I'll do what I like--you suck that up, StankinMonkey.

7/17/2008 10:23:19 AM

Oh shit, schoolyard knockdowns.

7/17/2008 10:26:09 AM

Jesus Christ. Hooksaw is a real bitch a lot of the time, but that dialogue was a whole new level of PMS.

7/17/2008 12:58:46 PM

What's humorous about this isn't necessarily hooksaw's state of denial, it's that it matters to him so much and on such a deep, partisan level.

I strongly doubt anyone is attributing the recession to GWB to the degree that he must think everyone is.

And trying and make isolated bits of good news within the recession a partisan issue in his favor is even more humorous.

7/17/2008 1:10:23 PM

^^ Did you have an argument related to the topic, PoleTracks? No? Then STFU.

^ You, too. Stop acting as if nobody is blaming our economic woes on Bush--that's just horseshit. I had to look no further than the previous page for it.

Quote :

"We've been running $300 billion/year deficits for the last 6 years to pay for Bush's war and "stimulus" tax cuts, so there's not much more economic stimulus to be pumped into the system."

Quoted by ActionPants

http://thewolfweb.com/message_topic.aspx?topic=500489&page=16

7/17/2008 1:50:39 PM

Quote :

"to the degree"

Is the foam getting in your eyes?

7/17/2008 2:30:33 PM

7/17/2008 2:38:46 PM

Hah, the difference between the claim that no one's blaming Bush for anything, and everyone's blaming Bush for everything is a weeeee bit wider than a hair's width.

7/17/2008 2:43:06 PM

Quote :

"^^ Did you have an argument related to the topic, PoleTracks? No? Then STFU. "

Are you dense? Your four previous posts before my last one has just as much substance. Period. Don't reply to this, there is nothing you can say to add any value.

7/17/2008 5:53:58 PM

Quote :

"Did you have an argument related to the topic, PoleTracks? No? Then STFU."

You and your ilk were wrong on the surge, wrong on "Reverend" Wrong, wrong on Obama's flip-flops, wrong on the Second Amendment, and you're wrong on the economy. Time will reveal the facts about the economy.

7/17/2008 6:38:36 PM

The funniest thing is, you're too stupid to realize my "Is the surge working" was created with the exact same goal in mind. To ultimately get to say "ah ha" told you so. For now, that can't be said for the surge thread just like for now your thread and it's intentions have epically failed. Just as hard or harder than the surge thread.

Oh sure, you'll move the goal posts because everyone in here knows that some day the US economy will recover and you'll claim that is impressive and blah blah blah. However, those of us with half a brain will see it all for what it was, a monumental correction that is the exact opposite of "impressive".

7/17/2008 7:41:23 PM

A correction is pretty impressive.

I'm still waiting to see anyone brave enough to call bottom.

7/18/2008 2:25:23 AM

One thing to keep in mind is that bank troubles are a trailing indicator, not a leading indicator. We will likely continue to hear about bank failures and insolvency for the next year or so, but its not necessarily indicative of the direction of the market.

7/20/2008 7:13:57 PM

the root of it is, the economy is doing better than most people think

high gas prices are causing grief for everyone and cause prices of other goods to rise some, causing slight inflation causing some friction when combined with gloom and doom from the bankers

7/21/2008 12:27:00 AM

Rising food and energy prices have received a lot of media attention lately, along with concerns about the threat of inflation. The chart above (using BLS data via Economagic) shows a sample of products that have experienced significant deflation in the last ten years (as well as deflation in the last few years in almost all cases), double-digit percentage decreases in all cases except for new cars.

Then considering that average hourly earnings have increased by [almost] 40% over the last ten years, the real prices of those products have fallen by an even greater amount, a HUGE amount. In other words, there are many, many products like computers, cameras, new cars, clothing, TVs, appliances, electronics, software, etc. that are significantly cheaper today than ten years ago, especially after adjusting for increases in earnings.
http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/07/for-some-products-theres-been-major.html

[Edited on July 23, 2008 at 1:30 PM. Reason : sp]

7/23/2008 1:22:48 PM

Holy shit! You mean technology comes down in price over long periods of time??? ABSOLUTELY MIND BLOWING!!!

7/23/2008 1:25:39 PM

That's right. And it is why so many manufacturing jobs have been destroyed. Afterall, as Americans spend less and less money every year on manufactured goods, due to falling prices, then fewer and fewer Americans can make a living producing manufactured goods.

7/23/2008 1:34:37 PM

Quote :

"Raleigh-Durham is not included in the survey, but according to the Triangle Realtors Association, home prices in the first quarter also increased 1 percent from last year."

Quote :

"Stacey Horowitz, a realtor with Fonville Morisey, says because of the growing population, the local housing market is still one of the most stable in the country."

http://www.wral.com/business/story/2942476/

7/24/2008 8:09:28 AM

Quote :

"The chart above (using BLS data via Economagic) shows a sample of products that have experienced significant deflation in the last ten years"

Technology getting cheaper is not deflation - it's a function of the unique way silicon processing and cost structure works.

^ yes, we live in a great area. Are you going to try to turn this into "The Impressive Raleigh-Chapel Hill Economy" thread, since it's finally apparent to anyone with a brain that the US economy is going to shit?

[Edited on July 24, 2008 at 8:37 AM. Reason : .]

7/24/2008 8:35:22 AM

^ Yeah, the Raleigh economy is impressive, too. Once again, given all the U.S. economy's been hit with, the fact that it hasn't totally tanked is impressive.

But keep nattering with the naysayers of negativism, Debbie Downer. It suits you.

7/24/2008 8:44:44 AM

haha, nice - just keep moving the goal posts. That way you'll never lose!

and you're right. I'm just one of many in a "nation of whiners". It's my negative attitude that's dragging us into a recession, despite the fact that I have a nice job and am still doing my fair share of spending and investing.

7/24/2008 9:11:29 AM

^ Then why do you whine so damned much?

7/24/2008 9:21:40 AM

Why do I "whine", even though I seem to still be doing OK for myself? Well, a couple reasons -

1) Empathy. I know this is a hard concept for a "pull yourself up by your bootstraps", "the market will take care of everything" Conservative, but I I do like to see other people do well and it hurts me to see people get beat-down or lose everything, often (though not always) through no fault of their own.

2) But more importanty, because I can see beyond my own nose and realize we're all in this big boat together. Just because I'm doing fine now doesn't mean everything will be the same one month or one year from now. Real Estate is tied to the Dollar is tied to Oil Prices is tied to the stock market is tied to Chineese Debt is tied to corn prices is tied to cost of food etc etc. You can't insulate completely, and if 60% of the factors that make up "the economy" are tanking (I mean, "slowing") then you can't expect the other 40% to maintain everything else.

That's not to say that all of us aren't affected already. Obviously my gas bill is going through the roof, as well as my grocery bill. I bought a house 1 year ago, and if something were to happen where I'd have to sell, I don't know if I could move it in this market, and if I did whether I'd be upside down or not. I work for a company that is tettering on the brink of collapse and could shut down its North American operations and let 4000 workers go in a heartbeat. My wife works for a school that could get its funding cut because it failed No Child Left Behind tests, leaving 2000 students and 200 teachers looking for new schools before the end of August. My point is - yeah, I'm doing fine now, but when jobs are scarce, commodities are expensive, and investments are going belly-up, it doesn't take much to go from "OK" to "ass fucked"

7/24/2008 2:15:52 PM

cell phone service in this country is still a load of horse dung.

7/24/2008 2:33:58 PM

I think its: nattering nabobs of negativism

7/24/2008 2:55:33 PM

^ Yes, I know. I used my own impromptu version of Spiro Agnew's famous phrase, and I figured a couple people here would recognize it.

I'll bet you had to look it up, though, didn't you, professor? Be honest.

[Edited on July 25, 2008 at 12:07 AM. Reason : PS: "its" (sic)]

7/24/2008 11:53:53 PM

"Nabobs" is the essential part-- the phrase would never have achieved fame if it were "naysayers."

You dig, jibe turkey?

7/25/2008 12:04:42 AM

^ It's true--"nabobs" is better. As I indicated, it was my own impromptu version.

7/25/2008 12:08:58 AM

Quote :

"On July 25, 2008, First National Bank of Nevada, Reno, NV, was closed by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). Subsequently, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was named Receiver. No advance notice is given to the public when a financial institution is closed. As of June 30, 2008, the former First National Bank of Arizona, Scottsdale, AZ, merged with First National Bank of Nevada and is included in this action."

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/fnbnv.html

Impressive!

7/26/2008 10:47:23 AM

Yeah, ok here we go, i work for a small company in morrisville, and in these horrible economic times we just had one of the best quarters the company has seen in its 11 years of operation. Most of the 500 companies we deal with are not slowing down. Right now there aren't chances that the economy is going to get better in the eyes of the media until bush is out of office. But as soon as obama takes office, all the democrats in congress might actually try to help the economy, and the press will finally see the light. However if they use obama economic plan, "God help us". Any of you people planning on voting for obama that are complaining about gas prices are screwed. He wants to make our energy plan the same as europes which means hopefully, we'll be paying $8 a gallon just like they are. Maybe he'll raise taxes on those filthy rich some more, aka small business owners, like my boss, whos not actually rich but because of the company's income, he'll have the shit taxed out of him and hopefully i'll lose my job because he can't afford to pay me and it will add to the country's unemployment rate. Tax cuts only help the filthy rich! Since Bush has been in office the company my father works for have opened 4 plants, guess how many jobs that created. Hey but obama will bring change. But is that change good? Most of the people who are going to vote for him don't know!

7/27/2008 1:41:30 AM

while i agree with a few of your points, your argument is built on a foundation of anecdotal evidence.

In ANY economy, some businesses/sectors will flourish while others are brought to their knees. Our economy as a whole is not doing that well right now. Inflation has hurt a lot of sectors, but has been good for exporters as one example.

I think the worst part of your post is the implication that democrats and republicans are that much different. They're different, sure. It's like asking you if you want to be raped in the ass with a white dildo or a black dildo.
either way you're still getting assraped.

7/27/2008 8:50:55 AM

Quote :

"I'll bet you had to look it up, though, didn't you, professor? Be honest"

I knew the phrase because I love Safire, but you would be correct that I had no idea how to spell "nabobs" and looked that up. Anytime there are no grammatical or spelling errors in my post you can bet it was checked against google.

[Edited on July 27, 2008 at 11:00 AM. Reason : .]

7/27/2008 11:00:12 AM

Rule #1 of working in the private sector: don't happily ride the wave when times are good, and complain bitterly when it cycles downward. If you go work for a company that is hiring like gangbusters, expect well in advance that they'll be laying off a few years down the line. When companies staff up it's almost always a gamble on future growth. When that growth doesn't materialize, find new options immediately. Preferably understand the risks well ahead of time and have a good network for finding new opportunities before the recession.

Unfortunately recessions are painful but they do teach individuals valuable lessons about cautious optimism. I learned my lesson during the first bubble (and was fortunate to be in college at the time).

7/27/2008 1:43:24 PM

^^^^ Nailed it, wolfpack914. But I would add one line after the "i'll lose my job because he can't afford to pay me" part: . . .turn to some bureaucracy for "assistance," which means suck off the government teat--that's where some of you seem to want me and everyone else.

^^^ Um. . .anecdotal evidence? How about quantitative data--how's 50 straight months of job growth in the U.S. economy?

Fact Sheet: October 2007 Marks Record 50th Consecutive Month of Job Growth
8.31 Million Jobs Created Since August 2003 In Longest Continuous Months Of Job Growth On Record

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/11/20071102.html

And there's this:

Quote :

"Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released new jobs figures for June. Nonfarm payroll employment decreased by 62,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.5 percent, in line with expectations. Although these numbers are disappointing, the unemployment rate remains below the averages for the past three decades. Despite slow growth, the economy continues to demonstrate resilience. The first quarter GDP was revised up to one percent at an annual rate, and other data suggest growth in the second quarter may be stronger than the first quarter."

http://www.whitehouse.gov/infocus/economy/

^^ Ah, an honest man--my respect for you has increased tenfold!

^ Indeed.

7/28/2008 4:56:39 AM

It's been 2008 for about 7 months now hookie

7/28/2008 11:09:37 AM

Quote :

"Maybe he'll raise taxes on those filthy rich some more, aka small business owners, like my boss, whos not actually rich but because of the company's income, he'll have the shit taxed out of him and hopefully i'll lose my job because he can't afford to pay me and it will add to the country's unemployment rate."

Of course I don't know your particular situation but in general this is an arguement against payroll taxes but not income taxes.

Income tax apply to whats left over after your boss pays your salary, so increase in income taxes should not reduce his ability to pay you. Indeed, it in effect makes paying you cheaper since, from his perspective your salary is a tax preferred expenditure.

This is why "fringe benefits" such has having your secretary go get your dry cleaning or walk your dog increase in frequency as tax rates go up.

7/29/2008 1:09:42 PM

I noticed none of the nabobs rushed right in here to post this, so I will.

US economic growth stays positive

Quote :

"Gross domestic product (GDP) rose at an annual rate of 1.9% between April and June, the Department of Commerce said, up from 0.9% in the previous quarter."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7535313.stm

But. . .but it feels like a recession!

7/31/2008 12:12:47 PM

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080731/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy;_ylt=AjMZzHETnP80b8BTgylCjxWyBhIF

7/31/2008 12:14:19 PM

Quote :

"translation: Shit isn't as bad as we thought it was going to be, but shit still fucking sucks. So less throw a huge party to talk about about we don't suck as a much as we thought we did even though we still suck, but not as much."

7/31/2008 12:14:39 PM

aha...i almost put that instead of the link

7/31/2008 12:15:10 PM

Keep hoping for the worst, nabobs!

7/31/2008 12:20:42 PM

Yes, that is what everyone is hoping for. A recession!

From my favorite bear:

Quote :

"Across the board, this was simply a horrible, recession set of data: Initial Jobless Claims: 448k. That's the worst level since April 2003. Q2 GDP: 1.9%, well below consensus of 2.3%. Q4 GDP Revisions: Revised from +0.6 down to -0.2%; The first negative quarter (Don't say we didn't warn you) since Q3 2001. Q1 GDP Revisions: Revised down to 0.9% from 1.0% Note -- I expect these revisions will get revised even lower in the future."

GOOD NEWS EVERYONE!

[Edited on July 31, 2008 at 12:52 PM. Reason : a]

7/31/2008 12:47:32 PM

Quote :

"Keep hoping for the worst"

No, you hope for the best, expect the worst.....there's a difference


anyone know if a president has ever been in office for 2 separate recessions?

7/31/2008 1:00:57 PM

Quote :

"I noticed none of the nabobs rushed right in here to post this, so I will. US economic growth stays positive Quote : "Gross domestic product (GDP) rose at an annual rate of 1.9% between April and June, the Department of Commerce said, up from 0.9% in the previous quarter." http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7535313.stm But. . .but it feels like a recession! "

so, show us again where the definition of a recession is "2 consecutive quarters of negative growth".
Oh, right - that's not the actual definition, but it sure does make for a good argument when you want to show that we're actually doing swimmingly!

7/31/2008 1:27:49 PM

^ If you'd bothered to read the article in the link I posted--and you posted again!--you'd have seen it, you fucking dumbass.

Quote :

"The most common definition of a recession is two consecutive three-month periods of negative growth. Officially in the US, a recession has not taken place until the National Bureau of Economic Research says this is the case, but this decision may not come for two years."

Here, I post the link yet again!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7535313.stm

1. The most common definition of recession has not been met.

2. The NBER definition of recession has not been met.

3. The U.S. economy is not in recession.

7/31/2008 1:36:50 PM

Quote :

" 3. The U.S. economy is not in recession. "

Quote :

"Officially in the US, a recession has not taken place until the National Bureau of Economic Research says this is the case, but this decision may not come for two years.""

Wait, so now you're a soothsayer or what?

7/31/2008 1:39:11 PM

aha

7/31/2008 1:41:50 PM

^^ By that definition, technically, we're NOT in a recession.

Which also means that if someone "feels" like it's a recession, they have the right to assert that, until the bureau makes their ruling.

7/31/2008 1:44:33 PM

Well, if there was a recession then it has already passed:

Quote :

"WASHINGTON -- The U.S. economy doubled its speed in the spring, driven by higher exports, falling imports, and rising spending by consumers given tax rebates meant to neutralize the housing slump. Gross domestic product rose at a seasonally adjusted 1.9% annual rate April through June, the Commerce Department said Thursday in the first estimate of second-quarter GDP"

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121750718275300573.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news&apl=y&r=349789

7/31/2008 1:53:03 PM

I thought the definition of a recession was two quarters of negative growth. We arent in one.

7/31/2008 1:54:06 PM