15

7/3/2008 9:40:52 AM

http://www.tulsaworld.com/business/article.aspx?articleID=20080703_45_E1_hLABOR860902

The economy is impressive, AA is only going to have to lay off 900, not close the doors entirely! Is that how we are defining impressive?

7/3/2008 9:49:08 AM

This thread is a giant trap.

7/3/2008 5:28:00 PM

7/3/2008 6:49:21 PM

giant-er

7/3/2008 7:20:04 PM

this thread is better with ALT-F4

7/3/2008 9:20:16 PM

^i remember i fell for that in 2004 once

7/4/2008 1:53:39 AM

I suppose it's impressive that we didn't have fuel riots when diesel went up like hell in the last several years. You know, truckers blocking all the national highways, fishermen blockading seaports and the like.

That's more along the lines of The Impressive U.S. Society though. For all the gloom and doom the news media tries to shove up everybody's ass on a daily basis, I think it's pretty impressive that businesses aren't being even more frugal than they already are (more layoffs, more productivity-boosting management techniques that suck ass for workers, pay reductions, etc).

7/4/2008 2:09:52 AM

This thread deserve a bump for the collapse of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae

7/11/2008 10:44:23 AM

I was going to do it yesterday for that very reason but I forgot.

7/11/2008 11:15:06 AM

7/14/2008 12:28:56 PM

At least our friends in Big Oil are making $Texas

7/14/2008 9:33:58 PM

Ever heard of the S&L crisis of the 1980s and 1990s when nearly 800 savings and loan associations failed? Of course you haven't. We survived that--you people don't know hard times and aren't used to any hiccups in life whatsoever.

The fact of the matter is that Americans have had it so good for so long that some of you don't know anything other than "good." The fundamentals of our economy--and Freddie and Fannie, for that matter--are strong and continue to be impressive.

Quote :

"'These institutions are fundamentally sound and strong,' Dodd said at a news conference. 'There is no reason for the kind of (stock market) reaction we're getting.'"

Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-CT, chair of the Senate Banking Committee

http://uk.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUKL115885420080712?feedType=RSS

You dumbasses.

BTW, thanks for the fuckup, Chuck, D-NY!

The $4 Billion Senator

Quote :

"The federal takeover of IndyMac Bank over the weekend could cost the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. between $4 billion and $8 billion. But Senator Chuck Schumer, who helped to precipitate the collapse by publicizing a letter to the bank's regulator last month, has no remorse."

Quote :

"The Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS), whose job it actually was to regulate IndyMac, took a different view. 'The immediate cause of the closing,' the OTS wrote in a press release, 'was a deposit run that began and continued after the public release of a June 26 letter to the OTS and the FDIC from Senator Charles Schumer of New York.' The OTS added: 'In the following 11 business days, depositors withdrew more than $1.3 billion from their accounts.'"

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121607771017452513.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

7/15/2008 5:57:41 AM

These institutions are not doing well. That's why they're having to be bailed out of bankruptcy by the government.

And the fundamental base of our economy - the dollar - hasn't been doing so hot either. I'm thinking that the falling dollar is accounting for at least 75% of our economic troubles right now.

7/15/2008 6:37:36 AM

^ So, Democrat Chris Dodd--chair of the Senate Banking Committee--is a liar and Democrat Chucky "Schmucky" Schumer is just an idiot? Thanks for clearing that up.

7/15/2008 6:42:25 AM

Funny how you agree with whatever the Democrats say whenever it's convenient to your agenda.

7/15/2008 7:01:53 AM

^ Never said I did. Answer the question.

7/15/2008 7:04:17 AM

They're both liars and idiots because they're politicians.

7/15/2008 7:05:53 AM

^ So, everybody sucks, huh? [NEW]

[Edited on July 15, 2008 at 7:07 AM. Reason : ]

7/15/2008 7:06:59 AM

What do you want from me?

They're saying that stuff because confidence in the market --> healthy market --> confidence -->health and so on. If either the market or confidence goes down they have a cyclical effect on each other. They'll say whatever they can to help keep confidence up so the market doesn't crash.

As far as banking institutions are concerned however, there is no evidence to suggest that the industry in general is quite fragile right now. If it weren't for the government bailouts that have already taken place, we'd be in a much worse place right now. All that is not without recourse though, as simply creating billions of dollars out of thin air and giving them away has an adverse effect on the value of the dollar, something which is becoming clearer by the day. The banks' mistakes are being paid for by the American citizen through inflation. As long as the government keeps having to bail these companies out, this recession (that we're almost assuredly in right now) will continue.

[Edited on July 15, 2008 at 7:14 AM. Reason : ]

7/15/2008 7:14:09 AM

Quote :

"As far as banking institutions are concerned however, there is no evidence to suggest that the industry in general is quite fragile right now."

Yes, now you have it. Probably 50-150 banks are going to fail over about the next two years. Shit happens.

Quote :

"As long as the government keeps having to bail these companies out, this recession (that we're almost assuredly in right now) will continue."

You can't even see the contradiction--and ultimate truth--in your own statements. Don't you find the fact that given all the shit that has hit the U.S. economy, you--and no one else, for that matter--can definitely say we are in a recession?

Isn't that--in itself--impressive? SAY IT! SAY IT!!!1

[Edited on July 15, 2008 at 7:31 AM. Reason : .]

7/15/2008 7:29:37 AM

Quote :

"I'm thinking that the falling dollar is accounting for at least 75% of our economic troubles right now"

How so?

7/15/2008 7:38:06 AM

^ Yeah, I guess he forgot about exports.

7/15/2008 7:40:45 AM

My fault. I meant to say there is no evidence to suggest anything but the fact that the banks are in trouble right now. And while there's absolutely no way I can prove we're in a recession right now, there's no way you can prove we're not, so it's a moot point.

A falling dollar means that everything costs more. It means inflation. Something we're seeing a lot of right now. The cost of goods is climbing and it's not just things people can go without. Food and energy are climbing at very high levels and those are two basic things that everyone needs. That's just not a good thing.

The dollar is falling (and inflation is going up) because we keep creating more money when we can't even back the money that's already in circulation (loan scandals and shit). We sold all those shitty mortgages to banks in China and when they found out how bad they were, they started selling on the dollar. The only thing that was keeping the dollar relatively stable before was the fact that people still wanted to buy them. Now that we can't back them up, people are selling and it's losing ground to other currencies (much like how the stock market works).

And exports don't mean shit because our trade deficit is very high and still climbing. It doesn't really matter if we're exporting more in $ terms if those dollars are worth less than they were yesterday. No one wants to trade in dollars right now because it doesn't make sense. The dollar falls almost every day. Why would someone want to hang onto them when they're going to be less valuable tomorrow? Especially if you're trading in large volumes. The best thing we had going for us was the fact that the rest of the world had faith in our currency and the banks fucked us over when they gave out all those loans.

As long as the government keeps handing out money that neither they or the country have, the economy is going to keep getting worse before it gets better.

7/15/2008 8:28:02 AM

^

Quote :

"And while there's absolutely no way I can prove we're in a recession right now, there's no way you can prove we're not, so it's a moot point."

Sure I can. Unless we see two quarters in a row of flat or negative growth in the GDP, we're not in a recession--NBER be damned.

Quote :

"Don't you find the fact that given all the shit that has hit the U.S. economy, you--and no one else, for that matter--can definitely say we are in a recession? Isn't that--in itself--impressive?"

Answer my latter question.

[Edited on July 15, 2008 at 8:45 AM. Reason : .]

7/15/2008 8:44:13 AM

No

7/15/2008 8:50:09 AM

^ Resistance is futile.

7/15/2008 8:52:58 AM

Quote :

" FDIC Recap There is $6.84 Trillion in bank deposits. $2.60 Trillion of that is uninsured. Total cash on hand at banks is $273.7 Billion. Huge Potential For Bank Runs If uninsured depositors start asking for cash on the barrelhead, things can get mighty ugly mighty fast. This is pure speculation on my part but I suspect the vast majority of those uninsured deposits are corporate accounts. Going one step further, anyone with a corporate account at a distressed institution better do something about it pronto unless employees will be happy with a delayed paycheck of 50 cents on the dollar. "

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/07/how-much-uninsured-deposits-are-at-risk.html

7/15/2008 8:57:12 AM

No is my answer, not a refusal to answer the question.

7/15/2008 9:08:02 AM

^^ Do most people you know have more than $100,000 in the bank? If they have less than $100K there, they don't have anything to worry about.

^ Yes, I got that. And I don't think you're being honest with me or yourself.

[Edited on July 15, 2008 at 9:09 AM. Reason : .]

7/15/2008 9:08:47 AM

Ok

[Edited on July 15, 2008 at 9:13 AM. Reason : ]

7/15/2008 9:13:33 AM

^ Think of all that has happened and is happening to our economy and it still hasn't tanked. You don't find that impressive at all? Really?

7/15/2008 9:17:04 AM

Not when we're stuck in a situation that could have been easily avoided and we're letting the rest of the world catch up quickly. I don't think there is anything impressive about that.

7/15/2008 9:27:46 AM

^ I have no choice but to take you at your word. But your posts sound more like talking points and/or entrenchment than an actual position to me.

[Edited on July 15, 2008 at 9:35 AM. Reason : .]

7/15/2008 9:34:52 AM

In one sense, six months time will largely flesh out who has the correct impression of the economy.

My opinion is that if you look at the economic models being used, that still show large amounts of, for example, construction jobs being created, you have to wonder how accurate the models are.

Looking at the official information being put out by a lot of governmental sources, then I think the general premise of this thread makes sense, that despite hardships faced the economy has remained resiliant.

Even if you have a more negative view, as I do, you still have to admit we have a robust economy (as I think most people would agree), and that is why we haven't felt more negative impacts more quickly.

However, I also feel that there is a lot more turmoil in the system that a lot of people are either aware of or are letting onto.

Fannie and Freddie own or gaurentee $6 trillion in mortages, half of the nation's total, and have been largely carrying the mortgage industry on their banks for the last year. When you consider that housing prices have declined more than 50% in California, or that WAMU has loan portfolios rated AAA that are 40% 90-days deliquent or worse, its easy to see how we could be talking about a greater than $1 trillion in loss in the value of those mortgages.

The taxpayers are in for some extremely tough decisions, I think, in the next couple of years, over whether we will support government bailouts of that magnitude.

Speaking of FDIC, their reserves are about $50 billion, so if there are large scale bank failures, we're also talking about additional government funding to support those $4.24 trillion in insured deposits.

Finally, as far as most people not caring because of the FDIC limit:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ND7zW-lHwI

[Edited on July 15, 2008 at 9:37 AM. Reason : 'mainly' to 'a lot of']

7/15/2008 9:34:57 AM

U.S. wholesale prices rose sharply in June

Inflation rise over past year fastest pace in over quarter-century

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25686097/

GM announces job cuts, suspends dividend

U.S. automaker will borrow at least $2 billion in to bolster liquidity

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25679520/

[Edited on July 15, 2008 at 9:40 AM. Reason : ]

7/15/2008 9:39:34 AM

^^ This is what I posted:

Quote :

"If they have less than $100K there, they don't have anything to worry about."

Just because most people have nothing to worry about, doesn't mean they won't still. Panic is often irrational.

^ Yes, all sectors are not bowls of cherries. And?

[Edited on July 15, 2008 at 9:40 AM. Reason : .]

7/15/2008 9:39:36 AM

Quote :

"The immediate cause of the closing,' the OTS wrote in a press release, 'was a deposit run that began and continued"

Quote :

"'These institutions are fundamentally sound and strong,' Dodd said at a news conference. 'There is no reason for the kind of (stock market) reaction we're getting."

I don't care one bit about Dodd, but his words could be 100% true and a bank run would still close the bank. The same has been argued for Bear Stearns: no matter how sound an institution is, if people get it in their minds that it is insolvent then they will make it insolvent, another self fullfilling prophecy.

Either way, all these banking problems, every last one of them, goes away if people start buying houses again. So, go get on it!

[Edited on July 15, 2008 at 9:45 AM. Reason : .,.]

7/15/2008 9:43:24 AM

^^ Fair enough. However, behavior like that is both predicatable and problematic, regardless of the FDIC. And, if enough banks go under, the average joe may have valid concerns about what is going to happen with an underfunded FDIC.

[Edited on July 15, 2008 at 9:49 AM. Reason : .]

7/15/2008 9:49:17 AM

Bush holding press conference now.

7/15/2008 10:24:29 AM

^^^ How do you propose people buy houses without credit?

7/15/2008 10:25:51 AM

Quote :

"As long as the government keeps handing out money that neither they or the country have, the economy is going to keep getting worse before it gets better. "

7/15/2008 10:41:12 AM

Quote :

"As long as the government keeps handing out money that neither they or the country have, the economy is going to keep getting worse before it gets better."

Again, they have all the money they could ever need. Afterall, they do own the printing presses.

7/15/2008 10:57:54 AM

Again, The more money they continue to print the more worthless it will become.

7/15/2008 11:01:52 AM

^^ I know you're not that stupid.

7/15/2008 11:09:23 AM

yeah, sorry if i missed some sarcasm

7/15/2008 11:10:24 AM

Good article about the predicament we are in and how we got into this mess (Alan Greenspan, I'm looking in your direction).

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/14/washington/14guarantee.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Quote :

"For a generation, American policy makers have lectured the world on the need to unleash the animal instincts of the market. China’s rickety banks should stop lending to protect state factory jobs, Americans said, and focus on the bottom line. Now the Bush administration is reluctantly concluding that Fannie and Freddie might need to be propped up to protect the American homeowner. During much of Japan’s lost decade of the 1990s, Americans called for an end to its coddling of weak banks. Better to let them keel over, along with the paper tiger companies they sustained. No company was “too big to fail,” Washington said. Yet here, in the aftermath of a financial crisis brought on by what were once called American virtues — financial engineering and risk management — Washington may bail out Fannie and Freddie for the simple reason that they are too big to fail. If they go down, so do whole neighborhoods. So, perhaps, does the global financial system. “The thing we have to do now is to make sure that Fannie and Freddie remain solvent and continue to make loans,” Mr. Baily said. “We just don’t have any choice.” "

[Edited on July 15, 2008 at 12:41 PM. Reason : 2]

7/15/2008 12:37:28 PM

^ Yeah, it's a really tricky balancing act. How do you punish the poor management and reckless risk taking of Fannie and Freddie without bringing the entire economy down with it?

7/15/2008 12:54:22 PM

You can't/we're fucked

7/15/2008 1:01:06 PM

^^ make the loans conditional on firing all the upper level executives. Seriously.

7/15/2008 1:14:03 PM