Its not really that improbable for someone to go their entire life without having a royal.

What are the odds for a royal, like 1 in 649,739? (according to teh internets)

For something thats that rare to become a statistically improbable event youd need at least like a 6.5 million hand sample set.

im on the upside of the distrobution, having had 4.

ive logged close to 500,000.


now, saying youve never even seen one, like every ~65,000 hands you should see one.

but i dont know the combinatorial distrobutions involved in that hwoever, so it could be lower... or soemthing, i dont know.

11/1/2006 12:59:29 PM

i just read you were asking me my plans, sorry i missed it

i saw earlier where you had said you were going to MIA, so I was gonna stay around here.

So whats goin on

11/1/2006 1:02:32 PM

Are those odds for first 5 cards, or all 7 cards?

I thought it was 1 in 649,740

11/1/2006 1:07:35 PM

I dont think im gonna be able to make it to mia, cant find a place to board the pup with vacancies.

free weekend bong

just got a cant miss work event monday morning at like 8

11/1/2006 1:07:48 PM

Quote :

"Are those odds for first 5 cards, or all 7 cards? I thought it was 1 in 649,740"

david, i hope you're not calling me out for being different than you by 1.53908x10^-6

11/1/2006 1:09:27 PM

if i can find another to ride up i may make the trek

I dont want to take my car so If i could find someone who would take theirs id pay for gas

I'm considering the 10/25 game

[Edited on November 1, 2006 at 1:13 PM. Reason : .]

11/1/2006 1:12:03 PM

i might actually be able to get a reduced rate at borgata......

ive got an offer in my account, but i dont know if this weekend is sold out or not

11/1/2006 1:13:58 PM

oh snap

let a nga know

11/1/2006 1:15:02 PM

Quote :

"All Available OffersType: Name: Date: Expires: ROOM OFFER CALL FOR SPECIAL POKER RATES 11/01/06 12/22/06 "

11/1/2006 1:18:52 PM

you think jon would want to go

11/1/2006 1:19:50 PM

prly

11/1/2006 1:23:26 PM

u see my pm

11/1/2006 1:23:58 PM

Quote :

"david, i hope you're not calling me out for being different than you by 1.53908x10^-6"

Didn't they teach you anything in those cpe/ee classes of yours?

11/1/2006 1:26:20 PM

nope

11/1/2006 1:31:54 PM

karim- dont lose your roll playing in that game.

i nearly lost mine when i moved up from the $3r to the $5r

11/1/2006 1:33:15 PM

Quote :

"I'm considering the 10/25 game"

$2500 min, no max i think


i like to take shots, but jesus,

you're nuts man

11/1/2006 1:50:43 PM

^^ i wouldnt lose my roll. ive had 1 losing trip to AC in the last 18 months and that was because I include my hotel/food/travel costs

Ive done what ive needed to at 5/10 for about a year now. Why not 10/25

When I was in AC in october, the 10/25 table had only 5 locals, which is pretty good

[Edited on November 1, 2006 at 1:58 PM. Reason : .]

11/1/2006 1:55:36 PM

dude, im rooting for you.

11/1/2006 2:00:48 PM

11/1/2006 2:02:14 PM

ok now im confused about something entirely unrelated.

Quote :

"You need to earn an additional 818 by July 12, 2007 to become a My Borgata Black Label cardholder."

COMP DOLLAR STATEMENTSELECTED YEAR:  2003 2004 2005 2006  
Month:                Beginning Balance: Earned:    Redeemed: Adjustments/Expired: Ending Balance: 
October 2006        $138.41               $32.00     ($69.60)       $179.27                   $280.08 
September 2006     $149.57              $0.00        ($23.66)     $12.50                    $138.41 
August 2006          $306.51              $5.00         ($226.89)      $64.95                $149.57 
July 2006               $98.77              $140.00       ($40.84)        $108.58               $306.51 

11/1/2006 2:07:06 PM

go get em tiger

11/1/2006 2:09:17 PM

i may just pitch a bitch next time i go.

i want free parking and high roller lounge access.

11/1/2006 2:13:11 PM

but if youd ecide to come up this weekend, lemme know soon so i can try and get a room at borgata....if they arent sold out

11/1/2006 2:17:21 PM

i'll let you know for sure by tomorrow

11/1/2006 2:21:36 PM

kk

11/1/2006 2:23:51 PM

kkbllx

11/1/2006 2:29:35 PM

I want to see this pitching of a bitch action

11/1/2006 2:35:48 PM

bllx ```>.<```


~


gonna make all the (-_-)s be all like

(>.<

11/1/2006 2:36:28 PM

damn all this talk of poker I think I am going to head over to the day game.

[Edited on November 1, 2006 at 2:38 PM. Reason : retirees ]

11/1/2006 2:38:37 PM

Day game?

11/1/2006 2:51:05 PM

Hey I am playing tonight at 8:00, we have three people so far but would like to have more. If you are interested in playing, just PM me. It's $5 buy-in, no limit, and I live off Avent Ferry, a little bit past Varsity Dr.

11/1/2006 5:12:49 PM

just ran into set over set in a tourney. no good.

11/1/2006 6:56:54 PM

Thoughts on this hand?

PokerStars Game #6858811156: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2) - 2006/11/01 - 21:41:52 (ET)
Table 'Appella II' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: DavePham ($164.55 in chips)
Seat 2: labrat21 ($206.35 in chips)
Seat 4: BenHoganJr ($180.55 in chips)
Seat 5: oshan2 ($202.75 in chips)
Seat 6: atnas3atnas ($192.45 in chips)
Seat 7: The Hish 24 ($232.75 in chips)
Seat 8: AAFD ($64.95 in chips)
Seat 9: MychCumstien ($205.40 in chips)
oshan2: posts small blind $1
atnas3atnas: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to The Hish 24 [6d Ad]
The Hish 24: calls $2
AAFD: raises $6 to $8
MychCumstien: calls $8
DavePham: folds
labrat21: folds
BenHoganJr: folds
oshan2: folds
atnas3atnas: folds
The Hish 24: calls $6
*** FLOP *** [Jh 3d Ah]
The Hish 24: checks
AAFD: bets $10
MychCumstien: folds
The Hish 24: calls $10
*** TURN *** [Jh 3d Ah] [Ks]
The Hish 24: checks
AAFD: bets $20
The Hish 24: calls $20
*** RIVER *** [Jh 3d Ah Ks] [3c]
The Hish 24: bets $26.95
AAFD: calls $26.95 and is all-in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
The Hish 24: shows [6d Ad] (two pair, Aces and Threes)
AAFD: mucks hand
The Hish 24 collected $137.90 from pot
AAFD leaves the table
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $140.90 | Rake $3
Board [Jh 3d Ah Ks 3c]
Seat 1: DavePham folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: labrat21 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: BenHoganJr (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: oshan2 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: atnas3atnas (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: The Hish 24 showed [6d Ad] and won ($137.90) with two pair, Aces and Threes
Seat 8: AAFD mucked [Kc Qh]
Seat 9: MychCumstien folded on the Flop

11/1/2006 9:47:10 PM

im folding preflop usually

11/1/2006 10:00:03 PM

So did I make a donk call and get lucky?? Do you risk your tourny on that draw with a chance to quad up?
PokerStars Game #6858964363: Tournament #34619162, $3.00+$0.30 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2006/11/01 - 21:52:39 (ET)
Table '34619162 269' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: LuckyJax6 (9925 in chips)
Seat 2: sketchos (2705 in chips)
Seat 3: hiphoppy (11710 in chips)
Seat 4: bella1195 (3375 in chips)
Seat 5: 1creeky1 (10190 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 6: komotini (9385 in chips)
Seat 7: Stoli201 (46030 in chips)
Seat 8: kensmoe8 (13600 in chips)
Seat 9: CUgold61 (6850 in chips)
Stoli201: posts small blind 100
kensmoe8: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to kensmoe8 [Kh 9h]
CUgold61: folds
LuckyJax6: calls 200
sketchos: folds
hiphoppy: calls 200
bella1195: folds
1creeky1: folds
komotini: calls 200
Stoli201: calls 100
kensmoe8: checks
*** FLOP *** [8h Jh Ts]
Stoli201: checks
kensmoe8: bets 800
1creeky1 has returned
LuckyJax6: raises 1200 to 2000
hiphoppy: raises 9510 to 11510 and is all-in
komotini: folds
Stoli201: calls 11510
kensmoe8: raises 1890 to 13400 and is all-in
LuckyJax6: calls 7725 and is all-in
Stoli201: calls 1890
*** TURN *** [8h Jh Ts] [2s]
*** RIVER *** [8h Jh Ts 2s] [6h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Stoli201: shows [Qd 9s] (a straight, Eight to Queen)
kensmoe8: shows [Kh 9h] (a flush, King high)
kensmoe8 collected 3780 from side pot-2
hiphoppy: shows [Js Tc] (two pair, Jacks and Tens)
kensmoe8 collected 5355 from side pot-1
LuckyJax6: shows [Jd Qs] (a pair of Jacks)
kensmoe8 collected 39900 from main pot
birddog32 is connected
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 49035 Main pot 39900. Side pot-1 5355. Side pot-2 3780. | Rake 0
Board [8h Jh Ts 2s 6h]
Seat 1: LuckyJax6 showed [Jd Qs] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 2: sketchos folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: hiphoppy showed [Js Tc] and lost with two pair, Jacks and Tens
Seat 4: bella1195 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: 1creeky1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: komotini (button) folded on the Flop
Seat 7: Stoli201 (small blind) showed [Qd 9s] and lost with a straight, Eight to Queen
Seat 8: kensmoe8 (big blind) showed [Kh 9h] and won (49035) with a flush, King high
Seat 9: CUgold61 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

11/1/2006 10:01:40 PM

I would probably be worried someone else was on a flush draw. Even if it wasn't A high, that's two of yours outs down the drain. Although, you did have some pretty nice pot odds and an inside straight draw too, so I see nothing wrong with that play.

Now Hish on the otherhand.......

11/1/2006 10:10:53 PM

i know...im terrible...i never make the right play, or move.

11/1/2006 10:16:58 PM

What exactly did you put him on?

11/1/2006 10:28:15 PM

i figure we would be chopping the pot...i wasnt folding on his $25 river bet.

11/1/2006 10:39:14 PM

i know i've never posted in this thread....but im deep in the 30 rebuy on absolute now, come rail me
i'm ablee

11/2/2006 1:16:13 AM

heh...

5 left, I'm 2nd in chips... ABLEE = shortstack... weeeeeeee!

But we're all pretty even

11/2/2006 2:41:19 AM

came in 5th, pretty disappointed but nevertheless a nice 600 dollar profit

11/2/2006 2:50:17 AM

Quote :

"i figure we would be chopping the pot...i wasnt folding on his $25 river bet."

What did you think he had when you called his flop bet?

11/2/2006 7:18:23 AM

moe,

I don't hate that play in a tournament. I mean, you're getting about 3.7 to 1 on your money and you have the straight draw and flush draw, giving you 14 outs. That means you've got about a 51% chance of making either a straight or a flush (assuming no one's holding your outs). Even with only the flush draw, (9 outs) you've got a 35% chance or 2.9 against, still enough to justify a call even if you're missing some outs and there's always the chance that you'll make your hand and still lose.

To me, I guess it depends on how deep the stacks were. Were you sitting on an average stack and needed to make a move?

11/2/2006 7:43:51 AM

Quote :

"So did I make a donk call and get lucky?? Do you risk your tourny on that draw with a chance to quad up? PokerStars Game #6858964363: Tournament #34619162, $3.00+$0.30 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2006/11/01 - 21:52:39 (ET) Table '34619162 269' 9-max Seat #6 is the button Seat 1: LuckyJax6 (9925 in chips) Seat 2: sketchos (2705 in chips) Seat 3: hiphoppy (11710 in chips) Seat 4: bella1195 (3375 in chips) Seat 5: 1creeky1 (10190 in chips) is sitting out Seat 6: komotini (9385 in chips) Seat 7: Stoli201 (46030 in chips) Seat 8: kensmoe8 (13600 in chips) Seat 9: CUgold61 (6850 in chips) Stoli201: posts small blind 100 kensmoe8: posts big blind 200 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to kensmoe8 [Kh 9h] CUgold61: folds LuckyJax6: calls 200 sketchos: folds hiphoppy: calls 200 bella1195: folds 1creeky1: folds komotini: calls 200 Stoli201: calls 100 kensmoe8: checks *** FLOP *** [8h Jh Ts] Stoli201: checks kensmoe8: bets 800 1creeky1 has returned LuckyJax6: raises 1200 to 2000 hiphoppy: raises 9510 to 11510 and is all-in komotini: folds Stoli201: calls 11510 kensmoe8: raises 1890 to 13400 and is all-in LuckyJax6: calls 7725 and is all-in Stoli201: calls 1890 *** TURN *** [8h Jh Ts] [2s] *** RIVER *** [8h Jh Ts 2s] [6h] *** SHOW DOWN *** Stoli201: shows [Qd 9s] (a straight, Eight to Queen) kensmoe8: shows [Kh 9h] (a flush, King high) kensmoe8 collected 3780 from side pot-2 hiphoppy: shows [Js Tc] (two pair, Jacks and Tens) kensmoe8 collected 5355 from side pot-1 LuckyJax6: shows [Jd Qs] (a pair of Jacks) kensmoe8 collected 39900 from main pot birddog32 is connected *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 49035 Main pot 39900. Side pot-1 5355. Side pot-2 3780. | Rake 0 Board [8h Jh Ts 2s 6h] Seat 1: LuckyJax6 showed [Jd Qs] and lost with a pair of Jacks Seat 2: sketchos folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 3: hiphoppy showed [Js Tc] and lost with two pair, Jacks and Tens Seat 4: bella1195 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 5: 1creeky1 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 6: komotini (button) folded on the Flop Seat 7: Stoli201 (small blind) showed [Qd 9s] and lost with a straight, Eight to Queen Seat 8: kensmoe8 (big blind) showed [Kh 9h] and won (49035) with a flush, King high Seat 9: CUgold61 folded before Flop (didn't bet) "

in an online structure, this is correct 100% of the time.


hell, for any tournament ill go out and say you must do this

[Edited on November 2, 2006 at 7:50 AM. Reason : e]

11/2/2006 7:47:51 AM

^Well, pilgrim, you're probably right, because you play to win every tournament you're in.

A lot of times I play to cash, so it makes a difference. I mean, I don't make that play and possibly go broke when we're 2 spots from the bubble when I could easily coast into a cash.

I know you're supposed to play to win, but sometimes I just want to make my money back first, then attack. It is players like me that make it easier for players like you to steal and bluff near the bubble.

11/2/2006 8:06:15 AM

Why it is necessary is that:

1.) in an online structure, the play is abreviated to a point where if you pass on this hugely + gamble, you may not get a better spot to stick it in before you're blinded to nothing.
2.) you pass up so much equity by folding, and at this stage, cEV is very important. at 100/200 level, you're looking to gear up.

remember, the later the tournament goes, the less $EV the chips are worth

3.) this is Dam Theory in action

Quote :

"^Well, pilgrim, you're probably right, because you play to win every tournament you're in. A lot of times I play to cash, so it makes a difference. I mean, I don't make that play and possibly go broke when we're 2 spots from the bubble when I could easily coast into a cash. I know you're supposed to play to win, but sometimes I just want to make my money back first, then attack. It is players like me that make it easier for players like you to steal and bluff near the bubble."

As an investor, you see the exponential growth of ROI as you move up, why not go for it?

So youll decrease your variance, thats fine.

i guess its like buying CDs instead of more volitile investment pieces.

11/2/2006 8:18:40 AM

Nice analogy

11/2/2006 8:29:42 AM

Yeah, its a personal preference thing really. I mean, looking at it as an investor, REALLY close to the bubble I can take risk and increase my EV, but the spread has a -100% in it as opposed to a neutral EV (or slightly negative EV) of folding the hand in order to ensure a +5% or something without actually eliminating the possibilities of the +$Niger%

11/2/2006 8:30:28 AM

I used to play more of a tight game designed to make the money consistently but I wasn't winning anything.

When I started playing more hands and gambling more I found that not only did I start winning more but I also was able to play a higher number of tourneys with the ones I spent the most time on being ones that I had a bunch of chips.


It's just more fun.

11/2/2006 9:22:04 AM