McDanger All American 18835 Posts user info edit post |
lol gotta love it whenever str8foolish makes someone mad enough to post my photo
[Edited on November 2, 2012 at 4:20 PM. Reason : altho you have me to thank that the dude posts without being 5 bux poorer] 11/2/2012 4:19:45 PM |
Shrike All American 9594 Posts user info edit post |
So it seems like the Republican hive mind has decided that Sandy will be their excuse for why Obama won. Romney had the election well in hand until a natural disaster came along and ruined everything for him. Awesome. 11/2/2012 4:23:57 PM |
BanjoMan All American 9609 Posts user info edit post |
certantly not over yet 11/2/2012 4:26:02 PM |
MisterGreen All American 4328 Posts user info edit post |
wasn't aware you were capable of posting without calling someone racist. GG.
[Edited on November 2, 2012 at 4:40 PM. Reason : ^^^] 11/2/2012 4:39:49 PM |
BanjoMan All American 9609 Posts user info edit post |
find me a quote where I called somebody racist. 11/2/2012 4:46:16 PM |
MisterGreen All American 4328 Posts user info edit post |
i edited to include the carets hoping to clarify i wasn't talking about you 11/2/2012 5:03:59 PM |
BanjoMan All American 9609 Posts user info edit post |
What this message board needs is a way that we could all have a beer together and be friends. 11/2/2012 5:09:38 PM |
Supplanter supple anteater 21831 Posts user info edit post |
The latest "unskewed" map of how the election is going to go:
11/2/2012 5:13:28 PM |
HockeyRoman All American 11811 Posts user info edit post |
I like the new thing kicking around the "Right". "Either Obama barely wins, Romney barely wins, or Romney wins in a blowout! 2 out of 3 outcomes have Romney winning!!!1" 11/2/2012 5:17:28 PM |
NyM410 J-E-T-S 50085 Posts user info edit post |
Why the hell am I seeing this awful conservative commercial from some rich Hungarian telling me I live in a socialist state and to vote for Mitt during EVERY SINGLE COMMERCIAL BREAK.
How is that drivel supposed to work?
[Edited on November 2, 2012 at 5:22 PM. Reason : x] 11/2/2012 5:22:07 PM |
bbehe Burn it all down. 18402 Posts user info edit post |
So what's the prediction for Johnson? Will he hit 5%? 11/2/2012 5:23:41 PM |
BanjoMan All American 9609 Posts user info edit post |
^^ They are trying to equate Obama with Stalin... and Hitler... and Jimmy Carter... 11/2/2012 5:31:31 PM |
Shrike All American 9594 Posts user info edit post |
22 Ohio polls, 4 ties, 1 Romney lead (from Rasmussen, which today shows a tie). It all points to ~3-4% Obama lead, which was about his margin of victory 2008.
Quote : | "I like the new thing kicking around the "Right". "Either Obama barely wins, Romney barely wins, or Romney wins in a blowout! 2 out of 3 outcomes have Romney winning!!!1"" |
Yeah, they are delusional. Right now, the "smallest" Obama win would be 281-257. It could get as ugly as 332-206. Romney's only realistic winning EV projection is 275-263. So it's actually the exact opposite of what the "Right" is saying.11/2/2012 5:45:14 PM |
y0willy0 All American 7863 Posts user info edit post |
McDanger wrapping up a PhD?
11/2/2012 6:04:39 PM |
IMStoned420 All American 15485 Posts user info edit post |
Holy shit MisterGreen is a fucking moron. 11/2/2012 10:46:31 PM |
moron All American 34078 Posts user info edit post |
Quote : | "" |
LOL
and there are people buying into this... wow.11/2/2012 11:32:18 PM |
BanjoMan All American 9609 Posts user info edit post |
Wow did hannity just slam obama for campaining with bruce springston while thr north is not fixed yet? 11/3/2012 12:11:21 AM |
BanjoMan All American 9609 Posts user info edit post |
Mitt compained with fucking "ill have a blow job" kid rock 11/3/2012 12:14:53 AM |
thegoodlife3 All American 39221 Posts user info edit post |
latest polls showing an Obama win with ease
I can dig it 11/3/2012 1:47:45 AM |
A Tanzarian drip drip boom 10995 Posts user info edit post |
^^^^ I read an article hypothesizing Romney's 'momentum' is setup for post-election litigation (Chicago cheated!) and second term obstructionism (Obama isn't the REAL president!).
I'm still on the fence on how cynical the author is. 11/3/2012 2:06:03 AM |
skokiaan All American 26447 Posts user info edit post |
Republican co-worker stopped making bets for Romney because he's afraid that he's too exposed on pro-Romney bets already.
His worst bet was donating the max amount to the Romney campaign, though. 11/3/2012 2:34:25 AM |
timswar All American 41050 Posts user info edit post |
Paths To VICTORY!!!!!!
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html
Basically, Obama has 431 paths to an electoral collage victory while Romney has 76. Of course, Romney will probably take Fla so it's really 176-75 paths to victory. 11/3/2012 7:50:40 AM |
skokiaan All American 26447 Posts user info edit post |
Basically, Romney has to win florida, ohio, VA, and one other to win. 11/3/2012 11:17:49 AM |
BanjoMan All American 9609 Posts user info edit post |
Nate Silver looked adorable on TRMS last night.
BTW, something about maddow that really, really turns me on. It's these playful, curious facial expressions that she has when trying to rationalize the GOP. But alas, I have fallen for lesbians before.
[Edited on November 3, 2012 at 11:55 AM. Reason : double post] 11/3/2012 11:55:03 AM |
mnfares All American 1838 Posts user info edit post |
Nate Silver brings up a good topic. What are the chances that all the polls are wrong?
11/3/2012 1:59:28 PM |
timswar All American 41050 Posts user info edit post |
He didn't bring that topic up. Republicans have been counting on the idea of ALL the polls being wrong for two weeks now. 11/3/2012 2:04:46 PM |
mnfares All American 1838 Posts user info edit post |
I was referring to this article where he says all state polls have to be biased for Romney to win.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nov-2-for-romney-to-win-state-polls-must-be-statistically-biased/ 11/3/2012 2:09:37 PM |
lewisje All American 9196 Posts user info edit post |
Shrike, Obama's margin of victory in 2008 was about twice as big as you said, and his projected margin of victory is less than two thirds of what you said. 11/3/2012 2:47:33 PM |
Shrike All American 9594 Posts user info edit post |
^What? If you give him every safe blue state plus all the swing states he's likely to win, that's 281 EVs. If you also give him CO and VA (which look good for him right now) and FL (which is close enough to go either way), that's 332 EVs. NC is really the only swing state Romney can bank on. 11/3/2012 3:37:26 PM |
prep-e All American 4843 Posts user info edit post |
To all of you Obama Kool-Aid drinking retards:
know this...
When the election is called for a Romney win on Tuesday night, I will pause for a moment and smile as I think about how pissed off and ashamed you feel, wherever you are, while I'm enjoying one the biggest "I told you so" moments of my life and have about $800 extra in my pocket, which most likely came from other liberal retards that were so sure Obama would win that they pushed the betting line to +350 for me 11/3/2012 6:18:19 PM |
disco_stu All American 7436 Posts user info edit post |
You're confident Romney is going to win because the market has Obama favored? Makes complete sense. 11/3/2012 7:39:37 PM |
roddy All American 25833 Posts user info edit post |
Once OHIO is called for Obama, it is over for Mitt....at last he will have plenty of time to prepare his speech. 11/3/2012 7:43:24 PM |
Dammit100 All American 17605 Posts user info edit post |
^^^ that's a lovely hypothetical, but what will you do when Obama wins? 11/3/2012 7:53:10 PM |
timswar All American 41050 Posts user info edit post |
I don't trust Ohio or Florida. Florida's problems are obvious, it's just damned hard to actually cast a vote there. Plus they've already started having vote counts shift in strange ways. Ohio is just screwy, whether it's gross incompetence or something thing more organized won't get the media attention it deserves.
Either way, I think it's funny that the party who is supoosed to have a "silent majority" that isn't accounted for in polling is the one which has determined that fewer people voting is the only way they can win.
[Edited on November 3, 2012 at 7:57 PM. Reason : ,] 11/3/2012 7:56:31 PM |
dtownral Suspended 26632 Posts user info edit post |
Prep-e is really living in his own world 11/3/2012 8:05:47 PM |
jaZon All American 27048 Posts user info edit post |
I posted a 538 link on facebook and some hillbilly I went to highschool with and am somehow related to posted this gem:
Quote : | "you've got to be one of the most ill-informed voters I know." |
I went back to look at my recent posts and none of the political posts are speculation - all proven facts. The Reds are delusional as shit these days.11/3/2012 9:04:18 PM |
timswar All American 41050 Posts user info edit post |
It's just desperation. The posibility of getting beat twice by a blah guy plus having to reexamine their status as being the majority in America is causing a lot of conservatives to have mini-meltdowns. 11/3/2012 9:11:20 PM |
Shrike All American 9594 Posts user info edit post |
3 more days until the start of 1000 years of liberal darkness. My body is ready. 11/3/2012 9:29:34 PM |
prep-e All American 4843 Posts user info edit post |
A large majority of the polls over-sample Democrats. The media is desperate to make this look like a close election when it's not. They're just trying to get more Democrats to show up at the polls by making Obama look like he has a chance. Romney is positively going to win. I don't care what Nate Silver's little program says, he's going to look like a clown after Tuesday. I will stay out of the soapbox for 1 full year if I'm wrong, you can hold me to it. That's my word. 11/4/2012 12:12:39 AM |
thegoodlife3 All American 39221 Posts user info edit post |
keep telling yourself that, champ 11/4/2012 12:18:39 AM |
prep-e All American 4843 Posts user info edit post |
I will, for 3 more days until I'm proved right. 11/4/2012 12:33:31 AM |
jaZon All American 27048 Posts user info edit post |
Just saw this on Foxnews.com
Quote : | "PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATING
Approve 48% Disapprove 48% Undecided 5%" |
There you go, 101%.11/4/2012 12:46:09 AM |
lewisje All American 9196 Posts user info edit post |
It's called rounding error: As an example, it could be that the Approval-Undecided-Disapproval ratings down to one decimal place are 47.7%-4.7%-47.6%, which would add up to 100% but round to 48%-5%-48%.
Similarly, if later on the figures become 47.4%-5.3%-47.3%, that would still add up to 100% but round to 47%-5%-47%, appearing to add up to only 99% in the reported totals.
It gets worse as you add categories of response, like if you polled people's preferences for the 6 Presidential candidates with majority-level ballot/write-in access, and also included "other" or "don't know" or refusal to answer, you can get cumulative round-off errors as great as 4% in either direction: 40.45-39.45-4.45-3.45-3.44-2.44-2.44-2.44-1.44 adds to 100 but rounds to 40-39-5-3-3-2-2-2-1, which adds to 96; meanwhile, 40.55-39.55-5.55-4.55-3.56-2.56-1.56-1.56-0.56 adds to 100 but rounds to 41-40-6-5-4-3-2-2-1, which adds to 104.
In general, if a population is divided into n pieces, and their portions are reported in percentages, and the number of decimal places used in reporting is great enough that the average piece won't be rounded to 0, the smallest total attributable to rounding error can be calculated by first looking at the largest ratio of integer to n that is less than 1/2 (errors like 50.5-49.5 becoming 51-50 can be fixed by rounding to odd to minimize reported ties and blowouts, giving 51-49, or by the scientific practice of rounding to even, giving 50-50), which is (n-1)/(2n) if n is odd, or (n-2)/(2n) if n is even; multiplying by 2 and seeing the symmetry of the situation for the largest such erroneous total gives the maximum error in terms of the value of the last reported decimal place as (n-1)/2 if n is odd, or n/2-1 if n is even.
As an example, if you're reporting on 999 different sub-populations, you need to report your sub-population figures down to three decimal places just to make sure that the sum of the reported figures will round to 100% (it will range from about 99.502% to about 100.498%, which all round to 100%); generally you need to report sub-population figures to ceil(log((n-1)/2)) decimal places to assure that the sum will round to 100%. 11/4/2012 1:00:03 AM |
jaZon All American 27048 Posts user info edit post |
did you seriously just post that? 11/4/2012 1:07:27 AM |
jstpack All American 2184 Posts user info edit post |
i now have two bets with hardcore conservatives that Obama will win. i know and see where they're coming from, because there will be a lot of "firsts" if Obama wins (mainly unemployment and approval rating factors point to a loss), but i just don't see it happening.
besides, i figure it's a win/win for me. if Obama wins, i get some $$ and a free lunch; if Romney wins, then we're rid of yet another horrible president and someone else gets a chance to turn around the last 12 years worth of incompetence. 11/4/2012 8:37:44 AM |
Supplanter supple anteater 21831 Posts user info edit post |
More money spent in NC than in NV, NH, MN, WI, MI, PA, or IA according to this map.
11/4/2012 11:24:40 AM |
Shrike All American 9594 Posts user info edit post |
So I'd just like to note that basically all the national polls have conformed to the state polling over the last couple days. Even Rasmussen is showing a tie when it had previously showed a lead for Romney. The PPP national tracker has +3 Obama, his largest lead in that particular poll, and is probably about what the final margin will be. 11/4/2012 11:55:37 AM |
OopsPowSrprs All American 8383 Posts user info edit post |
Quote : | " I will stay out of the soapbox for 1 full year if I'm wrong, you can hold me to it. " |
I would rather that you continue to post everyday for a year instead if you're wrong so we can all laugh at you.11/4/2012 11:56:30 AM |
BanjoMan All American 9609 Posts user info edit post |
Wow, two things that are sad. Voter suppression may yet again be an issue. And mitts jeep add backfiring on him. 11/4/2012 12:05:49 PM |
mrfrog ☯ 15145 Posts user info edit post |
https://data.intrade.com/graphing/temp/chart135201787069535903.png
Obama is still strong, but it's far from settled.
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=84326
Also interesting:
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=754570
most likely scenario is Senate - Democrats House - Republicans President - Obama
[Edited on November 4, 2012 at 12:17 PM. Reason : ] 11/4/2012 12:13:23 PM |