It's the end of the world as we know it!

7/8/2011 12:04:19 PM

HTCH in the green today

7/8/2011 12:08:42 PM

1985 - is SOLR a victim of the overall market today or is there some news I am not seeing?

7/8/2011 1:21:30 PM

It's starting to look like this last rally was the bulls final push. They've been trying to keep the market up for so long now I just doubt they have a whole lot left in the tank.

Ready to capitulate?

Quote :

"Also, the surge in Chinese exports to the US in June to a near record $19.1 billion (lower than just the $19.4 billion in July 2010), means that the official read of the US trade deficit which will be reported on Tuesday, will almost certainly spike, pushing GDP expectations lower yet again."

How about now?

Stocks aren't about predicting this quarter's profits. It's about calculating the next 15 years worth of profit. Since no one can do that with any accuracy, you're better off looking at macro conditions that will dictate profits for the next 2-5 years.

Since we look like we're facing a horrible growth environment during that time frame there's really no reason to own stocks now since we know they have to be cheaper later.

7/11/2011 6:15:21 AM

^^Definitely overall market, that and a fast technical run up=overbought technically

7/11/2011 12:59:18 PM

decided to pick up some AA at 15.90 with the expectation that they have a good earnings report this afternoon.

7/11/2011 3:55:53 PM

ships taking water Lieutenant

7/11/2011 8:00:50 PM

picked up some TYH today

7/11/2011 11:53:50 PM

Market crashes, a new stockholder cries. his shares fall to the floor. The confusion sets in.

Oh now feel it coming back again

7/12/2011 9:01:25 AM

Starting to feel like 2008 again.

7/12/2011 9:35:37 AM

SOLR is tanking today on overal sector bearish news, however they are somewhat immune IMO, should be a good buying op

7/12/2011 12:01:09 PM

face has to be the most annoying poster active today

7/12/2011 12:06:12 PM

HTCH and WEN looking good today

7/12/2011 12:07:42 PM

down goes frazier down goes frazier

7/12/2011 4:59:27 PM

Closed the SOLR puts I purchased at .35 for .75 today.

7/12/2011 5:42:42 PM

^Good job, it was definitely technically overbought. I think itll head back up soon enough though.

7/12/2011 6:45:44 PM

Eh, it was luck I got any of that back. Being early is still usually equal to being wrong...especially when it comes to options. I actually botched the whole thing because I wasn't thinking that the first Friday of the month was on July 1st giving me effectively 2 weeks instead of 3 when I put that trade on.

Ultimately, SOLR and most of the stocks in this sector are just a leveraged play on tech and tend to respond well when commodity/inflation talk gets going again. I didn't believe the ramp job of this thing for one second and the low volume melt up didn't have me convinced.

As always, any word about saving Italy, Ireland, Spain, Pluto will change the direction of the market more strongly than natural forces. I would expect a bounce from this big down day but I still contend that this stock will find some more type of solid support in the 13.75 range and that would likely correspond very nicely with the rising SMA 50.

If it manages to probe these levels and we don't have any resolution in Europe (yet) then I'd only expect a resolution there (or crazier, renewed real talk of QE3) would trigger this thing again as all the weak hands that got shook off would hop back on the train.

7/12/2011 7:44:07 PM

Quote :

"decided to pick up some AA at 15.90 with the expectation that they have a good earnings report this afternoon."

I wish i had picked this up in the 14's when it hit while i was watching it a few weeks ago, just couldn't pull the trigger

7/12/2011 8:21:06 PM

^I have not seen any profit on it yet, but still see it as a solid long holding. I am trying to determine what I want to set my sell limit at. Will probably set it just below the 52wk high. May take me well into Q3 to hit it though.

7/13/2011 9:27:00 AM

not to sound like a numerologist or anything, but did a quick google on the matter and found this:

http://techfarm.blogspot.com/2007/08/s-500-returns-by-day-of-week-1962-2007.html


this is pre-2008. anyone know of a more recent/inclusive data crunch out there on the internets?

7/13/2011 10:18:35 AM

Hahaha oh my god they're already panicking with QE 3!!!!!


We gotta frontrun the fed. Gold and commodities to the moon!

Obama will stop at nothing to get re elected he doesn't care how badly he destroys the dollar. And the worst part is he can hide the dollar destruction behind the euro collapse

7/13/2011 2:14:18 PM

Maybe. The folks that would be fleeing the Euro will be looking for all sorts of other places to put their assets. If they don't buy the dollar then there will be no hiding of its destruction.

A couple of things

#1 You've been saying the dollar was being destroyed for months now and its only up ~5% since mid April.

#2 Bernanke's prepared remarks spent two paragraphs talking about tightening and 1 about QE3. It's likely why the market sold back off again after the initial ramp job.

The stock market is too high and the dollar is too low for them to launch it any time soon.

7/13/2011 5:34:59 PM

I agree, i think they will wait for the market to go a little lower before they launch QE 3. In the meantime they are doing things like today's $18 billion purchase, the oil SPR release, etc.

I've always said Europe will collapse first and that will temporarily prop up the dollar.

When people scramble out of the Euro some of that money (if not tons of it) has to flow to the dollar.

When you say the dollar is up 5% since April you are ignoring two major factors:

1) The dollar is WAY down over a slightly longer timeframe

2) You are measuring the dollar vs the dollar index. That index is over 50% in the Euro. So the dollar will perform well vs that index. Most of the currency in the world is complete garbage right now.


If you compare the dollar's performance vs gold, the dollar is WAY down. If you compare the dollar vs oil, the dollar is WAY down.

Compare the dollar vs real goods like orange juice, aluminum, etc and you can see it's been getting hammered for a decade.

In fact, it's down 97% since the Federal Reserve creation in 1913.

7/13/2011 6:38:49 PM

Quote :

"Moody’s moves one step closer to downgrading U.S. debt By Neil Irwin, Wednesday, July 13, 2:44 PM Moody’s Investors Service said Wednesday it has put the U.S. government’s top-notch credit rating on review for a possible downgrade because of the risk that Washington will not raise the federal debt ceiling in time to avoid a default. The firm added that even a brief failure of the government to pay its bills would mean that the United States’s Aaa rating “would likely no longer be appropriate.” The announcement comes after Standard & Poor’s, another of the major credit rating agencies, has said that it would dramatically downgrade the U.S. government’s credit rating if payments were missed. The U.S. has long been able to borrow money cheaply because global investors believe the government can be counted on to repay its debts. If credit rating agencies downgrade the U.S. and investors lose their faith in the creditworthiness of the government, the cost of borrowing money — in other words, the interest rate — could rise. The Treasury Department has said that on Aug. 2, it will run out of legal tools to meet the government’s financial obligations in the absence of an agreement to raise the $14.3 trillion legal limit on how much debt the government can maintain. The Moody’s review is prompted by “the possibility that the debt limit will not be raised in time to prevent a missed payment of interest or principal on outstanding bonds and notes,” an announcement from the firm said Wednesday. “Moody’s considers the probability of a default on interest payments to be low but no longer to be de minimis.” It added that an actual default, or failure by the federal government to pay its bills, “would fundamentally alter Moody’s assessment of the timeliness of future payments.” In early June, Moody’s had said it would likely review the federal government’s credit rating in mid-July if there were no “meaningful progress” in negotiations over raising the debt limit. That review is now happening. Moody’s also has placed on review several companies that enjoy implicit backing of the federal government, most notably the mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. A senior Treasury Department official pointed to the Moody’s announcement as evidence that Congress needs to act to raise the debt ceiling. “Moody’s assessment is a timely reminder of the need for Congress to move quickly to avoid defaulting on the country’s obligations and agree upon a substantial deficit reduction package,” said Jeffrey A. Goldstein, the Treasury undersecretary for domestic finance, in a statement. "

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/moodys-moves-one-step-closer-to-downgrading-us-debt/2011/07/13/gIQAPRUyCI_print.html

7/13/2011 6:41:19 PM

No one is here is arguing against the dollar being down. We're trying to understand why you keep saying shit is crashing when it just patently fucking isn't.

You're a god damned lunatic. And I don't say that because you always tout food and guns, I say that because every time you've gotten blustery in the past 6 months I just take the opposite trade as you and make a killing.

You're flat on the year so you're clearly doing it wrong.

7/13/2011 8:40:30 PM

Quote :

"2009 was unreal because nearly everything i had went bananas (china, asia, gold, aapl, pot, etc) id venture to say it was about 100%."

-face 6/15/11

Quote :

"57% YTD through November holla. Riding the wave."

-rallydurham 12/2/2009

7/13/2011 10:34:02 PM

Then 57% would be closer to accurate and my gains in 2010 were understated.

I don't have access to previous returns I've switched jobs three times and brokerages four times in the past three years alone.

I've been right about the economy for three years running now. And that's not because I'm a geniys, I just use good sources. This is the easiest depression to forecast ever, there's just no conflicting news, every single piece of economic data is horrible

7/14/2011 8:52:10 AM

my EDC trailing stopped out yesterday. still stitting on some TYH, TNA, and DGP.

looking to get into AGQ now that its running again..


also: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WJxeX9YKQA





[Edited on July 14, 2011 at 9:51 AM. Reason : ]

7/14/2011 9:46:54 AM

Quote :

"Trust me, you don't want to be in any speculative low quality stocks while we drift back down to S&P 850."

-rallydurham 5/19/10

S&P up 21% to 1318 since then.

Quote :

"Bp continues its march to zero."

-rallydurham 6/14/10

BP up 31% since then

Quote :

"Liquidated about half my portfolio yesterday, I think ill sit this next recession out. Needed to have an emergency fund in case thiunks get really ugly this time"

-rallydurham 6/29/10

Quote :

"its tempting to try to catch a mini rally, but since the market is headed down further i think ill just sit out instead of trying to catch the proverbial knife. Why are you guys ignoring such obvious data, whats the point in being brave when bravery is wrong?"

-rallydurham 7/1/10

Dow Jones up 25% since then

Quote :

"I've been right about the economy for three years running now."

7/14/2011 11:31:57 AM

Economy does not equal the stock market dude. You can cherry pick all you want, but it doesn't change results.

Obviously after qe announcements I was going ultra long in commodities. How has gold done?


Economy is in tatters and 3% growth is pure fantasy.

If our budget was balanced wed be seeing like -5% growth dude

7/14/2011 12:30:52 PM

The real story is the bond market. Honestly, who is putting money in bonds (other than the Fed and primary dealers that have to as part of the "free money" deal)? If you are, are you fucking brain dead?

7/14/2011 12:45:32 PM

Old people

7/14/2011 1:49:22 PM

China has been trying to prop up the euro and its bond market. Classic throwing good money after bad scenario.


Every institution is camping in the short term treasury that's why we hit 0 on the 3 mo today bc everything lesser is negative. Fear prevalent. Vxx going nuts

7/14/2011 3:58:44 PM

GOOG killin it on quarterly release just now...

glad i got dat 190% TYH

7/14/2011 4:19:42 PM

Sweet. I always find it amusing when people don't want to invest in it because it costs too much per share.

7/14/2011 5:01:06 PM

S&p went negative for the year yesterday expressed in dollar terms.

Fear very prevalent

7/15/2011 9:09:28 AM

precious metals is the place to go. Gold, silver, platinum are going to increase as the dollar gets devalued, especially if qe3 is announced. However, these trades are going to be crowded and investors are going to look for other opportunities, so the next obvious place would be mining companies, gold mining in particular. Mining stocks lag behind the price of the actual underlying metal, so as gold increases the mining company earnings will increase with a slight lag. There are some good mining ETFs out there

[Edited on July 15, 2011 at 10:38 AM. Reason : .]

7/15/2011 10:35:04 AM

If I had some more money to throw around, I'd be interested in rare earth mining stock, but I wouldn't know how to separate the good from the bad.

7/15/2011 11:51:32 AM

No, the economy is not the stock market, however, you're posting in a thread that is clearly about the stock market. There's no cherry picking, just your predictions; there were no good ones that I left out.

If you want to talk results lets look at your track record.
2008: -55%
2009: we'll say +60% based on your post from '09
2010: +20%
2011: 0%

That leaves you down 14% since 2008. Brag all you want to about gold, you're still negative year over year.

Speaking of your predictions:

Quote :

"6/10/2011 12:29 pm. I'll say it. Aapl is a GREAT short at $327.41"

AAPL just hit a new all time high.

7/15/2011 3:57:02 PM

AAPL beasting. Another run up?

7/15/2011 5:11:51 PM

^^ but AAPL hit $310 immediately after i said that.


im actually way up because ive been investing my sac off the past three years while working. my losses in 2008 were tiny amounts in 401k in an account i just started when i got out of college.


but you are right i dont post in the stock market thread a whole lot so most of the things ive nailed are in the economic threads.

i did have great advice in the late 2008 or early 2009 thread though when i nailed the world markets going up before the us markets.


The moral of the story is. If you account for the dollars losses in the past couple of years then stock market gains are thoroughly unimpressive.

Ultimately the market has to go down in terms of gold because we are in a liquidity crisis.

7/15/2011 5:46:16 PM

It went down, down, down and the flames went higher. And it burns, burns, burns

7/18/2011 10:05:10 AM

Is that a joke? You said to short AAPL because it was going to drop to $200. Instead it skyrockets to a new all time high and you're pointing at a minor dip as proof that you're right. You know what would have made a lot more money than shorting AAPL in that situation? Buying AAPL. Good job.

I'm sure you've made money since 2009. Everyone has. The fact remains that your rate of return is negative year over year. Maybe you should just put your money in a CD and leave investing up to the big kids.

7/18/2011 2:50:55 PM

SOLR down to 14.49

7/18/2011 2:56:29 PM

No one is going to short AAPL without a stop, and it going from 327.41 to 333 would have surely stopped you out had you decided to short it. Or, if you shorted it on June 10th at 327.41 and got out at the low the next day of 325.05, congrats on your .007% return, and that's assuming you (A) held the short over night, and (B) covered at the lowest point the next day at $325.07. Otherwise we'd just have to assume you got stopped out the day following at some point when it went up to $333.25 at a loss, then only to watch it go to the low 310's....on the way to an all time high. Just curious here, that's all.

7/18/2011 4:45:36 PM

I'm looking to short both $aapl and $good after $aapl's earnings. most likely will wait a few days. i can see $aapl hitting $400 is an relatively short time frame, then i'm looking for a pullback.

7/18/2011 5:11:47 PM

Time to put my trailing stop in place on SLV

7/18/2011 6:16:27 PM

A) I was talking about the market not aapl. My only positions are cash and gold and gold miners as I've mentioned many times.

B) I actually could have made a few grand if I had shorted aapl when I posted that as you remember it went straight down immediately after to about 310. Would I have sold? I don't know maybe not. I didnt even have an account I can get short in I have a roth and a 401k.

C) I opened an account last week and applied for puts because Apple gets more appealing to short by the day.

Obviously I hate the idea of going short because you not only have to get the timing right on the selloff, but you also have to close your position before they announce QE3. When the game is rigged this badly you really have to take outside factors into effect.

7/19/2011 12:04:59 PM

thoughts on BAC? hasn't been this low (~$9.40) since May 2009... got down to around ~$3 in early 2009 though.

if we have another crash, what good stocks are you guys looking at picking up for cheap?

7/19/2011 12:58:20 PM

wtf is going on today?

7/19/2011 1:40:29 PM