Quote :

"Man i am so tired of hearing about the potential buyers from Circuit City FLOCKING to Best Buy. The effect of Circuit City's liquidation on Best Buy's business is negligible at best. There is a reason Circuit City went out of business - NOBODY WAS SHOPPING THERE. Although I like BBY's moat, I wouldn't touch a completely consumer discretionary stock like that for many years. Do you want to be in the business of selling plasma tv's in the forseeable future?"

People making such a skin-deep level of analysis is exactly why it may be a good buy, especially for a LTBH investor. I wouldn't disagree with anything you just said. However, if that's all priced-in and then some, it can be a good buy.

3/9/2009 7:19:04 AM

I'm going to short SKF, and hold it long term. Eventually SKF is bound to go down due to the nature of time decay with leveraged ETFs. If there is any volatility in the market left whatsoever and we're not simply on a spiral downward we will have to hit absurd lows (which i'm not denying is possible) following a bear market rally before SKF could hit its highs again. It may tie up funds for a few weeks or a month or so but its a play I can live with.

3/9/2009 8:50:38 AM

Are you literally going to short the stock? Ie, sale shares?

Like a crack addict, I went back for another hit of FAS at 2.75 after having my order window open at 2.55 and 2.65 and not pulling the trigger. Will take small profits if it gets up around 3.

[Edited on March 9, 2009 at 9:51 AM. Reason : .]

3/9/2009 9:35:35 AM

Feeling decent about this trade for now. It retraced back to the 20sma on the 1 minute chart and now keeps trying to trace a channel back up. The overall market just has a better feel to it today. The initial pullback was orderly on lowish volume (bullish signal). Oil going up could have some sort of a psychological effect on everything else.

3/9/2009 10:05:22 AM

just put in a limt on FAS for 2.75 - lets see if i get it

3/9/2009 10:41:35 AM

I changed my strategy to writing some covered calls. They aren't trading for much but options expire in less than 2 weeks. If the market ignites and I get called away at 4, I'll be fine banking my 1k profit on this play. If not, my cost basis is at 2.30.


Jeez, FAS volume already at 108 million.

3/9/2009 10:44:10 AM

also, what time is Obama going on TV talking about stem cells?


picked up some ASTM @ .49



[Edited on March 9, 2009 at 10:49 AM. Reason : hope as a viable investment thesis ]

3/9/2009 10:44:41 AM

wtf just happened to FITB?

also, STI looks as if it was the money play of the day. its staying relatively stable all the way through. I think today will still end up, just that a lot of people who bought in at these stocks mid last week are selling to minimize their losses. and its getting bought up. if anyone is looking at a TA chart right now let me know if you see some massive top tail

3/9/2009 10:51:47 AM

Odd thing, I have some March 50 puts on FAZ that are up 30% today with FAZ only down 5%.

3/9/2009 11:56:27 AM

^ yeah, that's the expectation for a rally this week imo. Options prices have a lot of swing to them.

3/9/2009 12:12:26 PM

missed the FAS 2.69 again lol. oh well.

seriously? a rally?

3/9/2009 12:19:11 PM

that temporary rally would be on the back of a near term halting of mark to market rules for bank balance sheets

3/9/2009 12:29:37 PM

^, yes indeed it would. whatever it takes to do so. I need to reset my shorts

3/9/2009 1:18:44 PM

today is oddly lateral. everything seems to be hitting a threshold it can't cross.

3/9/2009 1:54:28 PM

It's the lunchtime lull. Just wait till this afternoon.

3/9/2009 2:25:02 PM

(for now at least) The banks are holding up while the rest of the market has continued the sell off? Bizarro day.

3/9/2009 3:22:07 PM

in at 2.65 - hope i don't lose my shirt in the next 30 minutes

3/9/2009 3:26:21 PM

Quote :

" Are you literally going to short the stock? Ie, sale shares?"

yes.

As for FAS, i got stopped out but still managed to walk away with a profit, so its a win as far as I am concerned. If this week is going to turn out to be a waiting game I'm sort of happy i'm out of FAS, and only in FITB.

I sort of want to pull the FAS late buy and rely on the gap up for a quick marginal profit or ride it up tomorrow if it continues to gain steam. 2.60 something is a good price.

3/9/2009 3:31:15 PM

this may be a dumb Q, but does a day trade include after hours trades?

3/9/2009 3:33:28 PM

i think so. thats why i'll buy some times buy right at the end of the day and then sell at the gap up or down the next day, it doesn't really count as a day trade if you do that.

i think we'll see some after hours action today. there is nothing major to be seen here today just this whipsaw. its amazing that we're at about -1% and the financials are still mildly up

3/9/2009 3:36:14 PM

the financials holding ground is the scary part about having FAS now hehe

3/9/2009 3:38:47 PM

a day trade is usually considered a trade bought and sold the same day. Scalps are trades usually held only for a few minutes. A swing trade is usually held overnight but can range from a few days to weeks. More than that is considered investing.

[Edited on March 9, 2009 at 3:49 PM. Reason : they mostly come at night. mostly.]

3/9/2009 3:47:44 PM

so i'm not an investor maybe that's why i've done so well considering the markets hehe

3/9/2009 3:48:55 PM

my stem cell trade's not doing shit

3/9/2009 4:02:00 PM

well... here's for bad dreams on FAS tonight

3/9/2009 4:03:00 PM

i'm telling you, shorting SKF is probably your best bet. its not going to return you the quick gains you seek but you'll get more from it than you would a savings account. reasonably you could see 50% returns, assuming it goes down to 120 at some point. which is not an unreasonable suggestion.

3/9/2009 4:15:50 PM

quick 20% on FAS

3/10/2009 8:59:13 AM

Figures...i sell covered calls yesterday and now FAS is up nearly .50 from my entry point in premarket. I contemplated buying them back for .05 cheaper than I sold them for on the event that this happened today.

The good news is my FAZ puts should go up above what I paid for them.

3/10/2009 9:00:14 AM

lets not talk about it until it happens, but personally i hope today goes a little like this...

3/10/2009 9:13:20 AM

bahhh individual bank stocks are higher than FAS

[Edited on March 10, 2009 at 9:32 AM. Reason : ]

3/10/2009 9:28:45 AM

Options are where it's at if you just get them at the right time. I bought some FAZ March 50s for 3.30 last week. They traded at 2.30 yesterday and I just sold out of them for 3.80. It's a teeny profit, but I'd rather learn these lessons while making money than losing it.

3/10/2009 9:57:34 AM

true that.

took a chance at the market open and bought even more FAS at 3.16, seems to be working out so far.



hold til M2M Thursday?

3/10/2009 10:04:48 AM

M2M?

3/10/2009 10:09:20 AM

Mark to Market ?

stop loss on FAS hit at 3.32 - made plenty - may get back in if it dips today.

[Edited on March 10, 2009 at 10:38 AM. Reason : ]

3/10/2009 10:10:49 AM

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/860-More-on-Mark-To-Market.html

3/10/2009 10:52:58 AM

FAS offsets ~12% loss on ASTM

3/10/2009 10:56:35 AM

man i wish if my money sat in TD Ameritrade money market i'd earn more than 0.20% per YEAR. Any other major stock brokers earn 2%+ when you have no stocks?

3/10/2009 11:01:20 AM

thinking about cycling back into a bit of IAU

3/10/2009 12:00:08 PM

if FAS can just managed to make it back to 4 and I get called away on my options, I'll have somehow gone from 30% down to 8% up on this whole endeavor.

3/10/2009 12:00:22 PM

that would be awesome man.

i'm thinking about hitting up FAZ though - will the S&P stay at this level all day??? $715.41

3/10/2009 12:07:12 PM

to answer your question, yes.

however i think it will tumble later this week. there is a lot of good news out there. banks are making profits, peoples mortgages are getting paid, and the bad news is merely the status quo and nothing that is going to shock us down. i don't think we're out of the woods, but we've definitely entered a small clearing.

3/10/2009 12:19:51 PM

wait... people are paying their mortgages? are you sure?

3/10/2009 12:23:00 PM

NSFW - sort of

http://www.pehub.com/33760/for-a-truly-alternative-investment-how-about-shares-in-iporn/

3/10/2009 12:25:12 PM

Quote :

"i'm thinking about hitting up FAZ though - will the S&P stay at this level all day??? $715.41"

If it holds all day I'd expect to see a fairly large plunge (1-2%) near the end of the day followed by some pretty quick buying to get back half of whatever it lost to close the day. That seemed to be the trend late last year on days like today, people would want to move to profit before everyone else did and it would cause a tumble. Those that think a new broader bear rally had started would seize on the opportunity to jump in at a discount compared to the rest of the day.

3/10/2009 12:48:11 PM

i, personally, will not be holding anything after tomorrow. going straight to cash and watching what unfolds. we really could have one of those weeks that come every month and a half or so where monday is blah and t - f is money, and then on monday we get a reckoning. so there could be a lot of money to be made all week, but i'll take what i can get.

3/10/2009 12:56:43 PM

yeah i'm being really careful (took my risk last night and it paid). may just try and play the swings this afternoon or tomorrow.

3/10/2009 1:07:37 PM

This is depressing. I was updating my spreadsheet and realized that I was too depressed to update it after the last few big down days, so it doesn't reflect today's rally at all.

Also most of my shares are down $0.10 across the board.

3/10/2009 2:55:33 PM

Color me surprised, the market held on all day with no real head fakes or anything. This is extremely bullish for a few days until we get a sell the rally moment. Some of the defensive plays (AUY for ex) got smashed today, no worries, let this rally play for a day or so and load up on some April calls on them (April 8s on AUY down 40% today).



[Edited on March 10, 2009 at 4:01 PM. Reason : .]

3/10/2009 3:59:37 PM

bought FAZ at 60.80 before close

3/10/2009 4:01:22 PM

You think this is a 1 day thing?

3/10/2009 4:01:56 PM