i told my mom to get in on the visa thing

[Edited on February 25, 2008 at 10:37 PM. Reason : page 16]

2/25/2008 10:37:03 PM

How would one get in on the IPO?

I'd almost be willing to sell all my VMW and JAVA ( ) at a nice loss to get in on Visa. If nothing else, perhaps it could help make up my losses. Hell I'd even be willing to sell some other stuff too...

2/25/2008 10:52:53 PM

to get IN on the IPO you gotta be one of the privileged few.

When I said "get in on this" i just meant buying it on the first day available to the public. I should have been more clear.

2/26/2008 7:09:17 AM

back to only being down 5% on the year in my 401k at least

2/26/2008 7:45:09 AM

^^^ Be a big shot investor with the company handling the IPO. Goldman Sachs I believe.

401K Personal Rate of Return from 01/01/2008 to 02/25/2008 is -6.3%

2/26/2008 10:20:08 AM

-5.6%

hopefully back to sometime soon

2/26/2008 12:12:49 PM

Really, really glad I sold my GOOG at $610.

2/26/2008 12:35:58 PM

yep, even GOOG isn't immune to a return to fundamentals.

avoid any stock with a PEG>1

2/26/2008 12:38:56 PM

yup - if one were to go back a few pages one would see a handful of us have been weary of GOOG and AAPL for a while

2/26/2008 1:12:35 PM

Glad I won't need that money for a few decades...

2/26/2008 1:14:22 PM

^^, true, but the entire nasdaq has gotten hit, badly, on Jan 23 it reached a low it hadn't seen since Sept. of 06, so anything tech will have probably have taken a beating. For now, I'm looking at the fertilizers once the bad news digests come Thursday or Friday, every one of them seems like a buy

2/26/2008 9:41:20 PM

http://community.marketwatch.com/groups/young-investors/

I set up a group on MarketWatch for us to use ... Looks like they may give us some cool tools to use and discuss in the future, so I figured we can test it out some.

Feel free to join, as it is an open group!!

2/26/2008 10:07:30 PM

Both JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs are underwriting shares for the Visa IPO.

[Edited on February 26, 2008 at 10:54 PM. Reason : jpm AND gs]

2/26/2008 10:48:46 PM

OH SHIT I'M BACK IN THE GREEN OVERALL

WOWW!!1!

2/26/2008 11:13:40 PM

dammit NIHD

in this market, missing revenues by less than 1% hurts your valuation by 7%

2/27/2008 11:32:18 AM

Dear CSCO: Please keep going up. Thanks...

2/27/2008 3:04:08 PM

I concur.

2/27/2008 3:18:33 PM

Dear IBM: Please keep going up. Thanks...

2/27/2008 3:40:52 PM

Dear everything I own: Please keep going up. Thanks...

2/27/2008 4:05:05 PM

my cost basis for CSCO is 29. beacuse of the quality of the company, its the only stock i'm willing to let ride in the red no matter how long it takes.

2/27/2008 4:07:22 PM

CSCO still a good buy at $25 right now?

2/27/2008 10:17:12 PM

^^^ superstar, post everything you own...

2/27/2008 10:23:10 PM

^^ probably so

..

gold approaching a grand

2/28/2008 11:45:09 AM

im loving the 10% i have in my company's stock on days like this (its up over 6%) when the rest of the market is doing bad. ive had a few days like this this year. once our stock was up 10% while the market was down 200. a small consolation prize considering i only have 10% in it tho heh

2/28/2008 12:47:34 PM

10% of your 401k in a single stock is

2/28/2008 12:51:20 PM

since ive been here our stock is currently at +40% with a peak at +60%. i posted on an earlier page about a guy who put 40% of his 15+ years of 401k into our stock last year and got a 200% return on that 40% portion. (our stock peaked around +200% last year and he dumped it very nearly at the apex). not advisable i know but just saying :busted:

considering im still up +40% on that 10% portion of my 401k since ive been here, i feel pretty comfortable that I could get out well before i was accruing losses.

[Edited on February 28, 2008 at 1:05 PM. Reason : ]

2/28/2008 1:04:52 PM

Just hope your company doesn't pull an Enron.

2/28/2008 1:14:07 PM

haha. yea for sure. although i think the people running this company wouldnt be stupid enough considering we've been around about 100 years longer than ENRON and are a bigger company.

our CEO seems like a real standup guy and helps on the WEF steering committee.

[Edited on February 28, 2008 at 1:23 PM. Reason : ]

2/28/2008 1:22:39 PM

Quote :

"10% of your 401k in a single stock is "

10% of my portfolio is company stock but 0% of it is in my 401K

2/28/2008 1:36:40 PM

We went up 10% today for whatever reason, pretty much offsets the losses across the rest of the board heh

2/28/2008 3:22:05 PM

so how do you bet on those Intrade polls for who's going to be the Presidential nominee, etc?


I've been meaning to put money on McCain for the GOP nod for a while (back when the odds weren't so overwhelmingly for him, but the writing was on the wall), but he's still only got like 94% odds. That's basically a sure thing.

2/29/2008 1:49:38 AM

Putting 10% of your 401k in a company stock isn't a terrible idea.

It's definitely risky, but if you're familiar with NUA (net unrealized appreciation) it can be very advantageous under certain circumstances.

If you work there a long time and say your cost basis on the stock is $15,000 but the value of the stock is $100,000.

When you leave the company instead of liquidating the stock and rolling the proceeds into an IRA you can take the stock in kind. You'll pay ordinary income on your cost basis but the earnings are treated as long term capital gains (15%).

So if you have a high earnings:basis ratio this can be very tax friendly.

2/29/2008 8:42:13 AM

ouch

today was especially painful

2/29/2008 4:39:37 PM

^^ I'm not very knowledgeable on the mechanics of 401ks...but how is that any different from holding 10% of any other stock? If you've held it long enough you should still only pay capital gains taxes on the earnings, right?

[Edited on February 29, 2008 at 5:05 PM. Reason : .]

2/29/2008 5:04:37 PM

^ Yes, but in nearly all 401k's you can only own your own companies stock.

In a brokerage account you'll only pay long term capital gains but you are buying with after tax money and it isn't growing completely tax deferred because you are paying income tax on the dividends each year.

In a 401k you can put in tax deferred money from your salary. Let's say you're in a 33% tax bracket and you are throwing $15,000 a year into your company stock. You are putting in ~15k and saving almost $5k from taxes up front. Let's say it grows to $100k and when you pull it out instead of having the entire $100k be taxed at ordinary income rates, you only pay income taxes on the 15k and the other 85k is taxed at a maximum of 15%.

Whereas if you buy $15k worth of a random mutual fund, when you pull it out the entire $100k is taxed at ordinary income levels.

I see a lot of people who have worked for a company all their life where they have a cost basis of say $100,000 but their company stock is worth $500,000. The hard part is having a ~65 year old man understand such a complicated idea. And most brokers and insurance/annuities scam artists are trying anything they can do to get them to liquidate the position ASAP so they can put the money into some kind of scam product with hidden fees.

[Edited on March 1, 2008 at 11:20 AM. Reason : a]

3/1/2008 11:19:00 AM

Quote :

"the entire $100k is taxed at ordinary income levels."

I actually just found this out the other day. I originally thought the amount above principal would be taxed as capital gains and not ordinary income.

3/1/2008 12:59:25 PM

goog almost at $455

[Edited on March 3, 2008 at 11:02 AM. Reason : ]

3/3/2008 11:00:48 AM

[Edited on March 3, 2008 at 11:10 AM. Reason : ]

3/3/2008 11:03:01 AM

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a10o.5fypUrg&refer=news

Wilbur Ross came in to save my AGO play. Seriously I thought they were getting punished for no reason and I guess Ross did too. Right now AGO is the only thing I have a long position in and I am thinking about an exit.

3/3/2008 12:52:41 PM

so how the markets today? when i went to bed around 4 the asian markets were doing shitty so i assumed they would be bad today...any of yall like this bernanke dude? i like greenspan more i think

3/3/2008 12:57:00 PM

^

Asian sell-off was more an echo of US Friday. The markets are holding up pretty well despite economic news that has been downbeat at best. My guess is that we are setting up for another big down day this week. There is built up tension as people begin to realize that Commercial Real Estate is tanking and that this will topple more than a few mid-size banks.

Moreover, I don't think the Ambac / MBIA story is over. I haven't looked deeply into the loss assumptions at S&P but from what I have heard and seen so far they only really deal with residential mortgage losses. There is no real consideration for huge spikes in commercial, credit cards or corporate default. The size of the CDS contracts alone could be enough to raise questions about capital adequacy.

3/3/2008 3:25:50 PM

Quote :

"Whereas if you buy $15k worth of a random mutual fund, when you pull it out the entire $100k is taxed at ordinary income levels."

random question: isn't this only if you pull the $100K out before holding the fund a year, thus it is a short-term capital gain? if you hold the fund for 1 year plus isn't it taxed as a long term capital gain, thus 15%?

edit: I just saw rally's post in the retirement thread about the mutual fund special case. so I guess this is only really true for stocks, and maybe ETFs?

[Edited on March 3, 2008 at 8:18 PM. Reason : .]

3/3/2008 7:54:37 PM

^ my comment only applies to retirement savings within a 401k.

In a brokerage account you wouldnt be taxed at all on the $15k. On the remaining 85k you'd be taxed at 15% if held more than a year and ordinary income if less than a year.

In a 401k you're taxed ordinary income in the year you pull it out of the account.

3/3/2008 8:40:28 PM

yeah. i understand now. a couple more questions for the more versed folks:

I heard somewhere that if you are purely looking at the tax consequences, it is better to sell your losers before you hold it a year, and your winners after holding for a year. This is assuming that after one year of the investment, I wanted to pull it all out or change up the investments.
Is there a difference, tax wise, between long and short term capital losses. I know that capital loses can, god forbid, be rolled over from year to year, upto 3K. However, does the length of holding matter?

3/3/2008 8:53:32 PM

Sometimes I am amused by how behind the curve the financial news can be

Quote :

"Credit Cards, Other Debt Are New Worry for Banks CREDIT CARDS, OTHER LOANS BECOME NEW WORRY FOR BANKS By Reuters Reuters | 04 Mar 2008 | 12:15 PM ET U.S. regulators said they are watching credit cards and commercial construction loans for signs they may be the next trouble spots as strained financial markets constrain credit. The housing downturn, with its epicenter in the subprime mortgage market, remained atop the list of concerns. But banking regulators and Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns that credit risks may extend beyond mortgages. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned that mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures would likely rise and more house price declines could be expected. "This situation calls for a vigorous response," Bernanke said in a speech to the Independent Community Bankers of America in Orlando, referring to government and private-sector initiatives to slow the rate of home loan failures. "Measures to reduce preventable foreclosures could help not only stressed borrowers but also their communities and, indeed, the broader economy," he said. Stocks fell as investors braced for more bank losses. Several financial stocks, including Citigroup , hit notable lows on Tuesday, while the S&P Financial index broke through its January low. Citi, the Dow's top decliner, hit a nine-year low. CNBC reported that Citigroup is now expected to cut more than 30,000 jobs in the next 18 months. Also, the head of Dubai International Capital said that Citigroup will need additional capital. Merrill Lynch cut its earnings forecast for Citigroup, saying it now expects a first-quarter loss of $1.66 a share, compared with its earlier view of 55 cents a share, amid $15 billion in writedowns related to subprime mortgages, theflyonthewall.com reported. Lehman Brothers and Freddie Mac also reached new intraday lows. Bernanke's second-in-command, Donald Kohn, said at a Senate Banking Committee hearing that the Fed was also keeping a close eye on credit card, home equity and commercial real estate loans as banks cope with a widening range of credit risks. "Federal Reserve supervisors are monitoring these consumer loan segments for signs of spillover from residential mortgage problems, particularly in regions showing homeowner distress, and are paying particular attention to the securitization market for credit card loans," he said. Kohn added that commercial real estate is "another area that requires close supervisory attention." He noted that while personal bankruptcy rates remained below levels prior to bankruptcy law changes implemented in 2005, they ticked higher over the first nine months of 2007 and "could be a harbinger of increasing delinquency rates on other consumer loans." Despite those strains, Kohn said the financial sector remained sound and he saw no threat to banks' viability. The credit mess that began with failing U.S. subprime mortgage loans has left banks saddled with tens of billions of dollars in bad debts, prompting them to tighten lending standards. That has slowed the flow of cash to companies and consumers who power the U.S. economy. U.S. Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan echoed concerns that the credit troubles may spread beyond mortgage loans. Dugan's office regulates about 1,700 of the largest banks. "Although credit card earnings have been fairly robust and portfolios are currently strong, we have a heightened level of concern in this area, even before the numbers confirm any significant deterioration," Dugan said. "We expect losses from home equity loans to continue to escalate as, unlike first mortgages, these assets are largely held on banks' balance sheets," he said. Copyright 2008 Reuters. Click for restrictions. URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/23466061/"

In related news, Citi is barreling towards $20 on rumors of 30K layoffs.

[Edited on March 4, 2008 at 2:00 PM. Reason : .]

3/4/2008 1:59:06 PM

Non-Farm Payrolls down 63K. Looking for a bottom in the market at this point. I still like dow 11.6K or so. Not that I am looking for that at the close today but we are stalking it.

Though I am a little upset that I let go of my SKF at 114, closed at 134. It was a volatile market however, and I am a wuss.

3/7/2008 9:26:21 AM

my portfolio has blood dripping out of it

[Edited on March 7, 2008 at 9:30 AM. Reason : .]

3/7/2008 9:30:07 AM

Eugh

01/01/2008 to 03/06/2008 is -10.3%

At least I'm beating the S&P and Nasdaq.

3/7/2008 9:41:41 AM

looks like today might not be too shabby

3/7/2008 9:57:39 AM

Go company stock, go!

IBM:+4.08
Dow: -9.8
S&P500: -11.67
Nasdaq: -16.67

3/7/2008 10:16:15 AM