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10/1/2007 5:58:30 PM

Fucking christ, first hand of a MTT just now, I get KK utg and raise it up to 100, get reraised to 200, 3 callers, so I push, A4 calls me, as does QQ. The QQ rivers a Q high straight. Great way to start the night off.

10/1/2007 6:48:25 PM

yeah i get pretty livid losing a 56% bet too



[Edited on October 1, 2007 at 7:21 PM. Reason : roll for effect]

10/1/2007 7:21:19 PM

We went all in pre flop. I don't know everything about poker, but how is KK vs QQ preflop only 56%?

[Edited on October 1, 2007 at 8:49 PM. Reason : .]

10/1/2007 8:49:38 PM

oh look it's even worse than that with a suited ace.

Quote :

" pokenum -h ks kc - qc qh - ad 4d Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Ks Kc 725055 52.89 641171 46.78 4528 0.33 0.530 Qc Qh 233289 17.02 1132937 82.65 4528 0.33 0.171 Ad 4d 407882 29.76 958344 69.91 4528 0.33 0.299 "

10/1/2007 9:00:46 PM

Like I said, I dont know everything. I would have rather lost to A4 hitting the Ace than the fuck hitting a straight with QQ. Hell, him hitting a Q would have been easier to take.

Just a little heads up. SportsInteraction has a $1k guaranteed $1 rebuy as part of their special NFL kickoff going. This is the last week. This normally wouldn't be a big deal, but only 50 something people played in it last week. Pretty ripe if you ask me.

It starts at 10pm, reg ends at 9:55.

[Edited on October 1, 2007 at 9:41 PM. Reason : .]

10/1/2007 9:36:42 PM

Quote :

"I would have rather lost to A4 hitting the Ace than the fuck hitting a straight with QQ"

So, if QQ hits a set it is ok, but if QQ hits a straight its bs?

10/1/2007 10:32:28 PM

well the fact that it's less likely to happen is why it hurts. it's like your AA losing to KK on a flush


just stings.

10/1/2007 11:43:09 PM

Quote :

"So, if QQ hits a set it is ok, but if QQ hits a straight its bs?"

Pretty much, just like he^ said. I would rather them hit a 2 outter than some BS 4 to the straight on the board.

And no, QQ hitting a set is never "OK" but I can deal with it better than having an over pair to an under pair and them hitting a straight when we both go all in pre flop. I thought this was pretty much a common opinion? No?

[Edited on October 2, 2007 at 12:57 AM. Reason : .]

10/2/2007 12:56:46 AM

No.

10/2/2007 7:55:32 AM

hish bought the farha book on omaha

he preordered and was released like today i think

he's a sammy fanboi

10/2/2007 9:09:49 AM

bout to pwn all zee noobs wit mah omaha styleeee skillllzzz

10/2/2007 1:34:26 PM

So was this a horrible call, or me not betting enough preflop? Did it look like I had jack shit, or did this fool put me on the set and was pot committed by then? I've been trying to change my MTT play and I usually survive quite a lot of fish busting out, but then I either get sucked out, or I don't loosen up and build healthy stacks. For once, I thought I'd have a nice cushion to sit on.

Quote :

"Full Tilt Poker Game #3730353175: The Fifty-Fifty (28181518), Table 30 - 50/100 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:49:40 ET - 2007/10/01 Seat 1: Ltownfh7 (2,310) Seat 2: NOXQZEZ (2,415) Seat 3: panda bear II (2,848) Seat 4: mully07 (6,328) Seat 5: bcsft (2,250) Seat 6: Bauer29 (2,110) Seat 7: idiotray (1,974) Seat 8: chachichachi (4,830) Seat 9: BlkJkPorter (1,625) NOXQZEZ posts the small blind of 50 panda bear II posts the big blind of 100 The button is in seat #1 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to bcsft [Jh Jd] mully07 folds bcsft raises to 400 Bauer29 has 15 seconds left to act Bauer29 calls 400 idiotray folds chachichachi has 15 seconds left to act chachichachi folds BlkJkPorter folds Ltownfh7 folds NOXQZEZ folds panda bear II calls 300 *** FLOP *** [3h Jc Ks] panda bear II checks bcsft checks Bauer29 bets 800 panda bear II calls 800 bcsft raises to 1,850, and is all in Bauer29 folds panda bear II has 15 seconds left to act panda bear II calls 1,050 bcsft shows [Jh Jd] panda bear II shows [Td Qd] *** TURN *** [3h Jc Ks] [2s] *** RIVER *** [3h Jc Ks 2s] [9h] bcsft shows three of a kind, Jacks panda bear II shows a straight, King high panda bear II wins the pot (5,750) with a straight, King high bcsft stands up"

10/2/2007 2:00:43 PM

I'm confused. You called with the second nuts on the flop and you're asking if this is a bad play?

10/2/2007 2:06:30 PM

Looks like a pretty standard play. And a horrible one on the other guys part, but that's pokahh.

10/2/2007 2:13:52 PM

What? There's no way the other guy had KK.

10/2/2007 2:20:10 PM

You can't ONLY play the nuts.

10/2/2007 2:21:39 PM

oh, right.



just didn't know if in that point in the tournament, I should have made a larger bet to get that guy to fold preflop.

[Edited on October 2, 2007 at 2:24 PM. Reason : .]

10/2/2007 2:22:16 PM

Thats like saying "oh I better fold my boat because someone could have four of a kind"

10/2/2007 2:23:08 PM

and i didn't call on the flop, i check raised all in, which I guess in retrospect was like "HAY GUYZ I HAV TEH SET" and the other guy figured he had to gamble with those 8 10? outs.


[Edited on October 2, 2007 at 2:27 PM. Reason : .]

10/2/2007 2:26:23 PM

I dont get it.

he made a blocking bet against an original raiser (that you yourself proclaim to be tight/weak) then called off getting 4.7:1 on a like 1:4.1 prop.

he loses value by folding there.

standard on both sides.

[Edited on October 2, 2007 at 2:51 PM. Reason : less]

10/2/2007 2:46:22 PM

How are there 10 outs?

10/2/2007 2:48:25 PM

yarlly

more like 5.14 00ts

10/2/2007 2:50:38 PM

Im flying a plane full of people to ACY on saturday. Going to have some fun at a $300+$40 at Borgata on Saturday (hopefully).

10/2/2007 3:14:55 PM

so is that farha book any good?

10/3/2007 6:59:17 PM

I envision the Farha book saying "fire out raises with any two cards on every street until you get RR".

10/3/2007 7:23:07 PM

Never occured to you that your flush wasn't any good there.... or moreover that someone probably had a boat?

10/3/2007 8:06:34 PM

anyone know where I can go to watch WSOP Main event from last night? I'm at work all night and need something to do.

10/3/2007 9:04:13 PM

^^ look how much more it was to call vs. whats in the pot.

did that ever occur?

10/3/2007 9:34:09 PM

You sucked at playing the first hand.

10/4/2007 12:36:57 AM

C'mon who wants to stake a brotha? I'm "super hot" lol.

10/4/2007 1:43:13 AM

Strange thing happened last night, besides the fact that I lost $100 in 10 minutes.

7 consecutive hands, 7 pocket pair (in Texas Hold'em): 9's 5's 4's 8's 10's 10's Jacks (In fact, of the 13 hands I was dealt, 8 of them were pocket pair -- the other pocket pair were Queens on the second hand).

I was wondering what the odds were of receiving 7 consecutive pocket pair in 13 hands. Odds of a pocket pair are 1/27. Each hand is an independent (Bernoulli) trial. Using the inclusion-exclusion principle we get:

P(N trials, probability of individual success p, n consecutive successes) -- p=1/27 n=7, N=13
=P(N-1,p,n) + p^n*(1-p)*(1-P(N-n-1,p,n))

Using the fact that P(N < n,p,n) = 0 (you can't have 7 pocket pair in a row if you haven't had 7 hands) and P(N=n,p,n)=p^n (probability of being dealt 7 pair in 7 hands), we have a recursive function to compute the odds.

P(13,1/27,7) = 6.479E-10, or...
1 in 153,330,800 (i.e. You're slightly MORE likely to win the lottery in a single play)


Now, I've played a lot more than 13 hands of hold'em in my life. What are the odds of getting 7 pair in a row in 2500 hands? (2500 is the best estimate I have of he number of hands I've played, ~50 hands each time I play and playing 50 times)
1 in 4,355,456

What If I played 10 times that many hands?
1 in 434,611

What are the odds of getting 7 pocket pair in a row in 100,000 hands (1 year at 2,000 hands/week -- a few hours a day for an entire year)?
1 in 108,633

The odds of it happening in 1,000,000 hands (roughly the number of hands a career player plays in a lifetime)?
1 in 10,863

10/4/2007 2:58:46 PM

k

10/4/2007 3:10:19 PM

how are you figuring your instances

10/4/2007 3:13:01 PM

Quote :

"Odds of a pocket pair are 1/27."

Try again.

10/4/2007 3:19:43 PM

just doing the math off the top i have odds of pocket pair =

(4/52)*(3/51) * 13 = 156/2652 = 78/ 1326 = 39/663 = 1/17

10/4/2007 3:53:06 PM

Heh, you made it a little harder that needed. 4/52 * 13 = 1

10/4/2007 4:01:28 PM

...typo...

[Edited on October 4, 2007 at 4:27 PM. Reason : actually i misremembered the number. i should know better.]

10/4/2007 4:26:52 PM

I'm not really sure I understand your point. I could pick 7 arbitrary hands and show the probability of me getting those 7 hands in a row.

10/4/2007 4:29:06 PM

^^^good call, i was just trying to keep it basic without a calc, but yea that's a nice short cut

10/4/2007 4:42:07 PM

anybody wanna play tonight?

10/4/2007 8:17:41 PM

here's a hand from last night i would like some critique of. 1/2 nl, i have about 115 in chips. mp1 has about 250 in chips, mp2 and lp have roughly the same as me. all players are pretty solid, although AFTER the hand i realized mp1 is a bit loose with his calls, but whatever. he was fairly new to the table and seemed solid thus far. my table image is very tight with half the table, and considerably tight with the other half.

i have q8d in the bb. folds to mp1 who makes it 7, mp2 and lp call, i call.

flop comes 6d7c2d. i check, mp1 bets 25, mp2 calls (seems strong, but i'm not sure), lp calls, i call.

turn is the 8s, i go all in for 79, mp1 thinks for a while and calls, mp2 calls all in for 71, lp calls.

river brings the 9d, i take the pot with a flush, mp1 showed 99, mp2 had a set on the flop, and lp has 45 for the straight.


*******
My turn bet is obviously the part of the hand i want to talk about. My rationale behind the bet was that i felt the pot was large enough to where if mp1 bet 50 on the turn and both players stayed in i would be getting the right price to draw and the flush anyway, so i would call his bet, so i figured i might as well put in the bet myself, thinking i could fold an overpair there. i think he might've folded if he wasn't open-ended, but who knows. i had lp on a draw, it just so happened that he got there with the 8, and mp2 who likes to slow play had a set. But like i said, i thought there was a chance my bet could take the pot down, and if 2 people put in a decent size bet on the turn i was calling anyway.......like i said my table image is pretty tight at this point in the night, is the turn bet a donk move or what?

10/4/2007 9:09:15 PM

The turn could possibly make someone's straight or two pair. Personally, I would have folded preflop.

10/4/2007 9:39:38 PM

I have one seat available in the plane (had a cancel). Leaving tomorrow at 3 from RDU. Should arrive around 6 at ACY. have lodging at Trop for first night (Friday). You'll have to share a bed (if its even used). The bad news is the place is solidly booked up on Saturday night. I had planned on flying back late saturday evening, however, I dont think the weather is going to cooperate. Means you'll play till Sunday morning, or go to the rental car and take a nap I knows its ghetto, but thats the way it is. Your share of everything is $150. Send me a PM tonight if you are interested.

10/4/2007 10:30:17 PM

^^i thought my tight image might fold bottom two pair there, also i'm getting 5:1 on my money preflop, not to mention implied odds since i put mp1 on a pretty big hand. i think taking a flop with that hand is definetly the way to go, i mean it's kind of a loose game preflop.

10/4/2007 10:54:05 PM

Quote :

"I'm not really sure I understand your point. I could pick 7 arbitrary hands and show the probability of me getting those 7 hands in a row."

I wasn't talking about the probability of getting THOSE 7 pair in a row. I was talking about getting ANY 7 pair in a row. The figures are skewed because I wasn't thinking and used 1/27 instead of 1/17 most are off by a factor of 2-3. I already made myself look like an idiot, so no point in recalculating everything.

Sure you're far less likely to get AK suited 7 times in a row (p=8/52*1/51), but if it happened to me, I'd still be thinking "What are the odds of that?"

The fact of the matter is it is extraordinarily unlikely. Of course, it's only relevant because I personally consider a pocket pair a fortuitous event.

10/5/2007 12:19:50 AM

this is not a trolling attempt, but i would reconsider that last statement in conjunction with how you lost $100 in 10 minutes on those hands. I mean granted you might've hit 8 sets and gotten sucked out on, but maybe you should re-evaluate how you hand wired pairs.

10/5/2007 12:42:44 AM

Quote :

"it's only relevant because I personally consider a pocket pair a fortuitous event."

Right. That was my point. I was saying I could pick 7 arbitrary types of hands.....

10/5/2007 8:21:03 AM

limpy you never answered my questions =[

10/5/2007 10:19:05 AM

Quote :

"The figures are skewed"

10/5/2007 10:20:51 AM