^Yes they are, but the correct values are easily calculated.

^^ I didn't see your questions. What do you want to know? The only question I see is "How are you figuring your instances?" and I don't know what you mean by that.

I didn't use combinatorics to find the odds because 'the number of ways to make n consecutive pair in N hands' is not easy to obtain. There is plenty of literature available on finding the probability of consecutive successes (usually called "runs") in a series of Bernoulli trials. The formula I posted is correct, just the expression for p was not. A pair means you're dealt 1 card, then a matching card: (52/52)*(3/51) = 1/17. If you plug this into the formula I posted before you get about 1 in 61 million for the odds of getting 7 consecutive pair in 13 hands. Assuming every hand is played to the end you're actually about as likely to get 2 consecutive royal flushes (odds are 4*(47 choose 2)/(52 choose 7) -- 1 in 30,000 or so).

as David0603 has so nicely pointed out, these odds don't really mean much. when you play a lot unlikely things will happen. It's more of an exercise in statistics.

p(13,1/17,7)= 1/61,732,367
p(13,1/30940,2)= 1/79,775,997 (i got the 1 in 30,940 off the internet, rather than evaluating the above expression)

[Edited on October 5, 2007 at 3:23 PM. Reason : correction]

10/5/2007 3:16:06 PM

Quote :

"The odds of it happening in 1,000,000 hands (roughly the number of hands a career player plays in a lifetime)?"

I'd up that figure some

10/5/2007 3:28:26 PM

Quote :

"2 consecutive royal flushes (odds are 4*(47 choose 2)/(52 choose 7) -- 1 in 30,000 or so). "

well that's just horribly wrong considering the odds of a single royal are higher than 1 in 30,000.



[Edited on October 5, 2007 at 3:48 PM. Reason : like, a lot higher]

10/5/2007 3:47:33 PM

no more input on my hand.....oh well

10/5/2007 5:07:51 PM

^^1 in 30940 is the odds of 1 royal flush. at the bottom of that post are the odds of 2 consecutive in 13 hands. (notice the (52 choose 7), which is the number of ways to make 1 hand, not 2)

why not read the whole post:

Quote :

"you get about 1 in 61 million for the odds of getting 7 consecutive pair in 13 hands. Assuming every hand is played to the end you're actually about as likely to get 2 consecutive royal flushes"

[Edited on October 5, 2007 at 5:16 PM. Reason : ]

10/5/2007 5:12:58 PM

Why not make a post that doesn't make you look like an idiot?

10/5/2007 5:31:42 PM

[Edited on October 6, 2007 at 10:56 AM. Reason : e]

10/6/2007 10:50:38 AM

2 weeks ago I hit the $1000 mark on Bodog

Now I just hit the $2100 mark

I've been playing two .25/.50 tables and one .50/1 table since I got to the $1500 mark

I played very very well in the .50/1 table and I think it is time to 3 table .50/1 games

Recommendations?

10/6/2007 7:15:33 PM

3 tabling .5/1 will put ~300 of your 2100 into play, thats like err about 15%. Do it, but if you find yourself losing a lot, don't be to proud to step back down.

10/6/2007 7:27:15 PM

Agreed

10/6/2007 7:39:24 PM

attn online poker players. Do not pee in empty beer bottles you just got done with unless you have a special spot reserved for "pee bottles" You could find yourself way deep in a MTT and have to urinate, and your only option is to discard liquids into an empty bottle, only to find yourself sipping on said bottle when reaching for a stray beer.....

10/6/2007 10:37:17 PM

Damnit

10/6/2007 10:38:12 PM

laptops,ftw

10/7/2007 5:57:45 PM

Nothing is more satisfying than taking a dump while playing poker. Gotta love laptops.

10/7/2007 6:26:29 PM

what about getting a bj from a hot chick while watching 2 other gorgeous young ladies lezzing out in the same bed?

10/8/2007 1:14:29 AM

I stand corrected.

10/8/2007 1:40:57 AM

Not sure if pstars even allows player transfers, but i'd like to put some money on here, anyone out there want to trade cash for online transfer? i'm looking to do about 400, i could come give you the cash whenever.

10/10/2007 6:30:39 PM

Try NoidRoid

10/10/2007 8:25:18 PM

yea, he hooked me up with UB before, but there's no omaha on that site. i've been playing live poker so i haven't kept up with a lot of the online stuff, but can you use debit cards again or is it still a bitch to deposit onto sites?

10/10/2007 8:27:45 PM

you can on FT

[Edited on October 10, 2007 at 8:34 PM. Reason : pop that visa ngr]

10/10/2007 8:34:27 PM

FT won't let me withdrawal for some reason. Is there a period between deposits you must wait?

Also, I tend to play way way too tight, especially in MTTs when it's time to loosen up. I'm juggling the idea of taking like half a xanax during my play. This seems like it could be either genius or monumentally stupid.

10/11/2007 6:34:37 PM

i vote for the latter

10/12/2007 3:33:33 AM

I vote for adderol (sp?). Stuff makes me jumpy and itching to play pots.

Only done it twice for poker. Both times at a 2/4 table.

Result 1 - up 800 bucks in ~80 hands.
Result 2 - down 400 ~3 hands.

10/12/2007 12:18:11 PM

I won a sit&go last night.



$4 buy in


$12 first place.



w00t!

10/12/2007 12:18:54 PM

I played in a 2/4 table last night for the fuck of it

QQ my first hand and I won $100

I left before the next hand and went back to my normal .5/1 game

10/12/2007 1:34:58 PM

i'm thinking of giving up online poker. despite making money, it's become all too apparent it's sucking my life away.

10/12/2007 2:28:21 PM

Ok,

I read up and the normal hard players are out of town. So it is back to the weekly mixed game and try it again.

10/12/2007 4:35:00 PM

^^ I actually feel the same way

I just don't have time to sit and play all the time anymore, and it's just not enjoyable to me

maybe a weekly or every other week live poker game with some buds, but just none of this balls to the wall type poker I used to want to play

10/12/2007 4:38:33 PM

playing 200/400 nl high as balls on pot cakes.

FullTiltPoker Game #2884739191: Table Vasari (heads up) - $200/$400 - No Limit Hold’em - 6:25:00 ET - 2007/07/08
Seat 1: pr1nnyraid ($48,598)
Seat 2: perkyshmerky ($47,898)
pr1nnyraid has 5 seconds left to act
pr1nnyraid posts the small blind of $200
perkyshmerky posts the big blind of $400
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to pr1nnyraid 8?6?
pr1nnyraid calls $200
perkyshmerky raises to $1,200
pr1nnyraid has 15 seconds left to act
pr1nnyraid raises to $4,000
perkyshmerky calls $2,800
*** FLOP *** 3?8?Q?
perkyshmerky checks
pr1nnyraid checks
*** TURN *** 3?8?Q?8?
perkyshmerky checks
pr1nnyraid bets $7,000
perkyshmerky has 15 seconds left to act
perkyshmerky raises to $14,000
pr1nnyraid has 15 seconds left to act
pr1nnyraid raises to $44,598, and is all in
perkyshmerky calls $29,898, and is all in
pr1nnyraid shows 8?6?
perkyshmerky shows K?Q?
Uncalled bet of $700 returned to pr1nnyraid
*** RIVER *** 3?8?Q?8?4?
pr1nnyraid shows three of a kind, Eights
perkyshmerky shows two pair, Queens and Eights
pr1nnyraid wins the pot ($95,795.50) with three of a kind, Eights
perkyshmerky is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $95,796 | Rake $0.50
Board: 3?8?Q?8?4?
Seat 1: pr1nnyraid (small blind) showed 8?6? and won ($95, 795.50) with three of a kind, Eights
Seat 2: perkyshmerky (big blind) showed K?Q? and lost with two pair, Queens and Eights

for the hand in the video.

would make noidroid proud

10/14/2007 2:54:40 PM

Just got back from the beach. The gambling boats in Little River, SC are pretty fun, definitely aren't classy, but the game is softtt.

Played 2/5 NL and won a lot. Also, sat to the left of Hevad Khan's little brother (annoying man from WSOP who dances and chants) and he was an awful player and equally annoying.

10/14/2007 4:29:43 PM

here's a hand from a tourney tonight.....$33nlhe on ps, 32 players left out of 194, top 18 get paid.



i have a tight table image, and 4320 in chips (slightly below average), blinds are at 200/400 with 25 ante.....i'm 2 off the button with a-9o, it folds around to me, what do you do?

10/15/2007 5:20:11 AM

I push.

10/15/2007 6:18:51 AM

i mean that's what i did, i obviously lost to 77 on the button, but i just hate risking my whole tourney there with a-9o u know? i mean most calls are going to have me beat, but there's no real alternative i guess.....if i make it like 1100, and get reraised i guess i COULD fold, but i mean that obviously sucks bc it's too much of my stack.....i almost wish i could somehow fold the hand in that spot, but idk....i mean risking 4300 for 800 doesn't seem worth it

10/15/2007 6:47:06 AM

you M was like 5.5

if you're going to raise, you push.

otherwise you fold

if you raise to 1100, and im bigstack in the bb and it folded to me,

im reraising with 22+, any ace, and any two face cards.

A9 is ahead of this.

plus, are you trying to limp into the money, or win?

10/15/2007 7:28:11 AM

Quote :

"i obviously lost to 77 on the button"

It wasn't obvious to meeeee


Just got back from Vegas. Boring summary to follow...

10/15/2007 8:12:13 AM

the David0603 Vegas Trip report:

Day 1:


This Morning:

10/15/2007 8:34:49 AM

^LOL

^^i meant obviously i lost, otherwise i wouldn't be rethinking the hand.....not that i lost to 77 on the button

10/15/2007 8:58:34 AM

Hey, at least I didn't lose the rubber band too.

The trip was great. Played poker a few hours each day. Not too many exciting hands. I stayed Planet Hollywood (formerly the Aladdin).

I did well except the last night when I lost money playing 1-2 at Binions. My flopped trips ace kicker eventually lost to trips K kicker after he spiked the K on the river, but its cool b/c now I get to say I've played at Binions. Old Vegas was pretty fun. They have a huge light show and I'd recommend you check it out once if you've never been before. There is also plenty of cheap booze and their blackjack has great odds if you're into that sort of game.

I played 2-5 at Borgata that afternoon with John Rooper. I grinded it out for an hour or so when I looked down to see "The Turner" (6-8 suited for your n00bs) in early position. I just limped in and ended up hitting top pair. I throw out $20 into a $25 pot and get 4 callers (fuck!) We ended up checking down to the river and my pair of 8s held up to take down the pot. Guess everyone else was on a draw.

The day before I played 1-2 at the Flamingo. I had planned on playing at Caesars, but there was a 15 person waitlist, although in hindsight it probably would have gone pretty quickly considering the size of the poker room. The Flamingo game was pretty easy. One donk had sucked out a few hands in a row against some other guys and had about $1000 in chips. I sit down and a few hands in I get aces all in preflop vs 10-10 and take down a $200 pot. A few hands later I flop a set with jacks, but the turn card hit the straight/flush draw. The other guy ended up having KK, but neither of us could bet our hands with such a shitty looking board. I ended up hanging out with Jon Tuner the rest of the night. He was taking the day off so we just kind of caught up.

The first night I was too lazy to walk anywhere so I just played 1-2 at the place I was staying. I had been used to playing 4 tables of 6 max so I had to get used to the fact I wasn't going to get tons of awesome hands every hour. I hadn't played live in a while so I thought starting out plaiyng 1-2 would be a good idea. I played close to two hours and was pretty much card dead. My best hands had been A7 A4 and some suited 1 gappers. I literally had won no pot and had only played 2 non blinds hands. The only reason I stayed here was b/c of this guy at the table who I assumed was drunk. He started off doing 10X bb raises every few rounds, followed by 20X bb raises, followed by all ins. He wasn't doing it often enough to be annoying but he did get called a few times and his rags never won. At one point he was doing shots at the table so I was hoping just to win $100 off of him and call it a night since I had been up about 20 hours straight at that point.

I finally wake up with AA. First pocket pair all trip. I'm in early mid position. Normally I'd throw out a raise here, but I'm just hoping drunky feels like going all in so I just limp. Much to my surprise tighty mcghee next to me opens up for $10 and loosy mcghee reraises to $20 directly after him. It folds around to me. I could have reraised at this point but if I did my hand would be painfully obvious. I decided I was going to call hoping to double up or get busted trying. Well, lo and behold tighty decides to go all in for the rest of his $80 stack. I try to look pissed and slowly motion as if I'm going to muck my cards while loosy is deciding what to do. He eventually calls and I push for another $100 on top. You could tell he was really pissed at this point thinking wtf did he get himself into but he wants to gamble so he calls. He flips over KJ off, tighty of course has KK and I take down the pot with AA. Not a bad take for 1 hand in 2 hours of playing.

I didn't play too much poker, but made enough to pay for the trip. Aside from poker I played a little blackjack and watched another guy play some craps. We saw Blue Man Group which was awesome and spent the last day hanging out in the hot tub and what Vegas trip would be complete without some random chick running naked around the hotel pool...

10/15/2007 10:26:48 AM

Got a question about the rake on PokerStars.


How big does the pot have to be in order to generate $.40 in rake? I am trying to decide what level of limit would be best to grind out what little bonus they gave me for depositing. I am thinking around $8? Does that sound right?

10/15/2007 5:28:23 PM

Yeah, I believe its 5%.

10/15/2007 5:32:17 PM

I think its kinda gay, they give you partial FPPs for tournament entry fees, but they don't give you partials for cash games, you pretty much have to play .5/1 in order to generate pots worth playing to get the required rake.

10/15/2007 5:35:31 PM

haha, fucking hilarious what some of these idiots will play early in a MTT.



Table '63858830 251' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: smackdown4ya (4895 in chips)
Seat 2: stateofyou (2180 in chips)
Seat 4: VenomPsycho (1340 in chips)
Seat 5: OopvcoO (860 in chips)
Seat 6: speedonbase (2860 in chips)
Seat 7: mamalove11 (1375 in chips)
Seat 8: stewee45 (5684 in chips)
Seat 9: Avantanio (2255 in chips)
stateofyou: posts small blind 15
VenomPsycho: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to VenomPsycho [Ks Ad]
OopvcoO: calls 30
speedonbase: folds
macnab242 is connected
mamalove11: calls 30
stewee45: calls 30
Avantanio: folds
smackdown4ya: folds
stateofyou: calls 15
VenomPsycho: raises 170 to 200
OopvcoO: calls 170
mamalove11: folds
stewee45: calls 170
stateofyou: folds
*** FLOP *** [9s 6c 2c]
VenomPsycho: bets 300
OopvcoO: calls 300
stewee45: folds
*** TURN *** [9s 6c 2c] [As]
VenomPsycho: bets 370
OopvcoO: calls 360 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [9s 6c 2c As] [8c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
VenomPsycho: shows [Ks Ad] (a pair of Aces)
OopvcoO: shows [8s 2s] (two pair, Eights and Deuces)
OopvcoO collected 1980 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1980 | Rake 0
Board [9s 6c 2c As 8c]
Seat 1: smackdown4ya (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: stateofyou (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: VenomPsycho (big blind) showed [Ks Ad] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 5: OopvcoO showed [8s 2s] and won (1980) with two pair, Eights and Deuces



I guess he had to play the raise preflop, he was SUITED afterall.

10/15/2007 6:26:19 PM

That's why I don't even bother c-betting very often in the early stages of a MTT unless i've at least partially hit the flop (I realize you hit the turn, but still).

10/15/2007 6:46:57 PM

why make your preflop raise so huge?

you could've had the same action (except maybe check the river), but kept the bets smaller so you didn't bust your whole tourny early with one pair.

10/15/2007 8:41:14 PM

at that stack level looks like a rebuy to me

10/15/2007 8:53:01 PM

Quote :

"why make your preflop raise so huge? "

The pot at the time was 150aprox....I bet 200 to get BS hands out, or so I thought....I was basically just trying to take it down at that point, I didn't expect a call. On the flop, I didn't think he hit it, so I put out a feeler bet. He called, when the ace hit, I was pretty sure I had the best hand, so I pushed the remainder of my stack thinking I had the best, which I did. Sure his call on the turn wasn't as bad as the flop, but still, fucking 82suited to an almost 8x the BB raise. Shit like this just amazes me.


Not saying it was the right play, these were just my thoughts as I played it out....

[Edited on October 15, 2007 at 9:42 PM. Reason : .]

10/15/2007 9:41:50 PM

I mean i understand your thought process, but anyone that is gonna fold for 200, is probably gonna fold for 120 or 150, i mean the way you played it you kinda put your whole tourny life on ak, which that early in the tourny is a bit too risky for my tastes, yea he had 8-2 and got lucky, but what if he was slowplaying trips the whole way, i mean your m is way to high to go busto with tptk there


i really want some advice on using pt from you guys......i'm gonna play limit holdem, and i just got hte software, so what am i supposed to do now? open up like 5 tables on ps and just let the hand histories save to my comp or what? what's the best way to gather info on other players?

10/15/2007 10:08:57 PM

Use poker ace hud in conjunction with it and you can open up a ton of tables and go to bed and let your computer log players all night.

10/15/2007 10:53:36 PM

Quote :

"Shit like this just amazes me."

Guess you haven't been playing long. What was the buy in?

10/15/2007 10:54:26 PM

^^yea i mean i have pahud also, but i mean i thought that was only for while i was playing.....there's no benefit to having it running while just collecting data on pt right?

10/16/2007 2:24:13 AM