Quote :

"I just don't see how Luck doesn't win it if they make the playoffs. From dead last place a year ago(Indy with 2 wins, Redskins had 5 wins, Seattle had 7) to making the playoffs in one year, with injury-riddled OL, down 2 RBs, starting rookie WRs and rookie TEs and a bad D. He's already broken the rookie passing record, and there's a good shot he'll break the rookie passing TD record too. He's going to be a rookie throwing for over 4,000 yards. So I'll lay out all the stats: Luck Total Yards: 4,211 Total TDs: 25 Turnovers: 19 Wilson - Total Yards: 3,099 Total TDs: 24 Turnovers: 11 RGIII - Total Yards: 3,650 Total TDs: 24 Turnovers: 13 All having solid years as far as stats go, most other years any of them would be a likely candidate to win ROY. Now let's look at all 3 teams stats from last year, and where they ranked as offenses and the jump from 2011 to 2012. Seattle: They jumped from 2011 being ranked 28th, to 16th. Net: +12 Washington: They jumped from 2011 being ranked 16th, to 4th. Net: +12 Indy: They jumped from 2011 being ranked 30th, to 9th. Net: +21 Luck is just having the most effect on his team being better this year than the other 2. If you go just based on stats, Wilson doesn't have much of a shot. If you go on team improvement, Wilson doesn't have much of a shot(unless they win the division and the Skins tank)."

Where did you get those numbers? Griffin doesn't have 13 turnovers. He has four INTs and two lost fumbles.

And I don't like using wins and losses as a metric for judging a QB. There are just so many other factors that go into a team's win/loss record.

[Edited on December 19, 2012 at 11:41 AM. Reason : ]

12/19/2012 11:40:25 AM

They don't care about team record improvements. Cam took the Panthers from 2-14 to 6-10, no playoffs. Andy Dalton took the Bengals from 4-12 to 9-7 with a playoff berth and looking for their first playoff win since 1990 (thanks, wiki). His season stats:

3,398 yards (517 att), 20 TDs, 13 Ints, negligible rushing stats

Newton:
4,051 yards (518 att), 21 TDs, 17 Ints, 706 rushing yards, 14 RTD with several records broken and plenty of media coverage.

So if nothing else they'll look at stats first, and if you're going to include total touchdowns then you need to include total turnovers:

Griffin: 4 int, 11 fumbles (2 lost) - 15
Wilson: 9 int, 5 fumbles (3 lost) - 14
Luck: 18int, 10 fumbles (5 lost) - 28

Luck has a ton more yards because he throws the ball a fuckton more than Wilson or Griffin, but his yards per attempt (7.1) are less than either the other two (W 7.6, G 8.3) and his rushes per attempt (4.4) are less as well (W 5.2, G 6.7). He is a turn over machine through ints and fumbles and his QB ratings are down the sink.

Luck may have big passing numbers, but overall his quality is garbage so I think it's between Wilson and Griffin with Griffin having the edge by far. If you want to talk X Factor/story contribution, then Wilson gets it hands down. Controversial 3rd round draft pick brought into camp to be a historically and vastly undersized backup who beats out not only the incumbent for depth chart position, but in training camp and preseason games beats out the million dollar free agent brought in to be the starter. He is then compared through his performance on the field and diligence off the field to the #1 and #2 Heisman finalist draft picks who were drafted to be the starter from the get go. It's a god damn feel good Rudy story.

12/19/2012 12:03:45 PM

This is a pretty good read

http://www.fieldgulls.com/2012/12/18/3738042/russell-wilson-accuracy-on-the-move

12/19/2012 12:41:31 PM

I got Luck having 1 Fumble from ESPN.com and NFL.com stats and they have RGIII with 9 fumbles on the season. Not really sure where you're pulling your numbers from.

So the actual numbers are: (I would imagine the NFL would use their own stats to pick a winner of the award)

Luck
Total Yards: 4,211
Total TDs: 25
Turnovers: 19

Wilson -
Total Yards: 3,099
Total TDs: 24
Turnovers: 11

RGIII -
Total Yards: 3,650
Total TDs: 24
Turnovers: 13

And I get the "Rudy" story for RW. But just for shits and giggles, let's say he was drafted #3 overall right behind Luck and RGIII. Do you still have the same feeling about him right now winning this award? Or is it because he was slept on and underrated and came out and surprised a lot of people and proved people wrong? That doesn't make you ROY, that makes you a great story for ESPN, and not much else. Just like they keep pointing out that Tom Brady was taken late in the draft, but once you suit up, it doesn't really matter what round you were picked. You shouldn't have an edge in making the Pro Bowl because you had the same stats but were drafted 5 rounds later.

Cam vs. Dalton, I get the comparison, but let's be real, Cincy had a decent D, plenty of talent, but I think a lot of people gave Dalton's credit more to AJ Green than to Dalton. Cam won because he broke the single season QB rushing TD record as a rookie and carried the team on his back. Much like Luck is about to break a Peyton Manning record(potentially 2 if he finishes with 3 TDs each of the last 2 weeks) and that team wouldn't win a single game without him(something the Skins have done now twice).

This is a 2-horse race really, RGIII vs. Luck. I think Luck makes for the better story, esp if he goes out and beats the Chiefs this week to lock themselves in the playoffs. I think it comes down the playoffs.

Colts make the playoffs, Skins don't - Luck wins
Colts make the playoffs, Skin are wildcard - Luck wins
Colts make the playoffs, Skins win division - Toss up, would predict RGIII
Colts and Skins don't - Toss up, both would deflate award and potentially open it up for RW.
Any situation where RGIII makes the playoffs and Luck doesn't - RGIII wins

12/19/2012 12:44:01 PM

I don't understand why you guys are using all fumbles in your turnover numbers. Only on lost fumbles does the ball actually, you know, get turned over.

Quote :

"that team wouldn't win a single game without him(something the Skins have done now twice)."

Once. In the Ravens game, Cousins only came in at the very end of regulation to throw a TD pass and run for the two point conversion after Griffin had driven the team to within scoring range on a sprained knee and he didn't really do anything in overtime since the punt return put them in field goal range.

Quote :

"Colts make the playoffs, Skins don't - Luck wins Colts make the playoffs, Skin are wildcard - Luck wins Colts make the playoffs, Skins win division - Toss up, would predict RGIII Colts and Skins don't - Toss up, both would deflate award and potentially open it up for RW. Any situation where RGIII makes the playoffs and Luck doesn't - RGIII wins"

Again...team performance ideally wouldn't be much of a factor in deciding individual awards.

12/19/2012 12:51:11 PM

I got the stats from here: http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/85175/quick-look-at-stats-for-griffin-wilson-luck

12/19/2012 12:54:18 PM

Yeah, I'm not disputing the number of total fumbles. I just don't understand the decision to include fumbles that don't result in a turnover in your and LudaChris's turnover numbers.

12/19/2012 12:58:59 PM

it's not a turnover, but it's still a mistake made by the QB

12/19/2012 1:01:43 PM

Yeah, once the ball leaves the player the fumble itself becomes a thing of luck to whether or not it is a lost ball. Some examples would be fumbles in RGIII's games where the ball got knocked out of his loose grip and then miraculously bounced into a blocker's hands for a touchdown. You aren't going to coach a player off of fumble-prone plays because he gets lucky a lot.

12/19/2012 1:05:16 PM

It DOES NOT MATTER who recovered it. If its recovered by the team that fumbled ITS NOT A TURNOVER.

12/19/2012 1:16:41 PM

Griffin and luck are fumble machines. Check their stats

http://seattletimes.com/html/stevekelley/2019930716_kelley19.html

12/19/2012 1:18:22 PM

No one is arguing that RGIII puts the ball on the ground too many times. But you clearly have no idea what a turnover is.

12/19/2012 1:21:25 PM

I'm not sure what I'm supposed to be looking at in that^^ article.

But if we're going to count mistakes that don't have a tangible negative effect on the offense, shouldn't total incompletions be considered as well? Or what about delay of game or intentional grounding penalties (which both have a greater impact on the outcome of a drive than a recovered fumble does)?

12/19/2012 1:28:51 PM

Team success shouldn't come into play but Seattle is undoubtedly one of the top four teams in the league and the colts suck this year.

Just wanted to clear that up

12/19/2012 1:40:53 PM

Yeah, the article was just about Wilson and kind of pointless but I saw it

I don't know if delay of game or intentional grounding stats are as easily available, but you're welcome to dredge them up. Incompletions are considered through completion % and partially through yards per attempt. YPA are above I think, completion percents:

Griffin: 66.4%, Wilson 62.9%, Luck 54.6%

Again, Griffin has the edge, Luck is abysmal.

I count total fumbles because that is an individual screw up, whereas the fumbles lost is more a measure of the team's location at time of fumble, ball bounce, and team ball control (the fumbler doesn't recover the ball usually). No player consciously puts the ball on the ground just because his team is good at covering for his fuck up - and if you think about it, the Total Fumbles vs Fumbles Lost becomes a team stat, and we've already said team stats shouldn't count towards ROY. Ball control is an important skill for any player, and clearly RGIII and Luck have issues with it.

[Edited on December 19, 2012 at 1:41 PM. Reason : asdf]

12/19/2012 1:40:54 PM

Crop the football out of frame and this picture has "Haters Gonna Hate" written all over it

12/19/2012 1:48:25 PM

You can count total fumbles as fumbles because that is what they are. You can't count them as turnovers because they aren't turnovers. Unless you want to count a pass that was almost intercepted or even tipped up in the air as a turnover, because those are as close to turnovers as recovered fumbles.

[Edited on December 19, 2012 at 1:59 PM. Reason : ]

12/19/2012 1:58:07 PM

Oh, I see, you people are getting upset because I misused a word. My b

Was trying to say that counting only "turnovers" is misleading because of all the balls the heisman players put on the ground.

[Edited on December 19, 2012 at 2:25 PM. Reason : this is dumb]

12/19/2012 2:23:33 PM

Well technically if Player A fumbled the ball and Player B picked it up, whether it's on his team or the opposing team, Player A would have TURNED it OVER to another player, and thus could be considered a "turnover". It's all semantics and how you want to define the word.

You could throw in failed 4th down conversions too I suppose since it would technically be a turnover on downs by the QB as well.

12/19/2012 3:27:14 PM

Turnovers have a very clear definition.

Or Is a handoff or completed pass a turnover also?

And yes a failed 4th down is also a turnover (on downs) but is not attributed to a single player but the whole offense.

12/19/2012 3:37:15 PM

wolfbadger time coming up

12/23/2012 8:16:26 PM

WHAT WILL HE SAY

12/23/2012 8:26:30 PM

Hahaha yes!!!!!

A whole Pack of Badgers!!!

12/23/2012 8:34:50 PM

Hahahaha, a whole pack of badgers.

12/23/2012 8:34:54 PM

damn, he should've said wolf badgers

12/23/2012 8:35:30 PM

haha!

12/23/2012 8:36:33 PM

bahahaha

12/23/2012 8:36:41 PM

smooth

12/23/2012 8:38:33 PM

shit's weak.

12/23/2012 8:39:23 PM

I seriously love that man

12/23/2012 8:39:57 PM

~

12/23/2012 8:42:42 PM

Should've said badger pack

12/23/2012 8:43:00 PM

Wolf Badge Packer

12/23/2012 8:46:14 PM

he shouldve said Wisconsin so some of you would've jumped off his dick

12/23/2012 8:47:05 PM

I would have preferred "whole pack of wolves & badgers"

12/23/2012 8:47:18 PM

anybody got a video?

12/23/2012 8:57:35 PM

I loved it, not what I was expecting, but a great way for him to pay homage to both schools

Also, I am all aboard the Seahawks bandwagon now, they are tough

12/23/2012 9:28:05 PM

I can't imagine how loud it is there

12/23/2012 9:34:01 PM

love it

http://twitter.yfrog.com/hsveiwvj

12/23/2012 9:37:15 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sv3w_LHC64A&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DSv3w_LHC64Ap

12/23/2012 9:46:24 PM

thanks

12/23/2012 9:55:45 PM

Great fucking team. Sucks they started slow because if they had the bye plus homefield advantage they'd be the clear super bowl favorites right now.

Just really tough to win 3 road playoff games, but they are good enough that they have a shot.

Green bay did it two years ago when they were the best team in the league but had to go on the road

12/23/2012 10:29:33 PM

Rustle Wiltson

12/23/2012 10:31:19 PM

Gonna tie or beat Peyton Manning's rookie TD record.

Jesus christ. How good is wilson and how bad was TOB?

12/23/2012 10:47:03 PM

I told everyone for years he's the greatest QB in nc state history. It really wasn't even debateable.

If you take away rivers senior season where he was amazing, he was just a good QB his first three years not a great one. Certainly not an all time great like RW.

I mean seriously he's already an elite NFL QB as a rookie. How can anyone possibly compare him to rivers?

12/23/2012 10:54:36 PM

Fuck TOB

12/23/2012 10:56:19 PM

Fuck TOB

12/23/2012 10:58:39 PM

great rookie or greatest rookie?

12/23/2012 11:09:50 PM

Quote :

"Sucks they started slow because if they had the bye plus homefield advantage they'd be the clear super bowl favorites right now. "

they're pretty awesome at home

but lets not forget they should have lost to Green Bay

12/23/2012 11:09:59 PM

alright, between this and "whole Pack of Badgers", fuck TOB

12/23/2012 11:10:56 PM