haha thats how my stock has been lately

3/7/2008 10:23:35 AM

http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/03/05/stagflation-even-if-the-economy-stagnates-your-investments-dont-have-to-do-the-same/

Quote :

"Stagflation: Even if the Economy Stagnates, Your Investments Don?t Have to do the Same By Martin Hutchinson Contributing Editor For months experts have been whispering about the dreaded ?R? word - recession. But a week ago, an even more insidious term was uttered - and by none other than U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. That new term was the ?S? word - stagflation. Speaking to the Senate Finance Committee recently, Bernanke said the United States isn?t ?anywhere near? the dangerous stagflation of the 1970s. Well, I hate to be contradictory, Ben, but we?ve pretty well got stagflation now. And in a few months time, that nasty combination of high unemployment and rising prices may seem a fond memory, since stagnation trumps recession any day of the week - and twice on Sundays. The challenge is this: How do we - as investors - make a buck out of this gloom?"

(more in the article)

3/7/2008 10:30:11 AM

wow, dow's below 12,000

now that the psychological barrier is broken, anyone else think we'll be below 10,000 by fall?

3/7/2008 12:13:36 PM

3/7/2008 12:23:08 PM

Quote :

"anyone else think we'll be below 10,000 by fall?"

lol, no

3/7/2008 12:24:10 PM

maybe not by this fall, but i think we'll see 10000 as a bottom.

3/7/2008 12:25:16 PM

i have no stocks right now, sold them all a few weeks ago.

i can't take the volatility right now

3/7/2008 2:36:29 PM

I can take it.

3/7/2008 2:37:32 PM

since i sold i would have lost 1k+ so i'm just waiting on the right time to jump back in.

3/7/2008 2:45:38 PM

No way I'm going to try timing this market. I'll just dca all the way down and all the way back up.

3/7/2008 2:49:43 PM

I am still looking at 11600 is as my bottom. Though 11K would not be a shocker. 10K is a bit extreme at this point.

3/7/2008 3:05:38 PM

Quote :

"since i sold i would have lost 1k+ so i'm just waiting on the right time to jump back in."

I'm down ~$10k since October. No whining!

3/7/2008 3:09:58 PM

I in no way whined

3/7/2008 3:48:29 PM

bump for today

3/10/2008 10:10:14 AM

VMW

3/10/2008 11:38:41 AM

http://www.ipohome.com/marketwatch/iponews2.asp?article=6617

Visa expected to IPO on March 19?

3/10/2008 11:46:49 AM

^ old news? see 2 pages ago

3/10/2008 11:49:41 AM

well, the date hadn't been set before.

3/10/2008 11:51:50 AM

they said march 19th, but looking back the article didn't say it was official yet

3/10/2008 12:06:21 PM

i've been overseas and in meetings for 10 days on account of my day job, and have thus been unable to keep up with the market..

..it got bloody pretty quick out there

3/10/2008 2:23:29 PM

I just updated my spreadsheet and I'm back where I was late 2006.

3/10/2008 3:19:26 PM

I'm dying out here....

3/10/2008 3:41:42 PM

at least Big Ben has stopped the bleeding somewhat.

had a nice suprise in the financials this morning

3/11/2008 9:16:29 AM

Nothing like exchanging worthless paper for securities backed by the full faith and credit of the U. S. Government. That's what it looks like to me.

This is just a bailout horse of a different color.

And these crap loans are the ones that the Fed is now going to trade for a taxpayer funded loan. I wonder how the valuation will work. Will the Fed accept stated value? That would be a real sham, but the Fed is desperate these days. And what if the lender can't survive past this month? Or next? Remember, the next big wave of loan re-sets has started, and defaults are picking up. In this case, the Fed (aka you the taxpayer) now own a worthless loan. And we probably massively overpaid.

Today the market has zipped up thanks to the Fed's burst of nitrous in the proverbial financial engine, but it too will run out. I'm selling into strength

3/11/2008 11:02:11 AM

Personally, I would feel better about things if the Fed would stop dumping all of this cash on the banks. Or "injecting liquidity" as they like to call it.

Don't February's inflation numbers come out Friday morning? BobbyDigital might have the right idea.

3/11/2008 11:10:29 AM

^ & ^^

I would not feel better. I think the Fed is on the right track, here.

The loans are not tax payer funded. If they go bad they are funded by expansion of the money supply. However, at this point we are facing the potential for higher inflation or financial meltdown. Between those two I choose inflation.

When we look at the Great Depression of the 1930s or the Japanese Depression of the 1990s one of the common themes is that in the midst of the collapse the Central Bank was still concerned with inflation. We are not making the same mistake this time.

Moreover, the only other option the Fed has is to lower interest rates which is accomplished by a direct increase in the money supply. So in terms of inflation, this is a far less inflationary policy.

I don't think this one facility, especially at this level will solve the crisis but it is a start.

3/11/2008 1:02:07 PM

Paulson and/or the fed now needs to work with legislators to fix the ethanol boondoggle. either by scaling back corn ethanol subsidies, or by accelerating the move away from corn ethanol and into cellulosic ethanol.

3/11/2008 1:07:15 PM

^^ I disagree.

By virtue of printing money, they're taking away from the taxpayer. Additionally, the lowered interest rates for the banks do not result in lower interest rates for us proletariats.

As for banks going belly up, too bad for them. They fucked up, and they should reap the consequences they sowed. So instead of borrowing from WAMU or Countrywide, now we get our mortgage from a British or German bank. The keep-banks-alive-at-all-costs mentality only serves one group - banks.

It's like the worst case scenario for capitalism and socialism. The profits have been privatized (some $100B+ in bonuses paid out to various bank and finance employees over the last few years) and the losses are socialized -- $200B paid for by you, me, and Joe Taxpayer via the erosion of our real monetary value over the next few years.

3/11/2008 1:48:11 PM

Hooray for inflation, it's at least better than deflation. Since most people are overextended on debt, inflating away debts probably helps more people than it hurts. In addition, I would guess that savers that don't have a lot of debt probably have their money parked in something that moves with inflation.

Besides, I highly doubt that being a hard ass and making banks and dumbasses fail will teach them a lesson. Things may settle down for a year or two, then some new financial instrument that encourages profligate lending will come along and the cycle will begin again.

This is america and we only think about the short term, goddammit. (Anyway, the real long term, fundamental concern is whether technology is advancing. These nominal figures will sort themselves out.)

Also, I hope everyone made a good chunk of change today.

[Edited on March 11, 2008 at 8:22 PM. Reason : .]

3/11/2008 8:19:06 PM

made back like 4%..ill take it

EDIT: ok my math was off. i made 3.5% but hey ill still take that haha

[Edited on March 11, 2008 at 8:30 PM. Reason : ]

3/11/2008 8:21:30 PM

Quote :

" inflating away debts probably helps more people than it hurts"

That's a pretty interesting point, although I'm not sure what the real stats are on who it hurts vs. helps, but for those of us who are young professionals who bought houses in the last couple of years, this is very true.

If we get to the point where salaries are bumped to address the inflation, stock prices rise due to inflation, the nice thing is that our mortgage payments stay the same.

Now if I can only figure what the best investment vehicles will be for the next couple of years....

3/11/2008 9:29:46 PM

bank stocks!

3/11/2008 9:32:52 PM

aha

3/11/2008 9:35:01 PM

I made back a decent bit today.
edit: I honestly can't believe I didn't sell all my GE when it was ~$41 back in October's runup.

[Edited on March 11, 2008 at 9:59 PM. Reason : ]

3/11/2008 9:57:27 PM

cellulosic ethanol! ssjamind is trying to pull a get rich quick scheme... i'm in on the same one. did you see they're cranking out deals like crazy and are finally building that greenhouse?

to BobbyDigital's point about the next two years... let's say you finally made some pending financial decisions and have a pile of cash that no longer needs to be liquid - where do you you stick it for the long haul (because that's what i do) if it's going in now (assuming an already diversified portfolio that sits on the efficient frontier for your risk tolerance).

[Edited on March 12, 2008 at 11:20 PM. Reason : entertaining all wild and crazy options]

3/12/2008 11:19:06 PM

^ ya. i like how they're all into input traits and working with Monsanto and whatnot. Management knows what they're doing, and having Ryals on the board is always a big plus. they're taking over where Paradigm's amateurish board left off during the last recession.

3/13/2008 9:48:53 AM

So much for my gains from a few days ago.

3/13/2008 10:12:58 AM

glad i did some selling.

i think i'm going to play the volatility, see if i can at least get some profits out of it.

3/13/2008 10:15:12 AM

i got a feel t rowe price is prolly wondering where there money for my ira is...i never even sent in a check stub...

3/13/2008 8:35:22 PM

Nice job kid.

3/14/2008 12:06:24 AM

i figure since they could never prove it they will just let it go

3/14/2008 12:10:30 AM

Good thinking!!!

3/14/2008 12:12:44 AM

thats what i call getting a head start on retirement!

3/14/2008 8:39:13 AM

J.P. Morgan and the New York Fed provide bailout funding to Bear Stearns.

3/14/2008 9:32:46 AM

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Dispatch/080314markets.aspx

[Edited on March 14, 2008 at 9:46 AM. Reason : link]

3/14/2008 9:35:38 AM

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Dispatch/080314markets.aspx

Bear Stearns 50% down.

Here's a blow-by-blow courtesy of Barry Ritholz's blog The Big Picture:

Quote :

"9:48: Doug Kass asks a good question: "If Bear Stearns (BSC) requires a temporary bailout, did the company's management fib in its recent CNBC interview?" 9:49: Bear is down 15, $42 and falling fast. 25 million shares traded in 20 minutes 9:51: Down $19 -- its gonna be halted soon -- $38.50 As we discussed last night, liquidity concerns about Bear Stearns (BSC) have been validated. The NY Federal Reserve Bank, and JP Morgan (JPM) have agreed to provide secured funding to Bear and an initial period of up to 28 days. JPM is working with Bear to secure permanent financing or other alternatives for them. 9:53: Down $20 9:56: Down $18 Market is down 160 -- Goldman, others under pressure 9:58: Bear down $26 -- off 40% Dow off 200 9:59: BSC = $30 Down $28 off 45% 10:00: Amazing freefall Dow off 300 points, Nasdaq off 58 10:03: Thought: Bear denied on CNBC they had any liquidity concern. LIARS Once again, we learn you cannot trust management to tell the truth. Financial institutions have been issuing denials about the credit crunch for for over 12 months now -- all of them full of shit. 10:05: Bear = $34 -- $7 bucks off the 26.85 low 10:08: Turns out Richard Bove was right -- the Fed action on Tuesday ABSOLUTELY WAS to rescue Bear Stearns . . . 10:11 No Federal Reserve Press Release on this? I better check the NY Fed site . . . 10:12: Seemed to have stabilized at $35-36 -- At 45 minutes into trading, they have traded over 52 million shares 10:15: No NY Fed statement released as of 10:15 yet . . . 10:20 Dow recovers . . . off 126 10:25: Dow off 100 -- things seem to be stabilizing -- what a wild ride 10:26: Bear Stearns Press Release: "We have tried to confront and dispel these rumors and parse fact from fiction," CEO Alan Schwartz said in a release. "Nevertheless, amidst this market chatter, our liquidity position in the last 24 hours had significantly deteriorated. We took this important step to restore confidence in us in the marketplace, strengthen our liquidity and allow us to continue normal operations." 10:29: Here's the link tot he 9:21 press release from Bear Bear Stearns Agrees to Secured Loan Facility with JPMorgan Chase http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080314/20080314005441.html?.v=1 10:31: Here's the JPM press reslease JPMorgan Chase and Federal Reserve Bank of New York To Provide Financing To Bear Stearns http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080314/20080314005430.html?.v=1 JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM - News) announced that, in conjunction with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, it has agreed to provide secured funding to Bear Stearns, as necessary, for an initial period of up to 28 days. Through its Discount Window, the Fed will provide non-recourse, back-to-back financing to JPMorgan Chase. Accordingly, JPMorgan Chase does not believe this transaction exposes its shareholders to any material risk. JPMorgan Chase is working closely with Bear Stearns on securing permanent financing or other alternatives for the company. 10:33: If you are wondering WTF a non-recourse, back-to-back financing is, pull up a chair: JPM gets to go the the Discount Window and borrow all the greenbacks they want; Then they loan that to Bear. In the event that Bear defaults, the NY Fed cannot go back to recover from JPM -- hence, non-recourse. 10:36: Welcome to Bailout City! Now you know: BSC is considered to big to fail. 10:38: When I whine about Socialism, this is EXACTLY what I am referring to. Instead of letting Bears Stearns get crushed, and then see the assets and talent pool get scooped up by someone else, we keep a wounded Bear on life support hanging around . . . My preference is creative destruction. 10:40: Groundhog Day: All we've done is guarantee 6 more months of this exact same thing. I hope I am alive when the post-mortem is written on this 50 years hence. I suspect it will be rather critical. 10:42: For you numerologists: Bear at $28, down $28 -- a two for one split "

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/03/bear-stearns-ge.html?cid=106984240#comment-106984240

3/14/2008 9:49:16 AM

Quote :

"When I whine about Socialism, this is EXACTLY what I am referring to. Instead of letting Bears Stearns get crushed, and then see the assets and talent pool get scooped up by someone else, we keep a wounded Bear on life support hanging around . . . My preference is creative destruction."

I totally agree with this.

3/14/2008 9:54:40 AM

Quote :

"10:59: CNBC reports that BSC is actively being shopped to JPM and others -- if they get bought, you can only imagine what the layoffs will be like. "

3/14/2008 10:16:14 AM

I disagree with Barry on this one big time. What the hell is the discount window for if not to be tapped in times of liquidity crisis?

This is precisely how the system is supposed to work. I mean we tried that whistling past the graveyard while banks go under thing during the Great Depression. It didn't work out so good.

Calling it a "Bailout" is pretty disingenious on the part of the financial press as well. When you use an existing facility for the purpose it was designed this is not really a bailout. Nor is the Fed or JPM taking any equity stake in Bear. Nor are Bear shareholders being protected against solvency issues.

This is a 28 day loan, the financial equivalent of payday lending. Yes, it signals Bear was in trouble but at least at this point the possibility remains that it was a crisis of confidence not solvency.

3/14/2008 10:21:56 AM

cold winters cause recessions

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080313_coolest.html

3/14/2008 1:25:48 PM