jonnySim, you going to be in town the first week on Jan?

12/21/2006 2:03:44 PM

oh man, now my post will get missed.


---------rectified

Quote :

"First off, I realize in the long run this system doesn't work. No betting system works in the long run. I'm simply saying, given a high enough betting ceiling, you can reduce the chance of going broke significantly. Let's assume you're starting with a $1 bet and the max bet is $100. Using a Martingale system you stand to lose the following with each loss. 1 loss - $1 2 losses - $3 3 losses - $7 4 losses - $15 5 losses - $31 6 losses - $63 Assume everytime you win $1 you set it aside and restart. Statistically speaking only one time in 64 are you going to suffer 6 straight losses. That reduces the risk substantially. Now try performing the same system with a $1000 max bet. Now you have to lose 9 in a row to bust out. In the long run you will bust out enough to cancel out your winnings. I knew that was the case, but I didn't know why. Thanks for the article David0603. "

you've still got fundamental flaws.

First off, if you lose 6 in a row, its not $100, its $120. You'd have effectively busted your system in 5 loses, since you couldnt afford another spin if you limited to $100.

Whered you get 1:64?


You are attempting to ignore house edge in your calculations also, which in this case makes a difference.

its what, 38 spots on a layout? (from memory)

2 green, 18 black 18 red.


so, therefore each specific event you have a 47.368% chance of winning, with a 52.632% chance of losing.


(0.52632)^2 = 0.2771 ~27.7%

(0.52632)^3 = 0.1458 ~14.58 %

(0.52632)^4 = 0.0767 ~7.67 %

(0.52632)^5 = 0.0404 ~4.04%


looks more like 1:25 to me.

and each specific spin is a brand new event, so technically, even if you've lost 500 straight spins, its still a
4% chance that you'll lose the next 5.

a 4% occurance with such a small sample size is a relatively low sigma event also, due tot he nature of variance
and discrete outcomes.

do you know how long 25 spins lasts on a roulette table?

about 80 minutes tops.

you're better off to avoid the variance and just play normal bets if you are just trying to enjoy yourself. suck up the house edge, and consider that paying for your drinks.

so on a $10 table, paying one bet, you're still going to lose ~$0.50 per spin, or upwards of $15/hr.

whaturr.

The interesting part about martingaling comes in with the situation that busting out actually saves you money, and it could be argued that busting actually saves you money, even for when you would have won the next spin. (not saying that youre saving -ev by not betting, lol, thats fucking obvious) Thats where the concepts start to get fuzzy.


There's tons more that could be said aboutt his, perhaps ill get into some of it if this is still going when i get home from work.

[Edited on December 21, 2006 at 2:01 PM. Reason : e]

[Edited on December 21, 2006 at 2:10 PM. Reason : wikiwiki]

12/21/2006 2:04:28 PM

yeah, I hate it when that happens, just copy it to the top of the new page

12/21/2006 2:05:30 PM

man i keep getting some b.s. out draw right before the $

12/21/2006 10:20:46 PM

anyone in raleigh want to get a game going tonight?

12/22/2006 4:39:37 PM

nah, packing for trip to Tampa. How long you in town?

12/22/2006 4:46:35 PM

i would be down if i was there.

decided not to worry about comming to raleigh tonight, and am just gonna drive home in the am

12/22/2006 4:49:53 PM

ill be in town until tomorrow.

12/22/2006 5:49:02 PM

You guys should check out mansion poker if you play online, they got 100% signup bonus up to $1000. And they have added $250,000 to tournament prize pools over the holiday season. Lots of good poker site reviews can be found at http://propokerbonuses.com

12/22/2006 6:12:06 PM

mmmm spammmy

12/22/2006 6:16:49 PM

ok so ive spent the last few hours reading this brandi hawbaker shit,

and all i can say is



GODDAMN


i mean, offering anal sex for sat. seats, jesus christ

[Edited on December 22, 2006 at 7:24 PM. Reason : e]

12/22/2006 7:23:50 PM

wait a minute, i think hish may know one of these guys that is a central figure in this soap opera

12/22/2006 7:39:04 PM

what are you talking about?

12/22/2006 8:53:59 PM

there is a 500 page thread on 2+2 about it.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=gossip&Number=8493754&page=0&fpart=all

theres an overview, some drama that has gone down since sept.

the guy who won the borgata event has a key role,

her busting a stars account for 30k without his notice for one, he seemed to take up for her, and then got completely used

shes pretty hot too, but a complete nutjob.

12/22/2006 8:57:26 PM

yea, went to school with newhouse.

12/22/2006 8:58:50 PM

haha

12/22/2006 9:08:35 PM

hish, im sorry to rain on your parade,

but who has the bigger tits here?




howard or annie?

btw, im not quite sure i like the connotations of this:

12/22/2006 11:06:16 PM

god damn, was he always that big?

12/22/2006 11:07:34 PM

Ill post a losing hand. Nice huh?

PokerStars Game #7573728726: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2) - 2006/12/23 - 16:37:35 (ET)
Table 'Lomia II' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 2: MisterX ($110.35 in chips)
Seat 4: blime ($192.70 in chips)
Seat 5: jdmorri ($145.10 in chips)
Seat 6: IUP61 ($141.20 in chips)
Seat 7: GenetikFreak ($272.10 in chips)
Seat 8: The Hish 24 ($168.95 in chips)
GenetikFreak: posts small blind $1
The Hish 24: posts big blind $2
honda954: sits out
nash84: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to The Hish 24 [3h 6h]
MisterX: folds
blime: folds
jdmorri: folds
IUP61: raises $4 to $6
GenetikFreak: calls $5
The Hish 24: calls $4
*** FLOP *** [3s Jh Qh]
GenetikFreak: checks
The Hish 24: checks
Cevan8 joins the table at seat #3
IUP61: checks
*** TURN *** [3s Jh Qh] [Ah]
GenetikFreak: bets $8
The Hish 24: raises $17 to $25
IUP61: folds
GenetikFreak: raises $25 to $50
The Hish 24: raises $112.95 to $162.95 and is all-in
GenetikFreak said, "i have nuts"
GenetikFreak: calls $112.95
*** RIVER *** [3s Jh Qh Ah] [2s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
GenetikFreak: shows [Kh Th] (a Royal Flush)
The Hish 24: mucks hand
GenetikFreak collected $340.90 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $343.90 | Rake $3
Board [3s Jh Qh Ah 2s]
Seat 2: MisterX folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: blime folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: jdmorri folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: IUP61 (button) folded on the Turn
Seat 7: GenetikFreak (small blind) showed [Kh Th] and won ($340.90) with a Royal Flush
Seat 8: The Hish 24 (big blind) mucked [3h 6h]

12/23/2006 4:39:56 PM

wtf hish

12/23/2006 4:59:57 PM

damn, was that Howard Lederer? He really let himself go. Or maybe it was in the past. From wiki:

Quote :

"A long-time vegetarian, Lederer once won a $10,000 proposition bet by eating a cheeseburger. Lederer became a vegetarian after having gastric bypass surgery to lose weight. One of his nicknames (given to him by Doyle Brunson) was "bubba", which was shortened to "bub" after Lederer lost the weight."

12/23/2006 5:23:55 PM

Playing at a table with LEGGGYYYY right now.

PokerStars Game #7575554872: Tournament #38437493, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2006/12/23 - 18:46:17 (ET)
Table '38437493 59' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: The Hish 24 (4030 in chips)
Seat 2: vadhara (1500 in chips)
Seat 4: reddragon55 (1320 in chips)
Seat 5: king$STARS (18120 in chips)
Seat 6: legggggggggy (9390 in chips)
Seat 7: huntt (1500 in chips)
Seat 8: chipper3286 (8895 in chips)
Seat 9: Sevillano (4235 in chips)
chipper3286: posts small blind 50
Sevillano: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to The Hish 24 [2h 2d]
huntt re-buys and receives 1500 chips for $5.00
The Hish 24: raises 3930 to 4030 and is all-in
vadhara: folds
reddragon55: folds
king$STARS: folds
legggggggggy: raises 5360 to 9390 and is all-in
huntt: calls 1500 and is all-in
chipper3286: folds
Sevillano: folds
*** FLOP *** [7s 3d 7d]
*** TURN *** [7s 3d 7d] [2c]
*** RIVER *** [7s 3d 7d 2c] [8s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
The Hish 24: shows [2h 2d] (a full house, Deuces full of Sevens)
legggggggggy: shows [Ks As] (a pair of Sevens)
The Hish 24 collected 5060 from side pot
huntt: shows [Tc Qh] (a pair of Sevens)
The Hish 24 collected 4650 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 9710 Main pot 4650. Side pot 5060. | Rake 0
Board [7s 3d 7d 2c 8s]
Seat 1: The Hish 24 showed [2h 2d] and won (9710) with a full house, Deuces full of Sevens
Seat 2: vadhara folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: reddragon55 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: king$STARS folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: legggggggggy showed [Ks As] and lost with a pair of Sevens
Seat 7: huntt (button) showed [Tc Qh] and lost with a pair of Sevens
Seat 8: chipper3286 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: Sevillano (big blind) folded before Flop

12/23/2006 6:47:39 PM

Officially done with online poker and hopefully poker in general. I hope I can turn out like Ben and just become a bar rat.

BLAHHHHHHH for days like this.

12/24/2006 1:53:34 AM

im done with lower limits, which is kinda sad b/c i will miss seeing all the people at the 1/3 games

12/24/2006 4:41:07 AM

Quote :

" hope I can turn out like Ben and just become a bar rat"

12/24/2006 9:52:49 AM

Is that picture really what Howard and Annie look like now? Or is that an old picture? I've had a massive crush on Annie for quite some time now, and don't want to have my fantasy ruined

12/25/2006 9:37:06 AM

think its a few years old when annie was preggers

Quote :

"in 2000, Annie finished the Main Event in 10th place, one spot short of the final table, while she was eight months pregnant with her third child"

yep 6 years ago.


[Edited on December 25, 2006 at 10:05 AM. Reason : .]

12/25/2006 10:04:10 AM

meh.


in nc.


anything interesting?

12/26/2006 3:03:36 AM

you feel like playin cards on thurs ben?

12/26/2006 11:51:10 PM

that could work.

lemme know.

im probably going to greenville tonight, then may come up to raleigh tommorow.

got to meet up with some people for a bit, but then afterwards

12/27/2006 11:41:44 AM

maybe we can get jon to put a game together or something

12/27/2006 2:53:04 PM

reading 2+2 gave me a headache... ugh

some of these number-crunching people scare me and I'm a damn statistics major

12/27/2006 4:58:44 PM

played on stars last night for the first time in months.

wow.

1/2/2007 10:40:35 AM

Well, I am currently in Tennessee(family reasons) and I found out that Tunica is hosting the World Poker Tour and I am thinking of going South.

I found out that the casinos are about 45 min away.

1/2/2007 10:46:14 AM

make sure you get into some of those no limit lowball games

heeeehaww

1/2/2007 11:14:21 AM

i just read that jamie gold is on this seasons high stakes poker. i cant wait to see that.

1/2/2007 3:45:17 PM

my episodes premier in april.

just wait till you see this bluff i put on esfandari

1/2/2007 4:20:04 PM

^?

1/2/2007 4:39:32 PM

PokerStars Game #7733452186: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/01/02 - 18:24:43 (ET)
Table 'Chromios' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: nukefish ($20.65 in chips)
Seat 2: RipleyBogle ($53.50 in chips)
Seat 3: wx22z ($50.55 in chips)
Seat 4: rabco ($56.80 in chips)
Seat 5: A1141 ($168.35 in chips)
Seat 7: el Sinep ($44.25 in chips)
Seat 8: The Hish 24 ($100.80 in chips)
Seat 9: bpward50 ($63.80 in chips)
nukefish: posts small blind $0.50
RipleyBogle: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to The Hish 24 [5s 5d]
wx22z: folds
rabco: folds
A1141: folds
el Sinep: folds
The Hish 24: calls $1
bpward50: raises $3 to $4
nukefish: folds
RipleyBogle: folds
The Hish 24: calls $3
*** FLOP *** [5h 5c 2d]
The Hish 24: checks
bpward50: bets $5
The Hish 24: calls $5
*** TURN *** [5h 5c 2d] [6c]
The Hish 24: checks
bpward50: bets $15
The Hish 24: calls $15
*** RIVER *** [5h 5c 2d 6c] [As]
The Hish 24: bets $25
bpward50: folds
el Sinep is sitting out
The Hish 24 collected $47.10 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $49.50 | Rake $2.40
Board [5h 5c 2d 6c As]
Seat 1: nukefish (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: RipleyBogle (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: wx22z folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: rabco folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: A1141 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: el Sinep folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: The Hish 24 collected ($47.10)
Seat 9: bpward50 (button) folded on the River

1/2/2007 6:27:10 PM

standard?

1/2/2007 7:00:10 PM

standard

1/2/2007 7:28:05 PM

yes!!!! i am standard!!!!

1/2/2007 7:33:01 PM

dont mind me, im just pwn'n The Dude

1/2/2007 8:33:08 PM

^haha, taking $15 from me is nothing

i'll give it an a half hour before i'm up again

1/2/2007 8:36:02 PM

you dont know who you're fucking with

btw, since im nice

Dealt to pilgrimshoes [2c Ac]
The Hish 24 said, "filter bot"
A1141: folds
Monarch44: folds
Shostyfive: folds
The Hish 24: folds
switch3d: folds
Wiyada: calls $1
NCWolfpack44: raises $2 to $3
eidisen: folds
pilgrimshoes: calls $2
Wiyada: folds
*** FLOP *** [Tc Qd As]
pilgrimshoes: checks
NCWolfpack44: bets $5
pilgrimshoes: calls $5
*** TURN *** [Tc Qd As] [Jh]
pilgrimshoes: checks
NCWolfpack44: bets $8
pilgrimshoes: raises $16 to $24
NCWolfpack44: folds
pilgrimshoes collected $31.90 from pot
pilgrimshoes: doesn't show hand


standard.

1/2/2007 8:38:08 PM

now im just fucking around

1/2/2007 8:40:57 PM

^i had Q-9

position raise


do you raise everytime you have the button Hish?

1/2/2007 9:05:15 PM

no...how many hands have you seen me play? i play to make money at these levels, not to win.

1/2/2007 9:07:58 PM

i'm getting absolutely nothing right now

1/2/2007 9:11:00 PM

you and me both brother

1/2/2007 9:11:27 PM