Quote :

"Is it trump/vance? I can see that even though it defies conventional wisdom"

6/24

My thinking was bergum was too untested nationally and didn't seem particularly telegenic, scott was too much like pence, and rubio was too moderate/establishment. Trump wanted a fighter, someone that will do his dirty work if asked, someone strong on tv, young, desantis-like, etc etc etc.

7/15/2024 3:12:52 PM

Quote :

" Author J.D. Vance announces run for Senate SharePlay Video Vance has sought to dramatically reinvent himself as all in for Trump while embracing a Republican message of economic populism — and allies of Mandel are on the offense to prevent Vance from closing the gap in the race to replace retiring GOP Sen. Rob Portman. “I’m a Never Trump guy,” Vance said in an interview with Charlie Rose in 2016, a clip used in both the new ads. “I never liked him.” Both ads also feature a screenshot of a Vance tweet from October 2016. “My god what an idiot,” he wrote, referring to Trump. Vance expressed a similar sentiment in other interviews and since-deleted tweets from that time, including publicly mulling the idea of supporting Hillary Clinton, calling Trump “noxious” and “reprehensible.” The ads will play back those comments to viewers watching NFL and NCAA games in the Cincinnati television market, with a smaller buy on Fox News and a corresponding radio spot."

7/15/2024 3:19:09 PM

Quote :

"#New General Election Arizona - ?? Trump +7 Georgia - ?? Trump +4 Michigan - ?? Trump +2 North Carolina - ?? Trump +4 Nevada - ?? Trump +4 Pennsylvania - ?? Trump +3 Wisconsin - ?? Trump +5 YouGov A+ - about 900 RV (Each) - 7/12"

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1812895460451098805

Quote :

"The same YouGov Senate polls: Arizona -??Gallego +8 Michigan -??Slotkin +9 Nevada -??Rosen +7 Pennsylvania -??Casey +12 Wisconsin -??Baldwin +7"

https://twitter.com/jonfavs/status/1812906012862783653

[Edited on July 15, 2024 at 5:34 PM. Reason : Senate]

7/15/2024 5:33:50 PM

Me on Page 13:

Quote :

"If Trump picks Vance, Biden or aligned PACs should run nonstop ads featuring Vance's previous comments about Trump and people who voted for Trump."

Hit it, Lincoln Project:



Run it!

I know it won't matter, but it will make me feel better.

What a little self-interested yes man bitch.

7/15/2024 7:12:17 PM

Elon Musk donating $45Million a month to help elect trump

I can guarantee this was a big factor in picking jd Vance. Not that it matters but kind of annoying how much influence that scum bag has

7/15/2024 9:31:41 PM

Those polls are devastating and I honestly think Biden is a sinking ship for sure.

7/16/2024 8:57:51 AM

https://x.com/boringstein/status/1813251386974319099?s=46

Quote :

"one thing that is really infuriating is to see everyone try and play the "exposing hyporcisy" liberal pasttime in this moment. They dont care! no one cares! you need to beat them into the fucking ground. that's the only way to win; that's why they always win."

exactly how I’ve been feeling the last 24-48 hours and this perfectly sums it up

7/16/2024 12:56:27 PM

Quote :

"HYPORCISY"

7/16/2024 3:08:13 PM

There's hope yet!

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-polling-data-five-thirty-eight-1926226

Quote :

"Donald Trump's chances of winning the November 2024 presidential election are declining, according to a new aggregation of polls. FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker, which was originally published on July 8 and updated on July 16, shows Joe Biden with a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance... The poll also shows that the simulations indicate that Biden is on track for a three-point win. The polling website said its forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign 'fundamentals,' such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency... It comes after a Presidential Voting Intention poll of 3,601 swing state voters by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, found that Trump's margins over President Joe Biden have narrowed since June in two key swing states: Florida and North Carolina... ... Trump's margin is... narrowing in North Carolina, where he had a three-point lead over Biden in June. According to Redfield & Wilton Strategies' poll, his lead was slashed to only two points, with 44 percent of those polled saying they would vote for Trump, compared to Biden's 42 percent. The FiveThirtyEight tracker is similarly close, with Trump at 48 percent and Biden at 46 percent... The latest poll represents the worst result for Trump since May 20, according to FiveThirtyEight's prediction model. All the above polls were conducted or started before the assassination attempt on the former president on Saturday. However, polls published after the assassination attempt have suggested his support base is not getting any larger."

7/17/2024 1:42:05 PM

Quote :

"Donald Trump's chances of winning the November 2024 presidential election are declining"

oh yay! but that doesn't really track with how the momentum seems to be shifting, so let's look further into this newsweek dot com article

Quote :

"a Presidential Voting Intention poll of 3,601 swing state voters by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, found that Trump's margins over President Joe Biden have narrowed since June in two key swing states: Florida and North Carolina"

oh. so Trump is still beating Biden, but his lead has narrowed in a mere two states. well that doesn't really match the vibe of the headline does it

Quote :

"The poll (in Florida) shows that 45 percent of participants plan to vote for Trump, compared to Biden's 41 percent."

oh.

Quote :

"Trump's margin is also narrowing in North Carolina, where he had a three-point lead over Biden in June. According to Redfield & Wilton Strategies' poll, his lead was slashed to only two points, with 44 percent of those polled saying they would vote for Trump, compared to Biden's 42 percent."

SLASHED, they say! from 3 points to 2 points, still in favor of Trump.



when people (and I include Donald Trump as a people) say the media is the enemy of the people, it's mind games like this fucking article that they're talking about.

7/17/2024 2:31:45 PM

538’s model does show Biden ahead, but this model is based on assumptions that may not hold (including historical trends on consumer sentiment and economy etc)

But every other polling aggregate including Nate silvers own model (remember Nate is no longer part of 538) shows trump eeking out a narrow victory

There’s too many unknown variables now that models aren’t going to factor in well, but things are looking extremely dire for Biden still.

7/17/2024 2:41:40 PM

I admire some journalists, but I'd never want to be one.

7/17/2024 4:50:12 PM

The Dem leadership really screwed this one by letting Geriatric Joe take office without having any kind of succession/backup plan whatsoever, and now they are allowing this Weekend at Bernie’s shit show to happen.

If Biden comes to his senses (whatever is left of them) and does drop out, I really hope they nominate Hawk Tuah (w/ Pookie as VP)…she’s probably the only one who can unite the country right now and she’s anti-Trump. We need someone who can counter the all of the Trump propaganda littering social media and Hawk Tuah can do just that.

7/17/2024 7:03:40 PM

They could do a literal Weekend at Bernie's (Sanders).

7/17/2024 7:42:07 PM

Biden's got covid

[Edited on July 17, 2024 at 7:50 PM. Reason : ultimate dark brandon move to die of the trump virus as a means to #PassTheTorch]

7/17/2024 7:47:49 PM

Tells BET he'd leave if a doctor told him to, and next day he has covid. Hope this is the beginning!!!

7/17/2024 8:00:08 PM

I'm sure it'll be a serious case of it too...what a convenient off-ramp for Geriatric Joe. Now he, Jabroni Jill, Harebrained Hunter, and Maniac Major can just snooze off into the sunset in his Corvette (just hope you don't get stuck behind him in traffic)

7/17/2024 8:02:54 PM

Kooky Kamala / King Cooper 2024

7/17/2024 8:16:44 PM

https://www.threads.net/@sherrilynifill/post/C9i46S4MrGe/?xmt=AQGzPQgtpulvgD8htaKFUeVZxE7LQXFN0IKw57-deD4Gzw

Paul Manafort at rnc convention wtf

GOP has dropped all pretense of respecting democracy or decency or rule of law

7/17/2024 9:33:11 PM

https://www.threads.net/@nycsouthpaw/post/C9jD7qhxSxO/?xmt=AQGzr43-3gi1jQeQ862XGRDqvCpoqgd4UJm_JJ8mj5LQLQ

Quote :

" The Trump campaign printed signs that read “Mass Deportation Now!” for the convention floor."

7/17/2024 11:03:52 PM

I have a good idea. Let's put them on trains!

7/17/2024 11:08:20 PM

https://www.axios.com/2024/07/18/nancy-pelosi-biden-president-2024

Quote :

"Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has conveyed to President Biden and his campaign the political peril the Democratic Party faces if he remains atop the ticket, according to two people familiar with the matter."

7/17/2024 11:31:50 PM

^^ you need to stage them somewhere first. But you can’t adjudicate each individual’s case beforehand or spend too much time verifying their identity or it will take years

7/17/2024 11:37:56 PM

GTFO, Joe!

GTFO, Nancy!

7/17/2024 11:38:28 PM

7/18/2024 9:28:46 AM

What does that even mean? There is a border bloodbath? If there is, isn't that what conservatives want?

7/18/2024 9:33:54 AM

There's so many things that don't make sense to me.

7/18/2024 9:34:53 AM

I thought Trump wanted to send the National Guard to the border and start shooting or something?

START
TRUMP'S
BORDER
BLOODBATH!

7/18/2024 10:44:15 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9Vn1reEj-U

It's all in the rhetoric. Democrats are on the right side, and obviously shouldn't fall to the level of Republicans, but I feel like they lack charm. Not that the Republicans do (they don't need to, they have devotees), but I don't see any big Democrat with some charisma or someone that is "cool". They need some wit, some rough enthusiasm. I guess it's also just the symptom of society changing, when so much revolves around social media, and flows under through society. The Republican politicians honestly often look like soy boys compared to the Democrats and when they're the ones who are supposed to be "masculine" (I guess them pretending to be masculine is why I get this feeling), it says something.

[Edited on July 18, 2024 at 11:14 AM. Reason : 1]

7/18/2024 11:14:31 AM

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Biden is actually seeing a big jump in polling post debate, still behind trump but on a better trajectory

Wonder if people see the shooting attempt more as a reflection of the chaos that surrounds trump — which is the right take.

7/18/2024 11:15:14 AM

Chaos surrounding someone isn't in of itself indicative of their character, but in Trump's case specifically, yes.

7/18/2024 11:25:49 AM

More reports Biden is going to drop out this weekend. And obama supposedly keeps pushing for this.

Kamala has a very very difficult battle ahead… she’d do well to keep Joes chief of staff IMO. I’m not really sure what her agenda is going to be. Her tenure in California was about reducing sex crimes, but that’s not a big issue really.

[Edited on July 18, 2024 at 12:41 PM. Reason : ]

7/18/2024 12:40:11 PM

Kamala can't beat Trump, and Biden apparently literally can't handle beating Trump.

7/18/2024 1:34:20 PM

Biden reasserting he’s staying in the race

https://www.threads.net/@itsedsilha/post/C9k9WSfSPMy/?xmt=AQGz5KAwCzHFeA4CXcDzqWaFf15kaA0UPPRnUxHHs6BDhw

7/18/2024 4:34:38 PM

If true, he’s gonna pay for it at the battle box

7/18/2024 5:40:34 PM

https://www.threads.net/@ingenangiven/post/C9lGB74yN5f/?xmt=AQGz7mzCmubmLEvIqwWyOk9bo3h5LdJd1eYgIz-OhZY8jg

More rumors

Claiming Biden won’t endorse Harris or any candidate

This is going to be the biggest gamble in American history If it happens

If democrats succeed they’ll be a born again party.

If they fail, trump and the gop will have a historic mandate for a party that can’t win the popular vote

[Edited on July 18, 2024 at 7:26 PM. Reason : ]

7/18/2024 7:26:24 PM

Lots of rumors in both directions still today. AOC saying it doesn't make sense, it's going to screw dems for early voting. Other reports that Biden's family is pushing for him to drop out.

Meanwhile, trump got a big boost in polls today, either from the shooting or becoming the nominee. Trump gave a rambling nonsensical acceptance speech at the RNC by every account.

Trump tied in Minnesota with Biden now:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/

This would be a rout at the current polling levels. Trump also breaching 50% for the first time in national polls.

[Edited on July 19, 2024 at 2:43 PM. Reason : ]

7/19/2024 2:23:33 PM

Quote :

"Trump gave a rambling nonsensical acceptance speech at the RNC by every account."

Except like half of the country that supports him

7/19/2024 3:02:27 PM

Gonna be a rough 4+ more years.

7/19/2024 3:21:58 PM

Gonna be the most bonkers presidential election season in American history

Or maybe trump sales to a smooth victory

7/21/2024 2:12:33 PM

Another thought. No one alive has any idea what to do right now. We need the absolute smartest people thinking from first principles, but I have a feeling the democrats are going to put their least creative thinkers to run this based on grasping to past precedence that doesn’t apply

7/21/2024 2:18:22 PM

Hopefully they've been thinking about that for weeks.

7/21/2024 2:20:26 PM

Biden endorses Harris.

7/21/2024 2:21:23 PM

https://www.threads.net/@marcslove/post/C9sc0LkORxX/?xmt=AQGznZlq2Wyylr1uNH8OH7lpu33qecpCAPQN_KqyMeMVLQ

7/21/2024 2:25:22 PM

Kamala donations

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/social-bfp-july-2024-v2

7/21/2024 2:27:50 PM

Still not clicking your link

7/21/2024 2:36:25 PM

Who does Kamala pick

Strategically cooper is a good choice because we’re a swing state and he won’t outshine her

7/21/2024 2:41:38 PM

Aaron Sorkin would probably guess that she picks Joe Biden as VP

7/21/2024 2:42:45 PM

Not sure I see Roy Cooper exciting anyone beyond a few North Carolinians. NC would be a nice Electoral pickup, though.

7/21/2024 2:49:52 PM

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

Harris was polling 1% higher than Biden in recent polls so this is an instant win for democrats polling wise

7/21/2024 3:17:08 PM