2

a lot of people enjoy living high up. I live high up in downtown Atlanta and love the view of the city right outside my window. The position of the sun is constantly changing the way the view looks, and it never gets boring. It's also cool to be able to see the news helicopters and stuff flying right outside your window

from a real estate standpoint, I can't really say, because the prices of condos down here are highly inflated, but a lot of people just don't care about the cost if they can afford it and want to live in a luxury building

It's worked out well for me living here, because I also work in the city and can walk to and from work, and can walk to just about anywhere I want to go eat, see movies, etc.

9/27/2006 12:47:53 PM

Quote :

"It is around the rest of the country but not in the Triangle. We are one of the few markets in the country that are still growing even in the decline."

Its about to decline, coming from a real estate agent, its about to decline pretty badly. After election time, just remember I said that.

9/27/2006 12:53:27 PM

The rate of the Traingle's population increase is still increasing... the real estate market is not going to decline. Agent opinions are a dime a dozen.

9/27/2006 12:57:21 PM

Well this is a different type of opinion. I'm not just any agent I'm an analyst. This is what we do. And i'll tell you, Raleigh is NOT staying strong...its good now, but its slowly hitting rock bottom.

9/27/2006 1:00:56 PM

ok, i'll bite.

Back it up with data.

9/27/2006 1:02:19 PM

i agree with bdigital - back it up with something other than - "trust me i'm an analyst"

9/27/2006 1:06:58 PM

Of course Raleigh will never sustain its increase but this isn't an impending crisis. To "slowly hit rock bottom" is gong to take a good chunk of time. Bsides I can find 100 analysts who say the country will be n a severe depression in 5 years and I can find 100 analysts who say we'll be booming. Agent Analyst opinions are a dime a dozen.

9/27/2006 1:07:15 PM

I have to be careful on what data I release, because until our market reports come out I really can't say much.

I can say this much. I work in commercial. Commercial is where you can generally view the trends first. When your big investors slow down on buying and spending money in an area, you know there is a slight issue.

When doing market research 73% of for lease space is at less than 75% occupancy. That means that 73% of commercial building owners are paining right now...which means that roughly 50% of that 73% will be willing to place their property on the market. Out of state (our most prominent investors, have pulled their money out of a lot of major deals). If you would like a prime example...there is a place on Fayetville Street Mall right now called Crema (granted he broke a couple of rules in opening his business prior to permits)...investors still pulled out of his deal.

Raleigh is a declining market. You'll see soon enough.

9/27/2006 1:11:37 PM

If you're trying to claim that a purported decline in commercial real estate correlates to a decline in residential real estate (which I don't agree with), national data shows otherwise.

Despite the overall housing crash in progress, REITs such as ICF, IYR, RWR, and VNQ are still kicking ass, because they focus on the commercial rather than the residential arm of the real estate market. In other words, their gains and losses are more closely tied to the state of the U.S. economy than to the residential real estate market.

So if you're claiming a relationship between commercial and residential real estate, it would be a contrary one based on the country as a whole.

9/27/2006 1:26:08 PM

Well here is some residential data. When gas prices increased, foreclosure increased 62.7%, due to the Raleigh push about 10 years ago for the use of ARMs. Foreclosures bring down property value. You can look at Broadlands (off Capital and Trawick road). 14 foreclosures in about 6 months. Everyone was sitting around 130-140k, this time last year. Now, the homes are all selling for about 120-125k.

Thats just one example...I have others.

9/27/2006 1:35:06 PM

commercial is declining because its just waiting for residential to catch up. raleigh was just ranked the #1 area in the country for commercial investment. i trust forbes over you.

9/27/2006 1:37:48 PM

I think the main point here is that there is nothing in downtown raleigh to warrant paying that price for a dinky little condo. I'm sure it's nice, and I'm sure the view is awesome. I'm also sure that some people can afford that with no problem. But not many. Not enough to warrant all the places that are going up. I realize that the RBC towers are nice, but I'm talking about the market in general. This isn't atlanta. you're paying for a nice place with nothing around you except a few trendy bars.

9/27/2006 1:40:36 PM

....now. its amazing what just a couple of years of urban renewal can do to an area.

9/27/2006 1:42:02 PM

The push to clean up downtown Raleigh, will be greatly affected by nice places that draw people with more money.

[Edited on September 27, 2006 at 1:43 PM. Reason : haha, office mate is right.]

9/27/2006 1:42:58 PM

if i had the cash i'd get one of these. these will be worth a fortune in 10 years. that's my prediction.

9/27/2006 1:44:09 PM

Quote :

"If I am not mistaken, RBC Towers is one of the developments that is preventing investment/lease ownership. They actually are incorporating clauses into purchase contracts that allow ownership to be stripped from individuals who are not using the condos for residence."

A few of the downtown condo developments don't allow leasing. Its a smart move on the part of the developers.

9/27/2006 1:52:41 PM

Quote :

"lugging groceries from God knows where down the block and up 25 floors to your place."

That won't be a problem in the future. Eventually this company (or another like it) will be in every large city.

http://www.freshdirect.com/index.jsp

9/27/2006 1:53:54 PM

Quote :

"lugging groceries from God knows where down the block and up 25 floors to your place.""

...but thats the way it is in EVERY city...thats not specific to Raleigh...thats just a price you pay when you live in the city. if you want a driveway, go live in the suburbs or in the country.

9/27/2006 1:56:17 PM

worth a fortune? how much more do you think a 900 sq ft condo is gonna get? they're already about 300k. you think someone will pay 400k for a 900 sq ft condo? no fucking way. even when raleigh puts up some more shit, it's still going to be 15 years before it's anyting significant. Give me a stadium or something that's right there and maybe I'll think about shelling out that kind of money. But probably not.

9/27/2006 2:02:20 PM

Quote :

"Well here is some residential data. When gas prices increased, foreclosure increased 62.7%, due to the Raleigh push about 10 years ago for the use of ARMs. Foreclosures bring down property value. You can look at Broadlands (off Capital and Trawick road). 14 foreclosures in about 6 months. Everyone was sitting around 130-140k, this time last year. Now, the homes are all selling for about 120-125k. Thats just one example...I have others."

Ok, the problem here is

1) you're using commercial data to make assertions about the residential market. They are two completely separate markets that move based on different triggers.

2) You're applying data from the coolest part of the Triangle housing market (East Raleigh) to the entire area.

Now, I will agree that the growth in the RTP housing market is slowing. But we are nowhere near heading for a housing crash in the area.

And here are the key indicators that show why.

From: http://www.newsobserver.com/104/story/480175.html

"The numbers of people contracting to buy homes declined in July for the second consecutive month, although listings were up. And Wake County, which accounts for about two-thirds of the region's housing market, reported that the number of residential building permits fell nearly 24 percent."

"In the six-county region, which also includes Chatham and Franklin counties, lot sales have declined for two consecutive quarter and are down 2.3 percent for the year, according to Market Opportunity Research Enterprises of Rocky Mount, which tracks residential trends."

"Builders and industry experts said the Triangle has been shielded from the national downturn because home prices weren't driven up by speculators, as happened in some other markets."

"At the same time, mortgage interest rates have been gradually rising and are eliminating some potential buyers. Nationally, the average 30-year rate, which hit 6.48 percent last week after five successive weeks of declines, is about three-quarters of a point higher than a year ago."

The last two are especially telling. Housing appreciation in the triangle has primarily come from supply and demand. Homes in the most desirable school districts and proximity to RTP have especially helped. None of that is found in east raleigh, which has always been a poor performing part of the greater Triangle real estate market.

Secondly, most of the slowdown in growth comes from the fact that a large number of people have been priced out of ownership by the rising interest rates. Your point about foreclosures has more to do with the national mortgage bubble and the prevalent use of Jumbo ARMs and negative amortization loans that are rarely used in RTP, but are par for the course in the bay area, where only a small percentage of the population can afford the median priced home.

9/27/2006 2:05:31 PM

Quote :

"they're already about 300k"

by the way, where did you see this figure? I didn't find that on the website anywhere.

9/27/2006 2:08:17 PM

Quote :

"This isn't atlanta."

Not too long ago Atlanta wasn't even "atlanta"... shit happens fast.

Quote :

"Quote : "they're already about 300k" by the way, where did you see this figure? I didn't find that on the website anywhere."

Someone pulled it out of their ass on page 1. WRAL reported that condos are preselling for $200,000 so the logical assumption is that is the going rate for 883 sqft since it is the smallest option.

9/27/2006 2:55:42 PM

even though I have no proof of this, I can promise you that none of those places will sell for 200k. they will all be closer to 300k. I worked for LGFCU, who is building the condos right behind second empire (tall brick building. really nice. big windows) and they said the same thing "starting at 200k." but by the time the place was halfway under construction, the CHEAPEST one, which was also in the 850 sq ft range, was like 279k. the penthouses are over a million.

[Edited on September 27, 2006 at 3:17 PM. Reason : .]

9/27/2006 3:15:39 PM

Quote :

"The rate of the Traingle's population increase is still increasing... the real estate market is not going to decline. Agent opinions are a dime a dozen."

well using this logic everything should always go up! there are more people! so everything must cost more! yeah!





rent to own maybe, but fuck if i'll pony up 200k for less than 1000 sqft in fuckin' RALEIGH

9/27/2006 3:29:01 PM

another example are some of the ones here in durham, high crime rate, some are in poor locations, limited parking (into the rain!) for like 1700+ /month for 1700 sqft....

the location is convenient, that's it, it's on a very loud busy road, very close to the durham freeway, pretty high crime area, poor parking options, no gas stations near by and commercial property below you, and finally people living all around you above, below, to both sides....

you can BUILD a very good house for 100 sq/ft without any of the above hassel

9/27/2006 3:35:24 PM

Quote :

""Builders and industry experts said the Triangle has been shielded from the national downturn because home prices weren't driven up by speculators, as happened in some other markets.""

Maybe so, but the prices of condos damn sure was driven up by investors. There's also the issue of bad mortgages bringing forclosures.

[Edited on September 27, 2006 at 4:44 PM. Reason : ?]

9/27/2006 4:43:56 PM

Quote :

""lugging groceries from God knows where down the block and up 25 floors to your place."" ...but thats the way it is in EVERY city...thats not specific to Raleigh...thats just a price you pay when you live in the city. if you want a driveway, go live in the suburbs or in the country."

well most cities have many markets downtown. raleigh has some and will probobly have alot soon with all the dos going up

9/27/2006 10:55:00 PM

Those prices suck ass. Surrounding area is too cheap to make that worth it. Besides, it's not like being within the city is some huge fucking benefit.

9/28/2006 1:33:20 AM

Quote :

"well most cities have many markets downtown."

...and they also have many homes, most of which are not right next to markets.

my point was that he was complaining about city life in general, not anything specific to raleigh.

9/28/2006 8:30:16 AM

Quote :

"Raleigh is not small-time."

You lost all cerdibility with this statement. Travel around the fucking nation and you will see that Raleigh is in fact small-time. Someone earlier in this thread said that it's not like Raleigh is Atlanta.
Fuck, Raleigh isn't even Charlotte.

9/28/2006 9:01:12 AM

Quote :

"Travel around the fucking nation and you will see that Raleigh is in fact small-time. "

by your reasoning, you lose your credibility as well with this statement.

raleigh is by no means "big-time", but its certainly not "small-time" either.

9/28/2006 9:07:57 AM

regardless, they are nice, but over priced for the immediate areas and for the surrounding areas they are incredibly overpriced.

the 'market' here does not have anything like this for a reason, demand.

the demand for a place like this in this location isn't that high, as the down town area isn't super heavily developed to the point of a major US city yet.

fuck you can drive 15 minutes from the capital and see pastures....

9/28/2006 9:24:54 AM

Quote :

"lugging groceries from God knows where down the block and up 25 floors to your place."

Its too bad the building won't have elevators

9/28/2006 9:31:22 AM

them country folks arent used to those moving people boxes

9/28/2006 9:32:01 AM

Quote :

"Travel around the fucking nation and you will see that Raleigh is in fact small-time."

Just about every list I see ranking cities has Raleigh in the top 10.

9/28/2006 9:32:42 AM

^I've seen it in the "top 10 cities to live" or something like that but that is due to the cost of living being so low and nice weather, etc.

It has nothing to do with it being bigtime or small time.

9/28/2006 10:25:23 AM

when it's consistently on of the the best places to live - people that can afford the condos that are being built move here - hopefully that was his point

9/28/2006 10:26:46 AM

Oh I agree...I wouldn't mind investing on one of these. I think you would have to deal with negative return (Rent would be less than the mortgage) for a few years but the value would go up over time enough to get a good return. (10 years or so)

I'm just not sure I have that type of funds to know I'd be losing for a few years.

9/28/2006 11:38:49 AM

i have looked into the condo prices for most places around downtown and they do seem pretty high. but are they on average compared to other cities or are they REALLY overpriced?

i got family in the area, job in RTP, hate cary and suburban boring hell. if i'm in raleigh, downtown gets my vote. these condos do look nice.

9/28/2006 11:41:55 AM

FYI:

Quote :

"One bedroom units range from $218,000 to $377,000 Two bedroom units range from $321,000 to $596,000. Three bedroom units range from $541,000 to $745,000 depending on view and floor. "

9/28/2006 1:57:24 PM

Damn, the 3 bedrooms are way less than I would have expected.

9/28/2006 2:01:55 PM

I want one.

9/28/2006 2:03:27 PM

I'm pretty sure the same people that bash something like this with comments like "zomg 25 floors to get to your car" also think its a great idea to buy a big house in-the-fucking-middle-of-nowhere-Garner, NC just because, well, its big.

Downtown is actually a pretty sweet place to get a house and as far as other US Downtown's go, isn't too terribly hard to access the highway.

Now, for the average TWW who wakes up at 9am to go to work at 9:30, it probably won't be ideal. However, anyone thats been downtown at 7am knows there's virtually nobody on the roads so you could potentially access anywhere in the Wake Co area, including RTP.

Its not the kind of place you'd want to live for the rest of your life, but it is the kind of place that could potentially net you a lot over the long run. 200k Isn't that bad at all, especially when shit houses built 2inches from each other in Cary go for 300K+.

Furthermore, I don't think Raleigh's expansion is going to stop anytime soon since this area and this state is really nice compared to other states. I know i bitch about there being no metro life here, but everything else such as environment, safety, traffic etc. are golden compared to a big city.

9/28/2006 2:20:38 PM

Quote :

"Its not the kind of place you'd want to live for the rest of your life, but it is the kind of place that could potentially net you a lot over the long run. 200k Isn't that bad at all, especially when shit houses built 2inches from each other in Cary go for 300K+."

I wasn't referring to cary.... that place is even worse....

i just don't see the time saving benefit being big enough to justify spending a hell of a lot more per sqft to live in a shoebox stack...

like you said the downtown is easily accessible from and to the highway, thus, people can come in from the highway just as easily as they can get on it....

now this is considered very cheap when compared to manhatten but this it Raleigh, with about 9 million less people crammed into several times more space....

Raleigh probably has another 50-100 years before it merges into Durham and Chapel Hill... at that point this would be a very attractive offer... but most jobs in the area are not in downtown Raleigh...



urban sprawl hasn't changed much in the last 50 years chief, they just did a topographic study of it.... American cities aren't sprawling, they are just getting bigger (more of the same)

[Edited on September 28, 2006 at 2:41 PM. Reason : job location]

9/28/2006 2:39:25 PM

Quote :

"i just don't see the time saving benefit being big enough to justify spending a hell of a lot more per sqft to live in a shoebox stack..."

living in a city environment isnt just about saving time....its just a completely different feel, one that some people prefer over the suburbs or country. some people would simply rather live in a condo then a house.

i, personally, would rather live in an urban environment and pay more per sqft, then pay the same amount for a big house. i dont care about having tons of space...that isnt important to me.

9/28/2006 2:43:39 PM

uhhh, there really isn't much of a 'vibe' change from downtown to the nice houses inside the belt line...

admittedly a little but it's not worth the loss of space....

I'd laugh at you if you bought one of these..... or rented one...

9/28/2006 3:13:19 PM

would you really laugh? is that what you would do? laugh? like LOL laugh?

WOULD YOU ACTUALLY LAUGH OUT LOUD?

9/28/2006 3:14:52 PM

^^ there's nothing wrong with not liking the idea of living in a downtown condo... personal preferences and all that. But if you're implying that based on your own preferences, that it's a bad idea to build them at all, then well, you're wrong.

9/28/2006 3:20:58 PM

not saying it's a bad idea, i'm all for city living, the price they are offering them at though is about 25 - 30% too high for the market.... (just a wild guess really)

9/28/2006 3:31:16 PM

my made up numbers say they are actually below market value by 3-6%

9/28/2006 3:33:52 PM