GOOG = up ~$15. yay!

6/22/2006 12:39:14 AM

are there any interesting ETFs in the <$5 range?

[Edited on June 23, 2006 at 11:41 AM. Reason : ]

6/23/2006 11:41:45 AM

Any thoughts on solid healthcare stocks?

JNJ is down on the news the they will be buying PFEs consumer health care unit. The buy give them the rights to a number of Pfizers products and will supposedly increase their foreign distribution.

I held JNJ until last month when it was called away at 60. Seeing it at the mid-59s is rather tempting.

[Edited on June 26, 2006 at 11:55 AM. Reason : news]

6/26/2006 11:27:56 AM

No picks, but avoid UNH.

Stock has taken a beating for CEO greed, and don't see it recovering anytime soon.

Actually, one that I have been watching is Sanofi-Aventis (SNY). Their drug, Acomplia could very well be the next viagra. The drug is primarily a weight-loss pill, but the drug also lowers blood fats and improves insulin sensitivity. It has even been shown to help people stop smoking and lose weight, or at least not go up in weight.

The drug was just approved for sale in EU last week, and is being currently reviewed by the FDA. If approved in the U.S., projected worldwide revenues for Acomplia are $5.2 billion.

[Edited on June 26, 2006 at 12:20 PM. Reason : asgd]

6/26/2006 12:10:09 PM

Any thoughts on the J. Crew IPO?

It seems like mid-summer is the worst possible time for them to go public.

6/26/2006 1:28:38 PM

Yeah, I was doing a little research on that myself. Being that they're not public yet, there's not a hell of a lot of info on them

Quote :

"http://www.redherring.com/Article.aspx?a=17363&hed=IPO+Watch%3A+Hot+and+Heavy+ ----------- J. Crew Group is a New York City-based specialty retailer offering apparel and accessories under the iconic J. Crew brand. The company is known for high standards of style, craftsmanship, quality, and customer service offered through 164 retail outlets, its J. Crew catalog, and on the Internet. J. Crew plans to price 18.8 million shares at $15 to $17 each to raise $300.8 million. The IPO is to start trading on Wednesday. For the 13 weeks ending April 29, the company reported net income from operations of $28.3 million on revenues of $240.7 million, compared with net income from operations of $22.9 million on revenues of $210.5 million for the same period a year ago. Formed in 1983, J. Crew Group has about 6,900 employees. Underwriters: Goldman Sachs and Bear Stearns are the joint-lead managers. Acting as co-managers are Banc of America Securities, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, JPMorgan, Lehman Brothers, and Wachovia Securities. Selected Principal Shareholder: TPG Advisors. 52-Week Percentage Change: Dow Jones U.S. Apparel Retailers Index, down 1.3 percent; Nasdaq Composite Index, up 2.4 percent."

So, based on those financials, there does appear to be growth in both gross revenue and margins. It'll certainly be one that I watch.

6/26/2006 3:11:16 PM

Curious...how does the IPO process work? All the articles I read say that J Crew's IPO comes out sometime this week, how do you find out when exactly? Is there a certain day where all IPOs are brought to market?

6/26/2006 4:36:09 PM

i wear j crew

they sell some nice stuff

6/26/2006 4:51:29 PM

TPG wants a nice exit and have subsequently enlisted the biggest banks on the street to push the stock. this might be a nice trading opportunity.

6/26/2006 5:12:09 PM

So how do y'all think the markets will react to a Fed rate hike this week?

I see two major unknowns:
1. How high this week's rate hike: 0.25% or 0.5%
2. Indications of future intention...

My guess is that Bernanke will be soft and positive. That is, only 0.25% and a wait-and-see position. He will proselytize strength of the economy and the need to keep inflation under control.

The stock market will get what it wants and return to growth. But uncertainty will dominate: uncertainty over when the hikes stop, where it will stop, whether the Fed will overshoot as it has done every single time,
and so on. I'm betting that the uncertainty will effectively prevent any major growth across all sectors.

I guess we'll know more on thursday...

6/27/2006 9:17:13 AM

hopefully Bernanke will be less inclined to spew fire and brimstone rhetoric like "being vigilant about inflation"

he needs to learn more from his predecessor. he needs to come out and say things like, "long term inflationary pressures compel the fed to take some action, but that markets should not overreact due to seemingly strong fundamentals in the macroeconomy"

he needs to be more of a soothsayer in order to alleviate unnecessary volatility



that said, i do think he will be a bit softer today, and consequently the markets will feel some sense of bottoming out. the market direction in general will be upwards from here on, but the bulls really won't be back until the summer is over

6/27/2006 10:11:42 AM

^ i meant "this week", not "today"

6/27/2006 10:12:31 AM

Well, its Bernanke, so I fully expect him to come out and say some shit about the euro being worth five dollars by november.

6/27/2006 11:49:31 AM

Slew of Sophisticated ETFs Hits the Market
http://www.thestreet.com/_htmlbtb/etf/etftuesday/10293592.html

A few of those sound intriguing. FXE and XOP caught my attention.

Does anyone know the forecast for the Euro/dollar exchange rate?

6/27/2006 12:35:40 PM

1.258701 dollars to euros

6/27/2006 12:42:14 PM

Forecast not going rate.

6/27/2006 12:43:19 PM

^euro futures traded in Chicago may be a good indicator/forecast

6/27/2006 1:01:44 PM

Things are NOT looking good for RMBS--check out the news!
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060628/rambus_stock_options.html?.v=1

*dies*
When it plummets this might be a good time to buy some RMBS.

6/28/2006 3:27:00 AM

rambus is still in business?

6/28/2006 8:35:01 AM

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B3B93F464%2DAB22%2D4F63%2D9B21%2DA7828A11B14A%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

6/28/2006 10:10:04 AM

Looks like the J.Crew IPO is going well... up over $5 per share:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/060628/retail_jcrew.html?.v=1

6/28/2006 10:24:26 AM

they've got the biggest players on the street pushing it

6/28/2006 10:30:30 AM

yep, quite a departure from the Vonage debacle

6/28/2006 10:55:30 AM

I have never messed around with IPOs.

Do we expect J. Crew to climb further over the next week or is it just hyped up today?

6/28/2006 12:40:31 PM

Depends on your definition of "up over $5/share"
To me, an IPO that had an expected opening of $20 per share but OPENED at $25 means that it didn't go up $5/share--it just started higher than expected. I couldn't get in on the $20/share price so to me it didn't go up at all. For an IPO to have gone up (according to my definition) it better have started out where EVERYONE could get in on it and THEN gone up.

[Edited on June 28, 2006 at 3:15 PM. Reason : ]

6/28/2006 3:15:19 PM

Wait, so why should we go by your definition and not by the official definition?

6/28/2006 3:24:05 PM

Apple is at its lowest in a while. I'm considering going in for a bit

6/28/2006 4:04:56 PM

^ I might pick up a little now, but I would definitely wait until august or september to buy much more. I would imagine that discretionary consumer spending is the majority of what drives Apple's profits and will be slow all summer before picking back up in the fall.

I picked up a little bit of Halliburton yesterday and managed to make a nice chunk of change today on options premiums.

I also found 2 ETFs that I like - IYR and VNQ - both are real estate funds with good dividends and attractive options premiums. Should I wait to buy since an interest rate hike this week could temporarily damage anything real estate related?

6/28/2006 4:11:30 PM

AAPL's an interesting one. With iPod sales decelerating, they're really going to need to see a lot of sales growth on the Macs to justify a P/E of 30. The analysts have forecasted a 10% growth in Mac sales, which is quite doable, but may not be enough to soften the blow of slowed growth in iPod sales -- "only" 22% growth over last year.

For a buy and hold scenario, i'd say AAPL is neutral at best.

For a short term play, getting in around late summer to capitalize on the certain Christmas boost is probably a good move, and on that note, SNDK will probably also see an increase from iPod sales. Similarly, if iPod sales growth continues to slow, it will certainly hit SNDK as well.

6/28/2006 4:15:29 PM

it's goin dowwwwwwwn

6/28/2006 4:35:14 PM

meet me in the cluuuuuuuub?

6/28/2006 5:53:48 PM

OH WE BACK!

[cautiously optimistic]

6/29/2006 11:50:55 AM

I finally bought a little bit of Haliburton at just the right time. Call options on half at 70 and the other half at 72.5 netted me 4% in one day (not including the 2.50 per share that I get if it reached 72.5)

I'm thinking about picking up some Progress Energy (PGN) to hold on to. Its stable and pays a very good dividend. Unforunately, the stability also lowers any type of option premium on it, which is how I make the majority of my money on large cap stocks.

6/29/2006 11:57:35 AM

The only reason that I have a different definition is because most people can't get in on an IPO deal like that. If you can GREAT, then it actually did make a difference for you.
But I think that saying something opening at $25, $5 above the price it was expected to open, doesn't necessarily mean that it "went up $5"--because most people weren't able to get in on it.

6/29/2006 12:51:42 PM

6/29/2006 2:30:22 PM

Quote :

"are there any interesting ETFs in the <$5 range?"

or even <$10 range

6/29/2006 2:46:20 PM

^^^
um, ok, you do what you wanna do then.


------
In other news, metals are hot today: TIE, PCU, ATI, AA, GLD, PD, NEM

6/29/2006 3:08:26 PM

Do you people spend most of your free time studying the market?

6/29/2006 3:13:38 PM

I'd say I probably spend about an hour a day reading up on various companies/stocks/sectors/market trends that interest me.

6/29/2006 3:15:36 PM

rate hike announced:

http://money.cnn.com/2006/06/29/news/economy/fed_rates/index.htm?cnn=yes

6/29/2006 4:02:03 PM

I bet AAPL will drop tomorrow.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060630/ap_on_bi_ge/apple_stock_options

6/29/2006 10:06:27 PM

ds

[Edited on June 30, 2006 at 11:03 AM. Reason : sda]

6/30/2006 10:46:28 AM

JCG is tearing it up today

6/30/2006 1:16:50 PM

Ouch! From their own underwriter hahahaha


Vonage Shares Not Worth Buying, Says Citigroup
http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=3154

Citigroup is Vonage's underwriter

It appears as though Vonage is in a more problematic situation than earlier reported. It now appears as though Citigroup, the company that managed Vonage's IPO, has declared a state of "hold" on trading Vonage's shares. The problem with with being given a "hold" rating however, is it's usually reserved for a company that's in a questionable state of financial direction with the market. According to the report, Citigroup is telling the market that it's just not worth it to buy more Vonage shares at this time.

Since its IPO, Vonage's stock has taken a major stumble, dropping from a price of $17 to a dismal $8.60. Many investors who purchased Vonage's shares ended up filing lawsuits against the company for not properly disclosing certain risks and certain details about its services and direction. Some have even threatened Vonage not to pay for the purchase of its shares.

Analysts are concerned over the competition that surrounds Vonage, citing that companies like AT&T and Comcast are coming out with more attractive VoIP and data packages. After its IPO, many investors began worrying about Vonage's services and offerings, saying that the company didn't really bring anything special to the table. Vonage has continued to take a beating in the market ever since. Vonage has also loss a considerable amount of money in profits, which quadrupled in 2005 from 2004 to $261 million. Vonage's net profit margin currently stands at -82.47%.

Vonage is currently being served several suits from Verizon over patent infringement.

7/5/2006 9:41:44 AM

Quote :

"After its IPO, many investors began worrying about Vonage's services and offerings, saying that the company didn't really bring anything special to the table."

You'd have to be an idiot to have not recognized this long ago. These are probably the same stupid asshole 'investors' who throw money at every tech IPO that comes down the pipe, and then sue when reality doesn't live up to their inflated dreams.

7/5/2006 10:18:21 AM

^ if you've kept up with this story, you'd find that most of the lawsuits are legit. But your point about the quote is dead on.

7/5/2006 10:24:16 AM

Ken Lay died this morning
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060705/obit_lay.html?.v=16

7/5/2006 12:31:32 PM

MO is through the roof.

Too bad that I sold calls at 75.

7/6/2006 12:41:44 PM

Interesting report on alt-energy

http://zacks.com/newsroom/commentary/index.php?id=3241&PHPSESSID=0cb61118814e95b01f2df4ad48a66d09

7/6/2006 1:36:54 PM

Altria might not necessarily be a large growth stock but they do have a nice dividend.

7/6/2006 6:37:12 PM