lol i was gonna buy some at 6 - doh

i need to quit being a pussy - but i just like my account in the GREEN too much to take risks lately lol

3/4/2009 10:57:41 AM

Quote :

"It's down 14%. The shorts are just crushing this thing. Wonder if this will be the capitulation day the market has been searching for?"

Not even close to capitulation day (based on date, not value)

Also its not the shorts which are crushing it.

3/4/2009 11:56:00 AM

No, there seems to be a bit of talk in the blogosphere (also saw it reference on CNBC) that there is a bit of manipulation going on with it.

Could be this
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/849-Stop-OTC-CDS-Abuse-NOW.html

3/4/2009 11:58:38 AM

that article, which i admittedly only skimmed, does not rest the blame on all shorts and puts but only those in credit default swaps. It maintains that normal shorts and puts are not the problem.

I'm going to actually read it after lunch but if there is something i did miss skimming please let me know.

3/4/2009 12:13:14 PM

Eh, read it again. It's a negative feedback loop. The massive amount of put buying creates the "rush" from people outside of the scheme and causes the to pile on. Which causes the cost of the CDS to rise which has the manipulators doing more piling on of the PUT buying. The PUT writer wants to be hedged so he shorts the common. It doesn't really make a lot of sense to write a put (bullish) and short the common (bearish), but these guys survive on the margins and make money by exploiting spreads. But with CDS, since they aren't traded on an exchange, they aren't regulated and the information is hidden from the public at the same time. This is just bad bad news.

3/4/2009 12:18:07 PM

Still haven't read the article but I will in about 30 minutes or an hour. But from what you said isn't that still putting the bulk of the blame on the CDSes? I understand the concept of it being a negative feedback loop, but isn't the main issue in the article to rid the CDS loop holes, thus placing the blame on them and their actions associated with short selling, but not with short selling itself?

3/4/2009 2:29:29 PM

Figures I'd troll yesterday with an itchy trigger finger on ERX and not pull the trigger. This is without a doubt the epitome of the insanely shitty luck I have. I get in ahead of time ona bounce that I knew was coming...only it didn't come to the financials yet which is what I needed to get the fuck out of FAS. Open mouth, insert barrel, pull.

3/4/2009 3:02:54 PM

just bought FAZ at 73 - hope i'm right

doh forgot i'm out of day trades... was gonna take 5% and run.

[Edited on March 4, 2009 at 3:31 PM. Reason : ]

3/4/2009 3:19:04 PM

who's your daddy? quick 9-10%

[Edited on March 4, 2009 at 4:01 PM. Reason : ]

3/4/2009 3:56:19 PM

I think you just said you were out of day trades?

3/4/2009 4:16:25 PM

Quote :

"This hammers the stock price which then reflects into the pricing models for the CDS, driving them higher."

I see where you're getting your point of view from that one line quoted above. Even so, once again acknowledging the fact that its a feedback loop 'shorting' in of itself is not the issue, and that was the sole point i was making from the start.


^not bad on that 10%.

3/4/2009 4:17:26 PM

10% assuming it doesn't drop much tomorrow then again it's an ETF and i could be back to even at open or up another 10%

3/4/2009 4:21:35 PM

No, it actually is the shorting. The CDSs can stand alone by themselves as an insurance policy. Without concerted manipulation, the stock trades normally. However, the guy that just wrote those CDSs want to hedge, so they start loading up on the puts as insurance against their insurance. The PUT writer wants to hedge too so he starts shorting. It then snowballs pretty quickly because the traders and people with big positions looking at their screens start to panic. It really isn't so much different than an ordinary bank run in the way it works.

The flip side is this is more organic than it seems and GE really is in a shit ton of trouble. I tend to straddle the fence a little on the whole manipulate/conspiracy thing. I don't put it outside of the realm of possibility, but history has many examples of some very smart people able to manipulate the system.


^ You're brilliant, how did you manage to catch it right at that trough it made?

[Edited on March 4, 2009 at 4:27 PM. Reason : .]

3/4/2009 4:26:43 PM

i only trade fas/faz also, knew the rally wouldn't last the last 30 minutes so took the chance. i'd say my past 10-15 trades of fas/faz - i've lost 1-2 times.

oh and it hit 73 a bunch of times within the first 10-15 minutes of me holding it, then it jumped

[Edited on March 4, 2009 at 4:31 PM. Reason : ]

3/4/2009 4:30:03 PM

i totally agree with you on the concept that manipulation is possible, so i'm not writing that off. What I am thinking is I have not fully illustrated my point, and thats my bad. My position is that shorting in and of its' self is not the cause. The cause is a system that takes place with using selling short, long puts and shorting puts all together. That is what I was trying to acknowledge when I put up that one quote. But shorting, by itself is not the culprit.

^i'd sell at the gap tomorrow and not get greedy.

but thats just me.

[Edited on March 4, 2009 at 5:00 PM. Reason : dolla bills y'all]

3/4/2009 4:32:34 PM

Bought 100 shares FCX at $27.15 earlier this week during the sell off

Sold all today at $32.33.

Could made a bit more but i got impatient with my $32.64 limit and downed it $32.33 after lunch.

3/4/2009 4:45:15 PM

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29510966

PLEASE LET THIS HAPPEN. I have a gut feeling it will because the big ball money running the show from Wall Street will demand this happen.

3/4/2009 7:06:13 PM

let me sell my FAZ first please

3/4/2009 8:26:46 PM

Looks like you're gonna take that 10% to 15% at the open.

3/5/2009 8:16:26 AM

make that 20%

[Edited on March 5, 2009 at 9:33 AM. Reason : ]

3/5/2009 9:17:34 AM

LOL nice job bous!

3/5/2009 9:39:54 AM

Alright smarty, what is the trade today? What I see on my screen is a massive volume spike and the stock holding at 3.40. My gut says pull with about 1000 shares on FAS right here, but I'm not doing it.

3/5/2009 9:41:30 AM

i just sold FAZ at 87.14 (stop mkt hit at 87) - getting into FAS - but going to watch first

FAS at 3.29 right now - jeez

[Edited on March 5, 2009 at 9:51 AM. Reason : ]

3/5/2009 9:44:03 AM

Yeah, I'm down 1400 on my position. Looking to do something stupid like grab 1000 shares of it and "pray" it goes up 50 cents. It seems to be holding reasonable well around 3.30-3.40. I tried to hold 3.40 and couldn't, now its trying to hold 3.30. I have a 5 minute candlestick up and the volume on each 5 minute is around 4 million. So it's steady buying selling at this level. But I don't see any technical indicators that make me think its going to do a real break just yet.

Supposedly factory orders news is coming shortly (per CNBC), that might make it move.

Actually looks like it's trying to form a doji at 3.30. The range is extremely tight in this 5 minute tick on low volume as well. Might not be a bad spot to get in.





[Edited on March 5, 2009 at 10:01 AM. Reason : .]

3/5/2009 9:55:54 AM

got in. set a tight stop.

3/5/2009 10:01:27 AM

yeah I just picked up some FAS at $3.30

3/5/2009 10:01:48 AM

Githner is talking again today. SO, be aware of that.

3/5/2009 10:03:08 AM

yeah part of me is afraid i'll lose some on this deal, but worth a try i think.

3/5/2009 10:04:16 AM

I don't know that I have ever seen FAS trade in such a tight range.

3/5/2009 10:10:11 AM

starting to drop

3/5/2009 10:10:27 AM

ok i think i'm done for the day

3/5/2009 10:15:55 AM

Yeah, it tried to hold 3.40, no dice, 3.30, no dice, 3.20, so far not so good. I have mine waiting at 3.30. If it moves back up with some strength, I 'll go in.

3/5/2009 10:22:04 AM

I read this thread a lot, any paticular reason you guys just mainly talk about FAS and FAZ?

it hit 3.09 just now, wow.

3/5/2009 11:03:53 AM

because of its volatility can make or break you very quick.

3/5/2009 11:06:02 AM

triple etf

3/5/2009 11:06:14 AM

for those of you who do a lot of technical analysis, how do you decide your time frame you watch. 1minute, 5minute, hourly, daily, etc... when attempting to follow a trend?

3/5/2009 11:15:41 AM

jesus christ how low can this shit go in 1 day

3/5/2009 11:15:44 AM

It's mind boggling really how much fear and selling pressure is in this market.

I grabbed 500 at 2.98, OCA with stop at 2.75 and a 5c trailing stop set to 3.25 (because I have to be away from the machine soon).

Quote :

"for those of you who do a lot of technical analysis, how do you decide your time frame you watch. 1minute, 5minute, hourly, daily, etc... when attempting to follow a trend?"

I don't do a ton of it, just the basics. I can read a candlestick and know some basic patterns. I tried 1 minute with FAS and it moves to quickly for me to discern too much from it. I switched over to 5 minute ticks and like it better. I usually add a 20sma and a 50sma and volume. Im only using scottrade so I can't apply a lot of the other stuff you need for good real time tech analysis (like stochastics, macd, bollinger bands, etc). I've found the moving averages and volume do give 'ok' intraday ideas about mentality. For instance, with FAS, volume was in the 4 million range per 5 minute bar for the first 45 minutes or so, then volume started to fade as the stock trickled down (generally very bearish, should have thought about that before I pulled the trigger). Then when it went under 3 you could see a pretty quick volume spike back to the 4 million mark for that tick, indicating a lot of stops triggering most likely. The stock hasn't bounced off that which is generally a really shitty sign.

[Edited on March 5, 2009 at 11:27 AM. Reason : .]

3/5/2009 11:21:43 AM

After touching 2.86, it looks like it's trying to take some life with a nice green bar forming so far.

3/5/2009 11:37:09 AM

SS or it didn't happen...



I don't care what the market is going to do for the rest of the day, I just wanted to lock in these gains.

3/5/2009 11:41:25 AM

Is that an IRA or are you just that baller?

3/5/2009 11:44:02 AM

that's my taxable investment account

but hey, I like those gains so I'll pay the taxes

These were options that I bought two days ago on the large gap up we had. They were nicely profitable but I held onto them. I added some yesterday including the SKF and more SRS. I was making $177 on all the DECK options but I made my limit price the bid price and lost a tiny bit. I just wanted to get out of these positions just in case the employment situation tomorrow was surprisingly good and fucked me. We're really oversold here so we could get a big fat rise tomorrow on a report that meets expectations or jsut isn't worse than analysts expectations.

[Edited on March 5, 2009 at 11:50 AM. Reason : info]

3/5/2009 11:45:17 AM

Fucking hell those gains are sick. What is SKDCM. You made 30k in a couple days on that?! Or 65k over a couple days?

I'm...incredulous.

[Edited on March 5, 2009 at 11:49 AM. Reason : .]

3/5/2009 11:48:16 AM

^^

you lonely sailor?

3/5/2009 11:51:49 AM

SKDCM = PROSHARES TR PSHS ULTSHT FINL MAR-09 $195.00 CALL
SKRCD= PROSHARES TR PSHS REAL ESTAT MAR-09 $82.00 CALL
SKRCK = PROSHARES TR PSHS REAL ESTAT MAR-09 $89.00 CALL
WFCOO = WELLS FARGO & CO NEW COM MAR-09 $13.00 PUT
QUKRI = DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP COM JUN-09 $45.00 PUT

there's the details on those tickers.

3/5/2009 11:53:23 AM

to be honest, I'm pretty fucking excited and nervous and shaking lol. I didn't think they would do that well but I rode them until I just couldn't stand it anymore.

3/5/2009 11:55:25 AM

So just how large is your trading account, how long have you been trading, and how much are you up YTD?

And how does a 26 yr old amas a 100k trading account?

Yeah, your SKF calls are up 78% today over yesterday.

[Edited on March 5, 2009 at 12:01 PM. Reason : .]

3/5/2009 11:59:07 AM

yeah that's impressive. gg

3/5/2009 12:06:53 PM

Quote :

"So just how large is your trading account, how long have you been trading, and how much are you up YTD?"

1: I'd rather not say.

2: Been investing since '98 but I bought INTC on the way down and just watched it suck for the last 8 years. Nov/Dec '07 I was making a profit but didn't sell cause I didn't know what else to invest in so I held on and watched my account lose 50% from that point. I finally sucked it up and sold taking a huge loss. I started trading last September. Made a lot of mistakes in capital preservation and fucked myself. Got attached to trades and learned lessons from those losses.

3: Last year, I had about a 50% loss and made probably 85% of that back but I was holding some losers into this year which I've sold off to cancel out gains from trades this year. YTD I'm up about 50%.

[Edited on March 5, 2009 at 12:08 PM. Reason : I'm 33 right now.]

3/5/2009 12:07:37 PM

Can I have a temporary maybe become permanent man crush on you?

What moves are you going to make today? Seems like there is a lot of fear out there today? Looking to turn around and buy puts on SKF?

3/5/2009 12:09:58 PM