OK here's my updated graph (for those of you who care...) And for those that don't, hey we all like to brag.




OK here's my question. I have done a little statistical analysis of the last month of data involving heads-up tournaments. Here's my records since May 21st, the last recorded data:

$5.25 buy-in: 53-33 (+$78.50) (62%)
$10.50 buy-in: 9-3 (+54.00) (75%)
$21.00 buy-in: 5-1 (+74.00) (83%)
$34.50 buy-in: 1-1 (-$3.00) (50%)

It seems like I perform much better in higher buy-in tournaments. Granted, I totally realize that there is not much data to analyze. The easy answer is to discredit the higher buy-ins due to this lack of data.

However, I sometimes feel like there could be a lot of "decent" players lurking around at $5 tables like I do, so maybe it is harder to prey on crappy players.

Another solution might be that I don't put as much care/concentration into winning the $5 ones since it is only $5.

Or perhaps, players at $5 are generally stupid, and the play has a lot of variance, so it is hard to play these unpredictable players successfully.

I realize that this is just rambling, but hey, it's a poker thread and that's what this is for. I really enjoy heads-up a lot, however I try to throw in a big MTT occasionally too (I have only cashed in a couple, and those were really low buy-ins so very little profit). Anyways, any thoughts on this variance would be appreciated.

Oh yeah, I got my check from BoDog. Yippee.

6/20/2007 11:52:46 PM

I'd say you need to greatly increase your sample size.

6/21/2007 9:38:28 AM

im sure everyone interested already knows, but in this latest post from columnist Pauly, he talks about poker pros Vinnie Vinh and Eskimo Clark both wrapped up in their own horrible circumstances.

interesting read

http://taopoker.blogspot.com/


...happy, omar?

6/21/2007 4:34:46 PM

Could not have happened to two nicer individuals.

6/21/2007 5:16:54 PM

look at the weight difference


then


now


drugs are bad

[Edited on June 21, 2007 at 6:12 PM. Reason : ]

6/21/2007 6:11:44 PM

Does anyone on here play on BoDog as JNAIL? I just played a JNAIL from Cary, and the name sounded familiar.

6/22/2007 2:03:11 AM

JSnail?

6/22/2007 3:12:02 AM

This is a hand from last night in a $4/180 person tourny. Was at the final table sitting well with what appeared to be a bunch of ultra laggy folks. I have a tight image at the table in comparison to the other 4. It killed me to make this fold, however the difference between 5th and 1st is 170 bucks or so. Ended up in second for $144. I would like some input, what sort of range would warrent this move from a LAG player?

I was thinking K-9s or better and any PP. That being the case, I have a hunch I was ahead, just not willing to risk all my chips when I figured I could kill the people in post-flop actions.

--------------

PokerStars Game #10557824521: Tournament #53470318, $4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit -
Level XII (800/1600) - 2007/06/22 - 02:13:55 (ET)
Table '53470318 3' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 2: Grunks (49322 in chips)
Seat 3: JoanOfAce (51473 in chips)
Seat 5: slowcheetah1 (53898 in chips)
Seat 6: JechtSphere (48547 in chips)
Seat 8: S4ILBO4T (66760 in chips)
Grunks: posts the ante 75
JoanOfAce: posts the ante 75
slowcheetah1: posts the ante 75
JechtSphere: posts the ante 75
S4ILBO4T: posts the ante 75
JechtSphere: posts small blind 800
S4ILBO4T: posts big blind 1600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to slowcheetah1 [Td Th]
Grunks: raises 1600 to 3200
JoanOfAce: raises 48198 to 51398 and is all-in
slowcheetah1: folds
JechtSphere: folds
S4ILBO4T: folds
Grunks: folds
JoanOfAce collected 9175 from pot
JoanOfAce: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 9175 | Rake 0
Seat 2: Grunks folded before Flop
Seat 3: JoanOfAce collected (9175)
Seat 5: slowcheetah1 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: JechtSphere (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: S4ILBO4T (big blind) folded before Flop

6/22/2007 1:06:46 PM

That would be a hard call for me with the reraise in front, especially considering the fact that you were first to act after the reraise. There's a good chance you had him beat, but no reason to risk it on a race.

6/22/2007 2:08:52 PM

We're playing a few $15 tourneys tonight in Raleigh, 2 NLHE tourneys, 1 Omaha tourney and 1 Stud tourney. Points leader for the night picks up some extra cash on top of any single tourney cashes. If you know me, PM me and I'll get you into the game (friend of mine is hosting a friendly game and has a couple seats open).

Greg

6/22/2007 6:25:20 PM

Holy crap I HAVE to stop short stacking 5/10nl+ on stars when I'm shitfaced.. I don't care if I'm +$1150 tonight with that strategy.. it cant' possibly be +EV.. WHERE'S MY POISE.. WHERE'S MY DISIPLINE?!?!?! WTF.. I'm RICH BITCH LOLOLOOLLLL


p.s. I hate poker

also.. I hate YOU..

6/23/2007 5:37:44 AM

OMG make that +1760.. I am a such a faggot. I honestly don't think I can stop until I lose it all.. I hate you all

6/23/2007 5:43:35 AM

Since when do you play stars?

How did you do for the night?

I signed up for rtr, but haven't received an e-mail from them back yet.

6/23/2007 11:09:51 AM

Sounds like I should get drunk and step up some limits.

Got money on full tilt now, ready for the TWW WSOP now.

6/23/2007 3:31:07 PM

No, don't. I am an idiot. Though short stacking was interesting, I definately think it is possible to be profitable. Despite my drunken stupor I was pretty good at "picking" on solid players when I knew they had a wide range. Meaning I know when they're likely just playing their position and when they have a real hand.


For example:

POKERSTARS GAME #10575889706: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($5/$10) - 2007/06/23 - 06:35:56 (ET)
Table 'Erato II' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 2: clamic ($1000 in chips)
Seat 4: Bavoulis ($1089.40 in chips)
Seat 5: noidroid ($427 in chips)
Seat 6: ThanksFish ($984.80 in chips)
noidroid: posts small blind $5
ThanksFish: posts big blind $10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to noidroid [Ah 7h]
clamic: folds
Bavoulis: raises $20 to $30
noidroid: calls $25
ThanksFish: raises $90 to $120
Bavoulis: folds
noidroid: raises $307 to $427 and is all-in
ThanksFish: calls $307
*** FLOP *** [5h Qc 9h]
*** TURN *** [5h Qc 9h] [Td]
*** RIVER *** [5h Qc 9h Td] [Js]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
noidroid: shows [Ah 7h] (high card Ace)
ThanksFish: shows [8c 9d] (a straight, Eight to Queen)
ThanksFish collected $882 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $884 | Rake $2
Board [5h Qc 9h Td Js]
Seat 2: clamic folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Bavoulis (button) folded before Flop
Seat 5: noidroid (small blind) showed [Ah 7h] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 6: ThanksFish (big blind) showed [8c 9d] and won ($882) with a straight, Eight to Queen



I lost a couple of those type hands towards the end and finshed at +$750 for my ~400 hands of short stacking 3/6, 5/10, and 10/20(min buying for 120/200/400 respectively). Interestingly enough, I also found it much easier to steal blinds from the button and cutoff. People were not going to 3-bet me from the blinds without a hand they were willing to call a push with, and they weren't calling me with marginal hands because I wasn't giving them implied odds to do so.

6/23/2007 5:31:27 PM

That is interesting about the implied odds short stacking, that might actually come in handy for the higher limits w/ solid players.

About to final table the first tourny i've played on full tilt. In 3/15 as of now. Also earlier in the tourney I molested Karina Jett (sp?). I had never heard of her, but shes a full tilt sponsored pro...and she sucks at Omaha Hi.

[Edited on June 23, 2007 at 6:09 PM. Reason : .]

6/23/2007 6:07:24 PM

Tournament question:

Seven players out of the original 13 in a $100 buy-in NLHE. Blinds are 1500/3000, and I've got about 20,500 chips. The blinds were also going up in the next 10 minutes.

A friend on mine raises all-in for ~10,000 chips in early position. It's folded to me in the small blind, and I look down to see A5-offsuit. I picked up a tell that my friend has connectors, but not A-x or a pocket pair.

Is it a good play to take a guaranteed 55-45 race when you're in danger of being blinded out? It was either that or try to pick up a hand later in that orbit.

FYI In the end I went all-in and won a race with 10-9 offsuit. I caught pocket kings a few hands later, doubled up, and went on to win.

[Edited on June 24, 2007 at 2:14 AM. Reason : wt4]

6/24/2007 2:01:29 AM

That's an amazing tell to be able to put someone on connectors.

6/24/2007 3:16:28 AM

please teach me

6/24/2007 3:35:03 AM

^^ It's not as impressive as you might think. As I was pondering the call he said "This is my favorite drawing hand." Pocket pairs aren't drawing hands, and A-x isn't either. Thus, the two types of hands that have me crushed are off the table. That leaves suited connectors. It should have occurred to me that suited connectors higher than my 5 would be a virtual 50-50 coinflip, not a 55-45, against my A-5. Then again, my friend's demeanor suggested a little uneasiness, so I put him on J-10 offsuit and called.

I don't like the play because, unlike moving in on an unraised pot, you can't win by forcing others to fold. I justified my call because I was short stacked and, in the event I lost the race, I could push later in the orbit with 10K and have at least a chance to (1) pick up the blinds or (2) double up and get back to where I started.

I had the money to gamble, and I believed I was in the lead, so I rolled the dice. This time it worked out.

6/24/2007 10:35:20 PM

If he said "this is my favorite drawing hand" after he pushed all-in, then he is kinda retarded. When I push with anything but AA/KK..... maybe AK, I do not want a caller. So giving someone that kind of information.... kinda silly.

6/25/2007 12:23:01 AM

i prefer non-fiction novels to this thread sometimes

6/25/2007 12:29:53 AM

Quote :

"If he said "this is my favorite drawing hand" after he pushed all-in, then he is kinda retarded. When I push with anything but AA/KK..... maybe AK, I do not want a caller. So giving someone that kind of information.... kinda silly."

if you're a shorty with a low M, you actually do want the call

even with horseshit

6/25/2007 12:13:49 PM

Your either pushing or folding obviously. A5o is on the lower end of my pushing range at your current chip stack, and for that matter it would only be an open push. With someone else already in the hand, your "first in vigor" is gone. I would wait a bit, with blinds going up you said in the next 10 mins, you can realistically hold out for better situations and/or hand to push, but again, thats just me.

BTW i've cashed in 6 straight MTTs over the weekend. 2nd in a Omaha Hi rebuy on Full Tilt for 230ish, 2nd in a 4/180 for 145ish, and 3 other minor (10-30ish) cashes. What the longest streak any of you guys have gone on for ITM finishes? (Note: I am attributing this new found wave of ITMs to some restealing techniques i've been working on in/or around the bubble.)

[Edited on June 25, 2007 at 1:43 PM. Reason : .]

[Edited on June 25, 2007 at 1:44 PM. Reason : .]

6/25/2007 1:42:37 PM

Quote :

"if you're a shorty with a low M, you actually do want the call even with horseshit"

Why would you call of half your stack rather than RR AI if you were in the pot? I would think you would be pushing any flop regardless?

6/25/2007 2:05:12 PM

I think he was saying that Erios should want the other player to call.

6/25/2007 2:07:59 PM

Ahh, yep, that makes more sense.

6/25/2007 2:13:06 PM

question, when a 4 flush comes on the river, does it make sense to throw out a min bet without anything? Looks very trappy, almost encouraging someone to raise. If they do not have a heart they would fold for sure, only 10+ of hearts would look you up. Maybe lower depepnding on pot size.

Does this make sense, anyone use this?

6/25/2007 7:50:35 PM

You are describing Fake Blocking Bet #2 from NoidRoid's NLHE Bag o' Tricks. It should usually be 1/4-1/3 of the pot, not a min bet.


A thinking player will interpret this bet as a mid flush that wants a cheap showdown. They will certainly call/raise with a good flush, but if they have a low flush or no flush they will do one of two things:

a) Decide that your hand can't stand a raise, and risk a significant amount of money testing that theory.

b) Decide that you might not be able to stand a raise, but then again you might also be executing *Fake Blocking Bet #1. Then decide "myeh, who knows, it's not worth the risk so I'll just fold."


There can be some value in making this bet in certain situations. Don't try it against extremely aggressive opponents or extremely terrible ones. Aggressive opponents will analyze the situation and often chose option 'a' from above, extremely terrible opponents will often call or raise with crap because their poker ego will simply not allow them to fold to a tiny bet on the river. "My God, the entire table will think I'm a giant pussy if I fold to this on the river" etc.







*Fake Blocking Bet #1 - A small river bet with a very strong hand. The idea is to goad an aggressive opponent into making a play at the pot because they interpret this as a real Blocking Bet, where you want to show down a medium strength hand cheaply.

6/25/2007 9:50:35 PM

If nobody bets the flop, I typically do bet the turn when a flush hits or the board pairs, and typically about half the pot size. I would say I take the pot down roughly 75% of the time, and for the other 25%.... well one of two things. The guy is drawing (in which case he probably just calls) or you get raised and you immediately muck. Of course if he just calls you have to figure out if he is drawing, or if he has already made his hand and is waiting for you to bet into him.

You really have to figure out what kind of player you are dealing with. I think that's why I do really well at heads up NLHE, because I can quickly adjust my style to capitalize on my opponents weaknesses. I find there are two types of fish. The type who will call anything (80%), and the type that play way too passively (20%). Given the 2, Mr. Passive is much easier to beat as long as you follow the golden rule "Fold if he's betting." Mr. Fold-Me-Not is much more likely to hit a bullshit hand to beat you. I mean seriously, nobody raises preflop in a heads-up situation with AK, flops Axy rainbow and folds after the flop to a random opponent.

But I digress.

6/26/2007 3:03:02 AM

Unless of course you can make reads like Erios and put your opponent on xy

6/26/2007 8:20:00 AM

On full tilt I just won a 26 buck sat token, how exactly does that work? Do I have to register for the 24+2 sat tournies or can I regester for several 5 buck sats? I've only been on FT for a few days, so i'm still getting used to their setup.

6/26/2007 10:28:22 AM

24+2

6/26/2007 10:38:07 AM

It sucks when I join a table not realizing its for a stupid token. I hate those things.

6/26/2007 10:43:28 AM

Haha yeh I did it by mistake also, oh well maybe I can take advantage and atleast sat my way into the real tourny.

6/26/2007 11:09:52 AM

Quote :

"Why would you call of half your stack rather than RR AI if you were in the pot? I would think you would be pushing any flop regardless?"

I did go all-in, sorry I didn't specify. Even then, there was only the big blind left to act, and he had a smaller stack than the 10K bet anyway.

6/26/2007 12:12:02 PM

Welp the sat token worked like a champ.

I qualified for the 200+whatever 5000000 guarenteed on Full Tilt on Sunday. Sweet.

6/26/2007 11:32:34 PM

$5million guaranteed tourney?????

6/27/2007 12:08:41 AM

Haha I wish...think I got trigger happy on the zeros. $500,000

6/27/2007 8:20:20 AM

Thinking about going to Vegas on Oct. Anyone know of any good deals?

6/28/2007 10:44:26 AM

Just as a benchmarks i'm going Aug 2-5, staying at Excalibur, for 504 round trip with 3 nights.

Further out, might be able to find cheaper? I've had the best luck w/ travelocity.com

6/28/2007 10:56:42 AM

Never stayed there. Is it nice?

6/28/2007 11:24:27 AM

I haven't either. Reviews seem ok, and the price was decent. I doubt i'll be staying in the room that much anyway.

I've stayed at MGM Grand, Imperial Palace, and Stratosphere before.

MGM Grand was very nice but a bit pricey. Imperial Palace was cheap, but the room wasn't bad, nor was the location. The Stratosphere was probably on par with MGM Grand but it's a bit off the strip, however it is cheap.

6/28/2007 11:39:06 AM

Welp first week on Full Tilt went pretty well:



So when is this Wolf Web World Series?

[Edited on July 1, 2007 at 9:19 PM. Reason : .]

7/1/2007 9:18:55 PM

nice week.

fyi, use http://www.officialpokerrankings.com for more stats.

7/2/2007 5:19:48 PM

I think if I remember correctly i'm in the 94 percentile on there, not too shabby.

[Edited on July 3, 2007 at 8:15 AM. Reason : .]

7/3/2007 8:14:45 AM

I'll be glad once they lift this stupid ban on american players so all the easy money will come back

7/3/2007 10:45:05 AM

Theres plenty of easy money now. But yeah i'm sure there will be a flux of new folks again once Bill Frist and the gang get squashed.

7/3/2007 11:02:32 AM

^^Its still very easy to play on pretty much all the main sites now. The only one you can't is Party.

What a joke this is, my bettering site allows you to bet on the WSOP main event. No single player should be any less than 1000-1, yet they have Ivey listed as 80-1 lol.

2007 World Series of Poker - Outright
Phil Ivey +8000
Phil Hellmuth +10000
Chris Fergusen +15000
Daniel Negreanu +8000
Eric Seidel +20000
Scotty Nguyen +20000


I really don't see how they came up with those odds considering its pretty much impossible for any of them to even make the final table, much less win the entire thing.

[Edited on July 3, 2007 at 12:12 PM. Reason : .]

7/3/2007 12:06:31 PM

they know someone will take those bets, so its free money for them. i bet the 'field' is 1:20, if they even have it listed.

7/3/2007 12:18:31 PM