last factor is legitimacy. As long as Trump is a crank on twitter, it's easy to delegitimize him as a reality-TV- internet troll. But when he's put on stage next to Hillary as her equal, it gives him credibility and legitimacy as a politician, which could be the missing ingredient to puts trump up over Hillary's 45%.

9/27/2016 11:15:09 PM

^6

what a fucking total dunce. holy shit, his reasoning and rationale hurts my head.

9/27/2016 11:32:10 PM

what arrogance is there in saying that there is no legitimate argument to be made in support of Trump?

[Edited on September 27, 2016 at 11:44 PM. Reason : .]

9/27/2016 11:38:33 PM

Why is CNN doing an Obama townhall a month before the election?

Its not like there aren't two other candidates running who they haven't covered in months.

Nope. Not BIASEDAF at all...

9/27/2016 11:43:47 PM

How in the hell is Scott Adams endorsing Trump now? Practically every blog post that he inexplicably puts up between his Dilbert cartoons (seriously, I don't go to Dilbert to see political bitching) is straight off of the left's talking points. What in the fuck?

[Edited on September 28, 2016 at 12:09 AM. Reason : ]

9/27/2016 11:44:29 PM