If it's a double post is it that much more credible?

2/28/2010 8:30:28 AM

lookin like 2-4" is pretty likely.

2/28/2010 11:56:15 PM

^ I'd agree with that. That system is currently spinning through here (North Texas/SW Ok.). I called for just a dusting to an inch over the air here with 3" closer to Lubbock and Abilene.

It looks like once it gets into the Gulf, it gets better organized and deepens quite a bit. Plenty of moisture to work with. It looks like the cold air will be in place by that time. Vertical profile seems to support all snow.

3/1/2010 12:26:05 AM

latest discussion from NWS says "an inch or so" across the region... they are calling for mainly rain/snow mix before midnight....with snow after that.

maybe advisory material, but no watch at this time

3/1/2010 5:37:01 AM

boooooo... I liked this storm so much better when it was "potentially epic"

3/1/2010 9:32:29 AM

There are still quite a few saying "potentially epic." I think this is one of those situations where they have NO idea what's going to happen. Quite a few maps have Raleigh in the heaviest precip, so if it stays snow, and never really transitions back to rain in the afternoon, that could be significant. I hate these situations though, "You're either going to get 2 inches or 2 feet." Seriously, I saw a map that had Raleigh in a 6-12" accumulation, with isolated spots up to 2 feet. Crazy.

3/1/2010 10:06:58 AM

http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-4053-Raleigh-Weather-Examiner~y2010m3d1-Major-southeast-US-winter-storm-on-the-way

Updated just now.



Seems like local mets and the NWS have no clue what this is going to produce.

GFS is much heavier precip than NAM... Should be interesting to watch this unfold.

[Edited on March 1, 2010 at 10:21 AM. Reason : x]

3/1/2010 10:20:59 AM

OK so, what's the time frame that we're supposed to start seeing rain/snow? During the work day, during the drive home, not til overnight??

3/1/2010 10:23:54 AM

okay...no f'n way

3/1/2010 10:24:03 AM

IF (key word) we see snow it'll probably start late afternoon/early evening tomorrow. Still so much uncertainty even <36 hours from go time.

V I wouldn't be...

[Edited on March 1, 2010 at 10:25 AM. Reason : x]

3/1/2010 10:24:42 AM

i am optimistic that my midterm weds night will be cancelled

3/1/2010 10:25:15 AM

Yet again: I don't care either way, and I'll believe all this talk when I start seeing snow

3/1/2010 10:26:26 AM

^^^ what does the 'locally' refer to on the map? I've heard that before, 2-3" expected, 5" locally and was curious what that meant.

Also, thanks for all the input and posts etc. to all those that have contributed.

3/1/2010 10:26:45 AM

It's pretty much exactly what it says. Scattered areas within the 2-3" prediction area will receive more than the predictions but it won't be widespread enough to include that in the general area predictions.

That map is by far the most optimistic I've seen for this area. I just like reading his explanations and it's one of the few places I see that is relevant to our county.

** Oh and just so you know, I don't claim to know anything other than what I read... certainly no meteorologist... i just like snow!

[Edited on March 1, 2010 at 10:37 AM. Reason : and I'm an optimist!]

3/1/2010 10:29:33 AM

We'll probably just get a light dusting of snow. No real accumulation.

3/1/2010 10:51:36 AM

That map is verrrrry optimistic and part of the reason people like reading Allan's stuff. He's allowed to take chances on scenarios such as this one due to his medium.

The issue with this storm is the lack of cold air present at the surface. Right now, it's more or less wholly dependent how strong this storm gets and how soon. It's just not climatologically favored right now to have a major event. A whole lot has to go really right to make this work.

I'd imagine closer to 2 inches is more accurate right now.

3/1/2010 10:55:31 AM

Im gonna go with snow but nothing more than an inch or so on grassy surfaces due to warmer ground temps.

3/1/2010 3:04:17 PM

welp it's official

my guy says it's gonna be a rain event for raleigh

stock up on beer people, we're gonna be snowed in for weeks

3/1/2010 3:34:48 PM

That's odd... I haven't seen a single report calling for an "all rain" event... It's not looking like it'll be much but I'd be surprised if we didn't at least see SOME snow.

3/1/2010 3:58:41 PM

it's his professional opinion based on what he's seen and read. he doesn't just copy one of the forecasts out there and say it's his opinion

3/1/2010 4:09:22 PM

they haven't even issued an advisory yet...

last week (think wednesday/thursday), they issued an advisory and it didn't even do anything until the next morning, and that was spotty and gone in an hour anyway

3/1/2010 4:36:32 PM

NOAA is now saying 1-2 inches

3/1/2010 8:42:44 PM

How much will our higher sun angle have an effect the rain/snow line?

Quote :

"That map is verrrrry optimistic and part of the reason people like reading Allan's stuff. He's allowed to take chances on scenarios such as this one due to his medium. The issue with this storm is the lack of cold air present at the surface. Right now, it's more or less wholly dependent how strong this storm gets and how soon. It's just not climatologically favored right now to have a major event. A whole lot has to go really right to make this work. I'd imagine closer to 2 inches is more accurate right now."

Interesting. Good post.

[Edited on March 1, 2010 at 8:52 PM. Reason : winter cancel]

3/1/2010 8:50:48 PM

i'm stickin with 2-4"

3/2/2010 12:17:27 AM

WRAL is saying it may not even stick to grass unless the precip rate is really high. and roads shouldn't be a problem period.

3/2/2010 5:37:59 AM

3/2/2010 8:16:13 AM

so if wral says it's only going to stick to grassy areas, then we're screwed. We're gonna get at least a foot.

3/2/2010 8:23:34 AM

my guy just sent this out:

Quote :

"The government has issued a winter weather advisory for the area from 9pm this evening until Noon tomorrow. We will see an area of low pressure track off the coast today and this will bring in rain late this morning. As temperatures cool off tonight a changeover to snow can be expected from tonight into tomorrow morning. Just like the system we saw last week, any accumulations will be light and only on grassy surfaces. The roads are expected to just remain wet. Our forecast shows only a trace of an inch of snow, while the government is thinking a trace to 2’’ is possible. Any accumulations we do see should melt rather quickly just as the system we saw last week."

3/2/2010 8:30:02 AM

Timing seems to be the enemy with this one. Precip going to start right in the peak of the temperature today, so the cooling won't be enough to provide any early snow... Probably get a mix tonight and maybe an inch on grass...

V the new NAM gives RDU the most precip of any area I can see... will suck if it's all rain...

[Edited on March 2, 2010 at 9:05 AM. Reason : that map is still really optimistic]

3/2/2010 8:43:55 AM

3/2/2010 9:01:34 AM

I'll see all of you at work tomorrow dont worry

3/2/2010 10:51:28 AM

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=227308&st=200

Thread talking about the storm if anyone is interested... Obviously most of these people are hoping for snow so cling to anything positive... I'm just a lurker and it's really interesting if you have time to read it as it develops.

3/2/2010 11:10:16 AM

anything positive? like positively charged?

3/2/2010 11:11:30 AM

wow, he changed his forecast

Quote :

"The latest computer models are indicating a better chance for accumulating snow through central NC. Rain is currently falling through southern Wake County and it should eventually make its way into the office within the next hour. Snow is being reported from a line from Charlotte into Burlington at this time. This line of snow will eventually move eastward this evening and I’m still thinking the changeover from rain to snow will occur around 9pm. It appears that 1-3’’ of snow could be seen across the Triangle, but if that transition from rain to snow occurs earlier than I’m currently thinking, we could see more. Keep posted."

3/2/2010 12:50:12 PM

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/stormtotal/stormtotal.shtml

currently snowing like crazy here in charlotte

3/2/2010 12:53:51 PM

Interesting reading that thread that I posted, that the NWS is not following any of the big models really with their dusting prediction...

Both the NAM and GFS seem to think RDU is going to be hit pretty good and possibly very good. I'm done. Gotta get some work done and stop paying attention to the weather!

^^ it just started mix/borderline flurries here.

[Edited on March 2, 2010 at 12:55 PM. Reason : in southern raleigh]

3/2/2010 12:54:38 PM

You will get nothing and you will like it.

But seriously.

Halve his numbers and the forecast is pretty good.

3/2/2010 2:28:46 PM

Wake was just put under a Winter Storm Warning, so the NWS is starting to come around a bit... main roads still are probably too warm for much outside of slush.

[Edited on March 2, 2010 at 2:34 PM. Reason : and I just heard what HAD to be thunder...]

3/2/2010 2:34:22 PM

It's been snowing pretty steady here in Greensboro since around 11AM. Nothing sticking really, just a little dusting on the grass.

3/2/2010 2:36:13 PM

The recent radar returns look like it is losing moisture.

3/2/2010 2:37:53 PM

how long is this suppose to last?

3/2/2010 2:41:08 PM

through the night and into the early morning

3/2/2010 2:41:25 PM

not surprised. The snow stopped in charlotte, and it's barely even raining. Hard to tell exactly what tomorrow morning will look like.

3/2/2010 2:41:41 PM

nice.. it's gotten pretty light in asheboro. but the radar showed a small empty place passing over us around now soo that makes sense

[Edited on March 2, 2010 at 2:45 PM. Reason : asdf]

3/2/2010 2:44:19 PM

Really surprised they upped it to a warning. Has the potential to be a big bust.

3/2/2010 2:50:56 PM

it's raining really hard and there's giant snowflakes mixed in here (rocky mount). i've never seen this before...very interesting.

3/2/2010 3:48:57 PM

New forecast out from Huffman.

3/2/2010 3:57:43 PM

It was snowing heavy mixed with rain for about an hour here off blue ridge road

3/2/2010 3:59:02 PM

Quote :

"Really surprised they upped it to a warning. Has the potential to be a big bust."

Both ways.

3/2/2010 4:31:09 PM

Quote :

""The comma head is taking shape over central NC and central SC this will intensify and shift east-northeast through the evening and overnight. The significant snow will fall between 7pm-3am across the triangle." "

3/2/2010 4:38:00 PM