just fyi...

Quote :

"If you review the delegate figures, you can only arrive at one conclusion: It is now basically mathematically impossible for either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama to win the Democratic presidential nomination through the regular voting process (meaning the super-delegates decide this one, baby!). Here's the math. There are 3,253 pledged delegates, those doled out based on actual voting in primaries and caucuses. And you need 2,025 to win the nomination. To date, about 52 percent of those 3,253 delegates have been pledged in the voting process -- with Clinton and Obama roughly splitting them at 832 and 821 delegates a piece, according to the AP. That means there are now only about 1,600 delegates left up for grabs in the remaining states and territories voting. So, do the math. If they both have 820 plus pledged delegates so far, they'll need to win roughly 1,200 -- 75 percent -- of the remaining 1,600 delegates to win the nomination through actual voting. "

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/02/07/no_knockouts_from_here_to_the.html

2/7/2008 9:39:07 PM

that being known, do we think there is a chance he can do that? If all feburary we talk about Obama's wins, does Clinton have the chance to break back through in March?

just hypothetical. I dont think it will happen, but maybe it can if Clinton really cannot afford to play with the big kids anymore.

?

2/7/2008 9:44:05 PM

I don't think he does... But HRC is stretched super thin. The fact that she had to put a 5mil loan in and wasnt paying senior staff for a little while (She is apparently spending like it's going out of style according to a former staffer that I work with now)

I think it goes to Convention, which sucks for the Senate campaigns that I work with....

2/7/2008 9:49:34 PM

State's Superdelegates Could Turn Presidential Tide

Quote :

"Raleigh — North Carolina voters could have a lot of say in this year's Democratic presidential nomination, a change from the state's usual role late in the primary process. Typically, by the time the state's primary rolls around, the front-runners are a foregone conclusion. This year, though, the tight race between U.S. Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois for the Democratic nomination could keep either from holding a majority of delegates by the state's May 6 primary. If so, the state's 134 Democratic delegates could make a difference for the first time in 20 years. Some of those delegates don't have to vote the way the state votes. They are called 'superdelegates' and they get to vote however they want. 'They are really uncommitted delegates,' Peace College political professor David McLennan said. Superdelegates make up about 20 percent of delegates. 'That's a very significant portion of the voting delegates at the convention, so they could literally make or break the nominee.' McLennan said. North Carolina has 19 superdelegates. Two will be elected at the state convention in June. Nine are Democratic National Committee members. Seven are members of Congress, and one is Gov. Mike Easley. Some listeners thought Easley signaled during a speech Wednesday whom he would vote for. 'I hope the federal government will play a bigger role as we move into the next presidency, and I think she will,' he said. The governor later said he didn't mean he was supporting Clinton, however. 'Oh, no. I'm not making any endorsements. (Former) Senator (John) Edwards has been in this thing right up until now,' he said. Many of the superdelegates had been planning to vote for Edwards before he dropped out. U.S. Rep. G.K. Butterfield and Everett Ward said they will vote for Obama. Susan Burgess said she will vote for Clinton. WRAL also talked with U.S. Reps. Mel Watt and Brad Miller, both of whom are undecided. Democratic National Committee members Carol Peterson, Jerry Meek and David Parker told WRAL they were undecided, too. Congressman Bob Etheridge said he will support the nominee. Most of the undecided superdelegates said they are already being courted by a candidate. 'So this is the one year where we might see them play a huge role,' McLennan said. The Republican Party also has uncommitted delegates at its National Convention. However, most analysts expect the primaries will have determined the nominee before then."

http://www.wral.com/news/local/politics/story/2404967/

2/8/2008 2:23:40 AM

Good article summerizing this weekend's races:

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080208/D8ULSO1G1.html

A somewhat interesting aspect is that Huckabee probably has a shot to win all 3 races (Washington, Kansas, Louisiana)

All three states are hybrid of proportional and winner-take-all. If one candidates wins all three races with around 55% of the vote, they should take about 65 of the 74 delegates.

2/8/2008 12:26:19 PM

Many Democrats will whine about anything--including their own processes. Donna Brazile has threatened to quit the party if the delegate votes don't reflect the will of the people or some such.

Not to mention Florida and Michigan.

2/11/2008 11:23:33 AM

Wouldn't it be ironic if the Democratic candidate was noiminated against the desires of the majority of voters in the Democratic primary? *cough*2000*cough*

2/11/2008 1:17:29 PM

^ Exactly.

2/11/2008 1:49:35 PM

^^not going to happen. The party bosses know that if they were to do that, voter turn out in November by Democrats would be low and down ballot contests would be hurt. Whomever gets the popular vote will be the nominee.

2/11/2008 1:53:26 PM

^ (1) Because your record of predictions is so good[/sarcasm]? And (2) you underestimate the power of the Clinton Machine.

2/11/2008 2:13:25 PM

You over estimate the Clinton machine. The state level super delegates are more concerned about their local democratic candidates.

and well, you are just a foamie tard who thinks there is some major conspiracy to secure Clinton the nomination no matter what.

2/11/2008 2:21:31 PM

^ You're so naive--like a wide-eyed doe in a new forest. It's not a "conspiracy"--it's the way the process works.

Bill and Hillary Clinton are burning up the phone lines and other channels calling in every IOU from Chappaqua to Chula Vista--Obama has even said as much. Hillary is repositioning and gearing up for the battle--the replacement of her campaign head is evidence of this. The Clintons aren't going to settle for second place.

2/11/2008 2:38:47 PM

No shit they are calling people and trying to get their support. that doesn't mean the super delegates are going to do something that will harm the party in their home state. the majority of the super delegates have far more important things to think about. Namely down ballot contests. do you honestly think someone like Jerry Meek would purposefully risk democratic majorities and democratic control of this state in order to pay off a debt to the Clintons? do you realize what that would mean? Yes, the Clinton do no want to settle for second, neither does Barack Obama.

democratic leaders in purple states will not want to risk disenfranchising a large segment of their voter base. It is unheard of and completely stupid.

Now begone with your retarded, "OMG THE CLINTON'S ARE EVIL" bullshit.

2/11/2008 2:46:40 PM

If Obama gets more than a slight chunk of the popular vote you better bet the (majority of) SD will vote for him. While Clinton may have many favors to call in the Democratic party will not stand for SD's deciding the outcome against a strong popular vote.


Now if they're within 20-30 delegates of each other things may get VERY interesting.

2/11/2008 2:48:01 PM

^^ YOU are the one that brought up "evil" and "Clintons" in the same breath--not me. Maybe YOU were thinking it. BTW, STFU.

^^ and ^ You have no sense of history and no real understanding of the process at issue or old-time politics--and the Clintons are old-time politicians. And you underestimate the pursuit of graft by some superdelegates. In any event, my thesis is not an original one: there were in-depth discussions of this very issue this morning on The Diane Rehm Show; on the Sunday TV shows; and a number of other places, including in this report:

Superdelegates To Clinton's Rescue?
The Nation: Close Race Puts Vestige Of Machine Politics In The Spotlight

Quote :

"By 1980 the party establishment had seen enough. It struck back with a commission of its own, led by North Carolina Governor James Hunt. It returned power to elected officials and party regulars — the superdelegates, who will make up about 20 percent of the 4,049 delegates at the Democratic convention. They include all Democratic members of Congress and every governor, but roughly half of them are Democratic National Committee officials elected by state parties, who range from top party operatives to local city council members. Key interests in the party, like labor groups, can also name superdelegates. According to political scientist Rhodes Cook, superdelegates were created as a 'firewall to blunt any party outsider that built up a head of steam in the primaries' [emphasis added]. That's what happened in 1984, when Senator Gary Hart launched an insurgent challenge to front-runner Walter Mondale. Hart won sixteen state primaries and caucuses to Mondale's ten, and barely lost the popular vote. Yet Mondale locked up virtually all the party's 700 or so superdelegates even before the primary began. Hart likely would have lost anyway, but the superdelegates sealed his defeat. 'I got almost none of them, because [Mondale] was considered inevitable,' Hart told me. The obvious beneficiary of the superdelegates this time around is another establishment favorite, Hillary Clinton. Before Super Tuesday, Obama had sixty-three pledged delegates, compared with Clinton's forty-eight. But as we went to press Clinton had a huge advantage in superdelegates, 184 to ninety-five, according to CNN. 'Many of the superdelegates were in and out of the Clinton White House, invited to dinners, have received contributions from Clinton allies,' says Hart, who has endorsed Obama. 'There will be pressure brought to bear to cash in those chips' [emphasis added]. Clinton has a wealth of contacts to tap, in the party and in her campaign [emphasis added]. There's the former president himself, of course, and Clinton's campaign chair, Terry McAuliffe, who ran the DNC from 2001 to 2005, and a top Clinton surrogate, Harold Ickes, who serves on the DNC's influential rules committee. The Clintons are working hard to bring the large bloc of uncommitted superdelegates into the senator's camp. 'I know Hillary is calling superdelegates regularly, which is a smart play,' says Art Torres, California Democratic Party chair. Interviews with superdelegates in Alabama, California, Colorado and Massachusetts — a random sample of February 5 states — illustrate this close attention. After Ramona Martinez, a Denver city councilwoman, switched her support from Bill Richardson to Clinton, she received immediate thank-you calls from McAuliffe and Clinton adviser Ann Lewis. In Alabama 'Hillary would get the majority of the superdelegates,' predicts state party chair Joe Turnham. 'A lot of it is longstanding relationships. People go back to the 1980s with Bill Clinton, when he first came to Alabama' [emphasis added]. There's often a disconnect between the choices of rank-and-file Democrats and the preferences of superdelegates [emphasis added]. In Colorado, Martinez admits, 'Obama has a lot more troops on the ground.' Obama is expected to do well in Alabama, whose African-American population matches South Carolina's. Even so, the Obama campaign argues that the tally among superdelegates is closer than reported in the media — and that the so-called uncommitted delegates lean his way. 'Bill and Hillary got what they could,' says a senior Obama campaign adviser who spoke on condition of anonymity. 'They picked the low- to-midhanging fruit. The rest of the superdelegates remain neutral or undecided and may be resistant to the Clinton pull.'"

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/02/01/opinion/main3779674.shtml

2/11/2008 3:13:29 PM

Sure, it isn't an original thought and it is a flawed though in this case. We don't have a Wallace, running and there isn't some populist socialist running either. Those are the types of people the superdelegates were designed to keep out. Not a viable general election candidate. and in classic slobberingsaw manner, you pull up an outdated article to support your thesis. and nice job only bolding the parts that support your thesis and completely ignoring the parts that refute it. You are a classic foamie.

The party will not risk another '68.

and the evil clintons is very much implied from your posts in this forum. Everyone knows you hold them up to be some sort of evil genius in the democratic party.

Do you honestly think the Clinton's are more Democratic Machine than the Kennedys? And do you honestly think the Clintons will be able to bully the likes of Jimmy Carter, Tip O'Neil, Dick Gephardt, etc.

[Edited on February 11, 2008 at 3:28 PM. Reason : .]

[Edited on February 11, 2008 at 3:29 PM. Reason : .]

2/11/2008 3:22:20 PM

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/350829_trail11.html?source=mypi

Quote :

"Huckabee's campaign released a statement saying that it will be exploring all available legal options regarding the "dubious final results." Arizona Sen. McCain was announced as the victor in the caucuses. Sunday, he had 25 percent of the vote; Huckabee had 23.8 percent."

So the story, from what I have heard, goes like this. The top dog Republican in Washington, some dude named Esser, calls off the counting and claims a Mccain victory with 13% of the precincts still not reporting. At the time, McCain was leading by 1.5% and it was his first lead of the night. When asked how he arrived at the decision to call it, he admitted to not even knowing what precincts had not reported.

I had never really paid attention before, but it sickens me how undemocratic our primary elections actually are.

2/11/2008 3:32:09 PM

^^ "[O]utdated article"? It's from February 2008 and we've not even reached the middle of the month yet! In any event, the process I'm referring to has been around for decades--and the backroom deals even longer.

Quote :

"And you underestimate the pursuit of graft by some superdelegates."

And "bully[ing]"? WTF are you talking about? Perhaps you're having flashbacks to your days on the school playground. Do you even know what "graft" means?

1. Quit while you're behind. You've offered nothing other than your ill-informed opinion to support your position.

2. Stop with the ad homs--show some self-control for a change.

2/11/2008 3:45:00 PM

you complaining about ad homs. How very cute.

That article is from before super tuesday. that is ages in an election cycle. Why not pull up something from Iowa to talk about election predictions. Here is a hint, it doesn't mean shit.

I chose to ignore your statement about bribery because it is pure lunacy. Look at the facts, Bill clinton tried to bully Ted Kennedy, look at where it got him.

But in the end, your entire argument boils down to: "I'm older than you, shut up."

Instead of continuing to play in dream land, why don't you back up your statements with real facts instead of opinions. Barack Obama is not a Jesse Jackson, Lyndon LaRouche, or George Wallce, candidates who are examples of why superdelegates were created. Obama has already picked up the support of Party Machine members, he isn't a populist the Democratic party would try to keep away. If Obama wins a plurality of pledged delegates, the Super Delegates will not take it away from him. You have nothing to suggest they would. Super Delegates are not interested in destroying their State party/losing their jobs.

So go back to making your tinfoil hat and leave the discussion to people who are actually willing to discuss it in a civilized manner. All you have to offer is selective bolding, the age card, and a deep mistrust of the clintons and the Democratic party.

2/11/2008 4:05:10 PM

^

Quote :

"But in the end, your nutsmackr's entire argument boils down to: 'I'm older than you I work at the General Assembly, shut up.'"

Fixed. And, yeah, political payoffs never happen.[/sarcasm]

Now this:

Quote :

"foamie tard"

Quote :

"Now begone with your retarded, 'OMG THE CLINTON'S ARE EVIL' bullshit."

Quote :

"in classic slobberingsaw manner"

Quote :

"You are a classic foamie."

nutsmackr

"[C]ivilized"? Yeah, right.

And you don't seem to understand who superdelegates actually are; they aren't just elected officials--they're party activists and leaders, too, with varying agendas. And unlike pledged delegates secured through a primary or a caucus, superdelegates can vote for whomever they choose, and they are not required to vote for the candidate they endorse--and if you'll just bother to listen to Hillary, she wants the superdelegates to vote independently.

In other words, if Hillary's ass gets in a sling, which is looking quite likely, she wants the superdelegates to vote for her--independent of the people's will, get it?

Quote :

"'My strong belief is that if we end up with the most states and the most pledged delegates, and the most voters in the country, then it would be problematic for political insiders to overturn the judgment of the voters,' [Obama] said. 'I think that should be the guiding approach to determining who will be the nominee.' Clinton, speaking to reporters on Saturday, argued that superdelegates should make up their own minds and pointedly noted that Obama has the endorsements of superdelegates John Kerry and Edward Kennedy, both senators from Massachusetts, a state whose primary Clinton won. 'Superdelegates are by design supposed to exercise independent judgment,' she said. 'If Senator Obama and his campaign continue to push this position, which is to the contrary of what the definition of superdelegates has historically been, I will look forward to receiving the support of Senator Kerry and Senator Kennedy' [emphasis added]."

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g90V8XQZSWr4K1yzT-vNrffP9wNQD8UNRE5O0

[Edited on February 11, 2008 at 4:52 PM. Reason : .]

2/11/2008 4:48:17 PM

What does my occupation have to do with anything? You seem a little obsessed about it. Right now your entire argument has focused around bribery and your wealth of knowledge. And we all know Hillary wants the Super Delegates to vote for her. It doesn't take a degree in Rocket Surgery to figure that one out. And there is a big difference in wanting someone to do something and someone actually doing what they want you to do. I know Barack Obama wants every super delegate to vote for him, but fat chance getting Terry McCauliffe and Bill Clinton to do so.

Quote :

"And you don't seem to understand who superdelegates actually are; they aren't just elected officials--they're party activists and leaders, too, with varying agendas."

I know full well who super delegates are. I even happened to mention a party leader by name. So why don't you grow up and start acting your age instead of your shoe size.

and answer my question:

Quote :

"do you honestly think someone like Jerry Meek would purposefully risk democratic majorities and democratic control of this state in order to pay off a debt to the Clintons?"

[Edited on February 11, 2008 at 5:02 PM. Reason : .]

2/11/2008 4:57:53 PM

goddamnit, will you idiots stop contaminating this thread?

2/11/2008 5:02:11 PM

^^

Quote :

"I even know a few of them myself."

Some of my best friends are. . . .

Quote :

"So why don't you grow up and start acting your age instead of your shoe size."

Are you serious with that post? You need help, man.

In any event, I've supported my positions with something, at least. You have done nothing of the sort. Judges, can I get a ruling here?

^ Um. . .I've posted serious commentary--and I resent any implication to the contrary. If nutsmackr would simply stop the madness, everything would be fine.


[Edited on February 11, 2008 at 5:06 PM. Reason : .]

2/11/2008 5:03:18 PM

Quote :

"In any event, I've supported my positions with something, at least. You have done nothing of the sort. Judges, can I get a ruling here?"

Your something here is an article about the history of super delegates, a quote by Hillary Clinton, insinuations of bribery by the Clintons, and you classic game of "I'm older than you, therefore, I am right."

2/11/2008 5:06:00 PM

^ Wrong--again. This is what I think you're referring to:

Quote :

"You have no sense of history and no real understanding of the process at issue or old-time politics--and the Clintons are old-time politicians."

This understanding is available to any person with the desire and faculties to seek it, regardless of age.

2/12/2008 5:03:13 AM

Quote :

"goddamnit, will you idiots stop contaminating this thread?"

There is a reason people stay away from TSB.

2/12/2008 6:26:44 AM

^^Once again, we are back to your old schtick of "you're not as smert as me. rawr."

Here is an idea, fuck off. What is your experience? A halfwit TA in the English Department and 20 years as a correctional officer? Yeah, you really know politics.

[Edited on February 12, 2008 at 10:05 AM. Reason : .]

2/12/2008 10:04:34 AM

Quote :

"^^ Um. . .I've posted serious commentary--and I resent any implication to the contrary. If nutsmackr would simply stop the madness, everything would be fine."

^ Wrong on all points--again.

2/12/2008 4:50:38 PM

serious commentary is not taking quotes out of context and then coming up with some sort of illuminati conspiracy. Why don't you go back to the bridge and wait for the Billy Goats Gruff.

2/12/2008 5:29:36 PM

^ Why don't you tell everyone how you've met me before--even though you haven't.

2/12/2008 6:18:26 PM

2/12/2008 7:17:05 PM

THANKS FOR RUINING THE THREAD YOU TWO

Hucakbee is crushing tonight

2/12/2008 7:26:39 PM

I wouldn't be to sure of that prediction. We still have Maryland and DC, both of which should go McCain.

McCain was hurt in VA by independents and moderate republicans (his base) voting in the Democratic primary.

2/12/2008 7:29:38 PM

They've already called VA for Obama, not surprised at all, but they called it within about 2 seconds of the polls closing here.

2/12/2008 7:36:58 PM

Well yeah, McCain should win DC and MD, but that Huckabee seems to have erased a 10 point deficit in VA from earlier in the week is interesting at least

[Edited on February 12, 2008 at 7:44 PM. Reason : ambiguous pronouns]

2/12/2008 7:43:45 PM

yea mccain and huckabee are close in VA now...

they just extended the polls in Maryland by 90 minutes because of the jacked up weather and inability of MDOT to get off their asses and salt the roads

2/12/2008 7:46:18 PM

turnout in VA seems to be the issue to this point - McCain is mopping up in Alexandria as expected, but if the numbers hold up it looks like about equal vote numbers in Alexandria as Augusta County, even though Alexandria has 2 1/2 times the population.

2/12/2008 7:48:38 PM

the weather is going to affect the VA numbers a lot...a lot of people were hoping that they would keep the polls open another hour or so, but alas....

2/12/2008 7:51:46 PM

just called VA for McCain... I'm a little bit surprised about that...

2/12/2008 8:33:47 PM

Obama now, officially, has more delegates than Clinton. 1215 to 1190.

2/12/2008 11:59:15 PM

Romney is endorsing McCain...that actually surprises me

2/14/2008 1:49:23 PM

Former Republican Senator Endorses Barack Obama
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=19052919

Former Rhode Island Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee endorsed Democratic candidate Barack Obama on Thursday, setting the groundwork for a fight in the upcoming Rhode Island primary on March 4.

"I believe Senator Obama is the best candidate to restore American credibility, to restore our confidence, to be moral and just, and to bring people together to solve the complex issues such as the economy, the environment and global stability," Chafee said.

2/15/2008 1:23:19 PM