i appreciate all the effort and thought you put into this, but maybe if you put a little more effort and thought into it you would have just said "fuck it, this is preposterous"

5/17/2011 11:12:35 AM

stern felt sorry for cleveland

5/17/2011 8:53:11 PM

i took a nap after work so im a little late posting but the math had dallas winning this series 60% of the time, with the most likely scenario being Dallas in 7.

The line last I saw was dallas -220 and OKC +170 which is just a preposterous amount of juice and makes me think vegas was scared to get hammered on this series. Anyway that's such a small amount of value on OKC that it wasnt really worth betting it (40% = +150).

So far it looks like OKC can't guard Dirk either so that could be a huge problem. Durant is scoring at will too but he's not as consistent as Dirk and I think Dallas has a better chance of slowing him down a few games.

Also, just wanted to say OKC's bench is very underrated. Maynor has been very impressive in the playoffs and Collison was huge last series. Harden obviously has been killing it and Cook had a few impressive games. That's really their advantage against Dallas if this series goes deep and Dallas wears down.

Also, I think it's a bit of a stretch to bring one of the greatest players of all-time off the bench. In reality they get much better by simply inserting Mike Miller in the lineup and they need to do that immediately. He had an instant impact in game 1 when he came in and grabbed rebounds in traffic, which is exactly what they need to neutralize Chicago's advantage on the glass.

A healthy Haslem would make a world of difference, but clearly he isn't healthy and he doesn't look like a viable option this season.

5/17/2011 10:01:45 PM

Where are all the Russell Westbrook fanboys now?

The guy is only 22 and clearly has a ton of potential. I hope his atrocious postseason doesn't get in his head and stunt his development.

But my god he has just sucked it up hardcore in the playoffs.



Unbelievable performance for Dirk 10-12 FG and 18-18 FT after 3 quarters. Even has 3 blocks. I've been surprised at how poorly Ibaka has played against Memphis/Dallas. Again, he's very young and the guy is going to be a stud eventually I think but I thought he was already much better than this.

[Edited on May 17, 2011 at 11:14 PM. Reason : a]

5/17/2011 11:07:19 PM

nice acting by harden

[Edited on May 17, 2011 at 11:27 PM. Reason : barea > robinson]

5/17/2011 11:10:56 PM

JJ and Dirk doing work.

5/17/2011 11:30:15 PM

I'm a Dirk fan, but it sucks that apparently you're not allowed to breathe of him without drawing a foul.

5/17/2011 11:53:10 PM

24-24 from the line for Dirk. that's damn good.

5/17/2011 11:54:04 PM

talk about being overshadowed


Durant had 40 and went 18-19 from FT

5/17/2011 11:54:36 PM

^^^ In fairness, OKC was given 7 more FTA in a home game for Dallas. The game was called pretty damn tight on both ends. I hate watching those type of games.

[Edited on May 17, 2011 at 11:55 PM. Reason : a]

5/17/2011 11:55:13 PM

I'll admit I only caught about 20 minutes of game time, but a lot of the fouls I saw in favor of OKC were either during slashing plays or during a lot of contact around screens. In the third quarter there were about three plays in a row with Dirks back to the basket, not even making a basketball move, and a quick whistle being blown.

I agree though that this was a ridiculously tight called game especially considering neither team is known as being chippy.

5/18/2011 12:06:32 AM

There are players from both teams that are chippy, though - Perkins, Westbrook, and to a lesser extent, Sefolosha and Collison from OKC; Chandler and Terry from Dallas.

Dirk is amazing. They definitely called a few touch fouls on Dirk's defender. But my god...run an extra guy at him more than once a quarter. Just get the damn ball out of his hands if you want to win.

5/18/2011 12:33:43 AM

one of the few guys in the nba I think could actually guard dirk somewhat would have been lamar odom but the best coach of all time wouldn't try it, maybe try durant now if his wingspan is as crazy as people think, you've got to find some way to disrupt dirk's shot

5/18/2011 1:54:48 AM

I wonder if Taj Gibson/Noah/Boozer can guard Dirk.

I'm surprised Ibaka couldn't do a better job than that, but again he's really young.



We're entering historical territory here look at his fucking postseason stats...

50% FG, 60% 3-pt, 90% FT, 26.5 ppg


Sure, his all around game isn't nearly as effective as he was in his prime when he was a big time rebounder/shot blocker with a knack for getting steals. And he's always been an efficient high-volume scorer but my god 50/60/90? Even Steve Nash was never quite that ridiculous and he was a defensive liability which Dirk really is not.

His ast/to ratio is dropping like all older scorers but it's not dropping off a cliff like Kobe's is because Dirk never relied on athleticism as much for creating his baskets in the first place. This guy seriously has a chance to be averaging 20 ppg for the next 3-4 seasons if his body doesn't breakdown which would put him in seriously elite scoring company.

5/18/2011 2:35:29 AM

better conference finals performance? Lebron v. Detroit in '07 or Dirk v. OK City tonight?

5/18/2011 2:49:27 AM

Id have to recheck the numbers from the Lebron game but I think the 1 on 5 feeling of the Lebron game is what made that so legendary. This game was more of a dirk vs durant duel.

Also this wasn't a must win swing game like Lebrons

5/18/2011 4:15:22 AM

my last post I was half asleep when posting so may have been incoherent but it seems like teams are trying to guard him with post players who play off him too much, maybe try something different and get a small forward with very good size (odom, durant) and just try to face guard him aggressively, no clue if it would work and I would rather it not since this is awesome and I'd like to dallas to win the title but I would try something different

5/18/2011 3:48:01 PM

they put durant on him. two reach-in fouls in about 10 seconds.

5/18/2011 4:59:57 PM

Dirk's fadeaway is pretty much unguardable

defenses need to do a better job of either denying him the ball, or immediately being in his face...Pau Gasoft routinely doubled off Dirk leaving him wide open jumpers and that was obviously a failure...but neither Pau nor Odom could guard him 1 on 1 in the first place

they need to get him in foul trouble, but as I said as soon as the Lakers were eliminated, go ahead and pencil Dallas in the NBA Finals

5/18/2011 5:12:50 PM

lol keep a guy constantly behind dirk so when he does his fadeaway, they can block the shot as he goes up for it

5/18/2011 5:14:31 PM

Tom Style, remember that kid

5/18/2011 5:21:36 PM

i think his release point was beneath his chin

5/18/2011 5:24:56 PM

Dallas-OKC is not over, Dallas was not a huge favorite. It's about 68% Dallas now to win the series.

Nowitzki almost shot a perfect game and his supporting cast wasn't bad (Barea?!) either. That was the third best overall performance of the playoffs this year (Chris Paul in Game 1 and 4 were the top two) and the 2nd best postseason offensive performance in the last 20 years behind Charles Barkley's 56 point monster in 1994 vs Golden State.

In the meantime Westbrook, Collison, and Maynor were total garbage (nerves?) which you can't expect to happen most games. Ibaka will learn from the film and do a better job against Dirk going forward. And Harden wasn't nearly as effective as we saw against Memphis.

OKC is a young team and they hung around in a game where Nowitzki's performance would have completely sunk most people.

I still think Dallas will win obviously, but it's not over yet.

[Edited on May 18, 2011 at 6:32 PM. Reason : a]

5/18/2011 6:31:59 PM

its over

5/18/2011 6:50:36 PM

Dallas played the offensive game of their lives and still won by single digits

Anyone who thinks this isn't going 6 o7 is fucked in the head

5/18/2011 6:52:11 PM

lol at Dallas scoring 121 points being "the offensive game of their lives"

Dirk might've played the offensive game of his life, but you can't expect Peja to shoot 1-8 every game or Kidd and Chandler to combine for 6 points either

5/18/2011 6:55:11 PM

I'm sorry but there is no way Jason Kidd/JJ Barea is going to annihilate Westbrook/Maynor every game like that.

Nowitzki is a great scorer but he is a ~25 ppg guy not a 48 point guy. I highly doubt he has another game like that this series.

Perkins actually had a solid game (finally) so if they can get the PG play turned around, better defense out of Ibaka, and Harden returns to form then OKC can definitely still win this series.

They really wore Memphis out over the course of that series and Dallas is much older than Memphis was. Dallas had 8 days off for this series, they won't be so well rested when we get to games 5,6,7.

5/18/2011 7:06:47 PM

Perkins had a solid game? 7 points, 5 rebounds, 2 fouls in 28 minutes with a -14 +/- is a solid game?

And I, too, doubt Nowitzki has that caliber of game, but in case you haven't noticed, nobody in this years playoffs has had an answer for him...what makes you think he'll score less than 30 in any game this series? Unless somebody like Terry goes off again and Dirk doesn't need to score 30

5/18/2011 7:10:59 PM

3/4 FG, 1/2 FT, 7 pts, 5 reb, 2 ast, 1 stl, 0 to, and only two fouls in 28 minutes.

Compared to what he's offered thus far in the playoffs that's solid. He's been horrible in prior games. "Solid" meaning he wasn't total dogshit like he was against Memphis.

44%, 4 ppg, 6 reb, 0.7 ast, 0.7 stl, 0.3 blk and 1.7 turnovers against Memphis. That's fucking awful and they may as well play Mohammed if he reverts to that again.



Dirk was averaging 26 ppg in the postseason prior to last night. He's been great offensively no doubt. But OKC can still beat Dallas with Dirk scoring 25-30. Dallas is really more of a defensive team than some offensive juggernaut this year. And their defense didn't prove it can stop Durant yet. Even though Westbrook has had a horrible postseason, last night was something of an aberration as he usually isn't the worst player on the court.

[Edited on May 18, 2011 at 7:21 PM. Reason : a]

5/18/2011 7:17:11 PM

wow 1/2 from the free throw line! solid!

and what a per! if you played him 48 minutes he'd be approaching a double double!

5/18/2011 7:18:41 PM

Dude, his wp/48 was .110 and .100 is average.

Getting an above average game from a big man that has been putting up negative scores throughout the playoffs certainly qualifies as solid. You're not going to win this.


Here I'll prove OKC still has a chance to win this series. I wouldn't do this if they didn't.


Straight Wager 05/18/11 19:24 ET
bet 200.00 to win 600.00 Result: Pending

NBA Playoff Series Prices - Best of 7 Games (2-2-1-1-1)
Thunder
Mavericks 05/30/11(20:00 ET)
Thunder +300

5/18/2011 7:25:44 PM

here, i'll prove OKC doesn't have a chance

Dallas was 2-1 against OKC in the regular season...in the one loss, Dirk...didn't play! in one win, he played only 11 minutes...in the most recent regular season matchup, Dirk dropped 34 on them

the thing is, Durant has the best physical tools to guard Dirk of anyone on their team, but he just isn't a smart enough defensive player yet so playing him on Dirk is just gonna get Durant in foul trouble...and if Durantula is in foul trouble, the Thunder have zero chance of winning

I'll give the Thunder one win in Oklahoma City and the Mavericks a 4-1 series win

although thats going out on a limb since the Thunder are 0-2 against them in OKC this year

5/18/2011 7:28:06 PM

Whoever introduced Martin to non-traditional stats a few months ago should be ashamed of themselves. Dude is quite obviously lost.

5/18/2011 7:31:29 PM

Why hasn't Dallas done anything in the playoffs the past 5 years since Dirk can score 48 every game. Jesus, you'd think he's the messiah or something.

He was unbelievable last night. Great. It was still a relatively close game. Did you miss Durant having 40?

Did you notice their roster is 40 years old?

I mean damn it's not like I don't respect Dallas I had significant money on them to beat Portland when no one thought they would. I had $100 on them to beat LA when no one thought they would. I put extra money on them to beat LAL in game 4 when people said "Fear Kobe".

They are a good team.

So is Oklahoma City. They can win.

5/18/2011 7:32:09 PM

Why hasn't OKC/Seattle done anything in the playoffs the past 5 years since Durant can score 40 every game?

and Dirk isn't the messiah, he's the perfect genetically engineered Aryan soldier

but anyway, we'll have to wait for game 2 and see how that plays out to further argue that series

speaking of the relevant series, ie tonight's game, how many points does the best player in the NBA drop? I say Rose scores 31 and has 9 dimes

5/18/2011 7:35:08 PM

I'm not sure I said Durant can score 40 every game or that they need him to score 40.

In fact, I'm positive I said that I think OKC will play better because it was out of character for Westbrook, Collison, and Maynor to all be so horrible last game.

Obviously, OKC needs to do a better job on Dirk next game. Something makes me think he won't replicate a 24-24 FT game again this series.

Dallas is a 2:1 favorite to win this series right now. Not a 3:1

5/18/2011 7:41:04 PM

5/18/2011 7:50:35 PM

Huge Chi-Mia game tonight.

Miami wants to believe it's on them to perform, but in reality this series is the Bulls to win or lose.

They can generate enough stops against Miami that they just need to have 3-4 more solid offensive games where they don't allow Miami to force turnovers and get transition points.

I have a feeling Spoelstra will realize his mistake of benching Mike Miller and play him much more tonight which definitely gives Miami a better shot.

On the flip side I feel like the Bulls will have figured out that they need Brewer over Korver to neutralize that advantage.

If Haslem has anything in the tank he could sway the series but I just can't imagine that he can be productive after sitting for so long against Chicago's world class frontline.

Deng was an absolute monster last game, if he keeps that up (kinda unlikely) then Miami really has no chance in this series.


There's really only two things that I know for certain, I will be drunk and I will be watching.

[Edited on May 18, 2011 at 7:58 PM. Reason : a]

5/18/2011 7:56:40 PM

Oh Lebron has a built-in excuse, I mean a cold

5/18/2011 8:02:55 PM

You guys were right. I have no idea what I'm talking about.

OH BABY LUOL DENG IN YOUR FACE MOTHERFUCKERS

[Edited on May 18, 2011 at 9:06 PM. Reason : a]

5/18/2011 9:06:26 PM

Miller with a 35 foot heave. Thoughts, face?

edit: refs are jobbing the shit out of the bulls, this is ridiculous.

[Edited on May 18, 2011 at 9:10 PM. Reason : .]

5/18/2011 9:10:25 PM

Jordan is laughing his ass off at Lebrons and his cold.

5/18/2011 9:13:31 PM

anyone know of a stream of the game?

5/18/2011 9:13:50 PM

Lebron is the 3rd best player in the series

wow that commercial was gay as hell

5/18/2011 9:20:12 PM

Wow, as a Bulls bettor there's a couple things I don't like about the first half of Game 2.

#1 The bulls are getting "reffed to death". It's already hard enough to win in the NBA, there's a very slim margin between winning and losing. When the refs pick a side like that it takes extra points to overcome them.

#2 Haslem was effective. 4 rebounds and 2 assists in 9 minutes? Yikes.

#3 The fake coach of the year played Korver/Bogans for 15 minutes and Brewer for 7. If he can't figure out something this basic, why are we giving him credit for defensive schemes? This is fucking basketball, defense was figured out 30 years ago trust me. There's only 5 players on the court.

#4 Mike Miller had another 7 productive minutes. If Spoelstra figures out how valuable his 4th best player is, this series becomes even real fast.

#5 No one actually thought D.Rose was a legitimate MVP or even a top 10 candidate really (excluding the message board posters) but he's doing what he can to prove it by playing suboptimal basketball for the 14th playoff game in a row. Ew. You would think the MVP winner no matter how unwarranted it was could do something against a 35 year old Mike Bibby.



Halftime Conclusion:

As a Bulls bettor. You just have to hope the Bulls start playing defense, let Brewer play, and their depth comes into play as the game goes on.

In the first half Miami didn't really have to work for baskets, so I doubt Bosh, Lebron, and Wade are tired this time.

5/18/2011 9:52:35 PM

Nene got snubbed in the MVP voting

5/18/2011 9:55:25 PM

Is 19, 12 and 4 on nearly 60% shooting in a blowout win really suboptimal? Because that's what he had during the closeout game against the Hawks.

[Edited on May 18, 2011 at 9:57 PM. Reason : x]

5/18/2011 9:57:19 PM

Nene did have a monster year, clearly one of the elite PF's but he definitely wasn't on an MVP level.

I respect your NBA knowledge on occasion, but sometimes you are really off base.

The MVP was either Lebron, Howard, Wade, or Love this year. No one else ever entered as a legitimate argument.

Now if Chris Paul ever gets healthy, I'll agree he has a great chance.



^ That was an exaggeration by saying the 14th game in a row, he did actually have 2-3 good games. But it is a fact D.Rose hasn't asserted himself as one of the top NBA players in the regular season or the postseason in 2011, period.





[Edited on May 18, 2011 at 10:00 PM. Reason : a]

5/18/2011 9:58:12 PM

Quote :

"No one actually thought D.Rose was a legitimate MVP or even a top 10 candidate really"

is this before or after he won MVP? i don't even know where to start. i understand your argument, i just think it's asinine.

^also the best player on the worst team should never be considered for MVP

[Edited on May 18, 2011 at 10:00 PM. Reason : .]

5/18/2011 9:58:54 PM

Rose led his team to the best record in the NBA, including sweeping the Heat, certainly he deserves to be in the MVP conversation

after all, Wade and Lebron combined could neither lead their team to a better record, nor ever beat the Bulls head to head

even someone who watches the statline more than the actual game like yourself can see that can't you?

5/18/2011 10:00:16 PM